Strongly Dem (45)
Likely Dem (0)
Barely Dem (2)
Exactly tied (1)
Barely GOP (2)
Likely GOP (4)
Strongly GOP (46)
No Senate race

New polls:

Dem pickups : IL

GOP pickups : (None)

Here is a compact table listing all of the Senate candidates.

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the two independents as Democrats):

10 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2016 and 36 seats not up, for a total of 46 seats
24 Republican seats up for reelection in 2016 and 30 seats not up, for a total of 54 seats

In a reversal from 2014, the Democrats will be playing offense, trying to pick up at least five seats (or four seats and the vice-presidency) in order to reclaim control of the Senate. As they do so, there are several pieces of good news for them:

The party has had enormous success this year in recruiting top candidates, not only in states where the Democrats' chances are excellent, but also in states where their chances are only middling. By contrast, outside of Nevada, the Republicans have struck out with their preferred candidates.
There is only one Democratic-held seat that is presently in play (Nevada). In contrast, at least eight Republican seats are in significant danger (Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Florida, in roughly that order).
Presidential election years favor the Democrats, as they bring more minorities, young people, and single women to the polls.

The news is not all bad for the Republicans, however:

The 2016 election is not a mirror image of 2014. In that election, the Democrats' "in play" seats were in very red states like Alaska and Montana. This year, the Republicans' "in play" seats are largely in purple or light blue states like Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, and North Carolina. In other words, the Republicans have an easier position to defend in 2016 than the Democrats did in 2014.
Even if they lose control of the Senate next year, the 2018 map will once again favor the Republicans, as the Democrats will be defending 23 seats in a non-presidential year, including those in the red (or reddish) states of Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Should they wish to secure control of the Senate until the next presidential election, the Democrats will likely need a net gain of eight or nine seats this year—a very tall order.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republican ones following.

Click on a picture for the candidate's webpage.
Click on a name for the candidate's entry in Wikipedia.
Click on a party (D) or (R) for the state party.

The indicates a race to watch.

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Democratic-held seats

California

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Kamala Harris (D)	Loretta Sanchez (D)	Barbara Boxer is retiring, and it's a two-woman race to be the Democrat that succeeds her. California Attorney General Kamala Harris is the first person of African or Asian descent to occupy that office (her father is Jamaican and her mother is Indian). She thus has ties to two constituencies that play an important role in California politics (7% of the population and 13%, respectively). Harris is also well connected to power brokers within the Democratic Party, who see her as a rising star and a possible presidential candidate in 2020 or 2024. She has the endorsements of President Obama, California governor Jerry Brown, the California Democratic Party, and Boxer herself, among others. The alternative is nine-term representative Loretta Sanchez, who presents a fairly striking contrast to Harris. A former Republican who hails from a conservative district in Southern California, Sanchez is a leading Blue Dog (conservative) Democrat with strong ties to the Latino community. California's jungle primary system means that Sanchez and Harris will face one another in November, despite being from the same party, because they were the top two finishers in the state's June primary. Harris stumbled early in the campaign, burning through several managers, but she's out-fundraised Sanchez by a vast margin ($14.5 million to $4.5 million). Sanchez, meanwhile, has a somewhat lackadaisical record as a Representative (she's missed more votes than any other member of California's Congressional delegation) and is running an underwhelming campaign. Several unforced errors, such as accusing Obama of being a racist when he endorsed Harris, have Democratic insiders making liberal use of phrases like "train wreck." Sanchez's only hope is that a lot of Latino voters show up to the polls and a lot of Republicans vote for her to stop the more liberal Harris from winning. The latter scenario is not looking likely; many GOP voters say they will just leave that part of the ballot blank. Our prediction: Harris, in a rout

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Michael Bennet (D)	Darryl Glenn (R)	Support for Michael Bennet is tepid in Colorado, and given that the state is purplish with a strong libertarian bent, Republicans see this as their second-best opportunity (behind Nevada) to take a Democratic-held seat in 2016. That assessment may technically be accurate, but "second-best chance" does not necessarily mean "good chance." To start, Bennet is the former head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and a prodigious fundraiser—he has raised more money this cycle ($12.8 million) than all but five of his Senate colleagues. Further, the Republican side of the contest was a bloodbath, with no less than 14 candidates scrapping with one another for the nomination. Darryl Glenn eventually emerged triumphant, but the Air Force veteran, Trump supporter, and staunch conservative is a very bad match for this purplish state, and he's raised only $3.6 million. The Kochs, who spent big money in Colorado in 2014, announced they were sitting this one out, and the GOP largely abandoned Glenn to the wolves, so they can focus on playing defense elsewhere. Our prediction: Bennet is safe

