Feb. 17




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Over 1,000 Former Dept. of Justice Officials Call on Barr to Resign

An open letter signed by 1,100 former federal prosecutors and Dept. of Justice officials, including former deputy AGs, assistant deputy AGs, and other high-ranking officials condemns AG William Barr for interfering in Roger Stone's sentencing and calls on him to resign. The letter says that when the AG helps a president be lenient to his convicted friends, we no longer have a constitutional republic, but an autocracy.

The letter also called on Dept. of Justice employees to be on the lookout for more political interference in the administration of justice and to report it to the DoJ inspector general and to Congress. Barr chastised Trump for interfering in Stone's case, but his lament would have been a lot more believeable had he refused to do Trump's bidding and let the original sentence recommendations stand.

Judge Amy Berman Jackson gets to make the final call and it is doubtful that she will be influenced by what Trump, Barr, and the Dept. of Justice want. She knows all the facts of the case and the law and can't be removed from office by Trump or Barr. Only Congress can do that, and they are most certainly not going to do so, especially since an impeachment proceeding has to start in the House.

What happens next is up to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). She could have the House Judiciary Committee request that the four prosecutors who withdrew from the Stone case on account of Barr's interference testify in public before the Committee. If they say that Barr's interference rises to the level of an impeachable offense, the House could impeach Barr. It is very unlikely that Barr would be convicted, but it's not impossible. This could be a way for Republican senators to send a useful message to fence-sitting voters and/or to the President without directly challenging the throne. If not, forcing half a dozen endangered Republican senators to once again take a tough vote could help the Democrats capture the Senate in 2020. Pelosi is an extremely shrewd poltician, of course, and will make a decision largely based on whether she thinks going after Barr will help or hurt the Democrats in the 2020 elections. (V)

Democrats Are Worried about a Possible Meltdown of the Nevada Caucuses

Nevada Caucus volunteers have told Politico that the sudden decision to drop the reporting app that malfunctioned in Iowa didn't leave enough time to get an alternative plan debugged. Caucus workers haven't had adequate training about how to report their results, and some haven't even been trained to run a caucus site. Also a concern is the security of the Internet connection that will be used to report the results back to the Democrats' "war room," where they will be tallied.

After the Iowa app was scuttled, Nevada Democrats tried out a couple of other apps and eventually gave up. The current plan is to use a spreadsheet from Google docs and have caucus workers fill in the spreadsheet on party iPads—a task for which they have not (yet) been trained.

It goes without saying (but we are going to say it anyway) that another caucus debacle would mean the Democratic race would remain in turmoil at least until South Carolina's primary a week after the Nevada caucus, on Feb. 29. But that is only 3 days before Super Tuesday. It would also mean that neither party will ever hold a caucus again, except for Wyoming's on April 4th, and those in four U.S. territories later in the Spring. North Dakota has what is called a "firehouse caucus," but that is actually a primary election run by the Democratic Party.

The Democrats have built some safeguards into the system, though. In addition to uploading the Google spreadsheet to the war room, the chair of each caucus will call up to report the results via a secure hotline. The operator there will check to make sure the phoned in results match the spreadsheet, to detect any errors or hacking. What could go wrong?

Well, to start with, some of the elderly caucus workers may be in awe of having a shiny new iPad in their hands, having heard about these marvelous devices from their grandchildren, but never having actually used one. Unfortunately, it is not likely that their grandchildren have taught them to use a Google docs spreadsheet. If one knows Excel well, using Google's spreadsheet isn't so hard, but not everyone in rural Nevada is an Excel guru. And Nevada has 2,000 caucus sites, so if just 100 people completely screw up, there will be mayhem.

And we don't even want to start on the threats to the process if grandpa decides to use the local WiFi service, instead of the cellular service the Party has contracted for, because WiFi is faster. The phone reporting system may very well catch hackers who have taken over the local WiFi, but resolving conflicts between the spreadsheet and the phoned in results could take time and if the results are delayed for a week, it will look like the Democrats are totally incompetent.

