Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) does his own thing and doesn't care if he pisses other people off or not. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) is not as well known to the American public as the media-hungry Jordan is, but he has enormous power behind the scenes. And as the dust settles from the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker, it looks like the race to replace him is going to come down to the punk versus the godfather.
In a normal political world, it's understandable why Scalise would be a candidate. He has his liabilities, of course, including health problems and a close association with the guy who was just cashiered. But he's experienced, he's served in leadership, and he's well connected to the movers and shakers of the Republican Party in general and the House Republican Conference in particular. It's not common for a speaker to exit mid-term, but when it happens, the next person on the totem pole usually gets the call. That's Scalise.
Meanwhile, in a normal political world, Jordan's candidacy would be inconceivable. We called him a punk, which carries positive connotations of "justifiable rebellion against the system" but also negative connotations of "jerk." We definitely meant it in the negative sense. He's a self-aggrandizing ass who is more than willing to sacrifice friends, colleagues, the Constitution, etc., in service of his own self-serving goals. He may just be a vassal (or a villein, if you prefer), but he's nearly as divisive as his feudal lord Donald Trump, and would drive Democrats to the polls in droves in 2024. He is complicit in efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And it's not like he was a great guy before he was elected, either. Most obviously, he is credibly accused of looking the other way while the college wrestlers under his tutelage were victimized by a serial molester.
Needless to say, we do not live in a normal political world, and so... Jordan's candidacy is gaining traction. McCarthy's staff is working the phones on behalf of the Ohioan (we told you McCarthy and Scalise don't like each other). Sean Hannity, who is now Fox's most prominent entertainer, has endorsed him. And late last night, after briefly floating himself as a "temporary" option, Trump officially endorsed Jordan. It's enough that former representative Adam Kinzinger, who obviously has special insight here, predicted yesterday that Jordan will be the pick (though it should be noted that former representative Liz Cheney thinks Jordan is unelectable).
For our part, we still agree with Cheney. Jordan might get to 30 votes, or 50 or maybe even 100. But 218? We just don't see how. We cannot imagine that the Biden 18 are willing to hitch their fates to such a divisive figure. There have to be at least 100 other members who represent red districts, but are nervous about the same thing. And that's before we talk about the fact that there's a lot of resentment of the Freedom Caucusers (of which Jordan is one) for derailing McCarthy.
We also don't see how the current calendar (let's get the new speaker in place by Tuesday or Wednesday) can possibly work out. This is currently a faction in disarray; beyond the basic political calculus of "who best to lead the GOP into the presidential election," emotions are also running very high right now. To give just a few examples, Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) declared that he doesn't want either Scalise or Jordan, and his candidate is Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and several others are still holding out hope for Trump. Numerous colleagues are furious with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) for betraying McCarthy (who helped her get elected) and then for rushing off to her office immediately after the vote to begin fundraising off of the former Speaker's demise. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), who was Rep. Markwayne Mullin until January of this year, went on CNN yesterday to tell unflattering stories about Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), like "He bragged about how he would crush E.D. medicine and chase it with energy drinks so he could go all night." Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH) was also on CNN, and said he'd like to throw the 8 Republicans who voted against McCarthy out of the GOP conference. Another Republican member, who would only speak off the record, said: "The only grudge that I know as a fact is going to last is the one we are going to hold against those eight a**holes."
In sum, this does not seem like a group that is going to be able to reach a grand compromise in the next 3 or 4 days. Especially since it's not just about the person, it's about the circumstances under which they serve. If the next speaker has the "any individual member can vacate" rule hanging over their head, then it's inevitable that there will be a repeat of what happened this week—and as soon as next month, when the budget has to be addressed. But will the Freedom Caucusers ever agree to support a non-FCer for speaker without that option available? Will the non-FCers ever agree to support a Freedom Caucuser without that option available?
Maybe there is some middle way that we can't see, but it sure looks to us like there's going to be a staunch pro-Jordan faction and a staunch pro-Scalise faction, and neither group is going to be willing to cut a deal—certainly not before tensions have had time to cool a little. Maybe they'll go through with a public round of voting or two, just for show purposes, but maybe not, since public failures are embarrassing. We just don't have any idea what next week will look like.
