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Note: There are a few folks who don't think the 2022 elections are over (we are looking at you, Kari Lake). However, we think they are over now, so we have switched the map to the presidential election, using the 2024 EV values. If the states go the same way in 2024 as in 2020, the Democrat will get three EVs fewer than Joe Biden got in 2020. You can get to the 2024 Senate page by using the "Click for Senate" link in the blue bar above the map. If you spot any errors anywhere on the site, please let us know.
Democratic-controlled States Are Protecting Voters
See if you can guess which states are trying to make it easier to vote, rather than harder. If you guessed that it was the states where Democrats have a new trifecta, you got it partly right. Now that Michigan and Maryland have Democratic trifectas, they are busy expanding voting rights. But there are other states as well, including Connecticut, Minnesota, New Jersey and New Mexico, that are actively in the process of expanding voting rights.
The states are implementing a variety of new measures. They include prohibiting local governments from changing voting procedures, banning methods used for voter suppression and intimidation, mandating the printing of ballots in more languages, increasing protections for voters with disabilities, making it easier for former felons to vote, and ordering state judges to prioritize election-related challenges.
Different states have different ideas about how to do some of these things. For example, the bill in Maryland mirrors the federal Voting Rights Act, major parts of which were struck down by the Supreme Court. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) wants to prohibit all firearms in and near polling places. A proposal in New Mexico would make it a felony to intimidate an election official. Connecticut legislators are working to provide assistance for speakers of Asian and Native American languages for languages spoken by at least 2% of the voters. Legislators in Minnesota are working on a bill to automatically restore voting rights to felons when they are released from prison. It would also allow 16- and 17-year-olds to preregister so they could vote as soon as they hit 18.
Naturally, few, if any, Republican-controlled states are trying to make it easier to vote, and many of them are trying to make it harder to vote. (V)
Congressional Republicans Oppose Student Loan Relief
Joe Biden has unilaterally canceled $400 billion in student debt. Tomorrow, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on whether he has the authority to do that. More than half of congressional Republicans have filed an amicus brief supporting the view that only Congress has the power to cancel student debt, not the president.
The law is not clear on this. The HEROES Act of 2003 grants to the secretary of education the power to waive student debt in the face of an emergency. Biden is claiming that the emergency declaration, on account of the COVID-19 pandemic, triggers that power. The state of Missouri has sued to stop the debt relief because a private company in Missouri, MOHELA, handles student loans and would lose revenue if there are fewer loans to service. However, the company itself has not sued. Also, the amount of debt relief Missouri students would get probably greatly outweighs the loss MOHELA would take, resulting in a net gain for the state.
Another argument the administration will make is technical, but could carry weight if the justices decide to operate in good faith. The argument is that the plaintiffs don't have standing to sue. Under longstanding precedent, you can only sue someone (or the government) if the defendant has harmed you personally. How has giving some people debt relief hurt anyone? Sure, you might have liked some, too, but the relief isn't set up so that if the students didn't get debt relief, someone else would have automatically gotten it. In other words, Joan Q. Student's debt relief did not take money out of Jack F. Student's pocket.
There is a legal concept of the "major questions doctrine," which asserts that federal agencies have too much power and can only do things if Congress has specifically authorized them. In this case, the argument is that only Congress can provide debt relief. However, conservatives want to use this doctrine in a much broader sense. For example, if the EPA wants to ban chemical XYZ as carcinogenic, conservatives believe that the EPA can't do that unless Congress has passed a law banning XYZ by name. This case could be a stalking horse for the major questions doctrine and an attempt to greatly limit what executive agencies can do.
The politics are very clear, however. The people who would benefit from student debt reduction all went to college. Nowadays, people who went to college tend to vote for Democrats, so denying them debt relief sticks it to them. That is the first win. Then there is the matter that most other government loans are not forgiven. For example, if you borrowed money from the Small Business Administration to buy a truck, you have to pay it back. Blue-collar workers who vote Republican may find it unfair that college loans are being forgiven but truck loans are not being forgiven. Thus forgiving college loans but not other loans riles up the GOP base. That is the second win.
