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VP I Is Going to Be a Tougher Challenge than QE II Was

Thus far, Joe Biden's first trip abroad has been fairly successful. That is due, at least in part, to the fact that he's been among friends, whether members of the G7, or of the British royal family. By this time tomorrow, however, he'll be in Geneva to deal with someone of a rather different character in the person of Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Here is an overview of the main items expected to be on the agenda in Switzerland:

Ultimately, the two leaders will mostly be taking the measure of each other, and laying the groundwork for future summits. Putin deliberately goaded Biden earlier this week, calling him a "career man" and lamenting that U.S.-Russia relations are at their "lowest point" in years. Although Biden is not an especially aggressive fellow, he is a skilled diplomat, so he will presumably do what he needs to do to make clear that he's not going to be cowed by that kind of talk. (Z)

Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal Is in Trouble

Actually, the extent to which that headline is correct depends on which outlet you believe. CNN reports that the bipartisan deal negotiated by the five Republican and five Democratic senators in the "Gang of 10," is "pick[ing] up steam." The Hill, by contrast, reports that the bill "is coming under fire from both sides of the aisle and may not survive the week." Apparently, it's on both the upturn and the downturn.

It is not often that we favor The Hill over CNN, but in this case we think The Hill has the right of it. To start, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has already announced he's a "no" vote. Finding 10 Republican votes is hard, finding 11 is that much harder, and that's before considering the possibility that some of the other lefty senators jump ship.

A second issue is the funding for the bipartisan plan. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was on TV this weekend to decree that the plan has no tax increases, and that instead it will pay the bills by indexing the federal gas tax to inflation. Of course, if there's inflation (as there usually is), then the gas tax will rise. Normally, when a tax rises, that is called an "increase." The new tax may have the same value, in constant dollars, but it's still an increase. Anyhow, quite a few senators are not buying into Collins' argument, including Republicans like Rick Scott (FL), who is allergic to all tax increases, and Democrats like Richard Blumenthal (CT), who doesn't want taxe increases that will weigh heavily upon the poor.

And finally, many Democrats are saying their support for the bipartisan bill can only be had if there is a locked-in, 50-Democratic-senator agreement to then pass a giant reconciliation bill. But if such a deal is in place, then why would Republicans support a smaller bill first? They aren't going to facilitate a Democratic double-dip. Add all of these things up, and the compromise bill just seems to have too steep a hill to climb. (Z)

Supreme Court News, Part I: The Calm Before the Storm

The Supreme Court has been relatively quiet in the last couple of weeks, but that will soon come to an end, as they have several hot-button cases due to be decided. Here's a rundown of the biggies:

Guessing how the Supreme Court will rule, before they actually do, can be something of a fool's errand. However, Slate's Mark Joseph Stern observes that (1) these decisions are taking a very long time, and (2) Associate Justice Elena Kagan has been unusually disdainful of Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh in several decisions she's authored in the last few weeks. Stern interprets these things as signs that tensions are high on the Court, and thinks that means that some very unhappy news for liberals is coming down the pike sometime soon. It won't be long before we find out if he is right. (Z)

Supreme Court News, Part II: McConnell Admits What Everyone Already Knew

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was on Hugh Hewitt's radio program yesterday, because heaven forbid he should talk to any outlet that might actually challenge him. And while the two men conducted this month's meeting of their mutual admiration society, Hewitt asked what would happen if the Republicans regain control of the Senate in 2022, and then a Supreme Court vacancy came up in 2024. The Minority Leader said: "I don't think either party, if it controlled, if it were different from the president, would confirm a Supreme Court nominee in the middle of an election. What was different in 2020 was we were of the same party as the president." McConnell was also asked about a 2023 vacancy, and said: "we'd have to wait and see what happens." For those who do not speak fluent McConnellese, that means: "We would not approve a Biden nominee in 2023 unless hell freezes over."

