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Dem pickups: AZ FL GA MI NC PA TX WI
GOP pickups: (None)

McConnell Unveils HEALS Act

Senate Republicans got on the same page on Monday long enough to unveil their plan for the latest round of COVID-19 relief funding. The name, which presumably required 10 seconds' thought from one of the senators' 5-year-old kids, is the Health, Economic Assistance, Liability Protection and Schools Act, or HEALS Act. Creative, it is not. That is not to say that the name of the Democrats' bill, the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions Act, or HEROES Act, is any better.

Here are the major elements of the two plans that will now be ground into legislative sausage:

Item Republicans Democrats
Federal unemployment benefits $200/week $600/week
COVID-19 testing and research $35 billion $75 billion
Stimulus payment Another $1,200 for most adults plus $500 per dependent Up to another $6,000 per household
State and local government assistance No new funding; relaxed rules for previous funding received $1 trillion
Educational assistance $105 billion, partly tied to in-person instruction $300 billion, no requirement for in-person instruction
Hazard pay for essential workers None $200 billion
Payroll protection Tax credits for employers who keep people employed or make new hires; another round of PPP loans (approximately $100 billion in new funding) Tax credits for employers who keep people employed or make new hires
Payroll tax cut None None
Lawsuit immunity Employers would be protected from employees' COVID-19-related suits No employer immunity
Employee Health Tax credit equal to 50% of employer's expenses incurred in protecting employees COBRA subsidies, special Obamacare enrollment period
Housing None $175 billion to help with rents, mortgages, and utilities
Food 100% deduction for business-related meals 15% increase in SNAP benefits
Democracy None Protections for safe elections, the census, and the postal service
New FBI building $1.75 billion None
Total Cost $1 trillion $3 trillion

There are a lot of non-starters here for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and their respective caucuses. In particular, the Democrats have made clear they are not interested in slashing unemployment benefits, in leaving state and local governments to fend for themselves, or in immunizing employers against lawsuits.

As Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) tries to move the blue team off those positions, or at least to find some sort of middle ground, he has the much weaker hand to play, for a number of reasons:

McConnell, Pelosi, and Schumer all have their spin machines already cranked up to 10, so expect things to be pretty ugly for the next week or two. And then, maybe they will get something done. (Z)

House Judiciary Committee Will Consider Bill (Barr)

Bill Barr was supposed to testify before House Judiciary Chair Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) and his committee over a year ago. However, somehow, some way, the Attorney General's schedule just never quite worked out. Today, at long last, he will drop in for a chat with Nadler & Co.

The Democrats are going to focus all their energy on the notion that Barr has served less as AG and more as fixer/toady for Donald Trump. "Why did you deliberately distort the Mueller Report when you summarized it for the American people before its release?" and "Why do you take such an interest in reducing the sentences of convicted Trump associates?" will be the sorts of things they ask. The Republicans are going to toss the softest softballs they can come up with. "Would you characterize the President's handling of the troublemakers in Portland as heroic, or as historic?" and "Can you believe the Night Angel won on 'The Masked Singer'? I thought the Frog had it for sure!" will be the general approach.

Barr has already released his opening statement. He knows what's coming, and he's naturally going to adopt a defiant posture. On the Mueller Report:

Ever since I made it clear that I was going to do everything I could to get to the bottom of the grave abuses involved in the bogus 'Russiagate' scandal, many of the Democrats on this Committee have attempted to discredit me by conjuring up a narrative that I am simply the President's factotum who disposes of criminal cases according to his instructions. Judging from the letter inviting me to this hearing, that appears to be your agenda today.

That does not make him seem to be in the bag for Trump. Nope, not at all. Barr's statement also says that his decisions about Roger Stone and Michael Flynn were his "independent judgment" and that while George Floyd's death was "horrible," things are different today than they were in the era of the Civil Rights Movement, there is no "deep-seated racism" in police departments, and the response to the Floyd killing has been "grossly irresponsible" and not "a worthy response." Undoubtedly, the nation's people of color will be delighted that a wealthy and powerful white man was available to set them straight.

