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New polls: (None)
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: (None)

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If at First You Don't Succeed, Fail, Fail Again

As expected, Speaker-designate Jim Jordan (R-OH) forced a second floor vote for speaker yesterday. And, as expected, he came up short.

When all was said and done, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) got the same 212 votes that he got on Tuesday. Jordan picked up one vote from a member who was absent on Tuesday (Gus Bilirakis, R-FL), flipped two non-Jordan votes (Doug LaMalfa, R-CA and Victoria Spartz, R-IN), and saw four votes turn against him (Vern Buchanan, R-FL; Drew Ferguson, R-GA; Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-IA; and Pete Stauber, R-MN). That's +1, +2, -4, for a net of -1. Put another way, Jordan dropped from 200 votes on Tuesday to 199 on Wednesday. This is known, to use some technical jargon, as "heading in the wrong direction."

The non-Jordan votes are all over the place. There have been Republican votes for former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), former speaker John Boehner, former representative Lee Zeldin (R-NY), and Reps. Mike Garcia (R-CA), Tom Emmer (R-MN), Tom Cole (R-OK), Thomas Massie (R-KY), Candice Miller (R-MI), Byron Donalds (R-FL), Kay Granger (R-TX), and Bruce Westerman (R-AR). Here's a list of every Republican member who voted for a candidate other than Jordan at least once this week:

Member	District	Dist. PVI	Biden 18?	Round One	Round Two
Don Bacon	NE-02	EVEN	Yes	McCarthy	McCarthy
Vern Buchanan	FL-16	R+7	No	Jordan	Donalds
Ken Buck	CO-04	R+13	No	Emmer	Emmer
Lori Chavez-DeRemer	OR-05	D+2	Yes	McCarthy	McCarthy
Anthony D'Esposito	NY-04	D+5	Yes	Zeldin	Zeldin
Mario Diaz-Balart	FL-26	R+8	No	Scalise	Scalise
Jake Ellzey	TX-06	R+15	No	Garcia	Garcia
Drew Ferguson	GA-03	R+18	No	Jordan	Scalise
Andrew Garbarino	NY-02	R+3	No	Zeldin	Zeldin
Carlos Giménez	FL-28	R+2	No	McCarthy	McCarthy
Tony Gonzales	TX-23	R+5	No	Scalise	Scalise
Kay Granger	TX-12	R+12	No	Scalise	Scalise
John James	MI-10	R+3	No	Cole	Miller
Mike Kelly	PA-16	R+13	No	Scalise	Boehner
Jennifer Kiggans	VA-02	R+2	Yes	McCarthy	McCarthy
Nick LaLota	NY-01	R+3	Yes	Zeldin	Zeldin
Doug LaMalfa	CA-01	R+12	No	McCarthy	Jordan
Mike Lawler	NY-17	D+3	Yes	McCarthy	McCarthy
Mariannette Miller-Meeks	IA-01	R+3	No	Jordan	Granger
John Rutherford	FL-05	R+11	No	Scalise	Scalise
Mike Simpson	ID-02	R+14	No	Scalise	Scalise
Victoria Spartz	IN-05	R+11	No	Massie	Jordan
Pete Stauber	MN-08	R+8	No	Jordan	Westerman
Steve Womack	AR-03	R+15	No	Scalise	Scalise

We understand the statement being made by the members who are voting Scalise and McCarthy. We understand much less the point of voting for, say, Westerman or Granger.

In any event, what exactly is keeping Jordan from making it over the hump? Well, Don Bacon (R-NE), whose wife was obliquely threatened by one or more anonymous Jordan supporters, has voted against Jordan twice and was chortling yesterday that the wannabe speaker has "hit a brick wall" after "harassing our spouses." Meanwhile, Miller-Meeks, who was one of the new anti-Jordan votes, told reporters that she had received death threats after withdrawing her support for Jordan, and that she's working with the authorities to try to find the responsible parties.

In short, it sure looks like the Ohioan has burned his bridges with some of his colleagues. Actually, "burned his bridges" is probably putting it mildly. He's smashed the bridges into pieces, burned the pieces, buried the ashes 20 feet down, and then poured two tons of concrete on top. Point is, those bridges ain't coming back. Indeed, we cannot conceive of what he might do to flip 16-18 of the anti-Jordan votes. Consider again all of his liabilities:

• He's tainted by a molestation scandal
  
  
• He's a jerk
  
  
• Some of his followers, with either his tacit or explicit support, behave like psychopaths
  
  
• He's the face of extremism
  
  
• He tried to help overthrow the 2020 election
  
  
• He's never gotten a single bill passed into law, and has virtually none of the skills a speaker needs

What on earth could he possibly say to assuage concerns over any one of these things? Much less all of them? And the word is that in the next vote, currently planned for today, he is going to lose even more votes.