McConnell's logic for how 2020 was somehow different from 2016 remains nonsensical; either a president is elected for a four-year term or they aren't, and if they are, they have the same powers on the first day of their term as they do on the last day. He's almost certainly right, however, that neither party will ever again approve a nominee in an election year, unless the nominee is made by a president of the party that controls the Senate. And if he gets to set the precedent that the year before an election is off-limits, then we'll soon be at a place when nominees can only be confirmed in the first year of a president's term. Or, perhaps even more likely, a place where they can only be confirmed if the same party holds the Senate and the White House.

Slate's Mark Joseph Stern, who makes his second appearance in this space today, lays out the broader strategy here: Republican leadership knows that many of their policy goals cannot possibly get through Congress, so instead they'll be implemented by conservative judges. Think reaffirming the Second Amendment, severely limiting abortion rights, or making it harder to vote.

McConnell's admission is only going to intensify the pressure on Associate Justice Stephen Breyer to get while the gettin's good. Thus far, he's dug his heels in and insisted that he isn't going anywhere. That said, Ketanji Brown Jackson, who is understood to be his preferred candidate to succeed him, was confirmed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on Monday. If Breyer is just waiting for her to get a little seasoning before being promoted, well, he can now start that clock. (Z)

This Week's 2022 Candidacy News

Lots of candidate announcements in the last week or so. Here are the ones of particular interest:

Now you're up to date. Well, until the next wave of announcements, that is. (Z)

Virginia Governor's Race Could Be a Barnburner

When Terry McAuliffe (D) easily dispatched all comers last week to claim the Democrats' gubernatorial nomination in Virginia, we supposed that he would be a solid favorite given his near-universal name recognition, and his being a pretty good fit for blue-but-let's-not-get-crazy-now Virginia.

Two new polls suggest that it might be much closer than we thought. WPA Intelligence has McAuliffe with 48% of the vote, Republican Glenn Youngkin with 46%, with 5% undecided, and a 4.4-point margin of error. Meanwhile, JMC Analytics has McAuliffe at 46%, Youngkin at 42%, 12% undecided, and a 4.2.% margin of error.

It is, of course, very early in the race. Further, both of these polls are from middling pollsters with slight Republican house effects (roughly R+1 in both cases). So, take them with a few grains of salt. That said, McAuliffe is the kind of politician who is acceptable to many, but exciting to none. He won by 2.6 points in his first gubernatorial election, and so it wouldn't be too big a surprise if, even if he wins, it's not a blowout. (Z)

Adams Looks to Be in the Catbird Seat

Ranked-choice voting is new for New York, which means it's also new for the folks who might wish to poll the New York mayor's race. Nonetheless, WNBC, Telemundo 47 and Politico thought they would give it a try. And according to their poll, Eric Adams is in line to be the Democratic nominee in the New York mayor's race. Inasmuch as the city is more than 70% Democratic, the nomination will effectively make him mayor-elect.

The results suggest that Adams would be the winner even without ranked-choice voting, since he is the first choice of 28% of respondents, as compared to 19% for Kathryn Garcia, 17% for Maya Wiley, and 15% for Andrew Yang. However, the pollsters replicated the voting process, eliminating candidates and re-distributing their votes, until Adams finally claimed a majority in the 12th round of ballot-counting, 56% to 44%.

There is still a week until the election and, of course, there are a lot of moving parts in a ranked-choice election. So, Adams isn't home-free yet. That said, from an opening position of leading the field by 9 points (again, 28% to 19%), no candidate ever gets closer to him than 8 points in the pollsters' simulation (and that happens only twice, with Adams at 28% and Garcia at 20% in both the fifth and sixth rounds).

If the counting really does go to a 12th round, that means there will be a fair number of exhausted ballots. In view of that possibility (likelihood?), some voters may put their hearts aside, and use all five of their slots (or, at least, four of the five) more strategically. In particular, the progressive vote is now split across several candidates. If those folks all unite behind Garcia, who isn't a progressive, but is more so than Adams, then that sort of progressive-centrist coalition might be enough to send Adams to defeat. Otherwise, he looks to be home free. (Z)


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