Trump's Window for Passing Laws Is Closing

President Donald Trump would dearly love to have notched a couple of legislative victories on his belt before Congress breaks for the summer and has to face constituents with nothing to show them. But the window to get anything done is rapidly closing. His top priority, health care, is a long shot at best. His other priority, tax reform, has zero chance before the Fall, and only slightly better odds before December. Trump's contribution to the health-care bill was to tweet that the Senate should abolish the filibuster, something that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has adamantly ruled out. Besides, if the Republicans in the Senate could put together a bill that could get 50 votes they could pass it under budget-reconciliation rules. Their problem is that there is no bill in sight that could get even 50 votes.

In fact, just doing routine stuff may be an uphill climb. Congress has to raise the debt ceiling before August or the U.S. could default on its debt. A default could trigger a stock-market crash, followed by a recession. No Republican wants that. However, some Republicans are strongly opposed to raising the debt limit, which means Democratic votes may be needed to prevent a default. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is likely to have a small wish list that she'd like granted before providing those votes.

Voting down the debt ceiling is like voting down 5 - 3 = 2. To keep it simple, suppose Congress passes laws spending $4 trillion next year and also passes tax laws raising $3.5 trillion in revenue. Then the Treasury has to borrow $500 billion to make up the shortfall so the government can pay for the $4 trillion worth of stuff Congress has ordered it to buy. Now suppose Congress says the government can only borrow $400 billion. The math doesn't work. The debt limit is cumulative, but the idea is the same: The government has to borrow the difference between what Congress has ordered over the years in spending and what Congress has provided in revenue. There shouldn't be any law about the debt ceiling. If Congress doesn't want the government to borrow any more money, it has to make sure revenue equals or exceeds expenditures.

If Republicans are going to fight with themselves over math, which Congress has been doing for decades on autopilot, getting contentious legislation through both chambers by August is going to be nearly impossible. And to make it worse, Each of the past five presidents has gotten legacy-defining legislation through Congress in his first 7 months. Trump has almost no chance of that. After 7 months, it gets much harder. (V)

Trump Likely to Exit Paris Accord Today

Donald Trump has promised, multiple times, that a decision on the Paris Accord on climate change was coming. But he keeps delaying, because he's painted himself into a real corner. If he stays with the deal, he protects a big part of Barack Obama's legacy, and comes up short on a major, and oft-repeated campaign promise. If he goes, there will be big-time fallout. He's committed to making an official announcement at 3:00 p.m. today. Cross his heart, hope to die—he's really, really, really gonna do it this time. Probably.

Assuming he follows through, and with the obvious caveat that The Donald changes his mind at a moment's notice, all indications are that he will announce a withdrawal from the agreement. White House insiders are saying as much, and in his tweet announcing the 3:00 p.m. press conference, Trump included "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" in all-caps. That doesn't make much sense unless it's a withdrawal.

At this point, Trump's thought processes are familiar enough that we can fairly well guess what factors are decisive in setting his course. To start, he always loves to poke Obama in the eye. Further, Trump has not fulfilled many of his big campaign promises, and may not fulfill many more (see above), so he has to take the low-hanging fruit (e.g., those things that can be achieved without Congress). Finally, he likes misdirection, and undoubtedly believes that this news will push Russia to the backburner for a few days. It likely won't, but hope springs eternal.

If and when Trump makes it official, the backlash will be enormous. Many members of his administration, including Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and First Daughter Ivanka are going to be upset. At least one adviser, Elon Musk, says he will resign. Democrats of all stripes will be furious, and the Party will begin immediate preparations to wield global warming as a torch in 2018 and 2020. Independent and swing voters will be none-too-happy, either. And this will drive yet another wedge between the Trump administration and the nations of the world, particularly those of Europe. "This would be a colossal mistake," said Bush State Department official Nick Burns. "It would also devastate our international credibility."