Given that Jordan looks to be toast, there is much discussion among members of the Republican conference about who might be the next candidate to put themselves through the wringer. All of the dozen names being bandied about are men, and all but one of them (Donalds) is white. This political party is not what you would call diverse, particularly in its upper ranks, although we are surprised that Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) isn't getting at least some buzz. The only thing that is clear is that while Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC) might be given additional (temporary) powers, he has said he is not interested in the permanent job.

Since we're running out of things to say about Jordan, as he flails around, we thought we would try to think of solutions to the Republicans' problem. We've already written about the possibility of reaching across the aisle, but apparently that's more distasteful to the members of the House Republican Conference than drinking cow urine soda while having one's nether regions connected to an electric socket as the complete works of Michael Bolton play in the background. So, as we try to think creatively, we operate under the assumption that the Republicans must pick a member of their own party to be speaker, it must be accomplished with Republican votes only, but it cannot be achieved the normal way. Here are three out-of-the-box ideas:

1. They agree to put the names of all 220 Republican members into a hat, and whatever name comes out is the next Speaker. The sortition approach would basically give every faction some chance to seat their kind of speaker, and yet would allow every member to disclaim specific responsibility for the person chosen ("I did not want to vote for Lauren Boebert for speaker, I was only honoring my word to support the sortition compromise.")
   
   
2. They agree to choose a new speaker every month, so that no single selection is particularly fraught or momentous. If you don't like, say, Steve Scalise, just wait a month and he'll be out.
   
   
3. They pick some objective criterion for choosing the speaker. In the Senate, the most senior senator of the majority party is usually pro tempore. Maybe the same approach could be used for picking the speaker (congratulations, Speaker Hal Rogers, R-KY). Or it could go to the most successful fundraiser, or the member who saw the most bills become law in the last 10 years.

None of these things is likely to come to pass, of course. Not only are these screwball solutions, but they would also require the Freedom Caucusers to abide by the decisions of the group. If the FCers were able to do that, then either Kevin McCarthy or Steve Scalise would be speaker right now.

That said, there is one bullet that is still in the chamber, and that nobody seems to be talking about. It only takes 110 votes to kick someone out of the House Republican Conference. And if a member is booted from the Conference, they lose their committee assignments. This threat could certainly be used to impose a little party discipline on members who would be able to do far less grandstanding if they no longer had committee meetings to grandstand in (ahem, Mr. Jordan).

Incidentally, speaking of off-the-wall solutions, Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA), a moderate, has a pretty wild suggestion for a "compromise" speaker. He proposes... George W. Bush. That is a suggestion that illustrates two things, in roughly equal measure. First, 15 years affords a lot of opportunity to forget the bad. If a Democrat had made that suggestion in 2010, he would likely have been drummed out of the party. Second, while Bush was plenty extreme by the standards of his day, the Republican Party has moved far enough to the right that he kinda does pass for a moderate now.

Anyhow, we shall see what today brings. Could be anything, but probably not Speaker Jim Jordan. Or Speaker George W. Bush. (Z)

Speaker Mess Produces Its First Bit of Fallout

You have to assume that once House Republicans figure out what to do with the speakership, some dominoes are going to fall. Some folks who did not back an extremist are likely to draw primary challenges from the right, while some folks who did back an extremist are likely to draw a primary challenge from the center. Although, with the dynamics of today's GOP, the former is more likely than the latter.

Yesterday, with the speakership far from settled, the first politician made their move. Navy veteran Phil Ehr (D) was going to try to knock off Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), but then Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) jumped into that race, backed by the Democratic establishment. So, Ehr just announced that he'll shoot for the House instead, and will take on Carlos Giménez in the very purple FL-08. Ehr's thinking is that in vocally supporting Donald Trump and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), but opposing Jordan, Giménez will have alienated the Republican base, and many of them won't vote for him on Election Day.