To make it worse, the caucus instructions are ambiguous. One key point is whether the supporters of candidates deemed nonviable in the first round can join together to revive one of the other candidates. For example, if Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) gets 12% and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) gets 10%, can their supporters band together to support one of the women in the second round, or do they have to migrate to one of the viable candidates?

In short, Nevada Democrats have less than a week to get their act together, and that may be a tall order. If they botch it, it is possible that future historians will write: "Donald Trump was reelected in 2020 because the Democrats were incapable of writing an app to count the votes." All of this brings to mind Will Rogers' famous answer to the question: "Are you a member of some organized political party?" to which he replied: "No, I'm not a member of any organized political party. I'm a Democrat." (V)

Kellyanne Conway Slams Bloomberg for Sexist Remarks

Michael Bloomberg's problems with black voters are well known, stemming from his infamous stop-and-frisk policy in New York, which basically told the police to profile young, black men. But Bloomberg, who often spoke his mind on other controversial topics, also had had things to say about women that wouldn't have passed muster back when he said them, and certainly won't now. On his birthday in 1990, a top aide handed him a 32-page booklet of profane quotes about women as a present. If he is the Democratic nominee, the Republicans might insert the entire booklet in toto into the GOP platform. It will certainly figure in all of their ads.

Kellyanne Conway is starting to give it a practice run, just in case. Yesterday she told Fox News' Chris Wallace that Bloomberg's remarks are fair game, despite the fact that Donald Trump's comments about grabbing women by the pu**y are even worse. She said Bloomberg created a workplace that was unsafe for women. Then she (ominously) added: "I think you're going to hear more of it."

And not all of it may come from Kellyanne. On "Meet the Press" yesterday, Joe Biden said: "$60 billion can buy you a lot of advertising, but it can't erase your record." Biden is clearly worried that if he has a middling showing in Nevada and barely ekes out a win in South Carolina, then many of the party pooh-bahs are going to leave him like rats leaving a sinking ship. Quite a few may decide that Bloomberg is their best hope, in no small part because he can outspend Trump 5-to-1 or more if he wants to. So Biden is already trying to take Bloomberg down, just in case. (V)

Bloomberg Is on the Cusp of Making Wednesday's Debate

The DNC changed the rules for getting on stage for the next debate, which will take place on Wednesday in Las Vegas, 3 days before the Nevada caucuses. The donor threshold has been dropped entirely, which potentially opens the door to former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who doesn't accept donations. Note that word "potentially." To actually make the cut, he has to register above 10% in one more national poll. He has already come in above 10% in three national polls, but he needs a fourth one to qualify.

Qualifying would be a mixed blessing at best. It would give Bloomberg some free publicity and perhaps introduce him live to a national audience that has up until now seem him only in campaign videos. Donald Trump calls Bloomberg "mini Mike," and indeed, Bloomberg, at 5'8", is shorter than Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), both of them 6'0" and also shorter than Pete Buttigieg, who is 5'9". In fact, Bloomberg is the same height as the two women who will be on stage, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren. But height isn't Bloomberg's biggest problem. He is largely free of charisma and would undoubtedly come under attack from Sanders and Warren for trying to buy the nomination. His strength, which is having very talented and expensive teams of people make ads for him, is of no use in a debate setting. He probably secretly hopes he won't have to face the other Democrats on stage before Super Tuesday, but his spokeswoman said if he qualifies, he will be there.

Even if Bloomberg is not on stage, though, the other Democrats are likely to take potshots at him, Sanders and Warren have an ideological bone to pick with him and the others surely realize that they will be competing with him for centrist voters on Super Tuesday. His absence is likely to encourage them to go after him, since he won't be there to respond. For practice, Bernie Sanders said yesterday that Bloomberg is incapable of producing the excitement needed to get the base to the polls. There's some truth in that, of course, but Bloomberg could mitigate that somewhat by putting a black woman on the ticket with him.

