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No Arrest, But...

Donald Trump was not arrested yesterday. No big surprise. Though he did raise a bunch of money off the claim that his arrest was imminent. Also, no big surprise. It's always about the grift.

Though there may not have been an arrest, Trump nonetheless did not have a good day yesterday. In terms of the thing he really cares about, which is teeming hordes of people expressing their undying love for him, Tuesday was a disappointment. The MAGA protesters in New York City were outnumbered and outshouted by the anti-Trump protesters, and it wasn't especially close. Overall, online chatter suggests that far fewer Trumpers are willing to stick their necks out for the former president, even when he's arrested (assuming he is).

In terms of things Trump cares far less about than he should, there was very bad news for him in federal court. In short, Judge Beryl Howell, right at the end of her time as chief judge, ruled that special counsel Jack Smith had successfully made the case that the former president committed crimes when he held on to the classified documents at Mar-a-Lago.

This finding does not make Trump guilty, of course. In fact, the bar that will need to be cleared for that finding, by a jury of Trump's peers, is rather higher than the one Smith cleared last week. However, Howell's finding has a rather significant implication for the prosecution: attorney-client privilege can be pierced, and Trump's lawyers (some of them, at least) can be compelled to give information to Smith and to the grand jury.

And it goes beyond that. It would appear that Trump lied to his lawyers, specifically to Evan Corcoran, about what documents he had kept. That effectively made Corcoran an unwitting accessory to a potential crime. So, when he talks to the grand jury, he will have extra motivation to be very forthright with them. At the same time, this effectively hands the prosecution the core elements of an obstruction of justice case.

There is still much that is unknown here, and even the things that are known involve some guesswork and some reading between the lines. However, former Mueller probe assistant Andrew Weissmann was on MSNBC yesterday and opined that if the facts are as they seem to be, Trump's in deep trouble here. Among the many other places where he is also in trouble. (Z)

Out of the Frying Panhandle...

Is there anyone who believes Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) isn't going to run for president in 2024? It may be time for him to stop pretending that he is still deciding, and to make it official. And it's possible that is exactly what he is thinking, too. The Governor just sat for an interview with Piers Morgan, of the sort that, you know, wannabe presidents often sit for.

In the interview, Morgan asked DeSantis about his plans for 2024, and the Governor said:

I'm running against Biden. Like [Trump and I] are competing for the Republican, potentially, I get that, but ultimately you know the guy I'm gonna focus on is Biden because I think he's failed the country. I think the country wants a change. I think they want a fresh start and a new direction, and so we'll be very vocal about that.

Sounds like someone who is running to us. For added measure, he also took a few potshots at Donald Trump, and the former president's "chaotic" leadership style. This confrontation could not be put off forever, and given the drama and the squabbling surrounding a potential Trump extradition, the day may finally have arrived.

If this race is about to get real, and the Governor is about to leave the panhandle and jump into the fire, then we'll begin to see how well he handles being under the world's largest microscope. Thus far, the results are not promising. To take one example that's already become a bit of a meme, on Monday, DeSantis tweeted this: "The Cuban government tried to use the World Baseball Championship for propaganda. They still lost 14-2 to the USA. Freedom wins again."

It's remarkable that someone could squeeze so much buffoonery into 134 characters, but somehow DeSantis did it. What is buffoonish about this tweet? Let us count the ways:

  1. Using a sporting contest as a proxy for national character is silly chauvinism.

  2. DeSantis apparently did not notice the hypocrisy of accusing Cuba of using the game for propaganda purposes, and then promptly turning around and using it for propaganda purposes himself.

  3. Cuba has 11 million people. The United States has 330 million. Of course the U.S. is going to win more often than not. In other news, the Little League World Series, for some reason, is rarely won by teams from the Kingdom of Tuvalu or from the Principality of Monaco.

  4. Even allowing for built-in competitive advantages, baseball is a wonky sport. You can't draw meaningful conclusions based on the result of a single game. The worst team in baseball last year, the Nationals, still managed to win 34% of its games.

  5. The tournament is not the World Baseball Championship. It's the World Baseball Classic. Calling it the World Baseball Championship is like saying that Tiger Woods won the English Open three times, or that Michelle Yeoh won the Oscar for Best Acting by a Woman, or that it would be great to win a Piece of Nobel Prize.

