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GOP pickups: GA PA

Election Results: Rising Star Likely to Fall

We made a couple of election-related mistakes this week. First, we miscalculated the date of the Tennessee primaries; they were yesterday, not today. Second, Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) has said that if Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-VT) seat were to come open, he (Scott) would appoint a Democrat or an independent to fill it. So, the Senator is in a position to serve until a ripe old age without risk of pulling an RBG.

Given the general redness of Tennessee, there isn't all that much interesting news out of yesterday's primaries. But there's a little:

That's it out of Tennessee. Next in line, on Tuesday, are Kansas (House), Michigan (Senate and House) and Missouri and Washington (Senate, House and Governor). (Z)

Free at Last: Biden Administration Executes Giant Prisoner Exchange

This certainly came out of left field. Yesterday, it was announced that the Biden administration, working in concert with the governments of Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway and Turkey, had secured the release of 16 people from Russian prisons.

The headliners here, at least in the U.S., are American journalist Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan. Gershkovich, who is well endowed in the spinal department, was required (as all the prisoners were) to write a personal letter asking Vladimir Putin for clemency. In it, the journalist suggested that he and the Russian president sit down for an interview before Gershkovich leaves the country.

Also released were a pair of journalists of Russian heritage who had established residency in the United States, five German citizens, and seven Russian dissidents. In exchange, the U.S., Germany, and the other nations released and returned eight Russians who were murderers, spies, or murderous spies. The most notorious is Vadim Krasikov, who killed former Chechen fighter Zelimkhan "Tornike" Khangoshvili in broad daylight in a Berlin café, and was convicted of first-degree murder in a German court.

By all indications, the 16 people freed by the Russians yesterday weren't criminal, and were put in prison for political purposes. Meanwhile, the 8 Russians who were freed were legitimately convicted. As is the case under these circumstances, there was some hand-wringing about letting the bad guys go, thus meaning they largely got away with their crimes. Our view, such as it is, is that a 2-to-1 swap that frees 16 innocents is a worthwhile deal. Clearly, Putin wanted these particular bad guys back in the fold. But if he hadn't been able to get them, he has an endless supply of alternative potential bad guys. So, it's not like the world really became a less safe place yesterday.

Not surprisingly, the loudest complaints yesterday came from Donald Trump. He hopped on his rapidly sinking (see below) social media platform to share his views:

So when are they going to release the details of the prisoner swap with Russia? How many people do we get versus them? Are we also paying them cash? Are they giving us cash (Please withdraw that question, because I'm sure the answer is NO)? Are we releasing murderers, killers, or thugs? Just curious because we never make good deals, at anything, but especially hostage swaps. Our "negotiators" are always an embarrassment to us! I got back many hostages, and gave the opposing Country NOTHING - and never any cash. To do so is bad precedent for the future. That's the way it should be, or this situation will get worse and worse. They are extorting the United States of America. They're calling the trade "complex" - That's so nobody can figure out how bad it is!

Several Trump acolytes took it in a different direction, decreeing that the prisoner exchange was actually a victory for Trump. For example, J.D. Vance said: "But we have to ask ourselves, why are they coming home. And I think it's because bad guys all over the world recognize Donald Trump's about to be back in office, so they're cleaning house. That's a good thing. And I think it's a testament to Donald Trump's strength." To take another example, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), who maybe hasn't figured out yet that he's not the VP pick (or who thinks he might still be the VP pick, given Vance's troubles), said: "[T]he reason why Russia wanted to do this deal now is they think that President Trump's going to win and they don't want to deal with him."

It is not too surprising that Team Trump is responding as they are. From where we sit, there are two, and maybe three lessons that emerge from the hostage swap, and none of them are good for Trump:

  1. A Repudiation of Trumpian Diplomacy: We don't know if "Trumpian" is a word, as yet, but we're going with it. Looking first at specifics, one of Trump's campaign promises has been that, if elected, he would bring Gershkovich and Whelan home. Maybe so, but as Joe Biden observed in response to a question from a reporter yesterday: "Why didn't he do it when he was president?" It's a fair point; Gershkovich was detained after Trump left office, but Whelan has been in custody since 2018. In any event, one of Trump's favorite campaign planks is busted.

    Meanwhile, considering things more broadly, this is also a defeat for Trump's approach to foreign relations. If he achieved anything, in terms of foreign policy, with his alleged skills as a dealmaker, we're struggling to remember what that might be. He withdrew from treaties, he slapped tariffs on China, he moved the U.S. embassy in Israel, and he played patty cake with Kim Jong-Un, but what deals did he make?

