Oct. 19

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New Senate: DEM 46             GOP 54

New polls: CA FL IN NJ NV NY TN WV
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: FL MO ND

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Catfight Could Put Kelly in Doghouse

Donald Trump likes a management style rooted in tension, where all of his underlings feel they are in competition with one another, and that whoever is not WINNING! is losing big. It makes him not the most fun person to work for, which is one of several reasons why this White House has such high turnover. It also means that violent arguments, like the one between Chief of Staff John Kelly and NSA John Bolton on Thursday, are bound to happen somewhat frequently.

The dust-up, which has been described by witnesses as a "screaming match," was, unusual for high-ranking federal officials, in full view of reporters and other non-staffers. The root cause was a difference of opinion over the administration's immigration policy. Donald Trump, and the notoriously hotheaded Bolton, think that DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen hasn't been doing her job, in that she's not been aggressive enough about cracking down on Mexicans crossing the border. This would be the same Kirstjen Nielsen who was directly responsible for the forcible separations of thousands of families, so it is not entirely clear how she could get too much more aggressive. Well, maybe she could order the children shot in front of their parents. Anyhow, in view of his and the President's feelings on the matter, Bolton really let Nielsen have it. Kelly is not concerned about immigrants, per se, but he did not care for Bolton's attacks on his protégé, and so he leapt to her defense. The shouting match lasted a couple of minutes.

The White House responded to the latest meltdown in its usual fashion. Despite the fact that there were witnesses, Donald Trump denied that anything happened. Sarah Huckabee Sanders did not deny, but she did explain where the fault really lies. You get three guesses as to whom she pointed the finger at, and the first two guesses don't count. You got it: the Democrats. Yes, it is true that there were no actual Democrats involved in the argument, but, "we are furious at the failure of Congressional Democrats to help us address this growing crisis," Sanders explained. Someone should really ask her who was to blame for the fall of the Roman empire, the bubonic plague, the defeat of the Spanish Armada, and the kidnapping of the Lindbergh baby. She might have some very interesting ideas.

It is not yet clear if there will be any fallout from this incident. However, Bolton is on the President's side of the argument, has his confidence, is fairly new to his job, and has never been given real power before (because nobody trusts him), so he undoubtedly wants to stay on. Kelly is on the other side of the argument, is no longer in Trump's inner circle, is sick of his job, and has no compelling desire or need to remain on board. So, if anyone's head is going to roll, it's going to be Kelly's. There was already a strong sense that he would be leaving after the midterms; perhaps this will speed up the timeline. (Z)

November Looks to Be Mueller Time

Although special counsel Robert Mueller is doing what he can to fly under the radar right now, given Justice Dept. guidelines that discourage major announcements in the 60 days before an election, there is only so much he can do. He and his team continue to interview witnesses and to make court appearances, and to negotiate with Donald Trump over possible testimony from him. They are also busily preparing reports about...well, whatever it is they are preparing reports about.

Bloomberg News is reporting that at least two major documents are likely forthcoming from Mueller's office, just as soon as the midterms are over. The first will reveal the Special Counsel's findings (so far) regarding deliberate collusion with Russia, and the second will cover obstruction of justice. There is no guarantee the reports will be made public, although it is hard to imagine that it will be viable for them to stay secret. Everyone knows that Donald Trump will release the reports instantly if they exonerate him. That means that if he does not do so, voters will (reasonably) interpret that as a sign of guilt, and will be driven into a fury. In that case, the administration is vastly more likely to release, and then spin like crazy, which is their usual approach. Beyond that, the White House leaks like a sieve, so the reports would likely end up in the New York Times' hands even if Trump tries to bury them.

Unlike the White House, Mueller's office does not leak. And so, the news that something is coming soon is not really rooted in insider reports, but in observation of Team Mueller's activity, and in reading between the lines. AG Jeff Sessions is almost certainly a goner once November 6 hits, and Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein may follow him out the door. That will remove most of Mueller's White House protection, and he could soon find himself taking orders from someone whose loyalty is only to Trump, or he could even find himself out of a job. If he issues his reports pronto, they will become a message in a bottle. No matter what happens, Mueller's conclusions and his evidence will already be out there.

Note that this does not mean Mueller will close up shop by December 1. Assuming he's allowed to keep working, he still has plenty of projects to work on, like wrapping up his dealings with all the people who have already pled guilty, like Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort. Further, there are undoubtedly plenty of corners of the collusion/obstruction issues that remain to be explored; a November report would likely be something more like a status update than a final assessment. It's worth noting that other serious investigations, including Iran-Contra and Watergate, went on far longer than this one has, and this is arguably more complicated than either. (Z)

There's Pretty Much Nothing Trump Won't Say

Donald Trump held yet another rally on Thursday night, and it was once again in Montana, marking his third rally trip to Big Sky country during midterm season. Maybe he was just improvising, or maybe the reality star in him knows these are getting old hat and so he needs to stir things up a bit. Whatever the case may be, he managed to shock quite a few people, which is not easy to do given the sizable tolerance that has built up. What did he do? Praised Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) for physically assaulting a reporter last year, declaring that, "any guy who can do a body slam...he's my guy," while mimicking a body slam. Trump also recalled Joe Biden's harsh words last year, and bragged that if he and Biden had a fight, "he'd be down faster than Greg would take him down."

