Here is a compact table listing all of the Senate candidates.
The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the two independents as Democrats):
In a reversal from 2014, the Democrats will be playing offense, trying to pick up at least five seats (or four seats and the vice-presidency) in order to reclaim control of the Senate. As they do so, there are several pieces of good news for them:
The news is not all bad for the Republicans, however:
The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republican ones following.
Click on a picture for the candidate's webpage.
Click on a name for the candidate's entry in Wikipedia.
Click on a party (D) or (R) for the state party.
The indicates a race to watch.
All links open in a new window. Type CTRL-W in the window to close it (Command-W on a Mac).
Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Kamala Harris (D) |
Loretta Sanchez (D) |
Barbara Boxer is retiring, and it's a two-woman race to be the Democrat that succeeds her.
California Attorney General Kamala Harris is the first person of African or Asian descent
to occupy that office (her father is Jamaican and her mother is Indian). She thus has
ties to two constituencies that play an important role in California politics (7% of the
population and 13%, respectively). Harris is also well connected to power brokers within
the Democratic Party, who see her as a rising star and a possible presidential candidate
in 2020 or 2024. She has the endorsements of President Obama, California governor Jerry Brown, the California
Democratic Party, and Boxer herself, among others. The alternative is nine-term
representative Loretta Sanchez, who presents a fairly striking contrast to Harris.
A former Republican who hails from a conservative district in Southern California, Sanchez is a leading Blue Dog
(conservative) Democrat with strong ties to the Latino community. California's
jungle primary system means that Sanchez and Harris will face one another in November,
despite being from the same party, because they were the top two finishers in the state's
June primary. Harris stumbled early in the campaign, burning through several managers,
but she's out-fundraised Sanchez by a vast margin ($14.5 million to $4.5 million).
Sanchez, meanwhile, has a somewhat lackadaisical record as a Representative (she's missed
more votes than any other member of California's Congressional delegation) and is running an underwhelming campaign.
Several unforced errors, such as accusing Obama of being a racist when he endorsed Harris,
have Democratic insiders making liberal use of phrases like "train wreck." Sanchez's only hope
is that a lot of Latino voters show up to the polls and a lot of Republicans vote
for her to stop the more liberal Harris from winning. The latter scenario is not looking likely;
many GOP voters say they will just leave that part of the ballot blank.
Our prediction: Harris, in a rout |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Michael Bennet (D) |
Darryl Glenn (R) |
Support for Michael Bennet is tepid in Colorado, and given that the state is purplish with
a strong libertarian bent, Republicans see this as their second-best opportunity (behind
Nevada) to take a Democratic-held seat in 2016. That assessment may technically be
accurate, but "second-best chance" does not necessarily mean "good chance." To start,
Bennet is the former head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and a
prodigious fundraiser—he has raised more money this cycle ($12.8 million) than all but five of his Senate
colleagues. Further, the Republican side of the contest was a bloodbath, with
no less than 14 candidates scrapping with one another for the nomination. Darryl Glenn
eventually emerged triumphant, but the Air Force veteran, Trump supporter, and staunch conservative
is a very bad match for this purplish state, and he's raised only $3.6 million. The Kochs,
who spent big money in Colorado in 2014, announced they were sitting this one out, and the GOP
largely abandoned Glenn to the wolves, so they can focus on playing defense elsewhere.
Our prediction: Bennet is safe |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Richard Blumenthal (D) |
Dan Carter (R) |
Richard Blumenthal kept his head down and his nose clean during his first six years in the
Senate and now wants a second term, which he will get. A very blue state, Connecticut has no
statewide officeholders who are Republican and has not sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate
since the 1980s. Wrestling magnate Linda McMahon was the GOP candidate in the last two
elections; this time, the party will turn to State Rep. Dan Carter. He has actual
political experience, unlike McMahon, but his chances of getting elected won't be much better
than hers were. Carter tried to make hay of an old controversy: Blumenthal's saying
he served "in Vietnam," when the truth is that he served in the Marine Corps reserve
during the Vietnam era, but never actually left the United States. The issue did not harm
the Connecticut Senator six years ago, and it's not going to have an impact now.
Our prediction: Blumenthal by 20 |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Brian Schatz (D) |
John Carroll (R) |
Hawaii is the bluest state in the Union. When Brian Schatz ran in the 2014 special
election to succeed deceased Senator Daniel Inouye, he beat his Republican opponent by 40
points (President Obama did even better in 2012, winning the state by 46). Hawaii has not
given its electoral votes to the GOP since the Reagan landslide of 1984, and has only ever elected
one Republican to the U.S. Senate (Hiram Fong, who served from 1959 to 1976).
This year, the Republican Party will field pilot, lawyer, and perennial candidate John Carroll. He's 86
years old, has gone 0-for-6 in his previous bids for office, has raised $54,000, and has not
updated his campaign website since 2012 (when he last ran for the Senate).