  2. An Affirmation of Bidenian Diplomacy: We definitely don't know if Bidenian is a word, but we are once again going with it. Anyhow, at the same time that the exchange is a poke in the eye for the Trumpian approach to diplomacy, it's a huge win for the Bidenian approach. There are three things about this deal that are not at all characteristic of Trump's way of doing things. First, it required a lot of patience. Trump has none. Second, it required that things be kept on the down-low; the deal was actually consummated on July 21, but everyone kept quiet until yesterday. Trump would be shouting from the highest rooftop as soon as a deal was made, even if it risked spoiling the arrangements. Third, and finally, it involved significant international cooperation. Trump is an America First (and America alone) isolationist.

  3. Putin's Thinking: The first two points seem indisputable to us. This third point is the "maybe," although we feel pretty confident about it, too. We haven't the faintest idea what would have happened on the prisoner-exchange front had yesterday's release not happened, and had Trump been reelected in November. It is possible that something would have happened (probably on terms more favorable to Putin). But maybe nothing would have happened. Again, it's not like Trump managed to make any progress on this front when he was in office the first time.

    In any case, Putin surely knows that Kamala Harris is as suspicious of him as Biden is. And he also knows that a lame-duck president has more leeway to negotiate politically risky deals than a non lame-duck. So, if the White House is going to remain under Democratic control, Putin's best window of opportunity is right now. Put another way, it sure looks like Putin has examined his crystal ball, and decided that Harris could very well win this thing. If so, then best to negotiate now. Sure, the Russian could hold out for a Trump presidency, and then hope that he might be able to pull Trump's strings successfully. But those are both maybes, and you know what they say about a bird in the hand.

This story probably won't play a big role in the November elections. But it probably won't have zero impact, either. Again, it's a pretty good object lesson in which approach to international diplomacy works, and which does not. (Z)

In Congress: Right Now, Every Bill Is a Messaging Bill

As you might have heard, the Republicans control one chamber of Congress and, thanks to the filibuster, can block almost anything they want in the other chamber. Given the proximity of the election, the GOP doesn't want to pass ANY bill that might do anything substantive, for fear of giving a "victory" to the Democrats, and thus a potential boost to the Kamala Harris campaign.

Yesterday, there were, in effect, two examples of this, both in the Senate. First up, and as we expected, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced that he would bring the No Kings Act up for a vote. Recall that is the legislation that would amend the Constitution to make clear that, no, presidents cannot break the law with impunity. It didn't even come up for a vote in the House, and it surely won't pass the Senate. However, Congressional Republicans will be doubly on the record as supporting an imperial/dictatorial presidency. And, as we noted previously, Biden could put the matter back in the headlines again by deliberately doing something meant to illustrate the dangers of an unfettered presidency.

Meanwhile, yesterday Schumer brought up a bill that would have raised the child tax credit, ended the Employee Retention Tax Credit program (which has witnessed all kinds of fraud), and reinstated other tax credits for businesses. The bill is bipartisan, having been written by a Democrat (Ron Wyden of Oregon) and a Republican (Jason Smith of Missouri), and having already passed the House by a large margin. But it failed a procedural vote in the Senate, 44-48.

The vote on the tax bill did not break down entirely along partisan lines. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Rick Scott (R-FL) and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) voted for it, and two of the four independents who caucus with the Democrats, namely Bernie Sanders and Joe Manchin (I-WV), voted against it. Still, it's close enough to a party-line vote that the Republicans will get to own the non-passage of the bill. And we suspect it will be boiled down to "The Republicans don't want families to get a tax break, no matter what they might tell you on the campaign trail." (Z)

Another Look: Is There Any Method to Trump's Wild Statements?

Yesterday, we had an item about Donald Trump's interview at the National Association of Black Journalists, writing: "It did not go well" and "This whole thing was an unforced error that is going to cost Trump Black votes."

We got some pushback on that from readers. For example, J.W. in Seattle, WA, wrote: "He is not trying to win Black votes. His 'performance' was for his base, who will enjoy him disrespecting Black folks." M.M. in San Diego, CA, agreed: "Trump's real audience at the National Association of Black Journalists' convention was his base, especially the racist segment, i.e., the deplorables. He was showing them how brave he was going straight into the big, scary Black lions' den, standing up to them, unafraid of insulting them to their faces, and telling them exactly how he feels about Black people. Such a courageous hero, putting all those Black DEI 'journalists' in their place!" There were also some opinion pieces yesterday making more-or-less this same argument, such as this one from The Bulwark, this one from The New Yorker and this one from TPM.