Connecticut

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Richard Blumenthal (D)	Dan Carter (R)	Richard Blumenthal kept his head down and his nose clean during his first six years in the Senate and now wants a second term, which he will get. A very blue state, Connecticut has no statewide officeholders who are Republican and has not sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate since the 1980s. Wrestling magnate Linda McMahon was the GOP candidate in the last two elections; this time, the party will turn to State Rep. Dan Carter. He has actual political experience, unlike McMahon, but his chances of getting elected won't be much better than hers were. Carter tried to make hay of an old controversy: Blumenthal's saying he served "in Vietnam," when the truth is that he served in the Marine Corps reserve during the Vietnam era, but never actually left the United States. The issue did not harm the Connecticut Senator six years ago, and it's not going to have an impact now. Our prediction: Blumenthal by 20

Hawaii

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Brian Schatz (D)	John Carroll (R)	Hawaii is the bluest state in the Union. When Brian Schatz ran in the 2014 special election to succeed deceased Senator Daniel Inouye, he beat his Republican opponent by 40 points (President Obama did even better in 2012, winning the state by 46). Hawaii has not given its electoral votes to the GOP since the Reagan landslide of 1984, and has only ever elected one Republican to the U.S. Senate (Hiram Fong, who served from 1959 to 1976). This year, the Republican Party will field pilot, lawyer, and perennial candidate John Carroll. He's 86 years old, has gone 0-for-6 in his previous bids for office, has raised $54,000, and has not updated his campaign website since 2012 (when he last ran for the Senate). Our prediction: Schatz, in the biggest landslide of the night

Maryland

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Chris Van Hollen (D)	Kathy Szeliga (R)	Popular senator Barbara Mikulski is retiring after five terms. While Marylanders sometimes elect Republicans to statewide office (e.g., Gov. Larry Hogan in 2014), they turn deep blue when voting for senators. Mikulski won by 25 points in 2010, and her junior counterpart Benjamin Cardin won by 30 in 2012. The drama, then, was in the Democratic primary. Emerging victorious after a brutal, racially-polarized contest was seven-term representative Chris Van Hollen, who managed to comfortably outpoll Rep. Donna Edwards. Born in Pakistan to an officer of the U.S. Foreign Service, he has won much praise for his expertise in foreign affairs and budgetary matters. In the general election, he is facing Maryland House Minority Whip Kathy Szeliga, who he has already attacked for raising money for Citizens United, and also for being pro-Trump. Neither of these things pleases Marylanders; Trump is so unpopular in the state that even Hogan says he won't vote for him. Van Hollen has also out-fundraised Szeliga by a margin of 10-to-1. She's trying to fight back by pointing out Van Hollen's lack of private sector experience, but the criticism has not moved the needle. Our prediction: Van Hollen, in another landslide

Nevada

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)	Joe Heck (R)	Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring after five terms—perhaps because of age, perhaps because of a recent injury that left him blind in one eye, perhaps because he is tired of tough reelection campaigns. The most likely explanation, however, is that he beat nondescript, gaffe-prone tea partier Sharron Angle by only 6 points in 2010 and might well lose to a more serious candidate in 2016. Whatever the case may be, Reid will yield the Democratic mantle to his handpicked successor, Catherine Cortez Masto, who served eight years as Attorney General of Nevada before being term limited. If elected, she would be the first Latina to serve in the U.S. Senate (though she could theoretically end up sharing that honor with Loretta Sanchez). Enjoying wide name recognition across the state, Masto will have the considerable financial and logistical resources of Reid's political network at her disposal. The Republican candidate will be two-term representative Joe Heck, who surprised and delighted the party establishment when he decided to run. A physician and brigadier general in the U.S. Army Reserve, Heck is an excellent campaigner and fundraiser who gives the Republicans far and away their best chance to capture a Democratic-held Senate seat in 2016. In Nevada's primary, Heck easily brushed aside a challenge from Angle, who unwisely decided she would return for another bite at the apple. This has been a very close race, millions of dollars have poured in from outside of Nevada (about $13 million on each side), and the airwaves in Nevada are absolutely chock-full of nasty commercials. The Koch brothers are targeting the state for some of the money that they won't be spending on the presidential contest, and Sheldon Adelson is using his shiny new toy, The Las Vegas Review-Journal, to promote Heck's campaign. The deciding factor could well be how many of the state's 780,000 Latinos and 234,000 Asians go to the polling place on Election Day; early voting tallies are promising for the Democrats. Our prediction: A very tough state to poll, for various reasons, but Cortez Masto

