State Averages for Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for all the Senate races calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Will Boyd 31% Katie Britt 67% +36% Nov 08
Alaska Pat Chesbro 10% Lisa Murkowski* 87% +77% Nov 08
Arizona Mark Kelly* 52% Blake Masters 46% +6% Nov 08
Arkansas Natalie James 31% John Boozman* 66% +35% Nov 08
California Alex Padilla* 60% Mark Meuser 40% +20% Nov 08
Colorado Michael Bennet* 55% Joe O`Dea 42% +13% Nov 08
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal* 58% Leora Levy 42% +16% Nov 08
Florida Val Demings 41% Marco Rubio* 58% +17% Nov 08
Georgia Raphael Warnock* 50% Herschel Walker 48% +2% Dec 04
Hawaii Brian Schatz* 71% Bob McDermott 26% +45% Nov 08
Idaho David Roth 29% Mike Crapo* 61% +32% Nov 08
Illinois Tammy Duckworth* 56% Kathy Salvi 43% +13% Nov 08
Indiana Thomas McDermott 38% Todd Young* 59% +21% Nov 08
Iowa Michael Franken 44% Chuck Grassley* 56% +12% Nov 08
Kansas Mark Holland 37% Jerry Moran* 60% +23% Nov 08
Kentucky Charles Booker 38% Rand Paul* 62% +24% Nov 08
Louisiana Candidate unknown 18% John Kennedy* 62% +44% Nov 08
Maryland Chris Van Hollen* 63% Chris Chaffee 37% +26% Nov 08
Missouri Trudy Valentine 42% Eric Schmitt 55% +13% Nov 08
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto* 49% Adam Laxalt 48% +1% Nov 08
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan* 54% Don Bolduc 44% +10% Nov 08
New York Chuck Schumer* 56% Joe Pinion 43% +13% Nov 08
North Carolina Cheri Beasley 47% Ted Budd 51% +4% Nov 08
North Dakota Katrina Christiansen 25% John Hoeven* 56% +31% Nov 08
Ohio Tim Ryan 47% J.D. Vance 53% +6% Nov 08
Oklahoma Madison Horn 32% James Lankford* 64% +32% Nov 08
Oklahoma-special Kendra Horn 35% Markwayne Mullin 62% +27% Nov 08
Oregon Ron Wyden* 56% Jo-Rae Perkins 41% +15% Nov 08
Pennsylvania John Fetterman 51% Mehmet Oz 47% +4% Nov 08
South Carolina Krystle Matthews 37% Tim Scott* 63% +26% Nov 08
South Dakota Brian Bengs 26% John Thune* 70% +44% Nov 08
Utah Evan McMullin (I) 42% Mike Lee* 55% +13% Nov 08
Vermont Peter Welch 68% Gerald Malloy 28% +40% Nov 08
Washington Patty Murray* 57% Tiffany Smiley 43% +14% Nov 08
Wisconsin Mandela Barnes 49% Ron Johnson* 50% +1% Nov 08