We have spent another 24 hours thinking about it, and... we just aren't buying that this was kabuki theater for racists. Here are our reasons:

Our assessment of what happened is this: Trump knows he needs Black votes, and he also knows that he's less likely to get them up against a Black woman than a white man. And so, he's decided that his best hope is to convince Black Americans that she's not really one of them. The problem here is that this is a pretty offensive judgment for a white guy to make, particularly in front of an audience of Black people. And when it started to go poorly, Trump reverted to "defense" mode, and started lashing out. It does not help that he has, by all indications, lost some of his mental agility, and so is not in a great position to choose his words well.

Even after reading all this, readers might reach their own conclusions, and decide that J.W. and M.M. and all the op-ed writers have the right of it. Fair enough. But keep one other thing in mind: In 2020 (a little) and in 2016 (a lot), everyone (including us) kept falling victim to the notion that Trump was playing 3-D chess, and that there was some deep, strategic plan to the crazy things he said and did. It turns out there was no 3-D chess in 2016, or in 2020, and we don't know why anything would be different now. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and sometimes an unhinged racist is just an unhinged racist. (Z)

VanceWatch 2024: VP Candidate Can't Duck His Past... or His Present

We don't mean to keep beating a dead horse, but J.D. Vance's debut on the national stage continues to go very poorly.

There is a well-worn observation about The Simpsons, that the show's vast archive of past content (close to 400 hours) has something for every occasion. For example, the episode where Lisa Simpson envisions herself as the nation's first female president:

Lisa Simpson in a purple blazer and pearls; Kamala Harris in a purple blazer and pearls.

By the way, she becomes president by replacing... Donald Trump.

It would seem there is a corollary phenomenon, where, no matter the occasion, J.D. Vance has said something offensive about it. The greatest American hero of the Olympic games so far (and yes, believe it or not, she looks like she's walking on air) is probably the gymnast Simone Biles. Her successes in Paris this year represent something of a redemption story, because she was compelled to withdraw from most of her events in Tokyo due to the gymnast's version of the yips (she lost her sense of space, and so could not safely perform her acrobatics). Vance, who thinks he is the only person on the planet who has ever worked hard, was highly critical of Biles' decision: "I think it reflects pretty poorly on our sort of therapeutic society that we try to praise people, not for moments of strength... but for their weakest moments." Yes, the last thing the U.S. wants to be is a country that supports people when they're down.

And even if past J.D. Vance were a saint, present J.D. Vance still has plenty of baggage. For example, it was reported yesterday that he has a six-figure investment in Rumble. Rumble is YouTube for right-wingers who don't like YouTube's terms of service. Consequently, Rumble is absolutely chock full of white supremacist and neo-Nazi content. Can you imagine what would happen if it was discovered that, say, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) had a six-figure investment in such a site?

And if someone is willing to give him a pass on the Rumble investment, figuring that it's not Vance who is creating the content, there's also this. Alt-right pundits Jack Posobiec, Joshua Lisec, and Steve Bannon have a new book out called Unhumans: The Secret History of Communist Revolutions (and How to Crush Them). It is a book that celebrates the brutal regimes of people like Augusto Pinochet and Francisco Franco, and says that the "lessons" of those regimes can be applied usefully to the present-day United States.

You get three guesses as to which U.S. Senator loves the book, and the first two don't count. That's right; here's Vance's blurb from the cover of the book:

In the past, communists marched in the streets waving red flags. Today, they march through HR [Human Resources], college campuses, and courtrooms to wage lawfare against good, honest people. In Unhumans, Jack Posobiec and Joshua Lisec reveal their plans and show us what to do to fight back.

One reviewer writes: "[Unhuman] is perhaps the most paranoid, hateful, and terrifying book I have ever picked up. (I say this as someone who has read Mein Kampf.)"

