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There Are No Secrets When It Comes to President Trump v2.0
Donald Trump has no sense of humor and does not make jokes. When he does seem to be "joking," what he's really doing is floating a trial balloon, so that he can soften things up a bit when he puts controversial stuff out there. More specifically, when he "jokes" that he plans to rule as a dictator on his first day in office, believe him (on the other hand, you should not believe that it will only last one day).
Trump, and his enablers, are serious enough about this that they've already prepped a detailed agenda for the early days and weeks of President Trump v2.0. We've already written a little bit about this, but it's worth repeating:
- Reinterpreting the Constitution: The most aggressive measure, and the "crown jewel" from
the point of view of Trump and his team, is an executive order (read it
here)
that would supposedly bring an end to birthright citizenship. Obviously, a president cannot rewrite the Constitution AND
Supreme Court precedent with an executive order, but the move will thrill the base nonetheless, and it will take some
time for the courts to smack Trump down. Meanwhile, the XO will surely lead to an uptick in acts of anti-immigrant
violence.
- Reinventing the Government: The other "highlight" is the order Trump has promised that
would re-classify vast numbers of federal employees as Schedule F, and thus fireable by Trump. He would then stack the
bureaucracy with sycophants.
- Fighting the Culture Wars: Anyone and everyone in conservative politics is champing at the bit to have Trump issue XOs that would strike back at those confounded diversity-loving liberal commie pinko sex pervert Democrats. Should he win another term, he might literally sign dozens of orders on Day One that would do things like ban the teaching of Critical Race Theory at any school that receives federal funds, ban federal funding for gender affirming treatments, and eliminate any Biden XOs meant to promote diversity.
A lot of these orders are meant to be complementary; for example, staffing the federal government with loyalists will make it much easier to use the bureaucracy to fight the culture wars.
The message, incidentally, is clearly being received. This week, The Daily Mail released the results of an interesting poll in which 1,000 respondents were asked to choose a single word that describes what Joe Biden wants from a second term and what Donald Trump wants from a second term. Here is the word cloud produced from the Biden responses:
And here is the Trump word cloud:
Neither is optimal for a would-be president, but the Trump cloud is outright scary.
Of course, there's no way to know the partisan ID of the respondents most responsible for "revenge," "power" and "dictatorship" figuring so prominently in Trump's cloud. Maybe it was Democrats and independents, maybe it was Republicans, maybe it was all of the above. In any event, just in case his base hasn't gotten the message, Trump promptly posted his word cloud to his failing boutique social media platform.
In short, we can't say we weren't warned. (Z)
Ramaswamy Campaign Enters Death Spiral...
Yesterday, Vivek Ramaswamy's presidential "campaign" made a big announcement: It is going to stop running TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire. Instead, it will "follow the data" and invest in other kinds of advertising.
When Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) made this same announcement, it was the beginning of the end for him, and he was out of the race within a couple of weeks. The same is true of Mike Pence. It is true that TV advertising isn't as useful as it once was. But it's also true that TV advertising is relatively cheap in both states, and that with such intense competition for a small number of votes, every opportunity to do some messaging matters.
Meanwhile, if "follow the data" was actually a shrewd strategy, and not a euphemism for "we're starting to pack up shop," then surely the Silicon Valley guy, of all candidates, would have figured it out before burning through millions of dollars that largely came from his own pocket. And actually, if "follow the data" was the plan, then the data says that Ramaswamy has no hope of competing for the Republican nomination, and that he should drop out yesterday.
Ramaswamy has his tiny number of fans, and the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are not too far off, so maybe he'll hang on until they're over and then drop out. That said, once the money begins to run out, it gets very difficult for candidates to drag themselves out of bed every day at 5:00 a.m. for a day of speeches to dinky crowds, sampling corn fritters at Mom's Diner, and media hits on third-tier right-wing networks. So, Ramaswamy might just throw in the towel before any votes are cast. Either way, he's cooked, and now the whole world knows it. (Z)
...Meanwhile, Can Ronna Romney McDaniel Last the Year?
RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel is just awful at her job. She might well be the worst RNC chair in the history of the Party. Let's do a quick rundown of her litany of failures:
- Elections: The #1 job of a party chair is to win elections, and the Republican Party has
been on a terrible run since McDaniel took over in 2017. In 2018, the Republicans did hold the Senate, but they lost big
in House races, with the Democrats netting 41 seats and control of the lower chamber. In 2020, the Republicans lost the
White House and the Senate while failing to reclaim the House. In 2022, the "red wave" became a red splash; Republicans
did re-take the House (barely), but saw the Democrats grow their majority in the Senate by one seat. And off-year
elections have not been any friendlier, including the numerous disasters this November, particularly in Virginia. Oh,
and don't forget loss after loss anytime an abortion initiative has been on the ballot.
- Strategy: Speaking of abortion, there is no sign that McDaniel has the faintest idea how
to help the Party juggle that hot potato in 2024. Rather than acknowledge that it's an Achilles' heel for the GOP,
she keeps
doubling and tripling down on the notion that anti-choice is a winner, even though polls AND election results say it
most certainly is not. It's true that this may be a Gordian knot that cannot be solved, but a party leader needs to come
up with something more than the head-in-the-sand routine.
- Fundraising: The #2 job of a party chair, which is obviously closely connected with job
#1, is to raise money. McDaniel has been a failure here, as well. The RNC has consistently lagged the DNC during her
tenure, and usually by a fair margin. Right now,
there is just
$9.1 million in the RNC's bank account, the lowest figure since 2015. McDaniel insists that we're just not into
fundraising season yet, but the DNC's take for Q3 was double that of the RNC, while the DNC also has more than $20
million cash on hand.
- Debates: This year's Republican candidates' debates were nothing short of an embarrassment
for the RNC. First there was the silly "loyalty pledge" requirement, which no one took seriously. Then there was the
Committee's inability to get their likely nominee to show up for the debates. The debates themselves were poorly
moderated, and were largely given over to godawful broadcast partners, with NewsNation being a particular low. It's gone
so badly that McDaniel threw up her hands, said the RNC was done organizing debates and that if there were going to be
any more meetings, someone else could handle it (CNN and ABC both stepped forward).
- Trump: Obviously, a sizable chunk of the problems outlined above can be traced right back to one Donald J. Trump. He's dragging the party down at election time. He is sucking up money that might otherwise go to the RNC. He is refusing to debate. But the fact is that he's the effective head of the party, and it's the job of the RNC chair to find a way to work with him. McDaniel has never had the slightest luck with influencing Trump, trying to get him to be a team player, trying to get him to tone it down, etc. That most other people would have failed at the same task does not change the fact that McDaniel failed spectacularly.
All of this said, McDaniel's flaws and failures were well known when she was reelected to a third term as RNC Chair. So, clearly an inability to do things like win elections and raise money are not entirely disqualifying. However, she's now got two additional problems on her ledger:
- The Phone Call: As we
noted earlier this week,
McDaniel was not only a party to the Donald Trump call in which he tried to persuade Michigan officials not to certify
the vote, she also offered a quid pro quo in which free legal help would be given in exchange for the officials' defiance.
This is likely illegal.
Donald Trump is thus far bulletproof when it comes to crimes and/or alleged crimes. The same is not true of his underlings. It could be that the members of the RNC decide that McDaniel can't handle a presidential election and a potential criminal proceeding at the same time. It could also be that the RNC throws her under the bus to try to save Trump ("Donald Trump and the RNC don't support this kind of behavior, and anyone who does has to go!"). It is also possible, since the matter is pretty simple, that McDaniel ends up convicted, or accepting a plea deal, in short order. We're not dialed in when it comes to the upper echelons of the Republican Party, but Karl Rove is, and he thinks McDaniel is "in trouble." - Trump: Two things are true of Trump, and are relevant here: (1) He invariably grows weary of fawning underlings, and turns on them, not unlike Joseph Stalin did; (2) Any Republican failures are someone else's fault and not his. Taken together, the only question is "How long until McDaniel is in Trump's doghouse?" And the answer is: "She already is." Trump has reportedly "soured" on McDaniel, in part because of his own proclivities, and in part because he's getting constant earsful from nervous conservatives about how bad she is. Trump cannot fire McDaniel, per se, but he can make her position untenable and effectively force her to step down.