Needless to say, for a U.S. president to laugh about bodily assault of anyone (much less a reporter), and to brag about how bad he would kick someone's ass, is both unprecedented and unpresidential. That said, this is who Trump is, and this is why his base loves him, so this bit could quickly become a part of his standard repertoire. (Z)

There's Not Much That's Off Limits for McConnell, Either

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) sat for an interview with Bloomberg News, one prompted in particular by the dramatic explosion of the federal government's budget deficit to $779 billion. While everyone knows what the root cause is, McConnell pointed the finger at the Democrats, and their unwillingness to curtail spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. "It's disappointing, but it's not a Republican problem. It's a bipartisan problem: unwillingness to address the real drivers of the debt by doing anything to adjust those programs to the demographics of America in the future."

It is remarkable that he can say this with a straight face, but such is the state of truth in Washington these days. Social Security, of course, is funded by payroll taxes and not the federal budget, so that's a complete red herring. Meanwhile, Medicare and Medicaid cost about $1.2 trillion annually, so cutting $779 billion would effectively require shutting one program down entirely and slicing the other in half. Doing that would seem to be political suicide, and threatening to do it is not that much better. But McConnell isn't up for reelection this year, and what he's really doing is laying the groundwork for the rest of his time in office, announcing that from here on out, everything is the fault of the (likely) Democratic-controlled House, and that if and when a Democrat replaces Trump, the Majority Leader will obstruct that person just as fully as he obstructed Barack Obama. (Z)

Many Bernie 2016 Staffers Not So Sure about 2020

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is clearly expecting to pick up right where he left off in 2016, and perhaps even to take things to the next level. Many of his former staffers, including some people who served in key positions (like chief of staff Michaeleen Earle) are not so sure that's a good idea, and many of them say they are unlikely to sign up for another hitch.

What seems to be the problem? There are a number of them, including:

This does not mean Bernie 2020 is dead, of course, since he's still in a better position in terms of name recognition and popularity than most of his competition for the nod. Still, his path has a far steeper uphill trajectory than he likely realizes. (Z)

Governors' Mansions: The Beacons of Democracy?

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has an interesting piece on the various contests for governor that are underway right now. Observing that since governorships are not subject to gerrymandering, or to the Senate small-state bias, or the Electoral College, they are a more direct reflection of the popular will than any other high-profile office. This being the case, and given the current political climate, it is very likely that when the dust settles in November, considerably more Americans will be living in a state led by a Democrat than one led by a Republican.

While that insight might make Democrats feel good—"See! THIS is what things would look like in a fair system," they might say—Silver does not really suggest a practical implication here. After all, gerrymandering, the Senate small-state bias, and the Electoral College do exist, and so what happens with the governors' races is not directly predictive of...well, anything. However, there is a practical implication, even if Silver didn't mention it. As we have pointed out a number of times, in most states, governors have the power to veto Congressional maps. And so, the likely change in the polarity of the governors' mansions, coming at this particular point in the process (i.e., right before the census) will eventually spill over into the House of Representatives. (Z)

Double Whammy for Rick Scott

Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) is in a real slugfest right now as he tries to knock off Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL). And on Thursday, two pieces of news broke that certainly did not help his chances. The first is that while Scott was chairing a pro-Trump PAC in 2016, he collected a generous $500,000 donation from the CEO of a Wall Street equity firm. A week later, the Florida State Board of Administration (which has three members, of which Scott is one) invested $200 million with that firm. It certainly looks like a big, juicy bribe, since the equity firm (Cerberus) is a high-risk, high-fee firm. In other words, exactly the wrong kind of firm when investing large amounts of money on behalf of folks who are looking for nice, safe, moderate returns. Just in case the quid pro quo was not clear enough, Cerberus sent another $975,000 to the pro-Trump PAC shortly after getting the $200 million in business.

The second story, courtesy of the New York Times, discusses financial shenanigans involving Scott's personal fortune, which exceeds $250 million. Like most politicians whose name does not rhyme with Tonald Drump, Scott put his assets in a blind trust when he took office. Or he said he had done so, at least. The truth is that the only trustee of the blind trust was Rick Scott, which is dubious. Further, he set up a parallel trust in his wife's name, which made it possible to effectively track his own investments by watching those that "belonged" to his wife. Failing to divest one's self is not good, in general, but lying about it makes it that much worse.

This race has been one of the dirtiest in the country already, so it's not entirely clear how much impact it will have now that Nelson has a couple more fistfuls of mud to fling. Still, neither of these stories looks good for Scott, and they play into the already existing narrative that he's a rich plutocrat who was primarily interested in lining the pockets of himself and his friends. (Z)

Today's Senate Polls

Either Phil Bredesen has made a heck of a comeback in Tennessee, or else that poll is an outlier. (Z)

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
California Dianne Feinstein* 35% Kevin de Leon (D) 22% Sep 17 Oct 14 USC
Florida Bill Nelson* 45% Rick Scott 46% Oct 01 Oct 05 Florida Southern Coll.
Florida Bill Nelson* 48% Rick Scott 45% Sep 19 Oct 02 Kaiser Family Foundation
Indiana Joe Donnelly* 55% Mike Braun 45% Oct 13 Oct 15 Vox Populi
New Jersey Bob Menendez* 49% Bob Hugin 40% Oct 11 Oct 15 Monmouth U.
Nevada Jacky Rosen 44% Dean Heller* 45% Sep 19 Oct 02 Kaiser Family Foundation
Nevada Jacky Rosen 51% Dean Heller* 49% Oct 13 Oct 15 Vox Populi
New York Kirsten Gillibrand* 58% Chele Farley 33% Oct 10 Oct 16 Quinnipiac U.
Tennessee Phil Bredesen 44% Marsha Blackburn 43% Oct 08 Oct 13 SSRS
West Virginia Joe Manchin* 53% Patrick Morrisey 47% Oct 13 Oct 15 Vox Populi

* Denotes incumbent


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