This last point is one that should give Trump particular pause. Ostensibly, the purpose of withdrawing from the Accord is to reduce regulation, thus allowing job creation and economic growth. But if the Chinas and the Germanys and the Frances of the world decide the U.S. is more trouble than it's worth, and increase their dealings with one another, then it could depress the stock market, wreck the dollar, and reduce job growth. So, Trump could find himself with the worst of both worlds: Aggravating huge swaths of the country and the world, and tanking the economy. That definitely would not help make America great again. (Z)

Trump Is Running a Bake-off for Chief of Staff

Mike Allen of Axios is reporting that chief of staff Reince Priebus is a dead man walking. Trump is consulting his New York friends and some Republicans about whether to replace him with Republican lobbyist David Urban or Chairman of the National Economic Council Gary Cohn. Cohn is not actually interested in the job, but might take it temporarily to humor his boss. What he really wants is to be named chairman of the Federal Reserve next year when Janet Yellen's term expires.

As to poor Reince, he might be sent off far, far away, to Greece, as the U.S. ambassador. His mother is Greek, so he might just accept the job. Besides, the weather there is better than in his current home state of Wisconsin. (V)

Trump Is Having Trouble Hiring Senior Officials

Do you want a job as deputy secretary (the #2 position) in the department of agriculture, education, or veterans affairs, or maybe the EPA? How about the #3 or #4 position in any executive department? Just write a letter to Donald Trump at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave and say you are willing to take the job. You might get it because nobody else is interested. The administration is having a terrible time recruiting top people for the 442 Senate-confirmed positions for which there is not even a nominee. One lawyer who works for three clients who previously had exhibited interest in these jobs said they have all withdrawn. He added: "They're going to have trouble getting A-list or even B-list people to sign up."

Anybody who has visions of a long future in politics is clearly leery of getting entangled in the web of conflicts already closing in on the administration. Plus, Trump loves to publicly insult his own people. Anybody capable of being a deputy secretary could earn ten times as much as an executive in a big company. Finally, although nobody is talking about it, many people are privately thinking about whether a potential President Pence might decide it was a good idea to fire everybody who worked for Trump and put in his own people. (V)

Trump's Approval Ratings Continue to Erode

Donald Trump loves to tweet out his approval ratings when they are good (which, these days, means anything above 49%). Even as he took a beating in most houses' polls, he could always rely on good news from the Rasmussen folks, with their rather pronounced Republican house effect, and sometimes on Fox as well. Maybe not any more, though. As of this week, following the latest round of Russian revelations, he's dropped to a 44% in Rasmussen and a 40% in Fox.

That's the bad news for the President; now, the worse news. The only real way that he can dip down into the low 40s is if he starts to lose his loyal base—nearly everyone else has already jumped ship. And that is what appears to be happening; an increasing percentage of white voters, and voters without a college degree, have begun to disapprove of the President. As noted below, one does not want to overstate the Trump-Nixon connection, but it is worth remembering that Tricky Dick's approval rating held in the high 50s and low 60s until April of 1973. Then, as the Watergate story came into full bloom, it cratered, dropping into the 30s within three months. Has Trump reached his tipping point? We should know fairly soon. (Z)

Why Russiagate Is Not Watergate

The comparisons between Donald Trump's problems with Russia and his attempts to block its investigation bring up memories of Watergate, but a piece in Politico by Nixon biographer John Farrell says "not so fast." Farrell brings up five major differences with Watergate and these could mean that the affair ends quite differently. Here are his main points.

• During Watergate, the Democrats controlled Congress. Democrats despised Tricky Dick Nixon, so when the evidence piled up, they were ready to pull the trigger. Republicans control both chambers of Congress now and are in no mood to damage their own president—unless things get a lot worse than they are now. Nixon was partly to blame for Democratic control of Congress, since in 1972 he ran a campaign independent of congressional Republicans. If Republicans controlled the House, articles of impeachment might never even have been drawn up.
  
