Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has formed a committee to explore whether she is interested in running for president. Actually, everyone already knows she is interested in running for president, despite promises to serve out her current term in the Senate. There are also at least three other female Democratic senators, namely Amy Klobuchar (MN), Kamala Harris (CA), and Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) who are interested in running. In view of the sure-to-be-crowded field, Warren decided it was better to be one of the first declared (or, at least, semi-declared) candidates. That means she'll spend some extra time with a big target on her back, and some extra months constrained by federal elections rules, but will get a head start on getting her pitch out there.
And speaking of her pitch, Warren paired her announcement—not coincidentally—with a four-minute video laying out her platform:
For those who don't want to watch, the video spends about a minute on Warren's bio, another minute on her record, and the rest emphasizing her commitment to racial justice, to reversing Americans' declining standard of living, to challenging Wall Street, to health care for all, and to fighting corruption. She is also, you may be surprised to learn, no fan of Donald Trump and his administration. The Washington Post has a more detailed breakdown of her platform here.
Trump is no fan of Warren, either. He sat for an interview with Fox News on Monday, and took a few shots at his potential competition. He offered the requisite slurs on her Native American ancestry and said he'd love to run against her. When asked if Warren has a chance of winning, he replied: "You'd have to ask her psychiatrist." So, it was the usual classy stuff. Of course, Trump only attacks people who he is threatened by, so his remarks effectively translate into: "She makes me very nervous about my chances." Consider that Rep. John Delaney (D-MD) has been a declared candidate for months, and Trump hasn't uttered a peep about him.
Our profile of Warren is here, for those who would care to review it. Meanwhile, the invisible primary has now become visible, just about as early as it ever has. Expect other high-profile candidates to make a move in the next several weeks, now that Warren has opened the floodgates. (Z)
December 31 was not just the first day of Elizabeth Warren's presidential campaign, it was also the last day of James Mattis' tenure as Secretary of Defense. On his way out the door, the Secretary sent a brief message to the troops that encouraged them to "keep the faith in our country," and to, "hold fast, alongside our allies, aligned against our foes." This may just have been directed at someone who does not seem to value America's allies, and does not tend to stand firm against her foes, but we're still trying to figure out what person Mattis might have had in mind.
Mattis was not the only notable departure on Monday. U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's resignation quiety took effect:
As we end 2018, I feel so blessed to have had the opportunity to rep the country I love so much. Thank you Mr. President for the honor of a lifetime. Tks to all who supported us these past 2 yrs. We are all blessed to live in the best country on earth. Happy New Year! pic.twitter.com/FeFVVVf8MQ
— Nikki Haley (@nikkihaley) December 31, 2018
Additionally, Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White, who had been a rising star in the administration, abruptly announced her resignation, effectively immediately. She was caught up in some Scott Pruitt-style bad behavior, like using her staffers to run personal errands. And Brett McGurk, who announced his resignation the day after Mattis did, and in response to the same thing (withdrawal from Syria), also concluded his service yesterday:
Today was my last day at the State Department. I wish my former civilian and military colleagues well as they work under extremely difficult circumstances to protect the interests of our great country. It was a privilege to serve alongside them.
— Brett McGurk (@brett_mcgurk) December 31, 2018
McGurk, an Obama appointee, was responsible for coordinating with other countries on the handling of ISIS.
In an...interesting development, given the turnover in leadership, U.S. Strategic Command made a bit of a gaffe on Monday, issuing forth with this tweet:
Whether this was meant as a joke about bombing people, or a brag about bombing people, quite a few folks found it to be in poor taste, such that the tweet was eventually deleted. One can only hope that this was a hiccup, and not a sign of things to come with Mattis no longer running the show. (Z)
This was entirely foreseeable, and now it is official: As soon as House Democrats get the gavel on Thursday, they will pass measures meant to re-open the federal government. The plan is to approve six spending bills that had already passed the Senate, along with a bill that will fund the Dept. of Homeland Security through February 8, and that would include the $1.3 billion in general "border security" money that has been on the table all along.
The tactics of Pelosi & Co. are as clear as they can be. First, they are going to put Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in a bind. For the first six bills, he can either bring them up for a vote, or he can explain to everyone why they were ok three weeks ago, but aren't ok now. And for the seventh, he can either move it forward, or he can explain why he's willing to gamble with the overall security of the U.S. in hopes of getting partial funding for a wall that he does not want, and that much of his caucus does not want. What it amounts to is that McConnell can: (1) pass the buck entirely to the President, or (2) can pass the buck partly and take partial ownership of the shutdown, or (3) can take total ownership of the shutdown.
