Nov. 06

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New Senate: DEM 48     Ties 2     GOP 50

New polls: AZ CA FL MO NJ NV
Dem pickups: NV
GOP pickups: ND

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Programming Note: We will be live-blogging the results, starting around 6:30 p.m. PST on Tuesday.

Politico: Democrats Will Win House, Republicans Will Keep Senate

Yesterday we had an item saying that Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, and Nate Silver all predict the Democrats would win the House and the Republicans would hang onto the Senate. Today Politico, which is also tracking every House and Senate race individually, has come to the same conclusion. Politico sees Democrats leading in 216 House seats and the Republicans leading in 197, with the other 22 a toss-up. To hold the House, the Republicans would need to win nearly all of the toss-ups, a very tall order. It is possible, though: Historically, toss-ups don't break 50-50; one party generally wins a clear majority of them.

The toss-ups are spread around the country. There is a batch in Southern California, but also tight races in Minnesota, Texas, New Jersey, New York, Florida, and elsewhere. Everything depends on turnout and with storms expected in Midwest and the East today, some people may be deterred from voting, which could easily affect the outcome in close races. Here's the weather map:

weather map

The Senate is a horse of a different color simply due to the map. Democrats are in danger in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida. Republicans are in danger only in Nevada and Arizona, and just maybe in the open Tennessee seat. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R-ND) is probably a dead woman walking, so to take the Senate the Democrats would have to hold all their other seats and also win Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee. If they pulled it off, a lot of people would be very, very surprised.

On the other hand, the Democrats are probably going to do well in the gubernatorial races. They are almost certain to pick up Michigan, Illinois, and New Mexico. Another nine or so gubernatorial races are toss-ups, including a couple of biggies: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Georgia. If a big blue wave materializes, despite the storms, Democrats could pick up as many as 10-12 governorships, and with them, the power to veto gerrymanders after the 2020 census. In a very big blue wave, the Democrats could also pick up as many as a dozen state legislative chambers.

After 2016, everyone is being a lot more cautious about predictions this time. That said, the unambiguous conventional wisdom going into the midterms is a Democratic House, a Republican Senate, and a large number of Democratic pickups in the governors' mansions without many (or any) of those flipping the other way. (V)

What to Watch for on Tuesday

If we categorize governors, representatives, and senators as "major" officeholders, then there are right around 500 major political contests tonight. The situation with the Senate races is fairly clear. If, say, four of Florida, Missouri, Arizona, Indiana, and Nevada go the Democrats' way, they had a good night on that front. If they go 4-for-5 or 5-for-5 in those races, and also take one or two states among Texas, Tennessee, and North Dakota, they had a fantastic night. On the other hand, if two or three among Arizona, Nevada, New Jersey, Florida, Missouri, and Indiana go the Republicans' way, they will be dancing in the streets, and Donald Trump will have blisters on his hands from all the self-congratulatory tweets he'll send out.

Beyond that, however, what races are worth watching? McClatchy, NBC News, The Guardian (UK), USA Today, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Fox News, Politico, WIRED, the Daily Caller, MSNBC, FiveThirtyEight, and CNN, among others, have articles or lists or videos that try to address that question. So, you can open all of those links and get a lay of the land. Alternatively, you can just read our cheat sheet:

The "canary in a coal mine" races—These are the races in the eastern part of the country that will likely give the first indications as to which way the winds are blowing on Tuesday:

The Healthcare Races—The Democrats' #1 issue this midterm season was healthcare. We want to protect it, they said, and the GOP wants to take it away. These races will give a sense of how well that message landed:

The Immigration Races—While the Democrats were running on healthcare, the Republicans were primarily running on immigration. Actually, opposition to immigration. These are the races that will help to judge the salience of that message:

The Racist Races—These are the races where candidates tried to profit off of other people's, well, races. We will see if, in 2018, that rouses older, less enlightened white folks to action, or if it spurs higher minority turnout:

The Trade War Races—These are the races that are particularly likely to show the effect of Donald Trump's tariffs, and so to perhaps give some insight into 2020:

Other Key Races—A handful of important contests that don't quite fit into the above categories:

So, there you have it. Everybody make sure to get out and vote today; CNN has a very nice rundown of key information for voters who need it, covering all 50 states (polling places, links to state voter information pages, answers to key questions, etc.). As noted above, we will be live-blogging; for those who want more fine-grained results, Politico and the New York Times both do a good job. (Z)

Trump Closes with Anger

Yesterday, Donald Trump campaigned in Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri, thundering about left-wing mobs who, led by a 78-year-old grandma from California, who will ransack the country and turn it into Venezuela unless Republicans win all the marbles. He attacked all immigrants, including legal ones. If he knew his history better, he could have paraphrased former Alabama governor George Wallace and said: "Xenophobia now, xenophobia tomorrow, xenophobia forever." Trump is completely focused on immigration now, ignoring the tax cut, the good economy, and everything else. He is betting the farm on turning out his immigrant-hating base.

In Cleveland, Trump focused on the race for governor of Ohio, where Mike DeWine and Richard Cordray are neck and neck. The Senate race there is all but over, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) getting another term in what is expected to be a landslide victory.

In Fort Wayne, Indiana, Trump's focus was knocking off Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN), who is in a close race with Mike Braun, who is hugging Trump as tightly as he can. Donnelly is trying to put as much distance as he can between himself and the national Democrats, but it is a tough thing to pull off.

In Missouri, Trump stumped for Missouri AG Josh Hawley, who is trying to unseat Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO). Like Indiana, Missouri is a deep red state, but McCaskill has run a strong campaign and polls have shown her slightly ahead, although well within the margin of error.

If Republicans win in all the places Trump has stumped, he will surely claim it was his efforts that saved the Party. If they lose in all of them, he will blame illegal immigrants voting, Democratic dirty tricks, faulty voting equipment, endorsements from failing newspapers, and many others. The only one whose fault it will not be is Donald Trump's. (V)

Will There Be a Youth Wave?

Young people are notoriously bad voters. In the past three decades, 18-29 year-olds never managed a turnout above 21% in a midterm election. Put in other terms, in a normal midterm, 80% of young voters sit it out. A big question, and one on which a lot rides, is whether this year will be business as usual or will young voters actually show up.

We do have some indicators, though, that show this year may be different. Here are some data points:

The biggest issue among young voters is mass shootings. While most of the rest of the population has long forgotten the shooting in Parkland, FL, in which 17 people were killed, young voters have not. Youth turnout in the primaries this year doubled in some battleground states, with Parkland being a prime factor. This wouldn't be the first time observers were expecting young voters to show up in droves, with the predicted "wave" being more like a trickle, so don't necessarily hold your breath waiting for it. In any case, by tomorrow night, we'll know. (V)

Early Turnout Was Huge This Year

Now that Election Day is upon us, a final tally for early votes is available, and it's huge: 36 million people. That is far ahead of the last midterm, in 2014, when 27.2 million voters cast early ballots, though it lags behind the presidential year of 2016 by about 6 million votes.

This election, and this political environment, are unusual enough that any conclusions drawn from these figures should be taken with a pinch of salt or two. However, it is certainly the case that high turnout generally favors the Democrats. It is also the case that polls are based on assumptions about how many people will vote, and what the electorate will look like. If this election has unprecedented turnout, it means that data from past midterms is not entirely predictive for what this year will look like. What happened in 2016 should already have taught us all not to be surprised if the polls are way off; this information reiterates that lesson. Any surprise defeats or successes should not really be that much of a shock. (Z)

We May Never Know Who Won in Georgia and Texas

Reports from early voting are showing that voting machines in Georgia and Texas are deleting or flipping votes, apparently to the advantage of the Republicans. Experts doubt this is due to hacking, but to the use of ancient machines and outdated software. None of the machines have any way to audit the vote totals. Five states (Georgia, South Carolina, Louisiana, Delaware and New Jersey) exclusively use machines whose totals cannot be audited. Another seven states (including Texas) use them in some counties. All voting experts agree that the machines should immediately be thrown in the recycle bin and paper voting reintroduced.

In September, a federal judge ruled that continued use of these machines could deny Georgia voters the constitutional right to a fair election, but refused to go the next step and forbid the state from using them. Georgia's secretary of state, Brian Kemp, has refused to have the machines replaced, saying that is unnecessary and would just cost the taxpayers millions of dollars. That it might also cost his opponent, Stacey Abrams, thousands of votes surely never even entered into his thinking. Nope, not for one minute.