Thanks to the constant supply of dirty laundry, Vance's approval numbers continue to crater. He's currently at 28% favorable, 44% unfavorable, which means he's 16 points underwater. Trump insiders have also begun to turn against him; Kellyanne Conway is reportedly mounting a vigorous campaign to get him removed from the ticket. In response, the Trump campaign is about to send Vance out on a massive, dayslong media blitz. We'll see if this saves Vance's bacon, or if it proves to be his last stand. (Z)

Reading the Tea Leaves: National Trendlines Looking Good for Harris

While the future is uncertain for J.D. Vance, Kamala Harris continues to get good news. We've had a number of swing state polls this week, and we'll have more next week. For now, however, we'll highlight a few different macro-indicators:

As long as we are on the subject of the Harris campaign, her VP announcement is less than a week away. And there's every chance it will leak out a bit early (as happened with J.D. Vance), due to the arrangements that have to be made once a person gets tapped. For what it is worth, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) has cleared his calendar for the weekend, while Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) has also canceled several planned events. (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Iron Eagle

The hints for last week's theme were: (1) the theme words appear in the correct order, and (2) [BLANK]. We forgot to do a second hint on Saturday.

No matter, though, because the readers were onto us like white on rice. Here's the key, courtesy of reader D.D. in Carversville, PA:

The theme this week is the list of traditional anniversary gifts: I really do cotton to the headline theme contest when you don't pull the wool over my eyes with an iron-clad toughie!

As several readers correctly guessed, the toughest part was getting them to appear in the correct order.

Here are the first 50 readers to get it right:

  1. D.C. in South Elgin, IL
  2. J.T. in Philadelphia, PA
  3. D.D. in Carversville
  4. J.P. in Fredericksburg, VA
  5. B.R. in Arlington, MA
  6. D.L. in Springfield, IL
  7. D.S. in Fort Collins, CO
  8. A.E. in Cleveland, OH
  9. D.K. in Carlisle, PA
  10. D.S. in Layton, UT
  11. R.B. in Amherst, MA
  12. D.C. in Portland, OR
  13. M.E. in Greenbelt, MD
  14. A.C. in Kingston, MA
  15. D.F. in Gorham, ME
  16. C.H. in Atlanta, GA
  17. E.G.Å. in Trondheim, Norway
  18. A.R. in St. Louis, MO
  19. M.G. in Marseille, France
  20. M.J. in Oakdale, MN
  21. M.L. in Acton, MA
  22. B.M. in Chico, CA
  23. N.H. in London, England, UK
  24. J.F. in Fayetteville, NC
  25. H.H. in Boston, MA
  1. E.S. in Cincinnati, OH
  2. T.K. in Half Moon Bay, St. Kitts
  3. A.S. in Fairfax, VA
  4. C.B. in Lakeville, MN
  5. G.V. in Plano, TX
  6. M.M. in Dunellen, NJ
  7. S.F. in Hutto, TX
  8. B.B. in Avon, CT
  9. G.W. in Avon, CT
  10. A.P. in Kitchener, ON, Canada
  11. J.B. in Portland, OR
  12. L.T.G. in Bexley, OH
  13. J.J. in Berwyn, IL
  14. M.G. in Newtown, PA
  15. K.P. in Cincinnati, OH
  16. A.D. in Moore County, NC
  17. M.A. in Soquel, CA
  18. R.H.O. in Portland, ME
  19. J.N. in Zionsville, IN
  20. R.G. in Bella Vista, AR
  21. K.R. in Austin, TX
  22. P.D. in Lanham, MD
  23. D.E. in Ann Arbor, MI
  24. A.H. in Espoo, Finland
  25. D.W. in Valencia, CA

Reader D.E. in Lancaster, PA, notes that the gift for a third anniversary is leather, and wonders if that is to spice things up. Also, a number of readers caught onto the theme because they have just had, or will soon have, an anniversary. So, we extend our congratulations to:

We'll also note that when we need a "definitive" list/reference, we use Wikipedia. There were some folks who wondered about china vs. porcelain for the 20th anniversary. We went with porcelain because that's how Wikipedia's list has it.

This week, the theme appears in every headline (as always, to the right of the colon). It relies on one word each (though that word is repeated, in one case). It's in the Trivial Pursuit category Sports & Leisure, and as to a hint, we'll say that you're probably at an advantage if you are wearing hosiery that is uncolored, or red-hued.

If you have a guess, send it to us at comments@electoral-vote.com with subject line "August 2 Headlines." (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Canadians Caught Red-Handed

It's Olympics time! That means that, for some athletes and nations, it's time to reveal their greatness to the world. And for other athletes and nations, well, dirty secrets will be aired for a global audience.

The Canadians, and, more particularly, the Canadian women's soccer team, find themselves in that second category right now. On July 22, the New Zealand women's team was practicing on a field in Saint-Étienne, France, when they noticed a drone flying overhead. The various news stories are not especially clear on what happened next, but somehow the French police got involved, and figured out that the pilot of the drone was Joseph Lombardi, who is a staff member of Canada Soccer. As you can probably guess, Canada was scheduled to play New Zealand (on July 25). Canada ended up winning that game, 2-1.