It's an interesting theory, and certainly Ehr has a better chance of beating Giménez than he does of beating Mucarsel-Powell and then turning around and beating Scott. We really don't think things will work out the way that Ehr is hoping, but you can't blame him for trying. In any event, it's a reminder that the speaker situation is likely to generate a lot of moves and counter-moves, particularly once someone actually has the gavel. (Z)

Biden Goes to Israel

We guessed that Joe Biden might sneak into Israel a little early, so as to throw an additional curveball for any hostiles who wish him ill. He did not do that, by all indications, but he did spend 7 hours there, including a lengthy meeting with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, before heading home.

Biden's trip happened against the backdrop of the hospital explosion in Gaza, a tragedy that certainly upended much of the President's plans. Initial reports pinned the blame on the Israeli military. Now, U.S. intelligence sources believe it was actually a missile fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It was apparently accidental that the bomb landed where it did... in case that makes it better.

Here are five positives for Biden from the trip:

1. He was not killed or injured
2. He made a strong statement of support for Israel by being there.
3. He made a strong statement in favor of Palestinian innocents in remarks delivered while in Israel.
4. He conveyed empathy for victims on both sides.
5. He managed to arrange for $100 million in aid to the people living in Gaza.

And here are five negatives:

1. He was not able to meet with other national leaders, and so could not warn them personally to stay out of Israel.
2. He stuck his foot in his mouth when he said that the missile that hit the hospital came from the "other team." That is a wee bit flippant, and also makes the U.S. look like something other than a neutral arbiter.
3. His trip could be interpreted by Iran as a provocation, and could encourage that nation to see what it might get away with.
4. He did not make any apparent headway in terms of retrieving the 13 Americans believed to be held hostage by Hamas.
5. He probably gave Netanyahu a propaganda victory, which is concerning for many in America and abroad.

Many of Biden's advisers wanted him to skip the trip, but he was steadfast, and really, he probably had to go. That said, the incredibly tricky nature of this particular bit of foreign policy is indicated by all the infighting that's going on within the Democratic Party. For example, the Democratic Socialists of America put out a statement that was dangerously close to being pro-Hamas, causing Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) to quit the organization, while the DSA's most prominent member, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) condemned the statement as "bigotry and callousness." Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is furious that Israel was blamed for the hospital being blown up, but Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) still blames the Israelis (and Joe Biden), accusing them of perpetuating genocide. Thanks for helping to cheapen that word, Rashida. A mid-level State Department official named Josh Paul resigned loudly in protest of the President's decisions regarding the provision of arms to Israel. And these are just a few examples.

Tonight, Biden will try his best to get his party and his country on the same page, with an Oval Office address in which he will request about $100 billion in funding for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and securing the Mexican border. In other words, there's something there for everyone to like, and something there for everyone to dislike. He's going to need to come up with a heck of a speech if he hopes to get that kind of cash. (Z)

Crematoria of Democracy?

If states are the laboratories of democracy, per Louis Brandeis, where new ideas can be tested, improved, and propagated, then surely it must also be the case that states can be places where old ideas, including some good ones, can be lit on fire, and burned to a crisp.

As a case in point, we give you the state of North Carolina, which has been moving in a decidedly dictatorial-fascist direction for a while, and which really put the pedal to the floor in the last few weeks. Among the changes wrought by the GOP-controlled legislature:

• Over the veto of Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC), it has handed over control of most election-related functions to bipartisan boards where Republicans and Democrats will have equal representation. That may sound very kumbayah, but what happens if all the Democrats feel one way and all the Republicans feel another? At best, it will lead to gridlock when it comes to election decision-making. At worst, it will pave the way for the legislature or the Republican-dominated state courts to step in and make decisions by fiat.
  
  
• The new state budget, also passed despite Cooper's objections, contains funding for a "secret" police force that would answer to the state legislature's Joint Legislative Commission on Governmental Operations, and would be entitled to "investigate" anything with virtually no oversight. Like, say, why so many Black people are voting, and whether or not they should be doing so if they know what's good for them.
  
  
• Yesterday, as long expected, the legislature unveiled a wildly gerrymandered house district map that could well turn a 7R-7D delegation into an 11R-3D delegation. As a reminder, in the last presidential election, 49.93% of North Carolinians voted Republican and 48.59% voted Democratic, as opposed to it being 78% Republican and 22% Democratic, as the new maps would imply.