We're not optimistic, but we're going to beat this drum again: What really needs to happen is that someone in the Republican conference needs to start thinking differently, and in particular to realize that the GOP really isn't one party anymore, it is two, and those two are pulling apart at the seams. In a parliamentary system, which the U.S. is doing an excellent job of mimicking, if your coalition partner becomes unreliable, you look for a new partner. In this case, the only alternative available is the Democrats (or, if you prefer, the Blue Dog Democrats). Changing the paradigm is the only real chance at ending the dysfunction that has characterized the House for much of the last two decades, and for nearly all of the time that the Republicans were in the majority. Or, as Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) put it (and we're not going to censor, since he said it on camera and it was broadcast on cable): "Replacing one dick with a different kind of dick isn't gonna change anything." (Z)
OK, that headline is a little judgmental, maybe to the point of being problematic, but we're going to go with it because we think it's pretty amusing. It's a rare day that Donald Trump (the turd referred to in the headline) does not find himself scrambling (that is, on the run) from the latest legal difficulties created by his careless, often stupid, probably criminal behavior. The latest news involves Trump sharing classified information with someone definitely not entitled to that information.
That someone is an Australian billionaire, but one who is not—to our surprise—Rupert Murdoch. Nope, it is Anthony Pratt, who owns and runs Pratt Industries, a packaging company. Pratt is a member at Mar-a-Lago, and Trump likes to chat with him over lunch, probably about what it's like to be an actual billionaire. During one of their conversations, Pratt brought up the U.S. submarine fleet, and said Australia should be buying its subs from America. Trump reportedly leaned in and, in a "just between us" tone, revealed the exact number of nuclear warheads that U.S. subs carry and exactly how close they can get to a Russian sub without being detected. That's classified information, and Pratt rewarded Trump's confidence by sharing those details with at least 45 people, including 11 Pratt Industries employees, 10 Australian officials, six journalists, and three former Australian prime ministers. We know that loose lips sink ships; we're pretty sure submarines are included in that, too.
Pratt has already been interviewed by Special Counsel Jack Smith, and he said that Trump never showed off any actual documents. It's also not known if the information Trump shared was accurate, as military officials are refusing to comment on that point. That said, Trump is charged with possessing the documents, not with sharing them. He could be convicted even if nobody besides him saw or heard a single bit of information. But if Trump did share, or try to share, it speaks to intent, and undermines many or all of his potential defenses (like, for example, "I didn't even know that I had any classified documents"). Further, when it comes to intent, it doesn't actually matter if the information was correct, only that Trump tried to share it.
And so, the hole—which was already in competition with the Marianas Trench—just got a little deeper. (Z)
In the actual song, the word is not censored, but we're a family-friendly site. And the lyrics certainly fit the situation: "I'm never coming back/I'm never giving in/I'll never be the shine in your spit."
In case you haven't heard, and in case you haven't inferred, presidential candidate Cornel West and the Green Party have decided they do not see eye-to-eye, and so he announced yesterday that he will go it on his own as an independent candidate.
West is famously... prickly, let's say, so it's entirely possible that he and the people who run the Green Party just couldn't get along. On the other hand, running for president for over a year is hard work, particularly if you know you cannot possibly win. He's also more than clever enough to realize that "a pox on both your houses" rhetoric is all good and well, but that on the issues West cares about, Donald Trump would be a giant step backward as compared to any Democrat. So, it's possible that this is a way for West to back out of running for president while saving face.
Whatever the case may be, this is certainly good news for the Democrats. There are some people who are going to vote Green no matter who the candidate is. West's exit from the ticket will have no impact on those people. There are also some people who would vote for West in particular. Now, that will be impossible for some of those folks, because there is virtually no chance an independent can get on the ballot in all 50 states. So, some disaffected liberals will be left without that protest option, and some of those folks will undoubtedly return to the Democratic tent.
Indeed, if West really wanted to make a statement while not aiding Trump, then the correct play would be to get on the ballot in deep blue states and to stay off in swing states. We'll have to watch to see where, exactly, he ends up qualifying. (Z)
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) actually has two kinds of trouble. The first is legal, as his clumsy ballet with representatives of the Egyptian government was discovered, and appears to have created serious exposure for the Senator. The second is political, as there is enormous pressure on Menendez to resign, and little hope for him when it comes to being reelected in 2024.