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Chuck Schumer (D)	Wendy Long (R)	New York is a very blue state and Chuck Schumer is popular, has $27.5 million in the bank (twice as much as any other 2016 Senate candidate), and knows how to make use of the advantages of incumbency. He is also an aggressive self-promoter. As Bob Dole once observed, "The most dangerous place in Washington is between Chuck Schumer and a camera." (This infinitely recyclable joke was originally told about Theodore Roosevelt more than a century ago). Schumer won his last election by 33 points, and the one before that by nearly 50. His opponent will be lawyer Wendy Long, a political novice whose main claim to fame is losing the 2012 Senate race to Kristen Gillibrand by 43 points. There's nothing to see here, then, unless you happen to like carnage. Our prediction: Schumer, in a rout. He will then take over for Harry Reid as leader of the Senate Democrats.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ron Wyden (D)	Mark Callahan (R)	A cancer scare had Ron Wyden considering retirement, but he's healthy now and gunning for a fifth term. He is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, and that suits deep-blue Oregon just fine; voters have bestowed an average margin of victory of 30 points upon him in his three previous reelection campaigns. Meanwhile, there is no Republican bench in the state. The only member of the GOP currently representing Oregon at either the state or federal levels is Rep. Greg Walden, and he is content to keep his very safe seat in the House. Therefore, the red team is left with IT consultant Mark Callahan, whose hobby is running for political office (including a "campaign" for president in 2012). It would be hard to come up with a worse candidate, since Callahan has a bankruptcy and a messy divorce in his past, and has switched from Green to Democrat to Republican depending on the election he was contesting. He's also raised $31,000 to Wyden's $8.3 million. Moving on. Our prediction: Wyden can start his victory party early.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Patrick Leahy (D)	Scott Milne (R)	Patrick Leahy is, interestingly, the only Democrat ever elected to the U.S. Senate from the state of Vermont. That unexpected quirk is a byproduct of his extremely long term of service, coupled with the fact that his junior colleague Bernie Sanders is so far left that he runs as a Democratic Socialist. When Leahy began his career in the 1970s, Vermont was reddish-purple, and he had to contend with difficult campaigns and close elections. However, he has not had to break a sweat since the last time a Clinton tried to move into the White House—1992—when he won by "only" 10 points. Vermont was in the process of turning very blue then, and Leahy has won every election since by at least 35 points. Now the Dean of the Senate, he will easily win an eighth term, putting him within striking distance of Robert Byrd's record nine terms and 51 years in the Senate. His sacrificial lamb...er, challenger...will be Scott Milne, a travel agent and political novice who presently has the princely sum of $83 in the bank. Milne ran for the governorship of Vermont in 2014, and even kept the race close, but he won't do the same this time. Our prediction: Leahy, by 30 or so.

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Patty Murray (D)	Chris Vance (R)	Patty Murray was nearly toppled by the Republican wave in 2010, winning her fourth term by less than 4 points. Her position is stronger now; she played a leading role in averting a government shutdown in 2013, and this cycle she has raised an impressive $9.8 million for her campaign. Her opponent is former State Rep. Chris Vance, who served one term in the early 1990s, has also been chair of the Washington Republican Party, and has raised a considerably less impressive $427,000. He's no threat. Our prediction: Murray, who will improve on her 2010 result by about 10 points.