In the end, there will be nobody in that room today that hasn't ridden in this rodeo before, and so it is unlikely that anybody will slip up and say something off-script. In fact, it could be that the most newsworthy testimony of the day comes not from Barr, but from National Guard Major Adam D. DeMarco, who is going to speak with the House Natural Resources Committee. He is reportedly set to tell them that the protesters who were cleared for Trump's Bible photo-op were behaving peacefully, and that when Barr says otherwise, he is lying. Since DeMarco was there, he knows what he's talking about. On the other hand, he once ran for Congress as a Democrat, so the only people likely to hear him are those who already believed Barr was lying. Consequently, DeMarco's testimony today may not have much more impact than Barr's. (Z)

Conservatives Furious about SCOTUS

In the last month, Chief Justice John Roberts has sided with the four liberals on the Court in several rulings that have enraged conservatives. The latest of these came on Friday, when the Court declined, 5-4, to allow Calvary Chapel Dayton Valley in Dayton, NV, to ignore a state rule forbidding gatherings of more than 50 people. Since it was an emergency order, the ruling was unsigned. However, the other four conservatives each applied their signatures to one of two dissents, which means that we know the identity of the five in the majority by default.

Over the weekend, conservatives were all over television and social media, lamenting that they did not get what they paid for when they packed the Court with conservative jurists. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), for example, declared that "John Roberts has abandoned his oath." Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) said Roberts is guilty of "discriminating against religion," because the 50-person limit is waived for casinos and restaurants, but not for religious gatherings. Conservative activist Charlie Kirk called the Chief a "national disgrace" and fellow activist Steve Deace declared that Roberts "should be impeached," and even implied that Congress should go back and also impeach George W. Bush for good measure, since Bush nominated Roberts to the Court. Conservative columnist Henry Olsen wrote that the decision is "dangerously wrong" and that it may be the product of a "pandemic-induced frenzy."

Donald Trump has, for weeks, tried to capitalize on Roberts' alleged apostasy by putting together a list of conservative justices he would consider appointing should he get a second term, and should a seat come open. Say, for example, a seat currently occupied by an 87-year-old with a history of health problems and a cancer diagnosis. However, the names he's circulated have met with resistance among some conservatives, who look at the recent rulings from Roberts, and the high-profile defection from Neil Gorsuch in the LBGTQ cases, and think that the justices they're putting on the Court just aren't conservative enough. They demand a better process for identifying "true" conservatives, although nobody seems to know what that might be.

Conservatives really aren't paying good attention to Roberts. He knows what is important and what is not. He knows that LGBTQ rights and religion get lots of media coverage, but what really matters to him is keeping Republicans in power via gerrymandering, voter suppression etc. On the latter kind of cases, he is an unwavering supporter of the Republican Party. To mask that, he votes with the four liberals from time to time in the hopes that everyone is distracted by bright shiny objects and fails to notice that what he really cares about is keeping Republicans in power. With this mix of rulings, he can claim he is just calling balls and strikes (even if baseball itself is in trouble, as described below). Conservatives seem to be unable to comprehend that he is on their side on the stuff that really matters long term.

We do not know how this might play out in November, or if it will affect the election at all. However, it certainly appears that disillusionment is rising when it comes to the conservative judicial project. And generally, disillusionment causes at least some people to stay home on Election Day, particularly if they think their vote doesn't much matter. This is the primary reason that Barack Obama collected fewer votes in 2012 than in 2008; some Democrats felt he didn't live up to the promises of his campaign. Point is, if we had to guess, we would guess that recent developments on the Supreme Court do more to deflate Republicans than to motivate them. (Z)

COVID-19 News, Part I: NSA Robert O'Brien Tests Positive

Donald Trump has, at least for the moment, abandoned his COVID-19 denial, and admitted that the U.S. really does have an honest-to-goodness pandemic on its hands. On Monday, he got a particularly up close and personal reminder of that fact, as NSA Robert O'Brien has now tested positive for COVID-19. He is the highest-ranking federal official to announce a positive diagnosis.