Initially, Menendez was defiant. After his indictment, he said that there was no way he would resign his seat, and that he still expected to run for reelection. This week, he's been a little less unyielding. Speaking with NBC, he declined to comment on a possible resignation, while saying that a decision on his reelection bid is still pending, and that "I'm not going to jeopardize any seat in New Jersey under any circumstances."
What can account for this change in the Senator's posture? Could be that the passage of a little time has allowed him to calm down and think more rationally. Could be that at least 31 of his Democratic colleagues in the Senate have publicly called for his resignation (and there are probably more saying it behind closed doors). Could be the new poll from Data for Progress, which puts his net favorability with New Jersey voters at -57 points (18% approve, 75% disapprove), and which also says that if the primary were held next week, the Senator would get just 9% of the vote, as compared to 48% for already-announced challenger Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ). In, say, a four-way primary, it's possible to hold on and win with 30% of the vote. Can't be done with 9%, however. At this rate, Menendez would need something like a 15-way primary, ideally with four of his challengers all having the name Andy Kim.
It all points to something we've already written (although now we have hard evidence): Menendez' troubles are not likely to cost the Democrats a Senate seat, because he is going to be out of the running long before next year's general election. (Z)
Although the Beatles are the band most associated with the 1960s, and the 1960s were a time when many musicians created songs with strong political messages, the Beatles didn't actually record very many political songs. There's "Revolution" (and its variants), which was a John Lennon song (despite being credited to Lennon-McCartney, as nearly all Beatles songs were). And there's "Blackbird," which was a Paul McCartney song that used metaphor to express support for the Civil Rights Movement. That's pretty much it (unless you count "Back in the U.S.S.R.," which was a parody of Americans' belief in their exceptionalism, as political).
Inasmuch as Alabama (and other Deep South states) are still fighting the battles of the 1960s, "Blackbird" seemed a good choice for this item. We've written several times about how the state decided to ignore the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and to make AL-02 less Black and more white in the latest round of redistricting, despite the fact that the state's population grew more Black and less white between 2010 and 2020.
The Alabamians' efforts to dilute Black political power were egregious enough that the Supreme Court stepped in. And the Alabamians' efforts to do less than the Supreme Court ordered in map v2.0 were egregious enough that the right to draw maps was taken away from state officials. A new, special-master-drawn map has now been approved by a judge:
As you can see, AL-02 has been adjusted to include most of the majority-Black city of Mobile. Ironically, that results in a district shape that is much closer to Goofy kicking Donald Duck than the previous district was. Sometimes, the only thing that can fix a gerrymander is a different gerrymander, we suppose.
The new AL-02 is not majority-Black, but it is plurality-Black at 48.7%. More significantly, it swings from being Trump +29 to Biden +12. So, the odds of a Democratic pickup are strong. Meanwhile, we are likely to get an incumbent-vs-incumbent race in either AL-01 or AL-07.
Other states that did what Alabama did don't want to get spanked in the same way. On the other hand, they don't want to turn seats held by white Republicans into seats held by Black Democrats, either. So, they are looking at different approaches to getting around the rules. Louisiana is taking the lead at the moment, dragging its feet (with Fifth Circuit approval, so far) in hopes of running out the clock so that there's no choice but to stick with the current maps. Louisiana's approach is likely to be a model for other states under the Voting Rights Act microscope right now; Florida and North Carolina may soon try the same technique. (Z)
Donald Trump said that the solution to America's immigration problems is to build a big wall, and that it's important enough that environmental considerations could be shoved aside. He was roundly derided by Democrats for this. Now, Joe Biden has decided that America's border wall (well, its border fence) needs to be fortified, enough that environmental considerations could be shoved aside. He is being roundly derided by Republicans for this.
The President is walking a very, very fine line here. On one hand, fairly or not, he is being excoriated in many quarters over border security. On the other hand, he is from a party where many voters do not like border walls, especially given the person with whom they are most associated. And so, Biden is playing the "I have no choice" card. After noting that he doesn't think border walls work, and being careful to say that the new construction will be "barricades" and not "walls," and pointing out that authorization for the money being spent on the project is about to expire and cannot be re-allocated, Biden said the construction would move forward. This was reiterated in a tweet from Deputy Press Secretary Andrew Bates:
"Reversal" is absolutely false.