Republican-held seats

Alabama

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Richard Shelby (R)	Ron Crumpton (D)	The last time Alabama sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was in 1994, when they elected...Richard Shelby. Then a Dixiecrat who was finishing his first term, he promptly changed parties after the election and became part of the "Contract with America" Republican wave. In the two decades since, Alabama has gone from being light red (+6 for Bush in 1992 and for Dole in 1996) to deep red (+22 for Romney), and Shelby has consistently won by a 2-to-1 margin when up for reelection. No Democrat stands a chance against him in 2016. Consequently, the best the Party could come up with is political novice and marijuana activist Ron Crumpton, who—appropriately enough—appears to be stoned in every picture he's ever posed for. This is not going to play well in socially-conservative Alabama, as indicated by the fact that Shelby has $9.8 million on hand, while Crumpton has $3,910 (most of which is presumably earmarked for snacks). Our prediction: Crumpton's dream of going to the U.S. Senate will go up in smoke.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Lisa Murkowski (R)	Ray Metcalfe (D)	During her first full term in the Senate, Lisa Murkowski was a reliable "Main Street" (moderate) Republican. Her reward for this, when she ran for reelection in 2010, was to be primaried by tea partier Joe Miller. Murkowski countered by running as an independent, becoming only the second person to win a regular U.S. Senate election as a write-in candidate (the first was Strom Thurmond, and he did it with a name that is much easier to spell). In her second term, Murkowski has moved in a centrist direction, presumably an acknowledgment that the far right of the political spectrum is a lost cause. She is currently the most popular politician in Alaska (sorry, Sarah Palin!) and has more than $2.4 million on hand—a veritable fortune in Alaska, where men are men and advertising is cheap. Murkowski drew a trio of opponents. The Democrat is Ray Metcalfe, a former state legislator and vocal Bernie Sanders supporter whose progressive views are out-of-step with Alaska voters. He is currently, and openly, at war with the Alaska Democratic Party. Considerably more viable is retired U.S. Army colonel Margaret Stock, who is running as an independent. A Harvard-educated immigration attorney and former law professor, she is also recipient of a MacArthur Foundation "genius" grant. In addition to immigration, she is a specialist in national security issues, and she regularly consults for the U.S. Army. There is also Miller, who is still beloved by tea partiers, and who swooped in to claim the Libertarian nomination when Cean Stevens dropped out of the race. Given Alaska's relatively small population, the anti-Murkowski forces might have given the Senator a run for her money, if they had coalesced around one candidate (with Stock the most logical option). They did not. Our prediction: Murkowski by 25.

Arizona

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John McCain (R)	Ann Kirkpatrick (D)	As he tries for a sixth term, John McCain has the advantages of near-universal name recognition, $5 million in the bank with a prodigious ability to raise more, and status as a war hero for everyone except Donald Trump. In solidly red Arizona, his margin of victory in his five previous Senate contests has never been less than 24 points. However, this cycle gave the 2008 GOP presidential nominee the fight of his life. To start, he drew a formidable opponent in popular Democratic representative Ann Kirkpatrick. She was unopposed in the primaries, and so was able to sit on the sidelines and watch while McCain had to grapple with tea partier Kelli Ward. On top of that, the Senator was hit by scandal, as one of his lead fundraisers (Emily Pitha) was arrested for running a meth lab. And if the triple play of Kirkpatrick, Ward, and Pitha were not enough, there's also The Donald. Put briefly, McCain will need votes from Arizonans who support Trump. And he will need votes from Arizonans who hate Trump. He thus performed a perilous high-wire act, trying to embrace Trumpism, but not to embrace it too enthusiastically. McCain is also doing a delicate dance on increasing the minimum wage, which Kirkpatrick and 75% of Arizona voters support, but much of the Senator's base bitterly opposes. And finally, the cherry on top of McCain's sundae full of trouble is that he will be 80 on Election Day, has a lengthy history of nagging health problems, and has publicly acknowledged that he's running out of steam. Given all of these liabilities, Kirkpatrick gave the Senator a serious run for his money, and nearly pulled even in the polls in mid-September. However, you don't get to be a five-term senator without having a few tricks up your sleeve, and McCain has managed to re-assert himself as the dean of Arizona politics. Our prediction: McCain, but by the narrowest margin of his career.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John Boozman (R)	Conner Eldridge (D)	John Boozman won his first Senate contest by 21 points, one of the many Republican successes in the 2010 midterm elections. As time passes, however, this victory is seeming more and more like it came despite Boozman, rather than because of him. He has proven to be a poor fundraiser and an unpopular senator, with a mediocre 34% approval rating. He has also had health problems, including emergency bypass surgery in 2014. These things being the case, he is more vulnerable than most Southern Republicans. The Democratic establishment tried to recruit a strong opponent, such as former governor Mike Beebe, but ultimately ended up with federal prosecutor Conner Eldridge. Eldridge tried hard to use Donald Trump as an anchor around Boozman's neck, and also to make hay out of Boozman's unwillingness to debate. Unfortunately for him, it didn't work. Bill Clinton's coattails might have rescued Eldridge, but there's no chance that Hillary's will. Our prediction: Boozman by 15.