Our prediction: Schatz, in the biggest landslide of the night |
Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Chris Van Hollen (D) |
Kathy Szeliga (R) |
Popular senator Barbara Mikulski is retiring after five terms. While Marylanders sometimes
elect Republicans to statewide office (e.g., Gov. Larry Hogan in 2014), they turn deep
blue when voting for senators. Mikulski won by 25 points in 2010, and her junior
counterpart Benjamin Cardin won by 30 in 2012. The drama, then, was in the Democratic
primary. Emerging victorious after a brutal, racially-polarized
contest was seven-term representative Chris Van Hollen, who managed to comfortably outpoll Rep. Donna Edwards.
Born in Pakistan to an officer of the U.S. Foreign Service, he has won much
praise for his expertise in foreign affairs and budgetary matters. In the
general election, he is facing Maryland House Minority Whip Kathy Szeliga, who
he has already attacked for raising money for Citizens United, and also for
being pro-Trump. Neither of these things pleases Marylanders; Trump is so
unpopular in the state that even Hogan says he won't vote for him. Van Hollen
has also out-fundraised Szeliga by a margin of 10-to-1. She's trying to fight back by
pointing out Van Hollen's lack of private sector experience, but the criticism has not
moved the needle.
Our prediction: Van Hollen, in another landslide |
Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) |
Joe Heck (R) |
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring after five terms—perhaps because of age,
perhaps because of a recent injury that left him blind in one eye, perhaps because he is
tired of tough reelection campaigns. The most likely explanation, however, is that he
beat nondescript, gaffe-prone tea partier Sharron Angle by only 6 points in 2010 and might well lose
to a more serious candidate in 2016. Whatever the case may be, Reid will yield the
Democratic mantle to his handpicked successor, Catherine Cortez Masto, who served eight
years as Attorney General of Nevada before being term limited. If elected, she would be
the first Latina to serve in the U.S. Senate (though she could theoretically end up sharing that honor
with Loretta Sanchez). Enjoying wide name recognition across the state, Masto will
have the considerable financial and logistical resources of Reid's political network at
her disposal. The Republican candidate will be two-term representative Joe Heck, who
surprised and delighted the party establishment when he decided to run. A physician and
brigadier general in the U.S. Army Reserve, Heck is an excellent campaigner and fundraiser
who gives the Republicans far and away their best chance to capture a Democratic-held
Senate seat in 2016. In Nevada's primary, Heck easily brushed aside a challenge from Angle,
who unwisely decided she would return for another bite at the apple. This has been
a very close race, millions of dollars have poured in from
outside of Nevada (about $13 million on each side), and the airwaves in Nevada are
absolutely chock-full of nasty commercials. The Koch brothers are targeting the state for some
of the money that they won't be spending on the presidential contest, and Sheldon
Adelson is using his shiny new toy, The Las Vegas Review-Journal, to
promote Heck's campaign. The deciding factor could well be how many of the
state's 780,000 Latinos and 234,000 Asians go to the polling place on Election
Day; early voting tallies are promising for the Democrats.
Our prediction: A very tough state to poll, for various reasons, but Cortez Masto |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Chuck Schumer (D) |
Wendy Long (R) |
New York is a very blue state and Chuck Schumer is popular, has $27.5 million in the bank
(twice as much as any other 2016 Senate candidate),
and knows how to make use of the advantages of incumbency. He is also an aggressive
self-promoter. As Bob Dole once observed, "The most dangerous place in Washington is
between Chuck Schumer and a camera." (This infinitely recyclable joke was originally told
about Theodore Roosevelt more than a century ago). Schumer won his last election by 33 points,
and the one before that by nearly 50. His opponent will be lawyer Wendy Long,
a political novice whose main claim to fame is losing the 2012 Senate race to Kristen
Gillibrand by 43 points. There's nothing to see here, then, unless you happen to like carnage.
Our prediction: Schumer, in a rout. He will then take over for Harry Reid as leader of the Senate Democrats. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Ron Wyden (D) |
Mark Callahan (R) |
A cancer scare had Ron Wyden considering retirement, but he's healthy now and gunning for
a fifth term. He is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, and that suits
deep-blue Oregon just fine; voters have bestowed an average margin of victory of 30
points upon him in his three previous reelection campaigns. Meanwhile, there is no Republican
bench in the state. The only member of the GOP currently representing Oregon at either the
state or federal levels is Rep. Greg Walden, and he is content to keep his very
safe seat in the House. Therefore, the red team is left with IT consultant Mark Callahan,
whose hobby is running for political office (including a "campaign" for president in 2012).
It would be hard to come up with a worse candidate, since Callahan has a bankruptcy
and a messy divorce in his past, and has switched from Green to Democrat to Republican depending on the election
he was contesting. He's also raised $31,000 to Wyden's $8.3 million. Moving on.
Our prediction: Wyden can start his victory party early. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Patrick Leahy (D) |
Scott Milne (R) |
Patrick Leahy is, interestingly, the only Democrat ever elected to the U.S. Senate from
the state of Vermont. That unexpected quirk is a byproduct of his extremely long term of
service, coupled with the fact that his junior colleague Bernie Sanders is so far left
that he runs as a Democratic Socialist. When Leahy began his career in the 1970s, Vermont was
reddish-purple, and he had to contend with difficult campaigns and close elections.