Fact: Congress is forcing us to do this under a 2019 law.
Fact: We called on Congress to cancel these funds. They didn't.
We follow the rule of law.
Congress needs to stop delaying the effective border solutions @POTUS proposed.
Readers will decide for themselves how much they accept this line of argument. We will note, however, that it is not easy to reconcile "I had no choice" with "But I still set aside more than two dozen laws to make it happen."
Republicans, as noted, have greeted this news with derision. Not because they oppose wall-building (or barrier-building), but because they believe it makes Biden look like a flip-flopper and a hypocrite, and they want to get some mileage out of it. Leading the way, of course, is Trump, who got on his obscure, little-used social media platform to wonder: "Will Joe Biden apologize to me and America for taking so long to get moving, and allowing our country to be flooded with 15 million illegals immigrants [sic], from places unknown. I will await his apology!" Biden never takes the bait that is put out there by his predecessor, but really should consider a reply along these lines: "I shall be happy to apologize to you just as soon as you apologize to me and the American people for stealing national secrets and sharing them with... everyone" (see above).
Of much greater concern to Biden, of course, is the response of Democrats. Thus far, he's taking a lot of incoming fire from the more liberal elements of the party. For example, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) issued a statement yesterday that begins: "The Biden administration was not required to waive several environmental laws to expedite the building of the border wall. The President needs to take responsibility for this decision and reverse course." AOC later adds that the only real effect of barriers is to encourage crossings in more remote areas, which then increases the incidence of injury and death.
Anyhow, it's exhibit #329 for "Why does anyone ever want to be president?" It's too bad that Congress rarely gets the blame for border issues, since the members, with their power of the purse, have far more power over border enforcement (collectively) than the president does. (Z)
Supposedly, Paul McCartney wrote "Martha, My Dear" about his English sheepdog. We do not know if Martha ever bit anyone. We do know that Commander, the First Dog, bites people regularly, enough that it's become a big story. That is particularly true over at CNN; if there was a Pulitzer for dog-bites-man news, CNN would definitely win it this year.
We obviously have no inside information about this situation, we know only what has been reported, namely that there have been about a dozen biting incidents. That said, we do know a few things about dogs and dog ownership. And so we thought we'd share a few observations for anyone trying to make sense of this situation:
Again, we have no special information about this particular problem or why it's gone on for so long. But we suspect that much of the answer is contained within those four bullet points.
It is also worth pointing out that someone with inside knowledge is talking to the press, and that someone (or those someones) would have access to the Bidens' private living spaces. Since we rather doubt that members of the Biden family are running to the press, there's a pretty good chance that one or more U.S.S.S. agents is dishing the dirt. The relationship between the Bidens and their protective detail is not great, in part because of the dog issues, in part because the Bidens often change their plans last minute, and in part because Joe Biden isn't Trump. The point is that someone apparently has an ax to grind, which is worth keeping in mind when reading these stories about the First Dog.
All of this said, Commander has been sent to live elsewhere, at least for now. And he should not be brought back to the White House. Politically, this story is doing harm to the administration, as it's the kind of thing that people understand and feel strongly about. That's less true with something more abstract like, say, trade agreements with Australia. On top of that, it's not kind to the Secret Service agents if they do not feel safe. And it's also not kind to the dog. The trainers have tried to train this out of him, and it hasn't worked. If he was any other dog, he almost certainly would have been destroyed after multiple acts of aggression. So, the First Family is just going to have to accept that a sub-optimal solution is the best and only solution left. (Z)
Before we get to the theme of last Friday's headline songs, allow us to address another musical matter. On Tuesday, in the item "Trump Legal News: 99 Luftballons," we wrote that "Three songs predominantly in German have made the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart in the United States." One of them was "99 Luftballons" and the other two, revealed at the bottom of the page, are "Rock Me Amadeus" by Falco and "Sailor (Your Home Is the Sea)" by Lolita. We got many e-mails telling us we had missed a song or two. Allow us to address those "misses":
Song | Comments |
"Wind of Change," by The Scorpions | The English-language version made it to #4, but not the German version |
"Major Tom (Coming Home)," by Peter Schilling | Did well on some of the specialty charts, but peaked at #14 on the Hot 100 |
"Der Kommissar," by Falco | Not released as a single in the U.S., and so not eligible for the Hot 100 |
"Wooden Heart," by Elvis Presley | Only partly in German; didn't make the Hot 100 |
"Danke Schoen," by Wayne Newton | Only partly in German; topped out at #13 on the Hot 100 |
"Du Hast," and other songs by Rammstein | We actually did miss a Rammstein song, but not "Du Hast," which wasn't released as a single in the U.S. "RAMMSTEIN" made it to #9 in 2019. |
"Komm Gib Mir Deine Hand," by The Beatles | "Sie Liebt Dich" made it to #97; "Komm Gib Mir Deine Hand" did not chart. |
"Sagt Mir wo die Blumen sind," by Joan Baez | Didn't chart. |
"Bei Mir Bist Du Schön," by The Andrews Sisters | Partly in Yiddish, not German, but did make it to #1 in 1937 |
An impressive display of pop culture knowledge on the part of the readers. And we should note that some correspondents acknowledged that their suggestion did not actually fit the established parameters. We did miss "RAMMSTEIN," though.