The point here is not to mock DeSantis. That's just a bonus. No, the point is to illustrate that he consistently fails the "beer test." You can't fake being a sports fan anymore than you can fake being a pianist. Either you are or you aren't. Sports fandom has a rather vast vocabulary and conceptual basis that makes it easy to identify the fakers. Barack Obama really knows college basketball. George W. Bush really knows baseball. On the other hand, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) doesn't know anything about basketball, and in particular "basketball rings," as he calls them (he was referring to basketball hoops). When you are a politician and you step in it by using embarrassingly wrong terminology, it just underscores that you're not a regular guy or regular gal. And note that there's not a problem with not being a sports fan, per se. The problem is pretending you are when you're not.

Now, one thing DeSantis can do is read polls. And we suspect that this particular skill helps explain why he is suddenly engaging with Trump, and is suddenly pretending to be Joe Sixpack. The other Nate (Cohn, of The New York Times) had a piece last week in which he looked at the presidential polls. They are all over the place, of course, so it's hard to impose order on them. But my comparing sequential polls from the same pollsters, the clear conclusion is that DeSantis is losing ground to Trump. The two men were in a dead heat at the start of this year, but now Trump has opened up something like a 10-point lead over DeSantis in head-to-head matchups.

Cohn thinks the explanation here is pretty simple: (1) DeSantis' post-election bump has evaporated, (2) Trump has gone on the attack, and (3) DeSantis has stayed on the sidelines. This seems like a pretty good assessment to us. Of course, there is nothing the Governor can do about #1 and #2, but #3 is under his control. And whaddya know, all of a sudden he is sitting for interviews with Piers Morgan and is saying snarky things about Trump. Again, it looks like things are about to get real. (Z)

Trouble in Tuckerland

Tuckersota? Tuckertina? Tuckertucky? Tuckerstan? Tucktarus? Whatever name you prefer for Fox, it's very appropriate that they are in the entertainment business, because things there have turned into a real soap opera.

Everyone knows about the lawsuits from Dominion and Smartmatic. And most readers probably remember all the sexual harassment lawsuits from a few years back, largely targeting Roger Ailes and Bill O'Reilly. Well, now we have a lawsuit that effectively combines both of these things. Two lawsuits, actually. Abby Grossberg is a producer at Fox (or, at least, she was), having worked for both Tucker Carlson and Maria Bartiromo. Grossberg just sued the network in both New York and Delaware (and was put on involuntary administrative leave in response).

Among the juicier claims made in the two complaints:

Keep in mind that these are as-yet unsubstantiated claims from someone who is trying to win a lawsuit. That said, is there a single thing on the list that's even a little hard to believe? Maybe the Pelosi bit, though even that seems par for the course to us. In any event, recognizing that this sort of dirty laundry is not so good for the network's image, Fox is trying to persuade a judge to impose a gag order on Grossberg while the lawsuits are resolved.

Meanwhile, there were a couple of bad polls for Fox this week. The first, from Quinnipiac, reports that nearly all Democrats, but also 40% of Republicans, want the network to pay the price for its lies about the 2020 election. The second, commissioned by Variety, says that roughly half of Fox voters are unaware of the Dominion lawsuit, but among the half who are familiar with the story, nearly half trust the network less. That means that overall, about 21% of Fox viewers have a less favorable view of the network than they did before the 2020 election.

No wonder, then, that Fox isn't covering the lawsuits, and that it's trying to gag Abby Grossberg. Of course, these stories are only going to grow in prominence, and thus in the amount of oxygen they get. So, keeping them secret isn't going to be so easy going forward. On the whole, it's not a great time to be Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch. (Z)

Somehow, It Always Comes Back to the Evangelicals

Since it looks to be one of the main wedge issues of the 2024 election, we've written quite a bit about trans issues in the past couple of weeks, and some of the underlying dynamics therein. To recap:

And now, to wrap it up, we note a piece from Mother Jones brought to our attention by reader J.S. in The Hague, Netherlands. The staff of the publication filed a bunch of Freedom of Information requests for e-mails from state-level lawmakers. And what those e-mails make clear is that the folks who are really calling the shots are the evangelical lobbyists.

EVen FOIA requests can't paint a full picture, but it's clear that the same shadowy cabal that's behind the anti-abortion movement is behind the anti-trans stuff. We're talking groups like the Alliance Defending Freedom, the American College of Pediatricians, the Eagle Forum, the Christian Medical & Dental Association, and the Heritage Foundation. Those names are chosen to make the various entities seem impartial and patriotic, but they all exist to push a hard-right agenda informed by hard-right American evangelicalism.

What is motivating these folks is not clear. It could be that they really believe in what they are doing, so much so they're willing to pull whatever strings it takes. It could also be that this is their way of retaining political power in a world where the size of the evangelical population is shrinking. Truth is, it's probably both.

