Mar. 03

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Klobucharge Runs Out of Electricity

If you are a fan of white men in their seventies, have we got the Democratic field for you. Following the departure of 62-year-old Tom Steyer on Saturday, and of 38-year-old Pete Buttigieg on Sunday, 59-year-old Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) became the latest presidential aspirant to bow to reality. She withdrew from the race on Monday, and gave her support to Joe Biden. That means that the remaining viable Democratic contenders are a white guy in his 70s, another white guy in his 70s, a third white guy in his 70s, and, because variety is the spice of life, a white gal in her 70s.

There was little doubt that Klobuchar was a short-timer, and it was widely understood that she was just staying in the race until Wednesday, so as to keep Minnesota from falling into the hands of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). So, what changed? Nobody's saying, but if Klobuchar decided that her task now is to get Joe Biden nominated, it probably makes more sense to get out before Super Tuesday. As long as Biden and Klobuchar were both technically in the race, then Minnesota's moderate Democrats would be left guessing about how to use their votes, since Klobuchar was more likely to block Sanders in the Gopher State, but Biden needs the delegates. Now, that dilemma is resolved. There can't be a large number of Klobuchar-Sanders voters, so undoubtedly most Klobuchar voters (and, for that matter, most Buttigieg voters) will migrate to the former veep.

It is fair to ask what concessions Klobuchar might have gotten in exchange for dropping out and endorsing with such rapidity. It's possible she was given the inside track on the Veep slot; if Biden gets the nod and decides he's solid with black voters, he could certainly do worse, running-mate wise, than a nearly-20-years-younger Midwestern woman with a solid track record of success. Actually, she's not a bad match for Sanders, either, though he may not be eager to join forces with someone who just endorsed his main opponent. Alternatively, maybe Klobuchar aspires to a Cabinet post; the attorney generalship or the Dept. of Agriculture or the Dept. of the Interior would be pretty good fits. It's worth noting that if her Senate seat is vacated, Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) would pick a replacement, and that replacement would serve for two years, so there's no real risk here in terms of control of the Senate. That said, it's also entirely possible that Klobuchar is happy to stay right where she is, in anticipation of another presidential run in 4 or 8 years. She's plenty young enough, and she may have extracted promises of establishment support before dropping out Monday.

If Klobuchar does run again, she'll need to figure out what went wrong this time. She has an excellent résumé, a strong "electability" argument, and she was consistently one of the best debate performers, and yet she never really got much traction. Maybe the "moderate" lane was just too crowded. Maybe her reputation for abusive behavior towards her staffers was a turn-off for voters. Maybe it was good, old-fashioned misogyny. Could be any or all of the above, or something else entirely that we're overlooking. In any case, with her and Buttigieg gone, and Biden and Bloomberg still in, the Democratic candidates' debates are definitely going to be even more of a slog than they already were. (Z)

Everybody Is Endorsing Biden

We suspected that the Super Tuesday results would throw the fear of God into the Democratic establishment and the moderate wing of the party, and that they would rapidly coalesce around a non-Sanders candidate. We were somewhat on target, though we did not foresee that it would happen before Super Tuesday. In addition to Amy Klobuchar's departure and endorsement, Joe Biden got the following endorsements on Monday, as the Party establishment coalesced around him:

In addition, Biden's fundraising appears to be basically back on track; he announced on Monday that he's raised $33 million in the last month. That still lags the $46.5 million Sanders raised in February by quite a bit, but it's certainly enough to wage a viable campaign.

Speaking of Sanders, he was asked on Monday about all the support coalescing behind Biden, and said:

Look, it is no secret. I mean, the Washington Post has 16 articles a day on this, that there is a massive effort trying to stop Bernie Sanders, that's not a secret to anybody in this room. The corporate establishment is coming together. The political establishment is coming together and they will do everything. They are really getting nervous that working people are standing up.

Sanders is right about some things. The anti-Sanders forces really are coming together to stop him, and they certainly are frightened by his candidacy. On the other hand, he's also wrong about some things. The implication that there is some sort of conspiracy is ill-founded; there is nothing secretive or nefarious about what's going on. This is how politics works, and if you run as an "outsider," you better believe the "insiders" are not going to be on your team until they absolutely have to be (see Trump, Donald, circa 2016). Sanders could have mitigated this somewhat by becoming an actual Democrat, but he chose not to. Did he really expect the leaders of the Democratic Party to support someone who isn't even a Democrat?

Indeed, Sanders' remarks are exceedingly self-serving. It is hard to see how he's going to win any voters over with his "the establishment/the corporate interests are against me" argument; anyone inclined to accept that viewpoint is already on board Team Sanders. On the other hand, saying such things will absolutely encourage the feeling among his base that the Democratic Party is the enemy, and will also encourage Sanders' supporters to vote third-party or to stay home if they don't get their candidate. And all of this is before we get into the rather off-putting habit the Senator has developed, in the last few months in particular, of referring to himself in the third person. None of this is going to help him expand his support beyond his base.