If Bloomberg fails to make the Nevada debate, he might still make the one in South Carolina, since the criteria are the same. And that debate will be the last one before Super Tuesday. (V)

Cracks Are Appearing in Biden's South Carolina Firewall

Joe Biden is hoping that South Carolina will throw him a lifeline in order to save his floundering campaign. A few months ago, which in politics is like saying "back in the Jurassic Period," Biden had an insurmountable lead in the Palmetto State, largely due to the fact that 60% of the state's Democrats are black and they loved him. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows his support among black South Carolina voters has dropped precipitously, from 59% before the Iowa caucuses to 27% now. Not a good sign.

On top of that, a new article from Politico, written after talking to dozens of lawmakers, consultants, and voters in South Carolina, indicates that Biden may not coast to the landslide victory he was hoping for. Some black leaders have dropped Biden and moved on to Bernie Sanders or Tom Steyer, who has bet the farm on the state. One of them, Dahli Myers, vice chair of the Richland County Council, said that she switched to Sanders because Biden's strategy was too tailored for old voters. Others pointed out that his message of going back to a pre-Trump America isn't very inspiring for voters of any age. And, of course, his message that he is the most electable candidate took a tremendous hit in Iowa and then again in New Hampshire. After all, if Democrats won't even vote for you, how can expect independents and moderate Republicans to do so?

Another problem is entirely of Biden's own making. He has barely been in the state campaigning. Maybe he will show up after Nevada votes, but it might be too little, too late. In contrast, Steyer has practically taken up residence in South Carolina and has a large staff on the ground talking to voters every day. Biden doesn't. Still, Biden has a reservoir of good will there due to his being Barack Obama's veep, but just because people think kindly of him doesn't mean they will vote for him. (V)

Klobuchar Has Raised $12 Million Since the New Hampshire Debate

Amy Klobuchar is just starting to come into her own, and the timing may be perfect. Democrats are desperate for a candidate who can beat Donald Trump and all the other main contenders have one or more serious flaws:

• Joe Biden: Too old
• Bernie Sanders: Too old, too angry, and too far left
• Pete Buttigieg: Too young and inexperienced, for some voters gay may not be OK
• Elizabeth Warren: Too far left and too much like an old schoolmarm
• Michael Bloomberg: A billionaire in a party that hates billionaires, and may be a racist/sexist
• Tom Steyer: See Bloomberg, except sans the racism/sexism
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): Too much like a Republican

Klobuchar is probably the only Democrat in the mix that nobody really dislikes and that doesn't have any serious liabilities. The news story from 2019 that she is tough on her staff is something she can use as a talking point, as in "When dealing with nasty people like Putin, you have to be tough." As a consequence of her strong debate performance in New Hampshire and third-place finish there, Democrats are starting to take a good look at her. They are also throwing money her way. She has raised $12 million since the New Hampshire debate, which is more than she raised in the entire 4th quarter of 2019. Of that amount, $2.5 million came in on the day after the New Hampshire primary. Peaking just as the voting is getting underway is every politician's dream.

Another thing that Klobuchar has going for her is that she will be tough for Trump to mock. She doesn't have any obvious characteristics that lend themselves to that, other than her being tough, which could easily backfire if she hits him for licking Putin's boots. If she wants to hit him hard, she could say: "My goal is to serve the American people, not build a big tower in Moscow." Trump might not even be able to come up with a pejorative nickname for her that sticks.

Also going for her is her track record of winning in red counties by getting Republicans to vote for her. For those Democrats whose top priority is beating Trump, that could be a selling point.