Marian Schneider, president of Verified Voting said that problems have arisen in every election since 2006, when these machines were first widely deployed. For example, in Palm Beach County, FL, the electronic machines recorded 78 blank ballots in a village council race that was decided by four votes. The worst thing about electronic voting machines is that there is no way to tell if they are working correctly. The only solution is to get rid of all of them, starting tomorrow. (V)

We May Be Left in Suspense Tonight

Politics has much in common with a sporting event, in terms of the competition, and the loyalty to one's team/party, and the fact that elections and sports matchups end with a final score. However, nearly all sporting contests are resolved by the end of the evening; it does not take several days to figure out who actually won the Super Bowl, or the finals at Wimbledon, or game seven of the World Series.

Not so in politics, of course. There are always a number of contests that linger on for a day or two or ten past Election Day, and it is likely that there will be an unusually high number of those this year, for a number of reasons. To start, Georgia and Louisiana require candidates for most statewide offices to win a majority of the votes in order to be elected. That's not likely to be an issue in Louisiana this year, but it could come into play in Georgia, particularly in their hotly-contested gubernatorial race. It's also a potential issue in Mississippi, which doesn't normally have this requirement, but will likely have it come into play in the Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and Mike Espy (D). Since Mississippians are choosing the replacement for a senator who resigned (Thad Cochran), the normal rules do not apply, and a majority of votes is required.

Beyond the runoff and potential runoff states, there are probably going to be a lot of close elections. Some of those will require a recount, others will have to wait until absentee/provisional/other special voters are counted, and still others will be in both categories. Further, lawsuits are well within the realm of possibility. The Justice Dept. is sending election monitors to various sites, ostensibly for legitimate reasons. But if those monitors appear to have intimidated voters, or if wide swaths of people are denied their right to vote by flaky voting machines, or voter information websites that just happen to go offline at an inopportune time, or unavailable polling places, or any of a host of other issues, the ACLU's attorneys will be ready and raring to go. The upshot is that everyone certainly hopes that control of the House and Senate and governors' mansions will be clear by the end of the night, but any or all of the above might not be. (Z)

Today's Senate Polls

Boy, oh boy, there are going to be a lot of nail biters tonight. Unless, of course, the polls are all off, and there aren't many nail biters at all. Four polls of Florida are all good news for—Andrew Gillum. It's true that the pollsters didn't ask about him but Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is ahead in the four latest polls, and it is hard to imagine many Nelson-DeSantis voters. It is a given that virtually everyone voting for Nelson will also vote for Gillum, so Florida might just have its first black governor-elect tomorrow. Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) will be jumping for joy knowing that a black person can win the mother of all swing states, and in the deep South as well.

The bottom line on the Senate is that the Democrats have 45 seats nailed down and the Republicans have 50 nailed down (except maybe Tennessee), so the Democrats have to win Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida to even have a shot at winning the Senate. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is not going to bed early tonight, but he is not wetting his pants right now, either. (Z & V)

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Arizona Kyrsten Sinema 49% Martha McSally 48% Nov 01 Nov 03 Emerson Coll.
California Dianne Feinstein* 50% Kevin de Leon (D) 36% Nov 01 Nov 02 SurveyUSA
Florida Bill Nelson* 50% Rick Scott 45% Nov 01 Nov 03 Emerson Coll.
Florida Bill Nelson* 50% Rick Scott 46% Nov 03 Nov 04 St. Pete Polls
Florida Bill Nelson* 50% Rick Scott 46% Oct 30 Nov 02 Marist Coll.
Florida Bill Nelson* 51% Rick Scott 44% Oct 29 Nov 04 Quinnipiac U.
Missouri Claire McCaskill* 46% Josh Hawley 49% Nov 01 Nov 03 Emerson Coll.
Missouri Claire McCaskill* 47% Josh Hawley 44% Oct 30 Nov 01 Marist Coll.
New Jersey Bob Menendez* 55% Bob Hugin 40% Oct 29 Nov 04 Quinnipiac U.
Nevada Jacky Rosen 49% Dean Heller* 45% Nov 01 Nov 04 Emerson Coll.

* Denotes incumbent


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