In any event, Super Tuesday just got a lot more interesting. (Z)

What to Watch for on Super Tuesday

Speaking of Super Tuesday, 14 states will cast their primary votes today and American Samoans will caucus. Some of those places have been heavily polled, others not so much. Either way, at this point, the polls aren't worth a whole lot. The impact of Joe Biden's surprisingly large win in South Carolina, followed by the departure of three candidates who were all chasing parts of his base, means that a poll conducted last Thursday might just as well have been conducted last summer. So, the stage is set for some drama. Here are some of the key storylines to watch for today, presidential and otherwise:

In short, there's a lot to see on Tuesday night. We'll do as much as we can to break it down in Wednesday's post, but undoubtedly it will take several days to properly process all the results. (Z)

Supreme Court Will Hear Obamacare Case

In case there wasn't enough riding on the results of this year's elections, the Supreme Court has decided to hear the latest challenge to Obamacare. This one was brought by the attorneys general of a gaggle of red states, and is an effort to bring down the law using something of a loophole. The original legislation imposes a tax on people who don't buy insurance. In the tax break for rich people and corporations, the Senate set the tax to zero. Ipso facto, argue the red-state AGs, the whole law is invalidated.

SCOTUS will not expedite the case, which means their ruling almost certainly will come after the election. Ostensibly, the GOP thinks it has a winner here, or they wouldn't be pursuing the case. However, neither polls nor the 2018 election results back that position up. Meanwhile, the Democrats are going to do everything they can to get mileage out of this. They will point out that, if the Republicans get their way, then tens of millions of people will lose their health insurance, and tens of millions more will lose ACA-conferred benefits like that insurance companies cannot deny coverage based on existing conditions. The blue team will also point out that the ACA was adopted nearly 10 years ago (that anniversary comes on the 23rd of this month), and that the red team hasn't come up with anything even faintly resembling a replacement (much less an improvement) in all that time. In short, it's hard to see how Monday's announcement does not work to the advantage of the Democrats this cycle. (Z)

Dow Rallies

To channel Sir Isaac Newton for the second day in a row, it would appear that what goes down must go up. Following a disastrous week last week, the Dow Jones had a nice little rebound on Monday, posting a 1,294-point gain, the largest in history by points. That doesn't erase all of the 3,583 points it lost in the seven previous days, but it does erase a big chunk of it.

So, what comes next for this roller coaster of a stock market? Well, the experts agree that there is definitely a possibility that the Dow Jones might just go up or down, or it may stay steady, but it is absolutely certain that either something good or something bad is about to happen unless, of course, nothing much happens at all. You can take that to the bank. (Z)

Will Trump Drop the Mike?

Paul Begala, who used to work for Bill Clinton, and who has been a CNN talking head for a long time, issued forth with this on Monday:

This is not a prediction. It's a certainty. On Thursday, July 16—that's the date the Democrat gives his or her acceptance address—on that day, to interrupt that narrative, Donald Trump will call a press conference at Mar-a-Lago. He's gonna dump Mike Pence and put Nikki Haley on the ticket to try to get those suburban moms. You watch. Guaranteed.

Begala is pretty well connected, and this is far too specific and too emphatic to be a guess. He clearly believes it's true, and he surely has good reason to think so. If Begala is proven incorrect, it either means he got bad information (less likely) or that the mercurial Trump changed his mind (more likely).

Does this make sense, from a strategic perspective? It certainly seems to. Pence is clearly just an errand boy for the administration, and not an important insider. On top of that, the President has the evangelical vote in his hip pocket, Pence or not. If Haley, as a woman of color with a reputation as a moderate, can win over just a few suburban women and/or a few voters of color here and there, that's a step up compared to Pence. On the other hand, the Democrats would likely counter-program that with Stacey Abrams, another Southern woman of color, which would cancel out most (or all) of the Haley effect. (Z)

Another Israeli Election, Another Hazy Result

The people of Israel went to the polls again yesterday. And, for the third time in as many elections, no party or coalition won enough seats in the Knesset to form a majority. Current caretaker PM and friend-of-Trump Benjamin Netanyahu did better than expected, possibly aided by a few assists from the Donald. However, with 90% of the vote counted, Bibi is a couple of seats short of a majority.

Assuming the results hold, Netanyahu will likely be given the first opportunity to form a majority government. He's already failed twice under the same circumstances; if he fails again, then rival Benny Gantz will give it a try. There will be enormous pressure on each of them to work something out, even if it means that they partner up and share power. But without a breakthrough, then Israel will be headed for its fourth election in a year. At this point, it's looking possible that the U.S. will inaugurate a Jewish leader before the Israelis do.

Israel is a good case study for people who carp about the two-party system in the U.S. In Israel, there are a dozen or so parties and it is easy to start new ones. The result is fragmented elections and it is nearly impossible to form a coalition that can get a majority. Imagine that the U.S. landscape looked like this, with the parties' main demands as follows:

Now imagine (not hard) that the Greens and Libertarians really dug in their heels and were unwilling to budge on their platform and it was impossible to form a majority in the House to even elect a speaker. With a two-party system, at least one of them wins and one of them loses and you don't have three elections/year like Israel, with a fourth one possible soon. (Z)


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