Moving on, the songs last week were:
We initially gave the hint that the theme only works for the Junkie XL version of "A Little Less Conversation" and not the original. On Saturday, we added the hint that it's "much easier to figure it out if you have a fever... or if you're impersonating Bruce Dickinson. Yes, THE Bruce Dickinson." Reader B.K. in Champlin, MN, was the first to get it: "As a percussionist, you weren't going to sneak this one past me... I've got a fever and the only prescription is I gotta have more cowbell."
Indeed, all of these songs feature a cowbell. Perhaps most obviously "Don't Fear the Reaper," wherein the cowbell was the basis of one of the most famous Saturday Night Live sketches the show has ever produced, featuring Christopher Walken as Bruce Dickinson. Yes, THE Bruce Dickinson.
The first 10 readers to get it:
As to this week's theme, we'd say it's an 8 of 10 in difficulty, until we give the hint. The hint is: You you have have to to think think about about it it to to solve solve it it. That should take it down to a 5 or so.
If you have a guess, send it here. (Z)
Let's be blunt: Mike Lindell is a real jerk. He pulls shady tricks on his customers. He treats his employees badly. He tried to, you know, overthrow an election. He stiffs people to whom he owes money. And he does it all while wearing that very ostentatious cross that he almost always wears. In our view, that's an insult to tens of millions of decent Christians across the country.
As to the point about stiffing people to whom he owes money, Lindell still hasn't paid the $5 million he was supposed to pay to the mathematician who proved that Lindell's election numbers are nonsense. That despite the fact that Mr. MyPillow already lost a court judgment. And now, he's not only stiffing his opponents, he's stiffing his lawyers. Yesterday, the only Minnesota firm willing to defend Lindell in court, Parker Daniels Kibort, as well as their Washington partner, Lewin and Lewin, filed a notification that their client is millions of dollars in arrears, and that they will not represent him again until he pays up.
That means Lindell and Donald Trump now have something else in common. However, it also means that Lindell is in deep financial trouble. Which, now that we think about it, is yet another thing that he and Trump have in common. In Lindell's case, he can't pay his bills, his company's sales have fallen off, he's had to downsize his staff, and his lines of credit were slashed. Oh, and he still faces tens of millions (or hundreds of millions) of dollars in potential liability without any apparent ability to afford top-flight counsel. Or any counsel.
In short, it appears the economic death spiral has begun, and if you always wanted your very own MyPillow, you better buy now, before it's too late. Lindell, given his conspiratorial bent, says this is the outcome that "they" always wanted. If so, then "they" did an excellent job of causing Lindell to spend millions chasing fantasies and also compelling him to say countless stupid and actionable things on camera.
When this news broke yesterday, we both had the exact same response: Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. (Z)
Dianne Feinstein was laid to rest yesterday. In a sign of the times, her memorial service was closed to the public, and the site of her grave was kept secret, because of credible threats by people who disliked the Senator.
We are not the ideal people to write obituaries. If that is what you want, then take a look at The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Associated Press, or the extensive coverage from The San Francisco Chronicle, her hometown paper.
What we are suited for, by contrast, is research. And so, to note Feinstein's passing, and to acknowledge her historic career, we present these ten short stories from her life:
It was a heckuva career. Have a good weekend, all! (Z)