  
• The media environment is totally different now. In 1972, there was no Fox News, no Breitbart News, and no conservative media outlets at all. While mainstream newspapers and TV stations may not have loved Nixon, they didn't hate him and certainly didn't believe he was so stupid as to order a "third-rate burglary." Now we have many conservative media outlets that will defend Trump through thick and thin, something that will sustain his popularity with at least 30% of the country. Nixon never had that kind of unconditional support.
  
  
• Congress didn't face a backlash over impeachment. The Democrats came out of Watergate smelling like roses, because the country believed Nixon was a crook, despite his saying that he wasn't. The impeachment of Bill Clinton worked out differently. The Republicans lost seats in the House in 1998 as a result of the impeachment. If Republicans lost seats for impeaching a Democrat, imagine how their voters would react if they impeached a Republican. They know this.
  
  
• A smoking gun showed up at the right time. After months of hearings and public discussion, Nixon was ordered to turn over his tapes. On one of them, Nixon is heard clearly ordering his aide Bob Haldeman to have the CIA block the investigation. That was the straw that broke the camel's back, but it came at the right moment. Trump has already admitted to asking James Comey to back down on investigating Michael Flynn, but 6 months from now that may be "old news."
  
  
• Nixon had many important achievements. This point argues the other way. Nixon wasn't all that unpopular to start with. He went to China, created the EPA, abolished the military draft, signed the Clean Air Act and much more. He had a good track record that both parties respected. Impeaching a popular president that both parties respect was tough. In Trump's case, he has no reservoir of good will. Democrats hate his guts in public and in private. Republicans tolerate him in public and strongly dislike him in private. If push comes to shove, he's not going to be able to say: "But look at all my important achievements in domestic and foreign policy." Besides, Mike Pence is popular with Republicans in and out of Congress.

That all said, in politics, a week is a long time. If a smoking gun appears at some point, the Republicans in Congress may suddenly decide they like the sound of "President Pence" very much. (V)

Republicans Are Already Gunning for Elizabeth Warren

The Republican establishment actually agrees with the progressive base of the Democratic Party on something, probably for the first time ever. Both expect Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) to run for president in 2020, and both give her a good chance of winning the Democratic nomination. While the thought fills the base with joy, it fills the Republicans with dread, so they are already starting to attack her. She is up for reelection in 2018, and they plan to use the campaign as a way to highlight her weaknesses in preparation for 2020. They have no illusions about defeating her in 2018, but if they can damage her enough, they hope she will forego a run in 2020.

The Republicans almost always use the same general strategy: Find one weakness and make the whole campaign about that. Against Hillary Clinton, it was her e-mail server. Before the campaign, only tech geeks knew what an e-mail server was. By the end of it, having your own e-mail server was the worst thing you could have, short of an unguarded stash of nuclear weapons.

One line of attack is that Warren cares only about her national profile and doesn't do anything for Massachusetts. The idea there is to paint her as a greedy and ambitious politician who doesn't care about her constituents.

However, given Donald Trump's success in 2016, another line of attack is to keep calling her "Pocahontas." It is an effective dog whistle to male blue-collar voters. The implication is that she claimed (without proof) that she is 1/32 Native American and due to affirmative action, she landed a good-paying job at Harvard as a "minority." This puts together in one neat package a lot of things male blue-collar workers hate: a white woman getting a job that could have gone to a white man because she claims to be an "Indian." There is no proof either way about Warren's heritage, but she was born in Oklahoma and grew up there and the state is home to 38 officially recognized tribes, so her claim of having one Native American ancestor long ago is plausible. Needless to say, Harvard Law School does not hire professors based on some vague claim to minority status. But by the time the 2018 Senate campaign is over, a lot of people nationwide may well believe that minority status is the only thing Harvard cares about. (V)

CNN Cans Kathy Griffin

Over the weekend, comedian Kathy Griffin—known for her left-leaning political satire—produced some rather graphic video of her holding a knife and a bloody Trump mask, insinuating that she had just cut off his head (image here, if you are interested). It was in enormously poor taste; there are certain things you just don't joke about: Nazis, cancer, orphans, killing the president, etc. There was an outpouring of outrage from both the left and the right, including Trump himself:

Kathy Griffin should be ashamed of herself. My children, especially my 11 year old son, Barron, are having a hard time with this. Sick!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 31, 2017

In view of the response, Griffin has lost some sponsorship deals, and also her highest-profile gig: Hosting CNN's New Year's Eve coverage with Anderson Cooper. Undoubtedly, the two surviving Beatles are breathing a sign of relief that they don't work for CNN.