It is true that the President is tested regularly, and that those around him go through screening before they gain access. However, it is also true that he is careless about things like masks and social distancing, that he interacts with a lot of people, and that the disease is often asymptomatic until it is too late. If we make it to Election Day and Trump hasn't contracted COVID-19, we can only think of three possible explanations: (1) He was really, really lucky; (2) He has an amazing immune system; or (3) He's lying, and he actually did contract the disease and hid it. Grover Cleveland famously hid surgery for, and recovery from, a cancerous tumor in his mouth, and in a time when all surgery was both major and life-threatening. So, option #3 is certainly possible. (Z)

COVID-19 News, Part II: Presidential Debate Moved

The second presidential debate this cycle was supposed to be held on the campus of the University of Notre Dame. Not anymore, though. On Monday, the Fighting Irish decided they weren't interested in fighting off a spike in COVID-19 cases, so they dropped out. A new location has already been announced; the debate is now set to take place on the Health Education Campus, which is a joint project between Case Western and the Cleveland Clinic. It would appear the thinking is that anyone who gets sick will at least be in the right place.

This isn't the only debate to be relocated. The first debate was supposed to be hosted by the University of Michigan. However, they decided that a Wolverine is no match for COVID-19, and so they also dropped out, with the University of Miami taking their place. Thus far debate host #3, Belmont University in Tennessee, is holding firm, but check back next week. All three of the venues say they are working on strict protocols to keep everyone safe, and in particular that they might go with very small, socially distanced audiences, or maybe no audiences at all.

Can anybody really believe, however, that all three debates will go off exactly as scheduled? Particularly the one set to take place in...Miami? Neither candidate is highly motivated to debate, Donald Trump because he doesn't like it, and Joe Biden because he's the frontrunner. It's entirely plausible, given the risks and the candidates' feelings, that one or more debates may be canceled. Some sort of remote setup, with Trump somewhere in the White House, and Biden in his basement, is also plausible. Obviously, it will depend a lot on where the pandemic stands as the time draws nearer. The first debate is set for Sept. 29, so there's about 9 weeks left before the rubber hits the debate stage. (Z)

COVID-19 News, Part III: Baseball Season Already Going Off the Rails

Continuing on the COVID-19 theme, as of last Thursday, Major League Baseball is back. At least, it's back for now. Before the resumption of the season, there was much bickering between players and management about safety protocols. And it appeared that the league had put stringent, but workable, rules in place, including frequent testing, social distancing, mask wearing, no high-fiving, no spitting, and the like.

Not so much, as it turns out. Anyone who has watched any major league games this season cannot help but notice, first of all, that while the (older) coaches and managers are pretty good about following protocols, the (younger) players are not. Among the players, social distancing is observed irregularly, and mask wearing almost not at all. There is much spitting, fist bumping, and high fiving. Further, things tend to degrade over the course of the game. On Friday, when Matt Olson hit a walk off grand slam to defeat the league's finest team, the Los Angeles Angels, he was mobbed by his teammates. You can see it for yourself here, if you wish:



The Gatorade shower at the end seems particularly gratuitous, and particularly unwise.

In any event, things took a turn for the worse on Sunday, thanks to the team from...wait for it...Miami. Four Marlins players tested positive for COVID-19 before Sunday's game. Nonetheless, the rest of the team decided—via a group text message—to play on. Management chose not to get involved in the decision and, on top of that, the players on the other team (the Philadelphia Phillies) were not warned, nor were the support staff at the stadium (umpires, broadcasters, etc.). As it turns out, there were another nine players and/or coaches who tested positive, bringing the total for the Marlins to 13. Miami's players are now quarantined in Philadelphia, as they await further test results and (possibly) figure out how to carry on without half their team. The Philadelphia players are also quarantined, and are also awaiting test results. Monday's Miami-Baltimore and Philadelphia-NY Yankees games were postponed.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred sat for an interview with the MLB Network (a.k.a., state-run media) on Monday, and said that he's not concerned, and that this is not a "nightmare" scenario. Given that he was speaking to a very friendly audience, whose paychecks he happens to sign, he wasn't pressed on this declaration. However, assuming he's being truthful (dubious) he is the only one who is unconcerned. The League didn't even make it through a weekend without having a major outbreak. And until Monday's test results are back, who knows how bad the Marlins' outbreak really is?

