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Spokesman for DeSantis super PAC Admits DeSantis is Way Behind Trump
Back in the 1960s, the Avis rent-a-car company ran an ad campaign saying: "We are #2, so we try harder." It was brilliant and got a lot of attention. Politicians, on the other hand, rarely say: "I'm #2, so I try harder." They all say they are ahead and the best and blah blah blah, no matter what the facts are. So it was somewhat surprising when the spokesman for Gov. Ron DeSantis' (R-FL) super PAC "Never Back Down," Steve Cortes, declared: "Right now, in national polling, we are way behind. I'll be the first to admit that. I believe in being really blunt and really honest. It's an uphill battle."
All of that is true, of course, but it is very rare for any campaign to say that in public. Will that make potential donors more likely to throw money down the rathole? We suspect not, which is why campaigns are always so upbeat in public. Did DeSantis, who makes ads with himself in the middle of a bunch of bodybuilders, approve a comment that posits him as a beta (or maybe gamma or delta) male? We don't know but we suspect Cortes got an earful as soon as DeSantis got word of the comment.
The latest CNN poll has Trump at 47% and DeSantis at 26%. However, in some of the early states it is somewhat closer. If DeSantis were to do surprisingly well in Iowa or New Hampshire, that could change everything. Also, if Trump is indicted in Georgia or again by the feds, that could cost him at least some votes. Also, DeSantis really isn't that well known outside Florida. If he does spectactularly well in the debates, that could really help.
Cortes also said: "If we do not prevail, we will make President Trump better for having this kind of primary." What kind of defeatist talk is that? It's almost like a concession speech. Candidates and their spokespersons never talk about what happens if they lose because they always say they are not going to lose so they haven't even considered what might happen if they lose. DeSantis really needs to have a talk with this guy. (V)
Republicans Are Struggling to Come to a Consensus on Abortion
Democrats have one huge advantage over Republicans this cycle. Virtually all of them are pro-choice and most think an abortion should be available to any woman who asks for one up until at least the end of the second trimester of pregnancy. No infighting there at all, really.
Republicans, in contrast, are badly divided on this issue. Some want to ban the procedure from the moment of conception and some want to allow it for up to 15 weeks. If the limit were set at 15 weeks, many women would move fast on an abortion and a large percentage of them would actually happen. Last year, 93% of abortions happened before the 13th week of pregnancy. Thus setting the cutoff at 15 weeks means that almost all abortions can happen and the ban is very nearly no ban at all.
The problem for the Republicans, of course, is what sells well in the primaries sells very poorly in the general election. Staking out a no-abortions-ever policy might help getting the GOP nomination for whatever office you are running for, but guarantees big trouble in the general election. This is especially true of all high-profile races, particularly the presidential race.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is on the air in Iowa with a proposal for a national 15-week ban. Mike Pence also supports a 15-week ban. However, Ron DeSantis just signed a 6-week ban, putting him in opposition to Scott and Pence. Donald Trump has been very cagey and not taken a hard position on this at all. One detail that is not clear is whether states could have a ban at an earlier time, like 6 weeks? If so, why can't states have a later ban, like 30 weeks?
Some candidates are trying to finesse the issue. Will Hurd said that there aren't 60 votes in the Senate for anything, so there is no point in even talking about a national law since it couldn't be passed anyway. Other folks in the anti-choice world don't like this at all. They want abortion to be central. Ralph Reed, founder of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, said: "What will not work is what our candidates and campaigns tried to do in '22, which was never talk it about it and only talk about inflation and gas prices and think that this would go away." Reed and his ilk don't care a whit about gas prices but they care enormously about abortion and want it front and center.
In any event, having Democrats be united and Republicans bickering can't but help the Democrats on an issue they are going to make the centerpiece of their campaigns up and down the ticket. The sooner Republicans can unite on a position, the better for them, but doesn't seem to be forthcoming any time soon. (V)
Abortion Will Probably Be on the Ballot This Year
Supports of abortion rights in Ohio filed a petition with 710,131 signatures to put an abortion question on the ballot in Nov. 2023. It needs 413,487 valid signatures (10% of the number of people who voted in the most recent gubernatorial election). It will take several weeks before it is known if the initiative made it, but with so many extra signatures, it probably will have enough. If it makes the ballot, it will be the only abortion initiative on the ballot in 2023. If it passes, it will enshrine the right to an abortion in the Ohio Constitution.
However, even if the proposition makes the ballot, getting it passed and part of the state constitution is another matter. There is a special election on Aug. 8 on what is called Issue 1 that, if successful, would change the threshold for initiatives passing from 50% + 1 to 60% + 1. This is patently an attempt to kill off citizens' initiatives, such as the abortion one. If the Aug. 8 initiative passes, henceforth, it will be necessary to get signatures in each of Ohio's 88 counties. Some of them are very small and very rural and very Republican, so any somewhat left-leaning initiative is going to have trouble qualifying. The signature-gathering requirement does not apply to the abortion initiative since its signatures were turned in before the vote on Issue 1.
