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The Final Countdown Is Underway...

Today is the last full day of Donald Trump's presidency. If you would like a more precise figure, the R-rated version of the Trump eviction clock, or the G-rated version can give it to you (thanks to reader C.P.S. in San Jose, CA for the heads up). In any event, Trump & Co. have kindly spent the waning days of his term reminding us of the ingredients that made his administration so...memorable. To wit:

In short, like any rock band that's nearing the end of the road, Trump and his team have treated Americans to a "greatest hits," just so you don't forget them when they're gone. Oh, and speaking of gone, today is the end of bidding for the honor of pushing the button when Trump Plaza Atlantic City is demolished. After a bunch of fake bids were yanked, it's up to $195,000. If you're looking for an early Valentine's Day gift, nothing says "love" like blowing up something that used to belong to Donald Trump. (Z)

I Beg Your Pardon?

Today, as noted above, Donald Trump will unveil about 100 pardons. Some of them will be controversial. Some of them might plausibly be deemed invalid or even illegal. In anticipation of this news, probably the last major news Trump will produce as president, we thought we would take a look at some of the issues and questions involved.

To start, because most presidents have been pretty careful not to abuse the pardon power (outside of an occasional controversial pardon, like Bill Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich), they have been very little explored by the courts. So, much of this is necessarily somewhat speculative. And, with that said:

In short, this is a very complicated and hazy issue, one that has very little jurisprudence associated with it. However, we suspect that Trump will issue at least a few pardons today that will eventually force the courts to make things a fair bit clearer. (Z)

Schumer, McConnell Close to a Deal on Power Sharing

Yesterday, we mentioned an op-ed co-written by Trent Lott (R) and Tom Daschle (D) who were, respectively, Senate Majority Leader and Senate Minority Leader in 2001, the last time that the Senate was evenly divided. They suggested that hammering out a power-sharing deal this time around might be very, very difficult, given the complexities involved, as well as the polarized environment in Washington these days.

It looks like they need not have worried, because soon-to-be Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and soon-to-be Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) are reportedly close to a deal. The key elements: (1) Democrats will get all the committee chairs; (2) however, the two parties will have an equal number of seats on each committee; and (3) bills and nominations can advance from committee to the Senate floor even after a tie vote (usually it requires the support of a majority of the committee).

There are, in our view, two takeaways here. The first is that the Republicans won't actually have much more power than if they had 49 seats or 45 or 40; the filibuster (if it survives) will remain their only real tool to stymie the Democrats, assuming the Democrats remain unified. The second is that McConnell, as soon as he's working from a position of weakness, gets downright reasonable and accommodating. (Z)

Biden Embraces Some Progressive Priorities

Joe Biden, the politician, is most certainly not a progressive. He is a pragmatic centrist, which is often necessary to be elected president (at least, as a Democrat), and is definitely necessary to sustain a 40-year career as a senator representing what was, for many of those years, a purple state.

Joe Biden, the person, on the other hand, has sometimes been a fair bit leftier than his public image might suggest. Most obviously, he was a supporter of legalizing gay marriage well before that was a mainstream position in the Democratic Party. The same is true of legalizing pot. Furthermore, as a good party man, he knows that all factions need to share in the spoils after a big political victory. He clearly decided, with some justification, that getting a fire-breathing progressive into the cabinet was not especially plausible. In the last couple of days, however, he's made several announcements that should gladden the hearts of the Democrats' progressive wing.

As we have already noted, Biden has suggested he was going to pick Gary Gensler—no friend to the big banks—to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission. On Monday, the President-elect announced that Rohit Chopra, a close ally of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), will be his pick to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Chopra's big on enforcing fair-lending laws, cracking down on payday loans, and vigorous enforcement of Dodd-Frank. He won't get any GOP votes for confirmation; he'll need to hope that he's acceptable to Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).

Meanwhile, speaking of banks, Biden has reportedly narrowed his choice for Comptroller of the Currency, the nation's main bank regulator, to two candidates. The first is legal scholar and law professor Mehrsa Baradaran, who is an expert on the wealth gap, and is very popular with progressives. The second is former Treasury Dept. official Michael Barr, who is a bit less lefty than Baradaran, but who nonetheless helped craft the rules that were imposed on the financial sector after the Great Recession. Either way, it's going to be a new sheriff in town, and one that's not in the bankers' pockets.

And finally, Barack Obama spent much time waffling about the Keystone XL Pipeline. Not so Donald Trump, who allowed the project to move forward, consistent with his philosophy that more fossil fuels are always a good thing. Not so Joe Biden, either, who announced yesterday that he will yank the permit for Keystone XL on his first day in the Oval Office. With all the lawsuits and protests that the project has triggered, and with oil slowly being supplanted by other energy sources, and with at least 4 years (and very possibly 8 or 12 years) of an anti-XL president in the White House, one wonders if this will be the death blow for the project.

In any event, it's clear that Biden is working to throw at least a few bones to each of the Democratic factions that got him elected, whether Black voters, or young people, or progressives. Exactly how satisfied these factions are, we will have to wait to see. (Z)

Fox News in Decline

Fox News has, in the last few weeks, hit a bit of a road bump. Since the election, their ratings are down quite a bit, both overall and in the coveted 25- to 54-year-old demographic. Part of this is loss of viewers to OAN and Newsmax. That's not the whole story, however, because CNN is surging, and has been the top-rated cable news channel for the last 8 weeks.

Colby Hall, writing for Mediaite, lists five things that are hurting Fox right now. Here is a summary:

  1. A historic news cycle—for the competition: Most of the big news stories of the last year, from the pandemic to Trump's election loss to the insurrection are the kinds of things that Fox tends to downplay (at risk of alienating their audience), while CNN and MSNBC were able to provide wall-to-wall coverage.