The victory was a bit hollow, however. Since that game, "le poop" has hit "le fan," as they say in Canada. An investigation, conducted with great alacrity, found that this was not an isolated incident, and that cheating had become "systemic" with the team. Lombardi, head coach Beverly Priestman and assistant coach Jasmine Mander were suspended from working in soccer for a year (and presumably won't find it easy to get work once that year is out). The suspension was handed down by FIFA, and so applies to any soccer organization that is a member of that body. In other words, moving to Japan or the Netherlands or Chile isn't going to open any new opportunities. In addition, the Canadian women's team was docked six points in the Olympic standings. They still qualified for the second (and knockout) round, but will have to face much tougher teams.

We trust the lesson here is clear, but just in case, we'll spell it out. If you live in Seattle, Detroit, Buffalo, Chicago, or other northerly cities, always keep one eye on the sky, in case of unfriendly drones. Who knows how much intel the 'Nades have already collected; hopefully it is not too late. That concludes today's public service announcement. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: Padre Receives Medal of Freedom

We've been meaning to get to this story for several weeks; forgive us that it's now slightly old news. In any event, the Presidential Medal of Freedom presents various opportunities for the occupant of the Oval Office. It can be used to encourage various forms of public service and achievement. That was certainly the purpose intended when the award was first created, under John F. Kennedy. Alternatively, it can be used to try to score political points. Consider some of the more notable awardees from the two most recent presidents:

Undoubtedly, each president has some honorees in category #1 (encourage public service), some in category #2 (score political points), and some in both. We will leave it to readers to examine the lists and decide for themselves which category tended to be more common for Trump, and which one tends to be more common for Biden.

However, there is one award among the most recent batch from Biden that we are quite confident is in category one. That would be the medal presented to Father Gregory Boyle, who is something of a legend in Los Angeles, having served in various roles across the city for nearly four decades. Boyle is a native Angeleno who entered the seminary in 1972, earned four different post-secondary degrees (B.A. in Philosophy and English, Master's in English, Master's in Sacred Theology, Master's in Divinity), was ordained in 1984, and received his first pastoral assignment in 1988. That was at Dolores Mission Church, perhaps appropriately located in Boyle Heights. This is one of the poorer parts of town, and has been predominantly Latino for generations. When Boyle took over at Dolores, it was the poorest parish in the city, located between two housing projects and in the territory of eight different gangs.

As you can imagine, Boyle felt it was his responsibility to help improve a community that was both poor and crime-ridden. So, he joined with local leaders to found Jobs for a Future. After the infamous 1992 L.A. Riots, this evolved into Jobs for a Future and Proyecto Pastoral. That organization opened up a business called Homeboy Bakery, meant to provide vocational training for gang members who wanted to leave the life behind. Homeboy Bakery, in turn, became the foundation for Homeboy Industries.

Homeboy Industries has been, by any measure, a staggering success. Its vocational training now includes both coursework in various skills (reading, computer use, etc.) as well as hands-on work at the original bakery, several cafés, an embroidery and silkscreen shop, and a food processing concern that produces primarily Latino food products like tortilla chips and salsa. The organization also offers counseling and legal assistance, as well as practical services like tattoo removal and job placement. It serves 10,000 people per year, free of charge, and has an annual budget of $40 million. It is, in fact, the largest gang intervention and rehabilitation program in the world.

Maybe hitting a lot of home runs 100 years ago or serving in politics for a long time is an accomplishment worthy of a medal. We don't know. What we do know is that it would be hard for an award to be more richly deserved than the one that Father Boyle received. A tip of the cappello romano to him and his team.

Have a good weekend, all! (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is up 4 in this same poll. Looks like there's going to be a lot of ticket-splitting in the Buckeye State.

An interesting question is: "Is J.D. Vance helping Trump in the former's home state?" The most recent Ohio poll before today is the Marist poll of June 3-6, where Trump was ahead by 7 points. Now he is ahead by 10 points. So maybe—just maybe—veeps can help the ticket by a couple of points in their home states. Does that matter? Probably. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) are surely smiling today. (Z & V)

State Kamala Harris Donald Trump Start End Pollster
Ohio 42% 52% Jul 23 Jul 28 Fabrizio + Anzalone

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.


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