While $12 million is a lot of money, she has to decide how much to dump into Nevada and South Carolina and how much to save for Super Tuesday, where $12 million is the rough equivalent of "zero." Probably her best strategy is to spend half in Nevada and half in South Carolina in the hopes of coming in second or third in them. That would boost her campaign more than finishing fourth or fifth there and buying a handful of ads in California, Texas, and North Carolina. (V)

Trump Does the Daytona 500

While the Democrats are busy shooting at each other, Donald Trump headed for the track at the Daytona 500 NASCAR race yesterday. Yup, he drove around the track in "The Beast." Well, his Secret Service chauffeur did the actual driving, but he was in the "Beast" waving to supporters. Then after going around the track once, he spoke the famous words: "Gentlemen, start your engines." About 100,000 people showed up for the race in the key swing state of Florida, many of them the noncollege men who form his base.

Trump isn't the first president to show up at the Daytona 500, one of the top NASCAR races. Ronald Reagan and both Bushes also showed up at Daytona for other races, but George W. Bush was the only previous president to show up for the Daytona 500. Sunday afternoon, Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale tweeted out a photo showing the impressively large size of the crowd that showed up to see Trump. One small problem, though: The photo was actually from the Bush visit back in 2004. Oops! To his credit, we suppose, Parscale deleted the tweet instead of gesticulating wildly and insisting that Trump's Daytona 500 crowd was larger than Bush's. Period.

After spending the weekend at his new legal home at Mar-a-Lago, Trump will head out to the West this week for campaigning and fund raising. (V)

California's Newest Export: Blue Voters

Housing prices in the major cities of California are sky high and are forcing many people to leave the Golden State. In fact, 7 million have left since 2007. The political question here is: Do they bring their California values (and votes for the Democrats) with them, or do they take on the characteristics of their newly adopted (and generally redder) state? Timothy Egan has taken a look at this and concluded that they remain Democrats no matter where they go and that, consequently, is making their new home states bluer.

For example, 500,000 Californians have moved to nearby Nevada between 2008 and 2018. In that period, Nevada went from being a swing state to a fairly reliable blue state. Democrats won the presidential election there in 2012 and 2016. Both senators and three of the four representatives are Democrats. Also, the governor, lieutenant governor, treasurer, controller, and AG are all Democrats. The only statewide elected Republican is the secretary of state, and she won in 2018 by 6,000 votes out of 1 million cast.

Another state Californians like to migrate to is Colorado, which is also a former swing state turned solidly blue. In the past two presidential elections, the Democrat won by over 100,000 votes. Many observers expect that Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) is going to lose in 2020, meaning that both senators will then be Democrats. Four of the seven House members are Democrats. All five of the statewide elected officers, from the governor on down, are Democrats.

The next to fall could be Arizona, another popular destination for Californians. Donald Trump carried the state in 2016 by 91,000 votes out of 2.6 million, but Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) picked up John McCain's Senate seat in 2018, and many observers expect Democrat Mark Kelly to win the other seat this year.

One state popular with former Californians that is not going blue in 2020 is Texas. Democrats have big majorities in Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio, but that is not enough to offset the Republican majorities in the rural areas. Still, Beto O'Rourke came within 3 points of beating Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2018. While Texas is probably safe for the GOP this year, if migration from California keeps up at its current pace, Texas could become a swing state as early as 2024. If Texas were to become bluish by 2028, Republicans would be in deep doodoo. If Hillary Clinton had won Texas in 2016, she would have won the most electoral votes and been elected president. Republicans know that without Texas, they have almost no chance to win the White House, but the only way they can solve the problem is to divert the Great Wall of Trump from the Mexican border to Texas' western border to keep Californians out. And getting Texas to pay for it, might not actually be so difficult. (V)

Presidents' Day Quiz

Our Christmas in Washington quiz was well received, and we can hardly allow Presidents' Day to pass without a mention of some sort. So, we present a Presidents' Day quiz. 10 multiple choice questions; answers at the end.