  2. Deemphasizing news department in favor of more opinion programming: Angry white commentary from folks like Glenn Beck, Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, and Jeanine Pirro has been Fox's bread and butter for years and years. The news operation was seen as, in effect, an ugly stepchild. And with the news division losing most of its remaining stars (especially Shepard Smith) as well as the one hour of prime time it was allotted, it's become even uglier and even stepchildier (remarkably, that word passes spell check). It now appears that the news, while not the focus, at least differentiated Fox from its competitors. Now, Fox is not especially different from The Blaze, or The Daily Caller, or The Daily Wire, or Breitbart.

  3. Opinion programming all-in on conspiracies: For those who embrace conspiratorial thinking, and who can overlook those occasions where someone like Tucker Carlson or Sean Hannity completely changes course (for example, "Dominion voting machines were hacked!" to "Dominion voting machines weren't hacked!") then there's no problem. However, for those who wish to believe that Fox is a serious news outlet committed to the philosophy of "we report, you decide," the conspiracies are awfully difficult to ignore.

  4. Outflanked on the fringe right by OAN and Newsmax: For many years, among cable channels, Fox News had an entire crazy right-wing landscape all to themselves, and could decide exactly how crazy they did or did not want to go. Now, it's basically impossible to out-crazy Newsmax and OAN, narrowing Fox's possibilities.

  5. Message fatigue, or the "classic rock" problem: There's only so much mileage to be gotten out of Benghazi, or Hillary Clinton's e-mails, or Barack Obama's tan suit. It would appear that, like "Hotel California" or "Stairway to Heaven" after they've been played for the millionth time, the "scandals" of Democrats past have lost a lot of their power.

It's a pretty good list, though we think that Hall might have done a bit more to highlight the problems that Joe Biden, in particular, presents for Fox News' talking heads. There was more than a bit of sexism embedded in many of the attacks on Hillary Clinton, and more than a bit of racism (or xenophobia) embedded in many of the attacks on Barack Obama. Biden, on the other hand, is a white guy in his 70s who is well-liked, nearly scandal-free, and fairly bland. There are some presidents that "Saturday Night Live" has struggled to satirize (Ronald Reagan and Obama, in particular, made far less interesting targets than Trump, the Bushes, or Bill Clinton). Surely, there are also some presidents who don't provide all that much fuel for the 24-hour rage machine. And we think Biden is one of those.

Obviously, it's only 8 weeks so far. Fox News is very good at this, which is why they have been King of the Hill for so long. Perhaps they will course-correct, and will be back on top again. On the other hand, it's also possible they are in the same position as the Republican Party, and will find that the price of going all-in on Donald Trump short term is serious long-term damage to the brand. (Z)

Parler Is "Back"

As long as we are talking about right-wing outlets, Parler.com has apparently figured out a new arrangement after having been kicked off of Amazon's servers, and says it will be operational again by the end of the month.

At the moment, if you visit the site, it has a handful of old Parler tweets (Peets? Pleets? Parakeets?) and a message from CEO John Matze that says:

Now seems like the right time to remind you all—both lovers and haters—why we started this platform. We believe privacy is paramount and free speech essential, especially on social media. Our aim has always been to provide a nonpartisan public square where individuals can enjoy and exercise their rights to both.

We will resolve any challenge before us and plan to welcome all of you back soon. We will not let civil discourse perish!

The new domain registrar is Epik, which also serves as registrar to Gab, 8Chan, Stormfront, and pretty much every other high-profile ultra-right-wing site on the Internet. This has led some to dub them EpiKKK. It's not clear who is hosting the new Parler, though Epik issued a statement claiming that it's not them. Examining the DNS record, it looks like the host is...the Russkies.

In any case, Parler was presumably integrated enough with Amazon Web Services to require some retooling, but not so integrated as to make a switch impossible. As they re-launch, however, they will continue to have the problem that their reach is very limited, and mostly involves members of the choir whining and moaning to other members of the choir. Further, the site's sloppy security allowed many users—including many Capitol insurrectionists—to be doxxed. So, some folks may be very leery to put their trust in the site going forward. (Z)

Cohen Implicates Boebert

For at least a week, Democratic members of Congress have claimed that they saw some of their Republican colleagues leading tours of the U.S. Capitol complex in the days before the Trump Insurrection. Given that the complex is largely shut down right now, due to COVID, the tours led to raised eyebrows even before the Insurrection. And given that the rioters seemed to have excellent knowledge of the labyrinthine complex, then putting 2+2 together leads to the conclusion that perhaps those tours were, in fact, reconnaissance trips.

Until Monday, the identities of these alleged GOP tour guides were not known, as the Democratic accusers preferred not to make reckless accusations. But now, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) has come out and said that both he and Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY) saw newly seated Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) leading a large group around the Capitol complex a day or two before the insurrection.

Cohen was careful to qualify his revelation, saying he had no way to know if the tour group included insurrectionists, or just friends/family who were there to be a part of Boebert's swearing-in week. Of course, knowing what we already know of Boebert, it's possible they were both. She's an outspoken Trump supporter and someone who definitely believes that violence solves problems, since she insists that her staff carry loaded weapons while working at her restaurant, and she wants to carry while working in the House of Representatives. In any event, there are cameras all over the place in the Capitol Building, and the FBI has been sparing no resource when it comes to identifying perpetrators. So, if Boebert was indeed leading soon-to-be insurrectionists around the Capitol, she's almost certain to be caught red-handed. Indeed, the fact that Cohen was willing to name names, after a week of not doing so, might suggest he already knows of evidence against her. (Z)


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