Questions
What does "Pickups" mean under the map?
It means that one party or the other picked it up, that is, the seat changed from
Democratic to Republican or vice versa compared to the previous election. From looking at the color of the state on the
map, you can see which party is winning it. For the presidency, a pickup is relative to who won in 2016.
For the Senate, it is relative to who won in 2014 (when the seat last came up).
How do I know you are not cheating with the numbers?
Valid question. First, all the polling data can be downloaded for you to
inspect here .
You can see who ran the poll and then go check the
pollster's website. Second, there is a site similar to this one,
www.electionprojection.com,
run by a rabid Republican.
While I can't stomach his politics and analysis, I have checked
his numbers
very carefully and they are completely honest. If you doubt a poll,
go see if he has it. But note that we have different sources (some cost quite a
bit of money) and different posting cycles.
As an aside, if you assume I am cheating, that says something about you. In essence, you
are saying: "If I were running such a site, I'd certainly cheat to make it look like my
horse were winning, so I assume the other guys do the same thing."
Where do you get your funding?
I have paid for the site entirely out of my own pocket.
No campaign, party, 527, or other funds from any sources
whatsoever have been used.
In 2004, I didn't even have a way for anyone to make donations until late in the
season, but so many people told me they wanted to contribute, I set up a PayPal
account. Donations, as described on the
donations page will be
used to buy ads to publicize the site. The list of places where the ads
have run is given on the donations page.
Why are your results different from other sites'?
There are many valid reasons. First, methodologies differ.
Second, not everyone has access to the same polls. I subscribe to the premium (paid) services offered by several
pollsters, giving me (early) access to polls not available to the general public. Third, this site
is updated once a day, by 8:00 a.m. EST. Other sites have different update patterns, sometimes as low
as once a week. Fourth, some pollsters try to guess who is a likely
voter and report the scores separately for likely voters and registered voters. Currently I use
likely voters. Some other sites may use registered voters, which gives a different result.
Why aren't Gallup polls used?
They are. However Gallup is not commissioned to do many state polls. It is not their
speciality. The state polls that they do conduct are most certainly used.
Why don't you track the House of Representatives too?
Fewer than 20% of the House districts are ever polled, meaning I need a model to predict the 80%
that are never polled. In 2010, I built such a model based on the history of each district, but with the
aggressive gerrymandering
that took place after the 2010 census, no district has enough history to use.
What do the terms "strong," "weak," and "barely" mean?
By definition, "strong" means support of 10% or more; "weak" means 5% to 9%, and "barely"
means less than 5%. The states marked barely are statistical ties.
Can you explain how polling works?
Yes, but it is a long story. See
this page.
What is a push poll?
It is a way of slandering a political opponent in the guise of a poll.
The so-called pollster calls thousands of people (instead of the normal 600-1000)
and asks questions including things like: "Did you know that Sen. John McCain
has a black child?" (used by the Bush campaign in South Carolina in the 2000
primaries). The implication was that McCain had an affair with a black woman.
In reality, he and Mrs. McCain adopted a handicapped child from Mother Teresa's
orphanage in Bangladesh. So this act of kindness was spun as a way of insinuating
that he cheated on his wife, but in such a way that the Bush campaign didn't formally lie
and if caught could say, "Oh, we were just curious about racial attitudes."
You reported a new poll today but I don't see the dot on the graph.
It is important to understand a poll's life cycle. The poll is taken during a certain time
period, say Sept. 10-12. Then the pollster analyzes the data and publishes the result, say
on Sept. 15. Then the media disseminate the result, say on Sept. 17. Then I publish it,
say Sept. 18 (often I have poll results before publication in the media, but they are
embargoed so I have to wait until the official publication date). Now suppose you see the
website on Sept. 19. The poll will be there, but the dot will be on the midpoint of the
poll, in this example, Sept. 11. But if you were looking on Sept. 19, indeed, you won't
find it there.
I love this site. Can I donate money to help out?
Yes. See the
donations page.
I hate this site. Is there one run by a Republican?
Yes. Take a look at
electionprojection.com.
It is run by someone who has devoted his life to Jesus and is strongly biased in favor of Republicans in his
commentary (but his numbers seem to be OK).
Can I put a link to your site from my website or blog?
Yes. Click on
Icons for bloggers
on the menu and there are two different icons
you can just cut and paste onto your website or blog. Or make your own.
Are the Excel spreadsheets available in .csv format?
Yes, click
here.
Is there a way to search this site?
Yes. Use the Google search box at the bottom of the main page.
How well did EVP do predicting previous elections?
Very well indeed. See this
discussion.
Is it possible to send mail to the Votemaster?
Yes, but due to the volume of mail (> 15,000 in 2004 and more since), you probably won't get
an answer. Mail that is short and to the point, does not rant, and conceivably
has a short answer has a better chance of being answered. For example:
"Did you see this neat page listing all the ... in the history of the Senate?"
The address is votemaster@electoral-vote.com. If you want Zenger, he is at
zenger@electoral-vote.com.