However, he has not had to break a sweat since the last time a Clinton tried to move into
the White House—1992—when he won by "only" 10 points. Vermont was in the
process of turning very blue then, and Leahy has won every election since by at least 35
points. Now the Dean of the Senate, he will easily win an eighth term, putting him within
striking distance of Robert Byrd's record nine terms and 51 years in the Senate. His
sacrificial lamb...er, challenger...will be Scott Milne, a travel agent and political novice
who presently has the princely sum of $83 in the bank. Milne ran for the governorship of Vermont
in 2014, and even kept the race close, but he won't do the same this time.
Our prediction: Leahy, by 30 or so. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Patty Murray (D) |
Chris Vance (R) |
Patty Murray was nearly toppled by the Republican wave in 2010, winning her fourth term by
less than 4 points. Her position is stronger now; she played a leading role in averting a
government shutdown in 2013, and this cycle she has raised an impressive $9.8 million for
her campaign. Her opponent is former State Rep. Chris Vance, who served one term
in the early 1990s, has also been chair of the Washington Republican Party, and has raised
a considerably less impressive $427,000. He's no threat.
Our prediction: Murray, who will improve on her 2010 result by about 10 points. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Richard Shelby (R) |
Ron Crumpton (D) |
The last time Alabama sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was in 1994, when they
elected...Richard Shelby. Then a Dixiecrat who was finishing his first term, he
promptly changed parties after the election
and became part of the "Contract with America" Republican wave. In the two decades since,
Alabama has gone from being light red (+6 for Bush in 1992 and for Dole in 1996) to deep
red (+22 for Romney), and Shelby has consistently won by a 2-to-1 margin when up for
reelection. No Democrat stands a chance against him in 2016. Consequently,
the best the Party could come up with is political novice and marijuana activist
Ron Crumpton, who—appropriately enough—appears to be stoned in every picture
he's ever posed for. This is not going to play well in socially-conservative Alabama,
as indicated by the fact that Shelby has $9.8 million on hand, while Crumpton has
$3,910 (most of which is presumably earmarked for snacks).
Our prediction: Crumpton's dream of going to the U.S. Senate will go up in smoke. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Ray Metcalfe (D) |
During her first full term in the Senate, Lisa Murkowski was a reliable "Main Street"
(moderate) Republican. Her reward for this, when she ran for reelection in 2010, was to
be primaried by tea partier Joe Miller. Murkowski countered by running as an independent,
becoming only the second person to win a regular U.S. Senate election as a write-in
candidate (the first was Strom Thurmond, and he did it with a name that is much easier to
spell). In her second term, Murkowski has moved in a centrist direction, presumably an
acknowledgment that the far right of the political spectrum is a lost cause. She
is currently the most popular politician in Alaska (sorry, Sarah Palin!) and has more
than $2.4 million on hand—a veritable fortune in Alaska, where men are men and advertising is cheap.
Murkowski drew a trio of opponents. The Democrat is Ray Metcalfe, a former state legislator
and vocal Bernie Sanders supporter whose progressive views are out-of-step with Alaska
voters. He is currently, and openly, at war with the Alaska Democratic Party.
Considerably more viable is retired U.S. Army colonel Margaret Stock,
who is running as an independent. A Harvard-educated immigration attorney and
former law professor, she is also recipient of a MacArthur Foundation "genius" grant. In addition
to immigration, she is a specialist in national security issues, and she regularly consults for the U.S.
Army. There is also Miller, who is still beloved by tea partiers, and who swooped in to
claim the Libertarian nomination when Cean Stevens dropped out of the race.
Given Alaska's relatively small population, the anti-Murkowski forces might have given the
Senator a run for her money, if they had coalesced around one candidate (with Stock the
most logical option). They did not.
Our prediction: Murkowski by 25. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
John McCain (R) |
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) |
As he tries for a sixth term, John McCain has the advantages of near-universal name
recognition, $5 million in the bank with a prodigious ability to raise more, and status as
a war hero for everyone except Donald Trump. In solidly red Arizona, his margin of victory in his five previous Senate
contests has never been less than 24 points. However, this cycle gave the 2008 GOP presidential nominee
the fight of his life. To start, he drew a formidable opponent
in popular Democratic representative Ann Kirkpatrick. She was unopposed in the primaries, and so was
able to sit on the sidelines and watch while McCain had to grapple with tea partier Kelli Ward.
On top of that, the Senator was hit by scandal, as one of his lead fundraisers (Emily Pitha) was
arrested for running a meth lab. And if the triple play of Kirkpatrick, Ward, and Pitha
were not enough, there's also The Donald. Put briefly, McCain will need votes
from Arizonans who support Trump. And he will need votes from Arizonans who hate Trump.
He thus performed a perilous high-wire act, trying to embrace Trumpism, but not to embrace
it too enthusiastically. McCain is also doing a delicate dance on increasing the minimum wage, which Kirkpatrick and 75% of
Arizona voters support, but much of the Senator's base bitterly opposes. And finally, the cherry on top of
McCain's sundae full of trouble is that he will be 80 on Election Day, has a lengthy history of nagging
health problems, and has publicly acknowledged that he's running out of steam. Given all of these liabilities,
Kirkpatrick gave the Senator a serious run for his money, and nearly pulled even in the polls in
mid-September. However, you don't get to be a five-term senator without having a few tricks up your sleeve,
and McCain has managed to re-assert himself as the dean of Arizona politics.