However, the latter point is a bit more complicated. During the pandemic, many small businesses got loans to keep the business afloat and many of those were forgiven. Small business owners tend to be Republicans. As far as we can see, the 43 Republican senators who oppose loan forgiveness for Democratic-leaning college attendees haven't complained about loan forgiveness for Republican-leaning small business owners. Yes, the loan circumstances are different, but why is forgiving one kind of loan bad but forgiving a different kind of loan good?
Will the justices' personal experience influence how they vote? Who knows? But we do know that they are aware how student debt can affect one's life. Clarence Thomas once described his student loans as a "crushing weight." His friends told him to declare bankruptcy, but he didn't and paid them off, although it took him 20 years. He is surely thinking: "I did it, so others can, too." Justices John Roberts and Neil Gorsuch don't want their kids to take on crushing loans, so they have tax-free college savings accounts with $600,000 and $300,000, respectively. They are probably thinking: "If you want to go to college, just ask your parents to put half a million, give or take, in a savings account for you." Amy Coney Barrett and Ketanji Brown Jackson also have college savings accounts for their kids, but with smaller amounts in them.
The hearing will probably be heated but a decision is not expected until June. (V)
DeSantis Leads Trump in California Poll
California could be the biggest battle of all for the Republicans. Not in the general election, since no Republican presidential candidate has carried the state since 1988. But in the Republican primary it looms very large because it has more delegates than any other state, roughly 169 out of about 2,467 (7%). Consequently, the stakes are high there for Republican candidates.
A new poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies has Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) leading Donald Trump by 17 points among Republican voters in California in a head-to-head matchup. When Nikki Haley and other potential candidates are thrown into the mix, DeSantis' lead decreases, but he is still first. In 2016, California was a winner-take-all state for Republicans. If the state Republican Party opts for that again in 2024, even if DeSantis' margin is just 1 vote, he all get all 169 or so delegates. The exact number of delegates per state isn't final yet. It is based on a complicated formula in which states get bonus delegates for electing Republicans to state and federal office, and for other factors.
For California's 5.2 million Republican voters, this is their big chance. Normally nobody cares what they think or want, but delivering a huge bloc of delegates to Trump or DeSantis early on could greatly affect the who the eventual nominee is. DeSantis understands this very well. He is going to California this week to campaign—no, scratch that, to "raise money for state Republicans." If Trump eventually figures out how the primaries work, he could spend time in California as well, even though he detests the state (and, in fairness, it pretty much detests him). Both of them can expect to be relentlessly attacked by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) when they show up.
The same poll showed that even Californians are not enthusiastic about Kamala Harris running for president in the event that Biden declines to run. Only 41% of Democrats want to see her run. Even among Black Democrats, only 56% are enthusiastic about her. But the issue will be moot if Biden runs, of course. (V)
Florida Bill Would Give the Governor Near Total Control of the State Universities
Just in case you had the idea that Ron DeSantis was all bark and no bite, this is a good time to forget that. A new bill introduced into the state legislature (at DeSantis' request) would fundamentally change the way Florida's 12 public universities, with an enrollment of 400,000 students, operate. It would, in effect, transfer most of the power to determine how the universities are run to the governor and his appointees. The bill, part of the agenda DeSantis presented last month, hasn't passed yet, but Republicans have huge majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and when DeSantis says "Jump!" Republican legislators generally say "How high?"
The bill has several sections. These ones getting the most publicity probably aren't the most important ones, though. These would ban majors in gender studies (which exist) and Critical Race Theory (which do not exist). It would also ban taking diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) into account when university decisions are made. The bill also states that core courses "may not suppress or distort significant historical events or include a curriculum that teaches identity politics, such as Critical Race Theory, or defines American history as contrary to the creation of a new nation based on universal principles stated in the Declaration of Independence."
But the most important item in the bill would require the board of trustees at each university to approve all hires. The boards are appointed by the governor. This means that the boards would have the power to grill all candidates for jobs as professor, dean, provost, president, etc., on their views concerning DEI and probably almost anything else the boards want to ask about. Board staff members could be instructed to scour all the candidates' published work for hints of wokeness so that when a finalist or finalists are presented to the board for final approval or selection, the members would know what to ask about.
The bill would also allow the boards to review anyone's tenure status at any time, so even if a professor managed to get hired, if he or she made some negative comment about the governor or said something that might be construed as woke and a student reported it, the board could fire the professor.