1. Which of these things is true of George Washington?
   
   
   1. If we adjust for inflation, he was the second-richest president of all time, behind Donald Trump
   2. Though the "father of his country," he had no children of his own, as smallpox rendered him sterile
   3. He was the first president who had a parent live to see his inauguration
   4. He was the first president to have a submarine named after him
   5. Over the years, there have been more than 40 members of the House of Representatives who were named after him


2. Which of these is not actually named in honor of a U.S. president?
   
   
   1. The teddy bear
   2. The cartoon character Garfield the cat
   3. The artist Jackson Pollock
   4. Lincoln logs
   5. The band Jefferson Airplane


3. Of the various presidents who were also generals, which one outranks all the others?
   
   
   1. George Washington
   2. Andrew Jackson
   3. Zachary Taylor
   4. Ulysses S. Grant
   5. Dwight D. Eisenhower


4. Who is the first president to have been born in a hospital?
   
   
   1. Martin Van Buren
   2. Calvin Coolidge
   3. Franklin D. Roosevelt
   4. Lyndon B. Johnson
   5. Jimmy Carter


5. Who is the only president to also have been the head of a labor union?
   
   
   1. Grover Cleveland
   2. Franklin D. Roosevelt
   3. Harry S. Truman
   4. Ronald Reagan
   5. Barack Obama


6. Two actors have been nominated for an Academy Award for playing Abraham Lincoln in movies (Raymond Massey in Abe Lincoln in Illinois and Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln, with Day-Lewis also winning the award). Who is the only other president to produce Oscar nods for two different actors?
   
   
   1. George Washington
   2. Thomas Jefferson
   3. Dwight D. Eisenhower
   4. Richard Nixon
   5. Ronald Reagan


7. What rather unusual thing did Presidents Grant and Truman have in common?
   
   
   1. Webbed toes
   2. The same middle name
   3. Their daughters both married professional magicians
   4. They are the only two ex-presidents to visit Africa
   5. They were both terrified of spiders


8. Which of these notable awards is the only one to have been won by multiple presidents (or former presidents)?
   
   
   1. The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
   2. The Congressional Medal of Honor
   3. The Pulitzer Prize
   4. The Grammy Award
   5. People's Sexiest Man Alive


9. Which of these is true? Donald Trump is the only president...
   
   
   1. ...to have been born in New York City
   2. ...whose family held a multibillion-dollar fortune
   3. ...to be divorced
   4. ...to graduate an Ivy League school other than Harvard, Yale, or Columbia
   5. ...whose first lady was not born either a citizen of the U.S. (or what would later become the U.S.)


10. And finally, who is buried in Grant's Tomb?
    
    
    1. Nobody
    2. Ulysses S. Grant
    3. Ulysses S. Grant and his wife, Julia Dent Grant
    4. Ulysses S. Grant, his wife Julia Dent Grant, and two of their sons
    5. Ulysses S. Grant, his wife Julia Dent Grant, and two of Grant's loyal bodyguards

Quiz Answers

1. All of the above. We wanted everyone to get off to a good start, so every one of these answers is correct. From here on out, however, you're gonna have to earn it! Oh, and in case you are wondering, Washington's fortune would be worth just shy of $600 million in 2020 dollars.
   
   
2. C. The artist Jackson Pollock. His full name was actually Paul Jackson Pollock, and he was named in honor of his adoptive paternal grandfather. The teddy bear was indeed named in honor of Theodore Roosevelt, Garfield the cat in honor of James A. Garfield, and Lincoln logs in honor of Abraham Lincoln. The original name of the band Jefferson Airplane was Blind Thomas Jefferson Airplane, which is approximately 1/3 "Blind Lemon Jefferson," 1/3 "Thomas Jefferson," and 1/3 people out of their minds on psychedelic drugs. It was eventually whittled down to the name under which the band became famous.
   