Our prediction: McCain, but by the narrowest margin of his career. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
John Boozman (R) |
Conner Eldridge (D) |
John Boozman won his first Senate contest by 21 points, one of the many
Republican successes in the 2010 midterm elections. As time passes, however,
this victory is seeming more and more like it came despite Boozman, rather than
because of him. He has proven to be a poor fundraiser and an unpopular senator,
with a mediocre 34% approval rating. He has also had health problems, including
emergency bypass surgery in 2014. These things being the case, he is more
vulnerable than most Southern Republicans. The Democratic establishment tried to
recruit a strong opponent, such as former governor Mike Beebe, but ultimately ended
up with federal prosecutor Conner Eldridge. Eldridge tried hard to use Donald Trump
as an anchor around Boozman's neck, and also to make hay out of Boozman's unwillingness
to debate. Unfortunately for him, it didn't work. Bill Clinton's coattails might
have rescued Eldridge, but there's no chance that Hillary's will.
Our prediction: Boozman by 15. |
Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Patrick Murphy (D) |
As we learned in 2000, Florida is a large state with many different constituencies, and is
fairly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. These facts set the stage for a
battle royale that will end up as one of the most expensive Senate races in U.S. history. On the
Democratic side it is Patrick Murphy, a moderate (and a former Republican) who easily
defeated outspoken lefty Alan Grayson in the Democratic primary. He has the backing
of the Democratic establishment, and raised more than $14.5 million. On the Republican side,
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) declared that he was retiring. Then, just days before the filing
deadline, he decided he wasn't. Most of his competition promptly cleared out, and the remainder
were easily dispatched in the primary. Rubio has the advantages of name recognition, and support
among much of Florida's Latino community. However, this race is likely to be decided by liabilities,
as in: whose end up doing less damage. Murphy's problems include the fact that he's got limited
business and political experience, he exaggerated on his resume, his grandfather has done some
politically embarrassing things (like do business with Donald Trump), and he comes off as kind of goofy
(having been given the nickname "Party Boy Patrick").
As to Rubio, Floridians know of his disdain for the Senate
and his poor attendance record, and they handed him a pretty stinging rebuke in the presidential
contest. Further, the Senator refuses to promise that he will finish his second term, making it
very clear that his real goal is to mount a second presidential run, and not to be an advocate for Floridians.
On top of that, the midterm electorate that sent Rubio to Washington the first time is
rather different than the electorate he'll face on Election Day. Despite these problems,
Rubio has led in the polls consistently since he got back into the race, but the race has
gotten tighter and tighter. Still, Murphy's rise probably began just a bit too late.
Our prediction: Rubio in a squeaker, put over the top by the Latino vote, and a Koch brothers-funded ground game. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Johnny Isakson (R) |
Jim Barksdale (D) |
Johnny Isakson is popular in Georgia, having won his first two Senate races by 18
and 19 points, respectively. He loves Jesus and hates taxes, gay marriage, abortion, and
Obamacare, so he's not vulnerable to a challenge from the right. In June of 2015, he revealed that he
has been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease, but thus far the news has not affected his
reelection plans. The Democratic candidate is Jim Barksdale, an investment manager
and political novice. Normally, someone with that resume would be cannon fodder, but
Barksdale ran a very effective Bernie Sanders-style outsider campaign, promising
to take on the banks and the Washington insiders. Like Sanders, he even makes fun of his
own fashion sense, and sells Barksdale flat caps on his website. Unlike
Sanders, however, he was able to write his campaign a check for $3 million. He won an
easy victory in the primaries, and it seemed like he might make a campaign of it, with the
first Barksdale-Isakson poll giving the Senator only a 12-point lead. The problem for the challenger
is that the polls have been stuck there ever since. Georgia is trending purple, but not
quickly enough to send a Democrat to the Senate in 2016.
Our prediction: Isakson by 10. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Mike Crapo (R) |
Jerry Sturgill (D) |
Mike Crapo was bracing for a possible primary challenge from Rep. Raul Labrador, but
Labrador decided to remain in the House. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Idaho is like
the Loch Ness monster—rumored to exist, but actual evidence is scarce. They have not
managed to get a senator elected since the 1970s, and that streak will continue in 2016.
The only Democratic candidate to declare before the filing deadline was Jerry Sturgill, a lawyer and
investment banker who is a political unknown. The only real question in this race is whether Crapo
will improve upon the 71% of the vote he received in 2010.