And that's what it really comes down to. For the right-wing media types, and the Neo-Nazis, and the evangelicals, and the politicians there's some blend here of sincere belief and political opportunism. And since they are largely on the same page, and since they largely reinforce one another, this will not only be a major dynamic in 2024; it figures to be a major dynamic for a fairly long time. Or, at very least, until these folks find an even more effective bugaboo. (Z)

Why the Trans Hate?, Part X: Final Words

After ten sets of reader comments, not to mention a number of accompanying items from us (see above), we think we have hit on this subject as much as we can for now. Undoubtedly it will be back over the course of the next 2 years, but for the moment we'll wrap it up. Here's one last set of comments, ending where it all began, with a letter from P.R. in Arvada:

Thanks to everyone who wrote in! We will have one more set of responses to comments in this weekend's mailbag. (Z)

The Word Cup: Championship Round

And so we come to the final matchup. It's taken a while, but that's sometimes how it goes. Anyhow, without further ado, we can reveal that carrying the banner for the presidential slogans will be "A New Deal for America" (74.5%), which defeats "Hope" (25.5%). And for the non-presidential slogans, it will be "We Shall Overcome" (52.4%), in a victory over "Give Me Liberty of Give Me Death" (47.6%) that was much narrower than we expected. That leaves you with an absolutely brutal choice between "A New Deal for America" and "We Shall Overcome."

Here are some reader comments on this round:

Here is the final ballot, and don't forget to send in your comments on the clash of the titans. Final results on Friday. (Z)

The Word Cup Quiz

We wanted to wrap up the Word Cup with a bit of icing for the cake. So, how about a quiz? First, as a reminder, here are the slogans that were part of the competition:

Non-presidential, Group I: Martial Slogans
     •  Give Me Liberty, or Give Me Death!
     •  Remember the Alamo!
     •  Remember the Maine!
     •  Remember Pearl Harbor!

Non-presidential, Group II: Reactionary SLogans
     •  The Chinese Must Go
     •  Kill the Indian, Save the Man
     •  Better Dead than Red
     •  Segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever

Non-presidential, Group III: Reform Slogans
     •  Votes for Women
     •  Make Love, Not War
     •  There Is No Planet B
     •  #MeToo

Non-presidential, Group IV: The Fight for Equality
     •  Si, Se Puede
     •  We Shall Overcome
     •  We're Here. We're Queer. Get Used to It
     •  Black Lives Matter

Presidential, Group I: Before the Civil War
     •  Tippecanoe and Tyler Too
     •  54-40 or fight
     •  Free Soil, Free Labor, Free Speech, Free Men, Fremont
     •  Lincoln and Liberty, Too!

Presidential, Group II: From the Civil War to World War II
     •  Let Us Have Peace
     •  Ma, Ma, where's my Pa?
     •  Keep Cool and Keep Coolidge
     •  A New Deal for America

Presidential, Group III: After World War II
     •  Give Em Hell, Harry!
     •  I like Ike
     •  In Your Guts You Know He's Nuts
     •  It's Morning Again in America

Presidential, Group IV: 21st Century
     •  Hope
     •  Feel the Bern!
     •  Jeb!
     •  Make America Great Again

And now we will describe 10 of the slogans above; all you have to do is figure out which one it is in each case (there are no repeats). So, can you identify:

  1. The slogan drawn from a campaign song that mentions Kentucky and Indiana, but not the candidate's state of residence? (presumably because of rhyming issues)

  2. The slogan that would have the highest value in Scrabble (57 points), assuming no limits on the amount of tiles you can use?

  3. The slogan that was created and used by liberals, but then coopted by conservatives, who merely flipped the order of the second and the final words?

  4. The slogan that helped power its candidate to the largest electoral vote total in U.S. history?

  5. The slogan that was coined nearly 80 years before it caught fire, and was also deployed (with limited success) roughly 60 years and 40 years before catching on?

  6. The slogan that is also the title of a song performed by Johnny Cash, Willie Nelson, The Kingston Trio, Donovan, and many others?

  7. The slogan used by the first president to be sworn in by a former president, and also the only president (thus far) to be sworn in by a family member?

  8. The slogan that was not actually written down until more than 40 years after it was (allegedly) first uttered?

  9. The slogan that can be anagrammed into the name of a broadcast TV network, a comic book publisher, and a popular candy (singular) OR into a Canadian province, a species of fish, and the last name a notorious former NFL quarterback?

  10. And finally, on a similar note, the slogan that can be anagrammed into the last name of a British head of state who was neither a monarch nor a prime minister, a portion of a roof, and a word that Santa says repeatedly OR a Best Picture-winning film of the 21st century, a Sesame Street character, a species of fish, and a word that means "solemn promise"?

Answers on Friday! (Z)


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