   
3. A. George Washington. On the day he died, he was a three-star general. And that meant that, for more than a century, he was outranked by Grant (four or five stars, depending on your interpretation) and, for about thirty years, he was outranked by Dwight D. Eisenhower (five stars). During the bicentennial celebrations, however, Washington was retroactively promoted to General of the Armies of the United States, a six-star rank. Further, the legislation automatically awards him an extra star should anyone else equal his rank. So, as of March 13, 1978, Washington has been the correct answer to this question, and he will remain so forever afterward. Incidentally, Jackson and Taylor were both Major Generals (two stars) and so, unlike Grant and Ike, never spent any time during which they outranked Washington.
   
   
4. E. Jimmy Carter. All presidents before him were born at home, with the possible exception of Andrew Jackson, who may have been born on a ship.
   
   
5. D. Ronald Reagan, who led the Screen Actors Guild for a little less than 6 years.
   
   
6. D. Richard Nixon, who earned nominations for Anthony Hopkins (Nixon) and Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon). None of these other presidents has landed even one actor a nod, much less two actors. And so, the lesson would seem to be that if you want to win acting awards playing a president, you need to pick one who was either really, really honest, or one who was really, really dishonest.
   
   
7. B. The same middle name. It is sometimes reported that Grant's middle name was "Simpson," but that was a faulty assumption by the congressman who filled out the future general's West Point appointment paperwork. Although Grant kept the name Ulysses S. Grant (instead of his birth name, Hiram Ulysses Grant), he never actually chose a middle name beyond "S.," even joking in letters to his wife that she should go out and buy him a middle name. In Truman's case, his parents wanted to able to tell both grandfathers (who were named Solomon and Shippe) that the baby was named after them, so they stopped his middle name at "S." Sometimes, folks who know one of these two bits of trivia will point out that the "S" should not have a period, by virtue of not being an abbreviation for anything. True, but both men signed with a period (see here and here), and so their names are rendered with periods nonetheless.
   
   
8. D. The Grammy Award. No president has won a Nobel in Economics (though fictional president Jed Bartlet did). No president has been named People's Sexiest Man Alive (though presidential son JFK, Jr. was so honored). Theodore Roosevelt is the only Medal of Honor winner, while JFK is the only Pulitzer winner. However, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama all have Grammys, by virtue of having joined together to form the gangsta rap group P.W.A. (Presidentz Wit Attitudes), and having won rap album of the year for "It Takes a Nation of Millions to Elect Us President." Oops, wait, that may not be entirely correct. It appears that they actually won Spoken Word Grammys for the audiobook versions of their respective autobiographies. "It Takes a Nation of Millions" must not have won the year it was nominated.
   
   
9. E. All first Ladies, prior to Melania Trump, were either born in the American colonies as British subjects, or as American citizens, excepting Louisa Adams, who was born an American citizen, but in London. (This statement would not be true, however, if John Kerry had been elected in 2004, as Teresa Heinz Kerry was born in Mozambique as a Portuguese citizen). As to the other answers, Theodore Roosevelt was also born in New York City, the Kennedy fortune was worth $2 billion during JFK's lifetime, Ronald Reagan was also divorced, and James Madison and Woodrow Wilson were Princeton graduates.
   
   
10. A. Nobody. In the decade or so after Grant died, this was actually a bit of dark humor. There was a competition between several cities for the honor of serving as Grant's place of burial, and New York City over promised and under delivered. Consequently, the tomb remained only partly finished for many years due to a lack of funds, while Grant's body lay in a holding vault. Eventually, the New Yorkers scraped the necessary cash together, and Grant and his wife were relocated to an ornate sarcophagus within the tomb, where they remain to this day. However, regardless of the longstanding Groucho Marx gag on his show "You Bet Your Life," the answer remains "nobody." You don't bury people in tombs; you entomb them. Grant and his wife are roughly 6 feet above ground, not 6 feet below ground.

Another tricky one, again written by someone who's pretty good at writing tricky quizzes. If you got as many as four right, you should give yourself a pat on the back. (Z)

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