Our prediction: Idaho will be the red version of Hawaii. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Mark Kirk was a very moderate representative, and for the past six years he's been a very
moderate senator. Unfortunately for him, "moderate Republican" was barely viable in the
Republican wave of 2010 (Kirk won his seat by less than 2 points), and in presidential
years Illinois turns very blue. The Senator's tendency to put his foot in his mouth is not
helpful, either. In just the last year, he has had to apologize for characterizing bachelor
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) as "a bro without hos," for describing black communities as "the
one(s) we drive faster through," and for accusing President Obama of trying to "get nukes
to Iran." He really blew it, though, in the Senatorial debate, when he snidely mocked
his opponent's family's military record. Not only is Tammy Duckworth herself a military
hero, having lost both legs while serving as a helicopter pilot during the Iraq War,
but her family has answered the call of duty all the way back to the days of the
Revolution. A charismatic two-term representative,
Duckworth is the first disabled woman ever elected to the House, and the first Asian
American to be elected to Congress from Illinois (she's Thai). Though she has no statewide experience,
She passed her first test with flying colors, crushing Chicago Urban League President and CEO Andrea Zopp
in the primaries. Kirk, for his part, is something of a man without a party, since he
has consistently lambasted Donald Trump, and was in turn abandoned by the GOP, who decided
their money would better be spent in cheaper states, and on candidates with a better chance of winning.
Our prediction: Duckworth is easily going to be elected Illinois' new junior senator. |
Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Todd Young (R) |
Evan Bayh (D) |
Indiana is a fairly red state, but the retirement of Sen. Dan Coats has put this seat into
play. On the Republican side of the contest, the candidate is
three-term representative Todd Young, who fended off a challenge from tea partier Marlin Stutzman.
Young is a Naval Academy graduate, a former marine,
a stellar campaigner and fundraiser, and he has enjoyed the strong support of the GOP establishment,
particularly Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). The conservative super PAC Senate Leadership
Fund allocated $4 million to pro-Young advertising, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
chipped in $1 million, and the Koch Brothers also gave several million.
The Democrats thought their candidate was going to be former five-term representative
Baron Hill, but on July 11 he unexpectedly dropped out of the race. Fortunately for the blue
team, Hill was replaced by former Indiana Secretary of State, two-term governor and two-term
senator Evan Bayh, the son of former three-term senator Birch Bayh. Needless to say, the
Bayh name is exceedingly well known in Indiana, while Young has limited name
recognition. Plus, Bayh had $9.3 million in the bank left over from his
previous time as senator. What seemed like a moderately easy hold for the Republicans became a
hotly contested race. George W. Bush has lead the campaigning for Young,
though whether or not that will help is anyone's guess. The campaign has also, to nobody's surprise,
taken on a very nasty edge. Young has called Bayh a carpetbagger and a part of the "Washington
establishment," Bayh has slammed Young's record on Social Security and his support for Donald Trump.
Hoosiers are being bombarded by negative commercials on both sides.
Our prediction: Tossup. Indiana is one of the hardest states to poll, and so this one is just too tough to call until the votes are counted. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Patty Judge (D) |
Chuck Grassley is now 83 years old and briefly considered retirement before
committing to run for his seventh term. He is very popular in Iowa, thanks in particular
to his success in bringing home the pork (in a state that loves pigs), and to his custom of holding a public
meeting with constituents in each of Iowa's 99 counties every year. Though the state has
been trending blue, particularly in presidential years, Grassley has been impervious to such
forces. In 1992, for example, Bill Clinton won Iowa by 5 points and Grassley still beat
his Democratic opponent by 42. However, thanks to his chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary
Committee, he became the poster child for the GOP's controversial choice to delay
consideration of a possible replacement for Antonin Scalia. This caused a serious
Democratic challenger to enter the race—her name, appropriately enough, is Patty Judge.
Having served as Iowa's Secretary of Agriculture and Lieutenant Governor, she
has name recognition and a political network. Unfortunately for Judge, the SCOTUS issue
faded from view, and so Grassley hasn't been harmed by his role in the saga.
Our prediction: Judge is going to be gaveled out of politics in a landslide. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Jerry Moran (R) |
Patrick Wiesner (D) |
Kansas was staunchly Republican when the GOP was the more liberal party, and remained so
as it became the more conservative party. The last time the state's voters sent a
Democrat to the U.S. Senate, they also gave their electoral votes to an upstart governor
from New York who promised a "New Deal" for Americans. In other words, Jerry Moran does
not need to be worried about the Democrats, and as a proud member of the Tea Party Caucus,
his right flank is also safe. A pair of Democrats decided at the last minute to run;
lawyer, accountant, and political unknown Patrick Wiesner won the
opportunity to lose to Moran, who will hold this seat for as long as he wants it.
Our prediction: One poll has Moran up by 64; that's not impossible. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Rand Paul (R) |
Jim Gray (D) |
Kentucky has a reputation for being a solidly red state, but that's largely at the federal
level. In state elections, Kentuckians often lean fairly Democratic (though that did not hold true
in 2015). Rand Paul—who is only moderately popular—is
vulnerable to a serious Democratic challenge, and he got one from Lexington Mayor
Jim Gray. Gray is wealthy (and so can self-fund), has a reputation for being a
"straight shooter," has a small business background, and is openly gay. He thus has something
of a maverick persona that actually plays quite well in the Bluegrass State.
Paul has some weaknesses; his strongly libertarian views are out of the Republican mainstream,
and Kentuckians are not thrilled that he used them as his "insurance policy" against
a failed presidential run. However, Gray never quite got enough traction.
Our prediction: Paul by 15. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Candidate Unknown (R) |
Candidate Unknown (D) |
This race is currently up in the air. After being defeated in Lousiana's gubernatorial election,
amidst a series of debilitating scandals, incumbent Sen. David Vitter announced his retirement.