Currently, abortion is legal in Ohio before 22 weeks of pregnancy because although the legislature passed a tighter ban, the courts have held it up. (V)
Trump Showed Classified Documents on His Patio
Stephanie Grisham, Donald Trump's former press secretary, has said she saw Trump showing classified documents to people on his patio at Mar-a-Lago. This destroys one potential defense Trump has, namely, that some unknown person put a bunch of classified documents in a box under his golf shirts and he didn't know he had them. If an eyewitness says she saw him showing them to people (and presumably people without security clearances), there goes the "I didn't know about them" defense. She isn't the only person to say she saw Trump holding classified documents after he left the White House, but more eyewitnesses makes the case stronger. This is especially true since Trump has now claimed that the documents he was holding during the audio recording made at his Bedminster club were not classified. If Grisham testifies in court that she saw him show documents that she could see were classified to other people, that may be even stronger proof than the audio recording.
It could lso open new charges against Trump. The current federal indictment charges willful retention of classified documents and lying to the FBI about having them. He hasn't yet been charged with revealing classified information to unauthorized people. Based on Grisham's eyewitness remarks, the indictment could be updated to include that as well. Also, no doubt Special Counsel Jack Smith is going to ask Grisham to whom Trump showed the documents and were there any other witnesses? This could open a whole new investigation and add tons of new evidence to the original ones.
Grisham is very angry about Trump's being so casual about classified documents. She knows firsthand how hard it is to get one because the military is so worried about national secrets leaking out. She tried to get one herself and it was denied over a $13 bill that she didn't know about and didn't pay. At the very least, it is probably safe to say that when Smith interviews her, she is not going to try to cover up for Trump. (V)
McCarthy Is Facing a Tough July
Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is lurching from one crisis to another. He got past the debt-ceiling issue, but now the government needs a new budget before Oct. 1. This means passing 12 appropriations bills before mid-September in order to deal with the possibility that the Senate won't swallow them whole. In that case, there will have to be a conference committee to hash out the differences. His problem is that the Freedom Caucus wants to plant bombs in many of the bills and the 18 Republicans who are in districts Joe Biden won do not want any grandstanding. Poor Kevin has to figure out how to somehow get 218 Republicans on board with these bills. Alternatively, he has to work with the Democrats, who have their own wish lists. It won't be easy and if he fails, the government will shut down on Oct. 1 and McCarthy will get blamed.
One possible plan is to kick the can down the road and pass a stopgap bill to fund the government until November or December, but then the problem comes right back. Having to unite the warring factions of his caucus in November or December won't be any easier than now, so what's the point? But kicking the can down the road is what politicians do. It's a longstanding technique for avoiding pain right now. Actually, many people are on vacation now and not paying attention to politics, so passing a bill now will get less attention than passing one in November. Maybe McCarthy is thinking about holding the vote on Christmas Eve.
In the end, McCarthy could opt for smoke and mirrors and accounting tricks to allow each side to claim victory, even though it didn't get what it wants. Or he could work with the Biden 18 and the Democrats and risk a motion to vacate the chair, although if the Freedom Caucus brought that and the Biden 18 voted against vacating the chair, he could survive. (V)
Republicans Have a Mormon Problem
Demographic trends are working against the Republicans. Every presidential cycle another batch of (Democratic-leaning) 14-17 year olds becomes eligible to vote and some number of older Republicans is no longer able to participate in the election. This means the state legislatures have to work harder and harder to find ways to block Democrats from voting. In Arizona and Wisconsin, this doesn't work anymore because the governors are Democrats and they will veto any new restrictive voting laws. In Georgia, it is still possible.
One bit of good news in the past was the Mormon Church. Its members have always been reliably conservative and it is one of the few churches in the country that has a historical track record of growth. Most others are in decline. Growth is a key principle for the Mormons. Young Mormons spend 2 or 3 years as missionaries doing what in other sectors is called "business development," that is, finding new customers. When they come home, they are urged to get married and have large families quickly.
However, in recent years even the Mormon Church is declining. Here is a graph showing the percentage of U.S. adults who identify as Mormons from 2008 to 2022:
Also, LDS members are having fewer children than previously. Among the silent generation and boomers, 39% had at least five children. Among millennials that is 30%.
Another problem for the Church is that younger members are not as reliably Republican as their parents and grandparents. Among Mormons born in the 1940s and 1950s, only 9% are Democrats. Among Mormons born in the 1990s, 33% are Democrats.
Numerically, Mormons are a small group (outside of Utah), but in close elections, every vote could matter. Having to worry about yet another group is not what the Republicans need right now. While Utah's electoral votes are not in doubt, about 6% of Arizona voters are Mormons, and Arizona elections are often decided by less than 6% these days.