It is at least possible that McDaniel weathers the storm, either because it's unwise to change horses midstream, or because there's nobody else who is qualified and is willing to take the job. That said, if we were betting whether or not McDaniel will still be in her job one year from now, we'd bet against it. Heck, her position might be tenuous enough that it could be time to launch a Ronna Romney McDaniel head of lettuce cam. (Z)
Nearly 10 Million Americans Will Get Raises Due to Minimum Wage Increases
On January 1, new minimum wage laws will take effect in 22 states, along with 38 cities and counties. The left-leaning Economic Policy Institute (EPI) has crunched the numbers, and projects that 9.9 million workers will take home bigger paychecks as a result.
A few of the more specific findings from EPI:
- The increases are mostly happening in blue states, counties, and cities, as you might guess. However,
there are some states with competitive elections that are included, among them Alaska, Arizona, Michigan,
Minnesota and Vermont.
- Considerably more than half the workers who benefit (57.9%) will be women.
- Black, and particularly Latino, workers will also benefit disproportionately to their participation in the workforce.
The former are 9% of the workers in the wage-raising states but will receive 11.1% of the benefits; for the latter it
is 19.6% and 37.9%.
- About 25.8% of the benefits will go to parents in working families.
- The biggest increase, $2/hour, is in Hawaii. The smallest, 23 cents an hour, is in Michigan. However, there is a pending case before the Michigan Supreme Court that could increase that a fair bit.
Predicting how changes in the economy will affect elections is something of a fool's errand. But we pass this along because "my wages aren't keeping up with inflation" is clearly something that is hurting the Democrats, and the increase in minimum wages, while not enormous, is going to be felt substantially by groups the blue team really needs in 2024. (Z)
Priorities, Priorities...
We say again, it's a slow week for political news, so we have to work extra hard to find interesting things to talk about. For example, Wikipedia just released its list of the most viewed articles of 2023. Here it is:
| Rank | 2023 |
| 1 | ChatGPT |
| 2 | Deaths in 2023 |
| 3 | 2023 Cricket World Cup |
| 4 | Oppenheimer (film) |
| 5 | J. Robert Oppenheimer |
| 6 | Cricket World Cup |
| 7 | Jawan (film) |
| 8 | Taylor Swift |
| 9 | The Last of Us (TV series) |
| 10 | Pathaan (film) |
| 11 | Barbie (film) |
| 12 | Premier League |
| 13 | The Idol (TV series) |
| 14 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 15 | United States |
| 16 | Matthew Perry |
| 17 | Lionel Messi |
| 18 | Animal (2023 film) |
| 19 | Elon Musk |
| 20 | India |
| 21 | Avatar: The Way of Water |
| 22 | Lisa Marie Presley |
| 23 | Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 |
| 24 | Leo (2023 Indian film) |
| 25 | Andrew Tate |
Clearly, people are most interested in popular entertainment, sports, dead celebrities and scandalous celebrities.