Actually, the odds are that the Senate Majority Leader will try to massage it, and will announce that he's not going to bring up the bills because he knows Trump won't sign them. If so, that may be the messiest option of all for the GOP, since it means both Trump and the Senate Republicans will get lots and lots of blame for the shutdown. McConnell is a shrewd operator from a parliamentary standpoint, but his consistent sub-35% approval rating with the voters in Kentucky suggests that he's not so great from a PR standpoint. This approach, which he's been threatening for weeks, certainly appears to be a huge PR blunder.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump could end up in an even worse position than McConnell, depending on what the Senate does. Assuming all seven bills pass the upper chamber, Trump would effectively be left with three options: (1) He can back down, and give in; (2) He can sign the six bills and not the seventh, thus making crystal clear that he's trading overall national security for nebulous border security; or (3) He can refuse to sign all seven bills, giving him total ownership of the shutdown. And if the Senate doesn't vote at all, then that's still not much better for Trump since, as noted, McConnell is likely to (implicitly) blame the President for the lack of action.
In short, given that the polling on the shutdown and the wall is already against them, the GOP is soon going to be left with a lot of bad options. Like her or not, nobody can deny that Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is a shrewd operator. (Z)
It happened during the last prolonged shutdown (2013), and now it's happened again: The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) is suing the federal government, claiming that forcing people to work without pay is a violation of the Fair Labor Standards Act. Since the previous lawsuit was successful, there is no reason to think this one won't be, as well. And the very fact of the suit suggests that the AFGE is expecting the shutdown to linger for a good while.
Donald Trump has claimed that federal employees support him, but the lawsuit strongly suggests otherwise. So too does the venting being done by folks who have been forced to work without pay. The Huffington Post spoke to a number of TSA employees, for example, who endured the triple-whammy of holiday travel (always extra difficult for TSA employees to handle), no pay, and missing holidays with their own families. "While Congress and Mr. Trump get to stay home, enjoy their personal time with their families, and still get paid, we have to struggle and suffer," said one. "To say morale is low is an understatement. People on both sides of the political argument are infuriated at this," commented another.
A new poll also makes clear that federal employees are broadly opposed to what's happening. Nearly 80% oppose the shutdown. Only 30% think a wall is a good idea, and among those, more than a third think that the wall is not important enough to justify closing down the government. The poll also broke things down by agency:
Note that there is no agency where a majority is pro-shutdown, and the ones where shutdown support is the highest are, not coincidentally, the ones where employees are not currently missing paychecks. In any case, the next time Trump claims federal employees are behind him, you'll know for sure he's lying, as opposed to merely strongly suspecting he's lying. (Z)
Donald Trump, reality star that he is, manages to squeeze about 10 years' worth of headlines into each year that he's president. So much so, that it's worth pausing on the first day of 2019 just to recall how much stuff went down in 2018.
To start, The Guardian has a good piece running down the President's worst weeks this year, presented in chronological order. It's a good reminder of how often he manages to squeeze multiple disasters into a short timespan. Here's an executive summary (note that the authors only considered the regular workweek, and not the weekends):
That means that Trump effectively ended the year with consecutive contenders for the title of "worst week." Merry Christmas!
Now, let's look at the same basic question in a slightly different way. Here's our (necessarily subjective) list of the dozen most damaging things that happened to Trump this year. To avoid comparing apples to oranges, we will limit ourselves to events that unfolded over 48 hours or less. This list necessarily involves some amount of predicting the future, and is based on our assessment of the things most likely to affect Trump going forward:
Note that the headline mentions Trump's highs and lows, and we've only talked about lows so far. Now, let's move on to the highs. Ideally, this list would be equal in length to the previous list, in the interest of fairness and balance. The problem is that nearly everything that Trump does is designed to please the base at the expense of everyone else. We could easily list thirty things like that, but it wouldn't be terribly instructive, since it does not particularly shed light on how his re-election situation has changed. More useful are things that have some chance of being a net positive for him, electorally. The problem is that there are relatively few of those things. So, this list is only half as long as the previous one.
The first list considered Trump's personal and legal setbacks in addition to his political setbacks. This list is pretty much exclusively made up of political triumphs. That is because we struggle to see anything good that happened for Trump on the personal/legal front this year.