The Phillies' situation may be even more problematic. Given the tendency of COVID-19 to be asymptomatic in the early going, they may pass their COVID-19 tests with flying colors, pass the disease on to the Yankees, and then test positive later in the week. Oh, and the Baltimore Orioles had already arrived in Miami, a COVID-19 hotspot, for their postponed game with the Marlins. Now, they are just twiddling their thumbs while they wait. They could easily become carriers, too, and spread the disease to their next opponent (the Tampa Bay Rays). And all of this is before we talk about the fact that baseball is having trouble getting its tests turned around in time. It doesn't do much good if the test you took on Tuesday morning comes back positive...on Thursday night.

We bring this up because it's not hard to see all of this as a test run for what will happen at schools that resume in-person instruction in about a month. Imprecise and poorly enforced guidelines, teachers masking and social distancing like the coaches, students largely doing whatever they want, like the players. On top of that, testing turnaround times that are too long, coupled with a reluctance to cancel, even when canceling is the only reasonable option. Plus, the man at the top declaring that "all is well!" during interviews with very friendly media outlets. One can only hope the powers that be, across America's educational infrastructure, draw some useful insight from MLB's disastrous launch. (Z)

VP Candidate Profile: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)

We resume the VP profiles. Here is the list of candidates that we will profile, and the order in which we will profile them:

  1. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) [Score: 27.5]
  2. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) [Score: 26]
  3. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) [Score: 20]
  4. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)
  5. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
  6. Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA)
  7. Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D-Atlanta)
  8. Stacey Abrams
  9. Former NSA Susan Rice
  10. Gov. Gina Raimondo (D-RI)
  11. Rep. Val Demings (D-FL)
  12. Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH)

As a reminder, we're awarding up to 10 points across five different areas of concern: How ready the candidate is to assume the presidency, if needed; what kind of coattails the candidate might have in terms of helping the Democratic ticket in their state/region; what the candidate brings to the table in terms of "nuts and bolts" political skills like fundraising and debating; the depth of the candidate's relationship with Biden (to the extent that information is publicly known); and how well the candidate balances out Biden. So, the perfect running mate would score a 50, while Spiro Agnew would score a 0.

Gretchen Whitmer

Elizabeth Warren, you're up tomorrow. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

Lots of good news for Joe Biden. The must-have states are almost all blue to deep blue, and the insurance policy states are all coin flips. Minnesota is surprisingly close, but that's probably a fluke, and is balanced out by the fact that Arizona isn't (the former has 10 EVs, the latter 11). The best news for Trump, such as it is, is that he's up three in the must-have state of Ohio, though that too is balanced out by the fact that he's down three in the must-have state of Florida. (Z)

State Biden Trump Start End Pollster
Arizona 49% 42% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Colorado 52% 39% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Florida 49% 46% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Georgia 47% 46% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Michigan 52% 42% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Minnesota 47% 44% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
North Carolina 47% 47% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
North Carolina 51% 44% Jul 14 Jul 22 Marist Coll.
Ohio 45% 48% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Pennsylvania 50% 42% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Texas 47% 45% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Virginia 52% 41% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Wisconsin 50% 43% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult

Today's Senate Polls

There have been many polls of this race already, and they fall into two categories: Close ones, and ones where Cunningham is comfortably in the lead. There's no question that Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has assumed underdog status; the only question is how far under. (Z)

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
North Carolina Cal Cunningham 50% Thom Tillis* 41% Jul 14 Jul 22 Marist Coll.

* Denotes incumbent


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