While nobody is defending Griffin's behavior, the response certainly lays bare the rather obvious double-standard that seems to exist here, among the right-wing media in general, and in the person of Donald Trump in particular. Many will recall that in 2012, rocker Ted Nugent threatened to kill President Obama—this was credible enough that the Secret Service looked into the matter. Nugent was not dismissed by any of the right-wing media outlets to which he contributes (he regularly appears on Fox News, for example). Meanwhile, here was Donald Trump's reaction:

Ted Nugent was obviously using a figure of speech, unfortunate as it was. It just shows the anger people have towards @BarackObama.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 19, 2012

Nugent later threatened to assassinate Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, and proposed that someone should lynch Obama and Hillary Clinton. Trump was apparently not bothered by these remarks, either, inasmuch as he recently hosted Nugent for dinner at the White House. When White House Press Secretary (for now) Sean Spicer was asked about the difference between the actions of Nugent and Griffin, he sputtered and said, "I'd have to look back and see what those statements were and what the reaction was at the time." Probably best to assume that research isn't going to get done anytime soon. (Z)

More Senate Races

Yesterday we had a synopsis of the first dozen Senate seats (by alphabet) that the Democrats have to defend. Today we have the rest of the Democratic seats plus those of the two independents, both of whom caucus with the Democrats. (Z)

New Jersey   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Bob Menendez (D)	(R)	New Jersey hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 1972, so this seat is likely to remain in Democratic hands next year. The question is: Will those hands belong to Bob Menendez? Certainly, he wants to run again, and is already airing commercials and raising money. However, the Senator has been connected to a shady eye doctor named Dr. Salomon Melgen. Melgen is now a convicted felon, and Menendez has been indicted for taking bribes from him. Nothing has been proven yet, but it certainly doesn't look good, even in a state that has a certain tolerance for corruption. The worst case scenario for the Democrats is that the trial lingers, but Menendez refuses to bow out and insists on running with the scandal hanging over his head (along with his worst-in-the-Senate 36% approval rating). That just might open the door for a Republican to eke out a victory. Thus far, none has declared, but the New Jersey GOP bench is fairly deep. Gov. Chris Christie is the most famous name, but he's pretty widely loathed in the Garden State these days. More probable are Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno and Rep. Tom MacArthur.

New Mexico

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Martin Heinrich (D)	(R)	Martin Heinrich is only moderately popular in his home state, but New Mexico's blueward trend works in his favor. So too does the fact that the New Mexico governor's mansion will be vacant, making this yet another state where that may prove a more attractive alternative than taking on a sitting U.S. Senator. Term-limited Gov. Susana Martinez (R) may choose to challenge Heinrich, and if she does, she could make it interesting. At the moment, however, his only opponent is businessman Mick Rich, an unknown with no political experience. So, the seat is safe for now, and likely leans Democrat even if Martinez does enter the race.

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	(R)	Donald Trump is not popular in his very blue home state, and Gillibrand has been a leader of the anti-Trump forces in Congress, giving her national stature. Though New York is very populous, the GOP bench is pretty thin, and few Republicans want to submit their career to the Gillibrand buzz saw. In the state's last two Senate elections, Wendy Long was the GOP's sacrificial lamb; She lost to Gillibrand by 53 points in 2012, and to Sen. Chuck Schumer by 43 points in 2016. Whether Long returns for a third serving of humble pie or not, this one is about as safe as it gets for the Democrats.