Anyhow, that is the rundown, as we (and others) see it. (Z)
Let us now look at the year Donald Trump had in 2018 through the lens of cold, hard numbers. First, some straight-up totals:
Daily Life
• Total lies told, per WaPo fact checker: 5,656
• Average lies per day: 15.5
• Tweets: 2,843 (more on this below)
• Interviews with Fox News: 41
• Campaign rallies: 44
• Pro-Trump bestselling books: 10
• Anti-Trump bestselling books: 15
• Days spent at Trump golf resorts: 67
• Rounds of golf: Approximately 51
Staffing
• Cabinet and cabinet-Level staffers who departed or announced their departure: 10
• High-level posts that remain unfilled: 330 (46%)
• High-level posts that don't even have a nominee: 126 (18%)
• Judges confirmed: 77
Mueller Investigation
• People charged by Robert Mueller: 36
• Trump associates who were convicted, pled guilty, or turned state's evidence: 10
• Approximate cost so far: $25 million
• Cost claimed by Trump in a tweet on Nov. 29: $40 million
Politics
• Bills signed into law: 241
• Bills signed into law in Barack Obama's second year: 258
• Bills signed into law in George W. Bush's second year: 269
• Bills signed into law in Bill Clinton's second year: 255
• Bills signed into law in George H. W. Bush's second year: 410
• Bills signed into law in Ronald Reagan's second year: 328
• Number of candidates endorsed by Trump during this election cycle: 90
• Number of candidates endorsed by Trump during this election cycle who won: 50 (55%)
• Number of new jobs added: 2.28 million
• Number of those jobs that are in coal mining: 1,100 (.04%)
And now, some comparative numbers:
Measurement January 1, 2018 January 1, 2019 Unemployment 4.1% 3.7% Dow Jones Industrial Average 24,809.35 23,327.46 S&P 500 2,683.73 2,506.85 NASDAQ 6,937.65 6,635.28 Russell 2000 Index 1,536.12 1,348.56 U.S. Trade Deficit $52 billion $76 billion National Debt $20.5 trillion $21.9 trillion Trump Approval, Rasmussen Reports 44% 47% Trump Approval, Gallup 40% 39% Trump Approval, YouGov 38% 42% Trump Approval, Quinnipiac 36% 39% Trump Approval, Fox News 45% 46%
While there are definitely some bright spots, on the whole it's not too pretty a picture, although Trump doesn't seem to be paying a political price for it. His base is with him no matter what. (Z)
And finally, given that Trump is the Twitter president, we would feel remiss if we did not take a look at his utilization of the social media platform this year. First, some more numbers for your perusal:
Overview
• Total number of tweets in 2018: 2,843 (2,227 in 2017)
• Tweets that attacked someone or something: 1,162
• Tweets per day: 7.8
• Most "productive" day: August 29, with 22 tweets
• Number of days with zero tweets: 16
• Total number of times a Trump tweet was viewed (a.k.a. 'impressions'): 178,229,924,923
Subject Matter
• Most common subject of presidential tweets: The economy (360, mostly early in the year)
• Second most common subject of presidential tweets: The wall (336, mostly late in the year)
• Third most common subject of presidential tweets: Russia investigation (310)
• Fourth most common subject of presidential tweets: Fake news (225)
• Ten most common words in presidential tweets, in order (besides function words like 'the' and 'is'): great, people, president, Trump, country, big, Democrats, thank, news, border
• Ten most common hashtags in presidential tweets, in order: #maga, #florence, #magarally, #hurricaneflorence, #hurricanemichael, #jobsnotmobs, #unga, #michael, #scotus, #florencencMentions
• Number of mentions of Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama: 200
• Number of mentions of Fox News: 129
• Number of positive tweets about Kim Jong-Un: 75
• Number of positive tweets about Republicans who are not Donald Trump: Less than 50
• Number of positive tweets about Democrats: Less than 10
And here are his five most popular tweets of the year, from fifth to first place, based on number of likes:
Judge Kavanaugh showed America exactly why I nominated him. His testimony was powerful, honest, and riveting. Democrats’ search and destroy strategy is disgraceful and this process has been a total sham and effort to delay, obstruct, and resist. The Senate must vote!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 27, 2018
To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 23, 2018
Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 29, 2018
Thank you Kanye, very cool! https://t.co/vRIC87M21X
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 25, 2018
Merry Christmas!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 25, 2018
It certainly gives a picture of what Trump and his base care most about. As you can see, 300,000 likes is very good for the President, and 500,000 likes is "tweet of the year" territory. Hopefully nobody will tell him that Barack Obama's most popular tweet of the year tripled that (and then some):
Young people have helped lead all our great movements. How inspiring to see it again in so many smart, fearless students standing up for their right to be safe; marching and organizing to remake the world as it should be. We've been waiting for you. And we've got your backs.
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) February 22, 2018
Or, if you prefer to compare apples to apples, here's Obama's Christmas tweet from this year, which did close to double the business of Trump's
Enjoy the holiday season with the ones you love. Michelle and I wish you a very Merry Christmas! pic.twitter.com/LKLqlYfFUw
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) December 25, 2018
And finally, here's a chart of Trump's overall Twitter usage:
When John Kelly was hired as chief of staff in July 2017, one of his main goals was to rein the tweeting in. And it would seem he had some success, for a while. But now that Trump is unfettered, and is going to choose only yes-men as staff from here on out, well...you can see where the trendline is headed.
And now you have a pretty good overview of the kind of year the President had in 2018. Buckle up, because the third season of this reality show figures to be even wilder. (Z)