Jeremy Young of PEN America, a group dedicated to preservation of academic freedom in America, said: "It is the most draconian bill that we've seen in the entire country relating to higher education. We are absolutely concerned about copycat bills in other states and about this spreading to be a national movement."
It is crystal clear that one of DeSantis' main issues during his presidential campaign will be education, from kindergarten through college. He wants to make sure that only conservative viewpoints are taught at all levels. This is far to the right of Donald Trump, who isn't terribly interested in education, and will allow DeSantis to try to outflank Trump on the right. While this strategy may work in the primaries, it is certain to enrage Democrats and may drive the remaining college-educated voters who are still Republicans into the Democratic camp. Whether blue-collar voters will get excited about the powers of boards of trustees remains to be seen. But Desantis understands that unless he wins the nomination, it doesn't matter how well his strategy will play in the general election. He is now laser-focused on winning the nomination. (V)
Trump Is Starting to Run a Conventional Campaign
Normal politicians running for office do things like raise money, hire experienced staff, visit early primary states, and write a platform. Donald Trump is not a normal politician, but this time around he is starting to act like one—in contrast to his previous runs.
The former president has the raising money part down pat, but he is now also starting on the other parts. Trump has hired Susie Wiles, an expert on campaigns (especially in Florida), veteran pollster Tony Fabrizio and policy adviser Vince Haley. More will follow, but these are a solid foundation.
Trump is also starting to make policy proposals under the rubric "Agenda47." He is expected to have proposals for opposing environmental, social and governance investing (i.e., money spent to fight climate change); fighting crime; and boosting the production of American energy. For example, he is expected to propose that any local police department getting federal funds return to the stop-and-frisk policies used in the past and widely condemned as racist. On energy, he would once again take the U.S. out of the Paris accord on climate change and approve all new energy projects (e.g., oil drilling) very quickly. Since Ron DeSantis is surely going to have detailed platform proposals (see above on education), Trump apparently feels he needs some, too. What is unusual here is not in the nature of the platform planks, but that he is making them at all. After all, the Republicans didn't even draw up a platform in 2020. They just said: "We approve of everything Donald Trump wants."
Trump also plans to travel around and hold rallies, especially in early states. He went to East Palestine, OH, last Wednesday to blast the Biden administration for the train wreck there that left poisonous chemicals in the ground and air. More trips are upcoming.
Nevertheless, Trump is not going to become a conventional politician. He will still rant and scream, but behind the scenes he will operate somewhat more like normal candidate than he has in the past. He probably dimly understands that DeSantis is a force to be reckoned with and not the second coming of Jeb! (V)
Haley Supported the Right of States to Secede When She Ran for Governor
One of the things that goes with running for office is oppo research. Nikki Haley is about to discover that positions that are fine when you are running for governor of South Carolina are not always so fine when you are running for (vice) president.
In 2010, when she was running for governor, Haley did an interview with a group called the Palmetto Patriots. One of the interviewers was Robert Slimp, a pastor and former board member of the Council of Conservative Citizens. This is a white supremacy group that supports a white nationalist ideology and opposes nonwhite immigration. Dylann Roof, who killed nine people at a Black church in Charleston in 2015, took his moral guidance from the group.
Haley made some interesting remarks in the interview, which she is now going to have to deal with. For example, she described the Civil War—which, as she well knows, began in South Carolina—as two sides fighting for different values. One fought for tradition and one fought for change. Sorta right, but she didn't elaborate on what Team Change was trying to change or what value Team Values was trying to protect.
In the interview, Haley also defended the right of states to secede from the Union. Some people think that Abraham Lincoln & co. settled that discussion once and for all, but apparently not for Haley. When asked if South Carolina could secede again, she said it probably wouldn't get to that point. Note that this answer is different from "No." She doesn't have a law degree, so perhaps she doesn't know that in 1869 the Supreme Court ruled that states do not have a right to secede, but this would be a good time to check that out before doing any more interviews.
Haley also supported "Confederate Heritage Month" and compared it to "Black History Month." She said that it is fine that people in the South have traditions they want to celebrate. She also supported the flying of the Confederate Battle Flag from the state Capitol, though as governor she had it taken down after Roof's attack on the church.