Now, let us add in the lists for 2020 and 2016:
| Rank | 2023 | 2020 | 2016 |
| 1 | ChatGPT | COVID-19 pandemic | Donald Trump |
| 2 | Deaths in 2023 | Donald Trump | Deaths in 2016 |
| 3 | 2023 Cricket World Cup | Deaths in 2020 | Prince (musician) |
| 4 | Oppenheimer (film) | Kamala Harris | United States presidential election, 2016 |
| 5 | J. Robert Oppenheimer | Joe Biden | Suicide Squad (film) |
| 6 | Cricket World Cup | Coronavirus | List of Bollywood films of 2016 |
| 7 | Jawan (film) | Kobe Bryant | David Bowie |
| 8 | Taylor Swift | COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory | Melania Trump |
| 9 | The Last of Us (TV series) | Elizabeth II | Captain America: Civil War |
| 10 | Pathaan (film) | 2020 United States presidential election | Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice |
| 11 | Barbie (film) | Spanish flu | Hillary Clinton |
| 12 | Premier League | Elon Musk | Deadpool (film) |
| 13 | The Idol (TV series) | 2016 United States presidential election | Elizabeth II |
| 14 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Coronavirus disease 2019 | United States |
| 15 | United States | Michael Jordan | Muhammad Ali |
| 16 | Matthew Perry | COVID-19 pandemic in the United States | Pablo Escobar |
| 17 | Lionel Messi | COVID-19 pandemic in India | Barack Obama |
| 18 | Animal (2023 film) | Sushant Singh Rajput | Game of Thrones |
| 19 | Elon Musk | QAnon | The Revenant (2015 film) |
| 20 | India | Chadwick Boseman | UEFA Euro 2016 |
| 21 | Avatar: The Way of Water | Parasite (2019 film) | Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
| 22 | Lisa Marie Presley | United States | Game of Thrones (season 6) |
| 23 | Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | Princess Margaret, Countess of Snowdon | 2016 Summer Olympics |
| 24 | Leo (2023 Indian film) | YouTube | Carrie Fisher |
| 25 | Andrew Tate | United States Electoral College | O.J. Simpson |
We often observe that, until the election cycle really heats up, most people aren't paying attention. This struck us as an opportunity to back that with at least a smidgen of data. We put overtly political articles in purple; none such appear in the 2023 list, but several appear in the two election year lists. Of course, even in election years, politics is just another item on the "interest" list, along with the evergreens of dead celebrities, popular movies and sports.
We could have added extra purple cells if we had included politics-related stuff, like the COVID articles. It starts to get tricky, though, because there are some entries that seem like they might be about following politics, but really aren't. For example, every time a British royal shows up, it's not because of U.K. politics, but instead because of people watching the show The Crown.
Anyhow, this is hardly a doctoral dissertation when it comes to rigor, but we think it's interesting nonetheless. (Z)
A December to Rhymember, Part XVII: It Can Happen Here
Today, just one selection, because it's a pretty long one from P.R.M. in Atlanta, GA:
Lamentations on the Global State of Democracy in 2023 (in the Fashion of Oscar Hammerstein)
Moscow and Tehran and Pyong Yang and Beijing
Putin, the Mullahs, Kim Jong-Un, Xi Jingping
Places where all hope of justice has sailed
Dissents in a coffin that's durably nailed
Bong Bong and Javi and Orban and Modi
Narcissistic bullies enabled by toadies
Each of these risibly wannabe kings
With neo-fascism are having flings
With the courts stacked
With the jails crammed
With the press neutered
They know where to look for their opposition
'cause most of them are interred.
Bibi hates Knesset and Rishi hates Commons
Le Pen and Wilders just throw verbal bombs in
Left to their own the result is not veiled
Crocodile tears when democracy's failed.
Georgia Meloni and Mateusz Morawiecki
Tell us their foes are degenerate sickies
Dreaming of dynasties longer than Mings
They think elections are optional things
Days are too long
Prices too high
People feeling down
The demagogues say that the people at fault
Are people unlike us, brown
And here at home it seems gone are the days
Of Congress locating its own means and ways
Just watch some C-SPAN to blanche and to quail
Then toke on some cable, just do not inhale
Fake news, false outrage, Sean Hannity bristles
Bug-eyed, foam-mouthed Tucker Carlson epistles
Twenty-four-seven all arrows and slings
Loathing and fear from which much profit springs
But if you think
That's all elsewhere
It can't happen here
Remember that Trump's nomination's secure
And pray he's in jail mid-year.
We try to match the day's poem(s) with the day's news items, but tomorrow we may have to put that aside, because we have a group we've been holding onto for 2 weeks and time is running out. In any event, if the muse strikes, send your submissions to comments@electoral-vote.com. (Z)
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