And the state's other nationally-prominent Republican, Bobby Jindal, is even more unpopular.
That has cleared a path for Reps. John Fleming and Charles Boustany, former Rep. Joseph Cao, and
State Treasurer John N. Kennedy to enter the race.
It's turned into a good old-fashioned, down and dirty, Bayou-style campaign: A new book claims Boustany
regularly utilized the services of prostitutes, who later turned up dead.
Boustany denies the charges, quite plausibly, and says Fleming's campaign is behind the book.
Fleming's campaign insists they
had nothing to do with it, and that they have no idea who stole the plot of The Godfather, Part II.
Fleming is also the current fundraising champion, with just shy of $2.5 million in the till, though
polls actually favor State Treasurer John N. Kennedy. There are five other Republicans, including former
KKK Grand Wizard David Duke (who spent much of his time at the Senatorial debate railing against Jews), but
they are non-factors. Given the weakened state of the Louisiana GOP, as well as the fact that
2016 is a presidential year, this could have been an excellent pickup opportunity for the Democrats.
However, they have struggled to find a top-flight candidate. Ultimately, a grand total of
eight Democrats declared; the most interesting is Gary Landrieu. As a first cousin of the dynastic
Landrieu family, his last name has magic powers in the Bayou State. However, he's not one of the
stars of the family; Moon, Mitch, and Mary all opted out. In other words, we're talking Patrick Kennedy
here, not John or Bobby or Teddy. There is no primary in Louisiana; all
declared candidates will appear on the general election ballot. If the Democrats can somehow
coalesce around Landrieu, it's possible that he could monopolize the
Democratic vote and come out ahead if the Republican vote splits two or three or four ways.
He would still have to survive a December 10 runoff if he did not collect at least 50% of the vote,
a runoff that would get national attention
(and tens of millions of dollars) if control of the Senate hangs in the balance.
Our prediction: Whatever happens, we won't know who Louisiana's new U.S. Senator is until December. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Roy Blunt (R) |
Jason Kander (D) |
Roy Blunt is an incumbent, represents a red state, and—though a moderate—was
able to avoid a serious challenge from the right this year thanks to the Todd Akin "legitimate rape" fiasco in
2014. That is the good news for the Senator. The bad news? His approval ratings are
among the worst in Congress, with considerably more than half of Missourians unhappy with
the job he is doing. Further, the Democrats recruited a very strong candidate in
Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, a charismatic military veteran who is currently
(at 35) the youngest statewide elected official in America (and the only one born in the 1980s).
Kander is going to need (and may get) some coattails, either from popular Democratic governor
Jay Nixon, or from Hillary Clinton, whose husband
used to govern next-door neighbor Arkansas (in both 1992
and 1996, Bill won Missouri, making him the last Democrato do so). The
race was another ugly one, with Blunt slamming Kander for being anti-gun and
Kander responding by airing a commercial that had everyone talking: It shows him
assembling an AR-15 rifle (and talking about his military service) while
blindfolded. Kander has also hit Blunt over the SCOTUS obstructionism, and
painted him as a Washington insider, a carpetbagger (largely because Blunt, who
was born in Missouri, was photographed wearing a Washington Nationals cap), and
a Trump toady.
Our prediction: This one is going to be very close, and may well be undecided by the end of the night on Tuesday. However, we're going to go out on a limb and predict that Kander pulls it out. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
New Hampshire is becoming bluer by the year, and though Kelly Ayotte is fairly
moderate and fairly popular, the trend may catch up with her eventually. Will
that be in 2016? The answer is in the hands of the state's most popular Democrat,
Gov. Maggie Hassan, who decided to forego a third term as governor to mount a
challenge. This compelled Ayotte to pivot toward the center, criticizing Sen. Ted
Cruz (R-TX) as extremist, and also praising President Obama's climate change
accord. Those statements angered many New Hampshire Republicans, who are also less-than-thrilled
that she's not a Second Amendment zealot (even though she has an 'A' from the NRA). Some of
those voters may stay home or vote third party on Election Day. Donald Trump has
also been badmouthing Ayotte, though who knows if this will hurt or help her.
Definitely not helpful for Ayotte was when she slipped up during the Senatorial debate,
and described Donald Trump as a role model for children. She couldn't apologize fast
enough for that one, though the damage was already done, and a pro-Hassan commercial using that
clip hit the Internet within 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Hassan has had a major headache of her own to deal with: Rick Schubart, a
former teacher at exclusive Phillips Exeter Academy who was recently dismissed
from the school for engaging in multiple acts of sexual misconduct with
students. Hassan's husband was a principal at the school, and Schubart even donated
money to her previous political campaigns. At best, say Republicans, the situation
shows poor judgment on Hassan's part, and at worst, maybe she helped facilitate a
coverup. In short, the mud is flying on both sides. The key factor in the race could prove
to be...James Comey. Before his letter to Congress, Hillary Clinton was flying high
in New Hampshire, and her coattails seemed likely to bring Hassan along for the ride.
Afterwards, the Granite State got bearish on Hillary. Can Clinton and her coattails rebound,
now that she's been cleared again? It's just too hard to say until the votes are counted.