It will be interesting to hear what she has to say when reporters ask her if she still thinks states have the right to secede and if she now thinks they don't, what made her change her mind. (V)
Yellen Won't Negotiate about the Debt Limit
One of the key players in the upcoming debt-limit fight is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Joe Biden is already deploying her to get a head start on the battle. During the weekend she gave a speech in which she said that she was prepared to negotiate with the Republicans over the deficit but not over the debt. She asked the Republicans to come up with a plan for next year's spending, but she said the United States "can't bargain over whether or not we're going to pay our bills. It's simply a fundamental responsibility a government has."
It is likely that she will bring up her willingness to negotiate about the budget but not about the debt many times going forward, because Republicans are trying to confuse voters about what the debt battle actually is about. It is about paying for programs that Congress approved in the past. It is not about future spending. Many voters do not understand that crucial difference. After all, both "debt" and "deficit" begin with a "d."
Yellen also said that when Tax Day comes and goes, she will have a better idea of how long she can find tricks to keep the debt under the legal limit. She thinks she could manage it until June. The Congressional Budget Office thinks she might be able to make it to September.
It is very unlikely that Biden and Yellen will allow the country to default on its debt. If the Republicans refuse to budge, there are three potential ways out. One is to convince five House Republicans to vote with the Democrats to increase the debt limit with no conditions. Since 18 House Republicans are in districts that Biden won, he may have some leverage with them (e.g., promising not to personally campaign in their districts if they vote with the Democrats and promising to definitely campaign in their districts if they refuse).
Another one is to claim that the Fourteenth Amendment's provision that the public debt shall not be questioned means that the Treasury can just continue to issue debt since the Constitution overrides any mere law. The third option is to issue one or more trillion-dollar coins and deposit them in the Fed's bank account. But these are clearly last resorts. Biden would clearly prefer to make some deal about next year's spending in return for a clean debt-limit increase rather than use the latter two approaches. (V)
Nebraska State Senator Will Use Filibuster to Protect Abortion
You surely knew that the U.S. Senate has a filibuster, but did you know that 13 states also have it in their state Senates? These are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, South Carolina, Texas, Utah and Vermont. In Nebraska, (Democratic) state Sen. Machaela Cavanaugh plans to filibuster every bill until the Republicans drop their plan to ban abortion (and also to outlaw gender-affirming health care).
Nebraska has a unicameral legislature, but the members are known as state senators due to its history. Originally, Nebraska had a bicameral legislature, but the two chambers often fought with each other. In 1931, then-senator George Norris argued that the bicameral legislature is a copy of the British parliament, with its unrepresentative House of Lords. He said one chamber ought to be abolished. In 1934, the voters approved a constitutional amendment abolishing the state House and transferring its powers to the state Senate.
Cavanaugh, one of just 17 Democrats in the 49-member chamber, said: "If this legislature collectively decides that legislating hate against children is our priority, then I am going to make it painful; painful for everyone. Because if you want to inflict pain upon our children, I am going to inflict pain upon this body."
Specifically, Cavanaugh wants Republicans to withdraw two bills. One bans almost all abortions after a fetal heartbeat can be detected. The other, called the "Let Them Grow Act," bans health-care professionals from providing gender-affirming care to anyone under 19.
Whether the filibusters succeed depends on how much stamina Cavanaugh has and whether any of the other 16 Democratic state senators join her. If no other senators join her, it is very unlikely that she could stand and talk for even 48 hours, let alone indefinitely. In that case, they Republicans could just let her talk until she dropped, then call for a vote. However, if all 17 Democrats filibustered every bill, they could really gum up the works. (V)
Christian Nationalists Are Moving to North Idaho
During the 1960s, there was a movement among California hippies to move to Alpine County (pop. 1,344) to take it over and elect a county sheriff who wouldn't enforce the laws against the evil weed. The locals were not keen on this and it didn't happen. Now the right has an analogous plan. Conservatives are moving to North Idaho, making Idaho one of the fastest growing states. This time there is no opposition from the locals, though, as all the counties in the "panhandle" are already well stocked with extreme libertarians, preppers, and Christian nationalists who are hanging out there until America collapses so they can take over. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) went to Coeur D'Alene there recently to egg the locals on.
