State Averages for President and Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

President

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 37% Trump 62% +25% Nov 03
Alaska Biden 43% Trump 54% +11% Nov 03
Arizona Biden 50% Trump 49% +1% Nov 03
Arkansas Biden 35% Trump 63% +28% Nov 03
California Biden 64% Trump 34% +30% Nov 03
Colorado Biden 52% Trump 40% +12% Nov 03
Connecticut Biden 59% Trump 39% +20% Nov 03
D.C. Biden 92% Trump 5% +87% Nov 03
Delaware Biden 59% Trump 40% +19% Nov 03
Florida Biden 48% Trump 51% +3% Nov 03
Georgia Biden 50% Trump 49% +1% Nov 03
Hawaii Biden 65% Trump 34% +31% Nov 03
Idaho Biden 33% Trump 64% +31% Nov 03
Illinois Biden 57% Trump 41% +16% Nov 03
Indiana Biden 41% Trump 57% +16% Nov 03
Iowa Biden 45% Trump 53% +8% Nov 03
Kansas Biden 41% Trump 57% +16% Nov 03
Kentucky Biden 36% Trump 62% +26% Nov 03
Louisiana Biden 40% Trump 59% +19% Nov 03
Maine Biden 53% Trump 44% +9% Nov 03
Maryland Biden 65% Trump 33% +32% Nov 03
Massachusetts Biden 65% Trump 33% +32% Nov 03
Michigan Biden 51% Trump 48% +3% Nov 03
Minnesota Biden 53% Trump 45% +8% Nov 03
Mississippi Biden 40% Trump 59% +19% Nov 03
Missouri Biden 41% Trump 57% +16% Nov 03
Montana Biden 40% Trump 57% +17% Nov 03
Nebraska Biden 39% Trump 59% +20% Nov 03
Nevada Biden 50% Trump 48% +2% Nov 03
New Hampshire Biden 53% Trump 46% +7% Nov 03
New Jersey Biden 57% Trump 41% +16% Nov 03
New Mexico Biden 54% Trump 44% +10% Nov 03
New York Biden 61% Trump 38% +23% Nov 03
North Carolina Biden 49% Trump 50% +1% Nov 03
North Dakota Biden 32% Trump 65% +33% Nov 03
Ohio Biden 45% Trump 53% +8% Nov 03
Oklahoma Biden 32% Trump 65% +33% Nov 03
Oregon Biden 57% Trump 40% +17% Nov 03
Pennsylvania Biden 50% Trump 49% +1% Nov 03
Rhode Island Biden 60% Trump 39% +21% Nov 03
South Carolina Biden 43% Trump 55% +12% Nov 03
South Dakota Biden 36% Trump 62% +26% Nov 03
Tennessee Biden 37% Trump 61% +24% Nov 03
Texas Biden 46% Trump 52% +6% Nov 03
Utah Biden 38% Trump 58% +20% Nov 03
Vermont Biden 66% Trump 31% +35% Nov 03
Virginia Biden 54% Trump 44% +10% Nov 03
Washington Biden 58% Trump 39% +19% Nov 03
West Virginia Biden 30% Trump 69% +39% Nov 03
Wisconsin Biden 50% Trump 49% +1% Nov 03
Wyoming Biden 27% Trump 70% +43% Nov 03


Senate

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Will Boyd 36% Candidate unknown 64% +28% Nov 08
Alaska Candidate unknown 11% Lisa Murkowski* 44% +33% Nov 08
Arizona Mark Kelly* 51% Candidate unknown 49% +2% Nov 03
Arkansas Natalie James 36% John Boozman* 60% +24% Nov 08
California Alex Padilla* 63% Candidate unknown 37% +26% Nov 08
Colorado Michael Bennet* 49% Candidate unknown 45% +4% Nov 08
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal* 63% Candidate unknown 35% +28% Nov 08
Florida Candidate unknown 44% Marco Rubio* 50% +6% Nov 08
Georgia Raphael Warnock* 51% Herschel Walker 49% +2% Jan 05
Hawaii Brian Schatz* 74% Candidate unknown 22% +52% Nov 08
Idaho David Roth 28% Mike Crapo* 66% +38% Nov 08
Illinois Tammy Duckworth* 54% Candidate unknown 40% +14% Nov 08
Indiana Thomas McDermott 42% Todd Young* 52% +10% Nov 08
Iowa Candidate unknown 36% Chuck Grassley* 60% +24% Nov 08
Kansas Candidate unknown 32% Jerry Moran* 62% +30% Nov 08
Kentucky Charles Booker 43% Rand Paul* 57% +14% Nov 08
Louisiana Candidate unknown 18% John Kennedy* 25% +7% Nov 08
Maryland Chris Van_Hollen* 60% Candidate unknown 36% +24% Nov 08
Missouri Candidate unknown 46% Candidate unknown 49% +3% Nov 08
Nevada Catherine Cortez_Masto* 47% Adam Laxalt 44% +3% Nov 08
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan* 48% Candidate unknown 47% +1% Nov 08
New York Chuck Schumer* 70% Candidate unknown 27% +43% Nov 08
North Carolina Cheri Beasley!D 45% Cheri Beasley!R 51% +6% Nov 08
North Dakota Candidate unknown 17% John Hoeven* 79% +62% Nov 08
Ohio Tim Ryan 40% J.D. Vance 58% +18% Nov 08
Oklahoma Candidate unknown 25% James Lankford* 67% +42% Nov 08
Oklahoma-special Candidate unknown 15% Candidate unknown 74% +59% Nov 08
Oregon Ron Wyden* 57% Jo-Rae Perkins 34% +23% Nov 08
Pennsylvania John Fetterman 47% Candidate unknown 49% +2% Nov 08
South Carolina Candidate unknown 37% Tim Scott* 61% +24% Nov 08
South Dakota Candidate unknown 28% John Thune* 72% +44% Nov 08
Utah Evan McMullin (I) 27% Mike Lee* 68% +41% Nov 08
Vermont Peter Welch 61% Candidate unknown 33% +28% Nov 08
Washington Patty Murray* 60% Candidate unknown 40% +20% Nov 08
Wisconsin Candidate unknown 47% Ron Johnson* 50% +3% Nov 08