It is possible that when Donald Trump finally departs stage right, some younger Mormons will become Republicans. Many of them hate his uncouth personal style, feuds with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), and hatred of Muslims. Mormons have faced discrimination as long as the Church existed, so they tend to react negatively to religious bigotry. But maybe not. In any case, for now, it's yet another "reliable" Republican group that's not so reliable anymore. Suburban women and LDS church members don't have too much in common, but they do have this. (V)
Swing State Donors Are Unhappy with Trump Claims about the 2020 Election
A standard part of Donald Trump's stump speech is how he was cheated in 2020. He rants about it at length every time. Increasingly, some big Republican donors in swing states have had enough. Real estate mogul Ron Weiser, the former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, gave Republicans $4.5 million in 2022, but has since closed his checkbook. He says it is "ludicrous" to claim that Trump, who lost Michigan by 154,000 votes, carried the state, The Michigan Republican Party had $116,000 in the bank as of March 31, 2023. Two years ago it was $867,000. State Chair Kristina Karamo said she was happy breaking ties to big donors in order to focus on grassroots donors.
The Arizona Republican Party is in even worse shape, as it had only $50,000 in the bank on March 31, 2023, down from $770,000 2 years ago. In the last year, it spent over $300,000 on legal fees, much of it to pay lawyers who represented then-chair Kelli Ward, who was part of a plan to certify false electors for Trump in 2020. Another $500,000 was spent on a bus tour of statewide Trump-backed candidates (all of whom lost) and an election night party.
Five other big donors to the Michigan and Arizona parties have stopped ponying up. When the money stops coming in but you are still spending like a drunken sailor, your bank balance dwindles. Many of the donors are talking about bypassing the state parties and donating directly to candidates they like. That's well and good, but the state parties are organized and can put boots on the ground—provided that they have enough money. Also, they can fund critical downballot races for the state legislature that big donors aren't even aware of.
On the other hand, some state Republican parties are in good shape. The North Carolina GOP had $800,000 at the end of last year. (V)
Slotkin Has Another Challenger
The Michigan Democratic Party and the DSCC have anointed Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) as their Senate candidate to fill the seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). Even though she is the overwhelming favorite as a moderate in a swing state, and is an excellent fundraiser with the entire establishment behind her, she is drawing some primary competition. The latest one is actor Hill Harper, who is expected to announce in a few days. He is Black and will run to Slotkin's left. Michigan is not a lefty state and Hill's hill will be extremely steep to climb. If you spend 3 minutes watching Slotkin's kickoff ad, you'll see why Harper has a problem on his hands. It is very emotional and very well done:
In addition to the support of the party establishment, Slotkin also has the backing of EMILY's List, VoteVets, End Citizens United, and the Michigan Building Trades Council. Another problem for Harper is that he is also competing against Michigan State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, former state Rep. Leslie Love, businessperson Nasser Beydoun, and attorney Zack Burns. Michigan doesn't have runoffs, so the person who gets the most votes, wins. Consequently, Harper not only has to beat the much-better-known Slotkin, but also the rest of the pack, including two other Black candidates (Pugh and Love).
Several Republicans have entered the GOP primary, but all of them are complete unknowns. If Slotkin wins the primary, she will be the strong favorite in the general election. (V)
Mondaire Jones is Running Again
Mondaire Jones represented NY-17 (parts of Westchester County and all of Rockland County, north of New York City) from Jan. 2021 to Jan. 2023. After redistricting, he was thrown into the same district as then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D). He was afraid he couldn't beat Maloney in the Democratic primary, so he jumped into NY-10 instead. There he had to run against Dan Goldman, the Democrats' top lawyer during the first impeachment of Donald Trump. Goldman has a B.A. from Yale and a J.D. from Stanford and his great grandfather was the president of Levi Strauss & Co. Bad move for Jones. Goldman beat him in the primary and was easily elected to Congress, where he will probably stay for the next 40 years in the upscale D+35 district, unless he runs for the Senate when Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) retires.
Meanwhile, Jones wants to be back in Congress, so he is moving from NY-10 back to NY-17 and will run for the seat currently occupied by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY). More bad luck for Jones. He's got a another tough opponent. He just can't seem to find a nice district with no other Democrats. Maybe he should move to Wyoming. Not much primary competition there.
Jones' problem in NY-17 is that he will face Liz Whitmer Gereghty, the sister of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), who is frequently mentioned as a 2028 presidential candidate. Needless to say, the two-term Michigan governor is extremely well plugged into the Democratic Party and its donors, and will be able to give her sibling an assist. Unlike Jones, who seems to move around a lot, Gereghty has lived in the district for over 20 years and is on a local school board. Jones is not exactly a carpetbagger, but more of an opportunist. Voters don't like that.
The new NY-17 is a swing district (D+3), which is why a Republican was able to win it. Gereghty, who is a moderate and who owns a small shop in Katonah selling funky accessories and gifts to teenagers and young adults, is probably a better fit for the district as presently constituted than the progressive Jones. It's going to be Bernie vs. Hillary, Part 673. The district is high on the list of districts the Democrats want to flip, so a lot of money is going to pour in. Couple that with its proximity to the media world of New York City (it's a 44-minute ride and $11.25 on the Metro North Railroad from Grand Central Terminal to the district) and both the primary and the general election are going to be extremely high profile races. (V)
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