North Idaho gives a preview of what America might become if the Christian nationalists take over. During the pandemic, when the Coeur D'Alene city council was debating taking federal funds to support health measures, speaker after speaker opposed taking them, describing the measures as "government tyranny." Churches in the area refused to close, even as the pandemic peaked. A popular local pastor, Douglas Wilson, argued in favor of fake vaccination cards. In an interview with a reporter, he tended to play down his church's publicly stated goal of making the city a "Christian town." But he didn't downplay his plan for a pan-Protestant town—Catholics would not be welcome. Nor would liberal Protestants. That doesn't bode well for Jews, Muslims, and Hindus. LDS Church members are OK, though. In his view, everyone except conservative Protestants would be banned from holding public office. He didn't think this was so unusual, since Puritans in the Massachusetts Bay Colony executed Quakers.
The political influence of all the churches in the area is growing. One church welcomed a group of 15 candidates for state and local office in October. They all tied their campaigns to Christianity and all said they would govern using biblical values. Twelve of them were elected and proceeded to try to ban absentee voting, prohibit school instruction on sexuality or gender identity before fifth grade, and ban books depicting homosexuality from libraries. Our staff theologian is trying to find the passages in the Bible that speak to the evils of absentee voting, but she has not had success as yet.
Last September, the Reawaken America tour, an unabashed Christian nationalist group that mixes right-wing politics, baseless election claims, and antagonism toward COVID-19 health measures, camped out nearby. Michael Flynn and Eric Trump showed up. It is not known if Flynn and Trump participated in the night-time baptisms performed by a local preacher. It may have been too risky; we have a pretty good idea of what happens when holy water makes contact with a Trump.
Transplants from other states don't ask realtors about property taxes or schools. They ask for property that is defensible, with clear firing lanes in the event of an invasion. Most are preppers and all are Christians. They see this as America's last, best chance. (V)
Carter's Legacy: Why Not Me?
Numerous media outlets have already published Jimmy Carter's obituary (even though he is still alive, albeit in hospice care at home). All of them talk about his career as a peanut farmer, naval officer, governor, president, and his post-presidential work. They talk about his lasting achievements as president, including the deregulation of the airline industry and the Camp David Accords. But something nearly all of them miss is the model he set for future POTUS wannabes.
Look at the guys who came before Carter. Gerald Ford was vice president when he took over after Richard Nixon resigned. Nixon himself had been senator and vice president before winning the White House. Lyndon Johnson was vice president and before that Senate Majority Leader when John Kennedy was assassinated. Kennedy was a U.S. senator when he was elected president. Dwight Eisenhower was a five-star general and war hero when he was elected president. Most previous presidents held some high civilian office, like vice president, senator, or high-profile governor of a powerful state, or at least were a general who had won a war. There were some exceptions (like one-term congressman Abraham Lincoln) but not so many in the past century.
Carter was an exception. When he ran for president, nobody outside of Georgia had ever heard of him. Pundits mocked his candidacy as absurd and pointless. But he won. Now numerous candidates in both parties look back at Carter and think: "Why not me?" That is his biggest legacy: a virtually unknown small-state governor who didn't do anything noteworthy ran for president and won, and now all manner of people who are the longest of long shots think they can be the next Carter.
Interestingly enough, many of the people who would normally be strong candidates—sitting senators—are not running in 2024. Republican Sens. Tom Cotton (AR), Ted Cruz (TX), Joni Ernst (IA), Josh Hawley (MO), Rand Paul (KY), Mitt Romney (UT), and Rick Scott (FL) have already ruled out runs. The only senator who might run is Tim Scott (R-SC), but like Carter he is the longest of long shots. And unlike Nikki Haley, who is almost certainly running for veep on a DeSantis ticket, he not only won't get the GOP presidential nomination, he also won't get the vice presidential nomination. We don't see the point of a run.
As an aside, just in case you think the electoral map is frozen and nothing ever changes, except who wins Arizona and Georgia by ½ a percent, on the left below is the map 1976 Electoral College map that got Carter elected. To the right of it is the 2020 map.
Compare the 1976 map with the 2020 map. Eleven states (including D.C.) stayed blue (D.C., Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin). Twelve states stayed red (Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming). But an astounding 28 states flipped (Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia).
In 1976, the Democrats won five states west of the Mississippi (Minnesota, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas). In 2020, of these they won only Minnesota, but they picked up seven other states in the West. And the South was solid for the Democrats in 1976, except for Virginia. That flipped completely in 2020, except for Carter's home state of Georgia. Stuff changes. (V)
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