Our prediction: A tossup; there just hasn't been enough time for the polls to shake out |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Richard Burr (R) |
Deborah Ross (D) |
As Richard Burr tries for a third term in this purple state, his mediocre approval ratings
(around 35%) have Democrats sensing an excellent pickup opportunity. However, party
officials got their biggest disappointment of the 2016 campaign when former
senator Kay Hagan declined to enter the race. Her decision is not terribly surprising,
given the challenges of running for a Senate seat in North Carolina. To start, the state's
numerous large and distinct media markets make statewide elections very expensive. Indeed,
Hagan's loss to Thom Tillis in 2014 was the most costly U.S. Senate contest ever,
with a total of $111 million expended. In addition to the stresses of constant
fundraising, it is also the case that North Carolinians like to change senators as
regularly as some people change socks. In most states, after a difficult first election, a
sitting senator has a huge advantage in any subsequent contest and can coast a little bit
(or, sometimes, a lot). Not in North Carolina, where 13 of the last 14 Senate
races have been decided by single digits, and where each of the nine senators elected
between Jesse Helms in 1972 and Burr in 2004 survived for only a single term (or less).
So, the Democrat won't be Kay Hagan, it will be the much less visible former State Rep. Deborah Ross,
a pragmatic moderate in the mold of Hillary Clinton.
Burr easily fought off a challenge from the right in the form of physician Greg Brannon,
while Ross scored an equally overwhelming victory over three challengers on the Democratic
side of the contest. The DSCC wants the Tar Heel state badly, and has steered steer lots of resources to Ross.
North Carolina is also a place where the negative impact of Donald Trump could be palpable, so Burr has
reason to be nervous. It does not help him that he got enmeshed in a mini-scandal,
having directed $200,000 of PAC money to his in-laws and son in the past 16 years. It's
not illegal, but it's not a good look, either. This is going to be another "coattails"
kind of race; if Hillary Clinton can win the Tar Heel State by 3-4 points, she probably
brings Ross along for the ride.
Our prediction: Burr is going to eke out a victory. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
John Hoeven (R) |
Eliot Glassheim (D) |
John Hoeven may be the most popular politician in North Dakota, having served 10 years as
governor prior to his first term in the Senate. In Washington, he compiled a voting record
designed to keep constituents happy—anti-ObamaCare, anti-immigration, pro-life,
pro-Keystone pipeline. North Dakota voters are not entirely averse to voting for
Democrats—including their other senator, Heidi Heitkamp—but overall the state is very red.
Further, the Democratic bench there is paper-thin. After the deadline for volunteers passed,
the party persuaded State Rep. Eliot Glassheim to give it a shot. The fact that he's 78—a
bit long in the tooth to be starting a Senate career—and that his campaign "website" is
a Facebook page suggests that his only chance of getting elected is if Hoeven is caught
in bed with a live boy or a dead girl (to borrow Edwin Edwards' phrase).
Our prediction: There will be no live boys or dead girls. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Rob Portman (R) |
Ted Strickland (D) |
If you look up 'bellwether' in the dictionary, you will find a picture of Ohio. The last
time the state failed to give its electoral votes to the winning presidential candidate
was 1960, and in the half-century since, Ohioans have split their electoral and Senate
votes only twice (John Glenn/Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Howard Metzenbaum/George H. W. Bush
in 1988). So, no Senate race is more likely to be affected by the presidential
contest than this one. During his first term, Rob Portman did his best to improve his reelection
odds: He traveled to more than 30 countries in order to develop a reputation as a foreign
policy specialist, strengthened his ties to the establishment by serving as chair of the
National Republican Senatorial Committee, and banked an impressive $10 million in
campaign funds. However, his approval ratings are anemic. The Democrats'
candidate is former governor Ted Strickland, who has had a terrible campaign
so far, losing the endorsement of several labor unions, and worrying Democrats
with his passive approach. He's also lagged Portman in the fundraising department,
$10.2 million to $19.2 million. Strickland has consistently been down in the polls,
and it just kept getting worse. As such, both Republican
and Democratic super PACs halted the flow of money to Ohio, thinking that there
might be better races in which to invest.
Our prediction: Strickland is a dead man walking. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
James Lankford (R) |
Mike Workman (D) |
Oklahoma is probably the reddest state in the nation, the only one in which Barack Obama
never won a single county. James Lankford is a good match for his constituents, an
arch-conservative who laments not only ObamaCare but also Medicare, who would like to shut
down the EPA, and who wants to dramatically expand the Patriot Act. After winning the 2014
special election to finish Sen. Tom Coburn's unexpired term, Lankford wants a full term in his
own right. His opposition will be Mike Workman, a teacher and political consultant who
was crushed the one time he ran for political office. Soon, that will be "both
times he ran for political office."
Our prediction: Sorry, Mike, it just didn't work, man. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Katie McGinty (D) |
Although Pennsylvania is the state that gave us Rick Santorum, it is actually quite blue in presidential years.
Pat Toomey has been
something of a mirror image of Santorum—fiscally conservative, but socially moderate. He
barely eked out a victory over Joe Sestak in the Republican wave year of 2010, and so
he has reason to be concerned heading into 2016. That said, Toomey will benefit from his
low-key, non-confrontational nature—which Pennsylvanians like in their politicians.