North Dakota   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Heidi Heitkamp (D)	(R)	There's no question that North Dakota is Trump territory—he won the state by 36 points. Further, Heitkamp is the only Democrat serving North Dakota at the state or federal levels, and her first victory—aided by the coattails of Barack Obama—was very thin, 50.5% to 49.5%. So, she certainly has her work cut out for her. That said, the Senator knows how to win in the Roughrider State: Essentially, pretend you're not a Democrat. After all, the official name of the state party is the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party. Heitkamp has pointedly refused to "join" the Trump opposition, and has given her vote to as many of his cabinet nominees as any Democratic senator, while also supporting many of his regulation rollbacks. The GOP is hoping that Rep. Kevin Cramer agrees to challenge Heitkamp, but he seems to prefer remaining in his safe Congressional seat. If he doesn't run, then the GOP candidate will likely be a retread, possibly Rick Becker (who lost the governor's race in 2016) or Rick Berg (who lost to Heitkamp in 2012). If Cramer enters the race, then it's a toss up; anyone else and Heitkamp's the favorite to keep her job.

Ohio   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Sherrod Brown (D)	(R)	Democrats are watching this one carefully, not only because it's a battleground state, but because Sherrod Brown might provide a template for how the party can win in the Midwest going forward. He's a liberal, but one with strong populist leanings. He laments trade agreements, for example, and is strongly pro-union. At the same time, Brown disdains the divisiveness of Donald Trump, declaring that you have to be for all the "little guys" or for none of them. He's also been critical of many Trump appointments, remarking that the White House "looks like a retreat for Goldman Sachs executives," and has insisted that the financial sector must be reined in. Because Brown has played his hand so well, Ohio is another state where the GOP is having trouble recruiting top-notch talent. Thus far, the only declared candidate is State Treasurer Josh Mandel, and many other high-profile options have either opted out (Rep. Pat Tibieri) or decided to shoot for the governorship (Rep. Jim Renacci). Term-limited Gov. John Kasich would certainly give Brown a run for his money, but he's insisting his political career is over, and is more likely to run for president again if it's really not.

Pennsylvania   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Bob Casey (D)	(R)	Casey has made an interesting choice, given that he comes from a state won by Donald Trump: He's rapidly evolved from a quiet moderate to an outspoken member of the resistance. It's probably a wise call; Trump won the Keystone State by the barest of margins, and Casey is counting on Democratic enthusiasm to carry the day next November. Working to his advantage, given how expensive it is to campaign in Pennsylvania, is that he's doing very well in the fundraising department—his $6.6 million trails only five of his colleagues. Also in his favor, odd as it may seem, is that Republicans are lining up in droves to challenge him. State Reps. Jim Christiana and Rick Saccone are already in, as are businessman Jeff Bartos and Berwick Councilman Andrew Shecktor, while state Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman and U.S. Reps. Mike Kelly, Lou Barletta, and Tom Marino are giving a run serious consideration. The odds are good that the Republicans will bloody one another, and drain each other's bank accounts, while Casey watches from the sidelines. This race may not be a slam dunk for the Democrats, but it's still pretty safe.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)	(R)	Rhode Island is one of the bluest states in the country, with a grand total of zero Republicans holding office at the state and federal levels. Whitehouse won his last Senate race by 30 points. So, there's not much drama here. State Rep. Robert Nardolillo has volunteered himself as Whitehouse's victim, er...opponent. Thus far, no other Republicans have signaled an interest in joining him.

Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tim Kaine (D)	(R)	Kaine has solid approval numbers (53% approve; 25% disapprove), and comes from the only Southern state to go for Hillary Clinton. He's been raking in the money (nearly $8 million so far); that, and the high stature that comes from his VP run means that he's in great position to be elected to a second Senate term. A long list of Republicans, from tea partier Rep. Dave Brat, to talk show host Laura Ingraham, to former HP Executive Carly "I'll Run in Any State in the Union" Fiorina, have signaled interest in challenging Kaine. They will undoubtedly be given pause by the fact that early polls have the Senator trouncing any of them by 20-plus points. The most serious threat would probably be popular Rep. Barbara Comstock (R), but she's currently keeping things close to the vest.