We wish we could write that there's hope that these obviously undemocratic maneuvers will be undone, but hope is pretty slim at the moment. Cooper and other Democrats have sued to block the new election-management law, but it's 50/50 at best that they will prevail. There's little that can be done about the secret police, and the U.S. Supreme Court has already given indications that a gerrymandered map is A-OK, as long as it's not a racial gerrymander. How one can tell the difference between the "non-racial" gerrymander in North Carolina (23% Black) and the "racial" gerrymander in Alabama (31% Black), we do not know. Nor does anyone else seem to know, either. (Z)

Scavenger Hunt, Part VII: Pithy Quotes

There are three things that are true right now: (1) The writing staff is actually a solo operation until Sunday, due to travel; (2) It's been a downer of a week, news-wise; and (3) the news is very top-heavy, with nearly everything being about Israel or the Jim Jordan circus. So, it's time to return to some content that moved to the back burner, namely the scavenger hunt that was launched on July 4.

As a reminder, these were the prompts:

1. The single photograph or image that best encapsulates the Trump presidency. (click here and here)
2. Something that would make a terrible Christmas gift for Joe Biden. (click here)
3. A book that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would never, ever read. (click here)
4. A t-shirt that would be very apropos for Chief Justice John Roberts to wear. (click here and here)
5. The wisest, most insightful, or most pithy quote ever to be uttered by a politician or political figure (need not be limited to Americans).
6. The worst bumper sticker, button, yard sign or other campaign-related ephemera in U.S. history. (Still time to submit here)
7. A portrayal of a key figure in U.S. history—image, song, verse, book, etc.—that is even more ridiculous than Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter. (Still time to submit here)
8. This isn't exactly a scavenger hunt type question, but we're going with it anyhow. Finish this joke: "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Hillary Clinton walk into a bar..." (Still time to submit here)

And now, in hopes that it lightens the day a bit, some pithy political quotes:

• M.S. in Las Vegas, NV: "Mistakes are a part of being human. Appreciate your mistakes for what they are: precious life lessons that can only be learned the hard way. Unless it's a fatal mistake, which, at least, others can learn from." — Comedian and Senator Al Franken
  
  
• W.R. in Tyson's Corner, VA: "There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader." — French politician Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin
  
  
• S.C. in Farmington Hills, MI: "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" — Author Isaac Asimov
  
  
• C.K. in Jacksonville, FL: "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing... after they've tried everything else." — U.K. Prime Minister Winston Churchill
  
  
• C.B. in Ashburn, VA: "Events, my dear boy, events!" — U.K. Prime Minister Harold Macmillan, when asked "What is the greatest challenge to your administration?"
  
  
• P.J.T. in Raton, NM: "Wisdom without eloquence is useless, and eloquence without wisdom is dangerous." — Roman orator Cicero
  
  
• J.K. in New York City, NY: "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross" — attributed to author Sinclair Lewis
  
  
• P.D. in Charlottesville, VA: "Reasoning will never make a man correct an ill opinion, which by reasoning he never acquired." — Author Jonathan Swift
  
  
• C.M. in Bridgewater, NJ: "That's great, son, but I need a majority to win." — Adlai Stevenson, allegedly in response to a supporter who said "Mr. Stevenson, you have the vote of every thinking American!"
  
  
• J.M. in New York City, NY: "While you're saving your face, you're losing your ass." — Lyndon B. Johnson
  
  
• R.R. in Nashville, TN: "Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day; teach a man to fish and he will eat for a lifetime; give a man religion and he will die praying for a fish." — U.K. Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli
  
  
• D.S. in Albuquerque, NM: "If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by." — General Sun Tzu
  
  
• R.V. in Pittsburgh, PA: "Republicans approve of the American farmer, but they are willing to help him go broke. They stand four-square for the American home—but not for housing. They are strong for labor—but they are stronger for restricting labor's rights. They favor minimum wage—the smaller the minimum wage the better. They endorse educational opportunity for all—but they won't spend money for teachers or for schools. They think modern medical care and hospitals are fine—for people who can afford them. They consider electrical power a great blessing—but only when the private power companies get their rake-off. They think American standard of living is a fine thing—so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it." — Harry S. Truman
  
  
• M.C. in Los Angeles, CA: "The future will be better tomorrow" — Dan Quayle
  
  
• J.L. in Los Angeles, CA: "No one party can fool all of the people all of the time; that's why we have two parties." — Bob Hope

We shall have some more tomorrow, and then we'll continue with our fall cleaning (fall clearance?) next week. There are some pretty darn good Trump/DeSantis/Clinton jokes in the hopper, among other things, and we also have a fair bit of other stuff that is on the back burner that we want to get to. (Z)

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