The Democrat is Katie McGinty, an environmentalist with strong ties to the
Clintons and to power brokers in Pennsylvania, but zero experience in elective
office. With strong establishment backing, she won a bruising primary over the
maverick Sestak, who was back for another go-round. If she is elected, she will
be Pennsylvania's first female senator, and the Party is hoping that a Hillary
Clinton-Katie McGinty ticket will attract a lot of women voters. The DSCC went
all out to make sure McGinty had plenty of resources in what has
been one of the highest-profile Senate races. Gun control became a big issue
following the Orlando shootings, since Toomey helped defeat a bill that would have
banned suspected terrorists from buying guns. He's tried to take a moderate position
on the Second Amendment, is was hit by McGinty and her allies for being too
gun-friendly, and was also hit but gun-rights groups for not being gun-friendly enough.
In fact, some Second Amendment groups are advising a vote for McGinty, so as to send
a message to other politicians who dare to soften their stance.
Though there will be some ticket-splitting going on, it is likely that as goes the
presidential race, so goes the U.S. Senate race.
Our prediction: McGinty, in a close one. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Tim Scott (R) |
Thomas Dixon (D) |
South Carolinians like their Senators ultra-conservative and Tim Scott, who was appointed
(and then elected) to finish Jim DeMint's unexpired term, fits the bill. A devout
evangelical Christian, Scott strongly opposes Iran, abortion, ObamaCare, labor unions, and
earmarks for 49 of the 50 states (the $300 million for dredging Charleston's harbor, he
argued, was about job creation and not pork). The lone Democrat to declare is Thomas Dixon, a pastor and
activist who co-founded The Coalition: People United to Take Back Our Community. He is also
a political novice who acknowledges being an alcoholic and drug addict, and who has spent
time in prison. There may be states where that would not be a deal-breaker (Nevada?),
but South Carolina is not one of them.
Our prediction: This one is about as safe as it gets for the GOP.. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
John Thune (R) |
Jay Williams (D) |
The state that was home to liberal three-term Democratic senator and presidential
candidate George McGovern, as well as more recent three-term Democratic senators Tom
Daschle and Tim Johnson, is now deep red. So much so, in fact, that John Thune ran
unopposed in 2010. The Democrats are stuck with political neophyte Jay Williams,
who—when he announced his intention to run—explained that he's very
qualified for office because he has a degree in political science.
Our prediction: Williams is going to get crushed, of course. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Mike Lee (R) |
Misty Snow (D) |
Mike Lee is very conservative, which Utahns like just fine—he won each of his
first two Senate elections by 30 points. His Democratic opponent is going to be
Misty Snow, a late entry who—if elected—would become the first
transgender U.S. Senator. While it is true that Salt Lake City has a gay mayor,
that's going to be a bridge too far for rural dwellers and residents of more
socially-conservative cities like Provo and Orem.
Our prediction: Lee is going to win this one in a walk. |
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Russ Feingold (D) |
Ron Johnson won a close election over Russ Feingold in 2010 (51% to 47%) and then served a
fairly lackluster first term. He has particularly been hurt by his highly publicized
confrontation with Hillary Clinton during the congressional hearings on Benghazi, and also
by his propensity to shoot from the hip. Among other impolitic moments, he has suggested
that those who take out student loans are lazy, those who utilize ObamaCare are moochers,
and has referred to American Muslims as "those people." He's also being investigated on an ethics
charge stemming from a $10 million payment he received from his former firm shortly before
becoming a senator. The Wisconsin Democratic Party argues that it's either an illegal corporate
contribution, or that Johnson falsified his financial disclosure forms. Either way, not good. The Senator's opponent is
Feingold, who will attempt to become only the second senator in history to reclaim his
seat in a rematch (the first was Peter Gerry of Rhode Island, who lost his reelection bid
in 1928 but came back to defeat GOP senator Felix Hebert in 1934). Feingold has has some
pretty serious baggage of his own, however. Having made a name as a campaign finance
reformer, he declined most outside funds in 2010. Though perhaps a sincere gesture, this
crippled his campaign and contributed substantially to his defeat. Now, Feingold will
accept that money ($21.6 million, more than any other Senate candidate), which
will be helpful on a practical level but will also open him up to
charges of hypocrisy. In addition, after leaving office, the PAC that Feingold
founded—Progressives United—appears to have spent considerably more money on Feingold's
salary and on buying copies of his book to give out as "gifts" rather than actually
lobbying for progressive causes. And he too is being investigated; the Wisconsin GOP
insists that Feingold began his Senate campaign while serving as U.S. Special Envoy
for the African Great Lakes Region and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. If true,
that would be a no-no. On balance, it looks like Johnson's baggage is more
problematic than Feingold's, because the Democrat started to pull away in the polls.
It's the reverse of the situation in Ohio, but with the same result: Both parties
redirected their money to more competitive races, leaving the underdog
to face the possibility of going it alone. Interestingly, Johnson bounced back
after being cut off, so he might have triumphed, if not for his September-October swoon.
As it is, he's likely out of luck.
Our prediction: Feingold, but in "too close for comfort" fashion. |