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Maria Cantwell (D)	(R)	Cantwell is an outspoken opponent of Donald Trump, and has hewed to a Bernie Sanders-style party line, including a $15 minimum wage, aggressive protections for the environment, and healthcare for all. All of this makes her very popular in Washington, and an overwhelming favorite to be elected to a fourth term. While there are some heavy-hitting Republican politicians in the Evergreen State, most notably Reps. Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Jaime Herrera Beutler, none of them has given the slightest indication that they want to die on this particular hill. Cantwell won her last Senate race by 20 points, the one before that by 26, and given the apparent lack of opposition, figures to improve on those numbers in 2018.

West Virginia   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Joe Manchin (D)	(R)	West Virginia went for Donald Trump by a remarkable 42 points, which leaves Joe Manchin dead in the water, right? Not so much. Manchin has won five statewide elections, most of them in landslides. In 2004, for example, he was elected governor by 30 points and he won his last Senate election by 24 points. He's also one of the 10 most popular members of the Senate, with a 66% approval rating. The upshot is that he knows how to keep his constituents happy, joining with the Democrats on some issues (pro-labor, pro-Obamacare) and jumping ship on others (pro-coal, pro-life, pro-gun). He's going to get a challenge from the left, in the form of environmentalist Paula Jean Swearengin, who is apparently unaware that West Virginia's economy is based on coal. Manchin will defeat her with ease, and then will tangle with a serious Republican challenger, possibly Rep. Evan Jenkins. West Virginia is being rated by most as a battleground state because of its deep redness, but that raises an obvious question: What has changed since Manchin won those five elections? The answer is: Not much, as the Mountain State has been very red for Manchin's entire career. So, this is probably not the pickup opportunity that many Republicans are hoping it is.

Wisconsin   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tammy Baldwin (D)	(R)	Given Baldwin's middling approval ratings (45%) and Wisconsin's redward trend, the national GOP sees Wisconsin as one of their best pickup opportunities. To that end, various super PACs are already airing ads blasting the Senator for her support for the Iran deal, for her failure to cure Wisconsin's opioid crisis, and for being part of the "establishment." That's the bad news for Baldwin, now the good news. Her fundraising is brisk ($6 million so far), and the DSCC has made clear that she will be a major focus for their efforts. Further, the GOP's most attractive challenger, Rep. Sean Duffy, has already opted out. Baldwin will still draw a serious Republican foe, possibly Rep. Mike Gallagher or Rep. Glenn Grothman, or maybe Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, but none has the name recognition of Duffy (who is, like the President, a one-time reality TV star). This will be a tough fight for the Wisconsin senator, but she's still the clear favorite.

Independent-held seats

Maine

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Angus King (I)	(R)	King is very popular in Maine and, as an independent, can reasonably expect to get both Democratic and Republican votes. Of course, that means he can also reasonably expect to face both a Democratic and Republican challenger, all the way to the bitter end. Thus far, the only Democrat is Diane Russell, a one-time state representative. She's no real threat; since King caucuses with the Democrats, he will have the Party's de facto endorsement. His biggest challenges have always come from the right side of the aisle. On that front, however, King got good news when Gov. Paul LePage decided not to run. That leaves only State Senator Eric Brakey, who has limited name recognition statewide. Assuming that stronger challengers do not present themselves, which does not seem likely, King will get his second term.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Bernie Sanders (I)	(R)	Bernie Sanders is the single most popular senator in America, with a staggering 83% approval rating. As a leader of the Trump resistance, he's a great match for a state that gave 70% of its votes to non-Trump candidates. Given that he's a Democrat in all but name, he may not draw a challenger from that direction. And the Republicans are probably only going to be able to come up with a perennial candidate, like Scott Milne, who ran for governor in 2014 and for the Senate in 2016. Oh, and if the Bern needs cash, all he needs to do is shake the donor money tree he built in 2016. This one is about as certain as it gets.

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---The Votemaster and Zenger