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Marco Rubio (R)	Patrick Murphy (D)	As we learned in 2000, Florida is a large state with many different constituencies, and is fairly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. These facts set the stage for a battle royale that will end up as one of the most expensive Senate races in U.S. history. On the Democratic side it is Patrick Murphy, a moderate (and a former Republican) who easily defeated outspoken lefty Alan Grayson in the Democratic primary. He has the backing of the Democratic establishment, and raised more than $14.5 million. On the Republican side, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) declared that he was retiring. Then, just days before the filing deadline, he decided he wasn't. Most of his competition promptly cleared out, and the remainder were easily dispatched in the primary. Rubio has the advantages of name recognition, and support among much of Florida's Latino community. However, this race is likely to be decided by liabilities, as in: whose end up doing less damage. Murphy's problems include the fact that he's got limited business and political experience, he exaggerated on his resume, his grandfather has done some politically embarrassing things (like do business with Donald Trump), and he comes off as kind of goofy (having been given the nickname "Party Boy Patrick"). As to Rubio, Floridians know of his disdain for the Senate and his poor attendance record, and they handed him a pretty stinging rebuke in the presidential contest. Further, the Senator refuses to promise that he will finish his second term, making it very clear that his real goal is to mount a second presidential run, and not to be an advocate for Floridians. On top of that, the midterm electorate that sent Rubio to Washington the first time is rather different than the electorate he'll face on Election Day. Despite these problems, Rubio has led in the polls consistently since he got back into the race, but the race has gotten tighter and tighter. Still, Murphy's rise probably began just a bit too late. Our prediction: Rubio in a squeaker, put over the top by the Latino vote, and a Koch brothers-funded ground game.

Georgia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Johnny Isakson (R)	Jim Barksdale (D)	Johnny Isakson is popular in Georgia, having won his first two Senate races by 18 and 19 points, respectively. He loves Jesus and hates taxes, gay marriage, abortion, and Obamacare, so he's not vulnerable to a challenge from the right. In June of 2015, he revealed that he has been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease, but thus far the news has not affected his reelection plans. The Democratic candidate is Jim Barksdale, an investment manager and political novice. Normally, someone with that resume would be cannon fodder, but Barksdale ran a very effective Bernie Sanders-style outsider campaign, promising to take on the banks and the Washington insiders. Like Sanders, he even makes fun of his own fashion sense, and sells Barksdale flat caps on his website. Unlike Sanders, however, he was able to write his campaign a check for $3 million. He won an easy victory in the primaries, and it seemed like he might make a campaign of it, with the first Barksdale-Isakson poll giving the Senator only a 12-point lead. The problem for the challenger is that the polls have been stuck there ever since. Georgia is trending purple, but not quickly enough to send a Democrat to the Senate in 2016. Our prediction: Isakson by 10.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mike Crapo (R)	Jerry Sturgill (D)	Mike Crapo was bracing for a possible primary challenge from Rep. Raul Labrador, but Labrador decided to remain in the House. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Idaho is like the Loch Ness monster—rumored to exist, but actual evidence is scarce. They have not managed to get a senator elected since the 1970s, and that streak will continue in 2016. The only Democratic candidate to declare before the filing deadline was Jerry Sturgill, a lawyer and investment banker who is a political unknown. The only real question in this race is whether Crapo will improve upon the 71% of the vote he received in 2010. Our prediction: Idaho will be the red version of Hawaii.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Kirk (R)	Tammy Duckworth (D)	Mark Kirk was a very moderate representative, and for the past six years he's been a very moderate senator. Unfortunately for him, "moderate Republican" was barely viable in the Republican wave of 2010 (Kirk won his seat by less than 2 points), and in presidential years Illinois turns very blue. The Senator's tendency to put his foot in his mouth is not helpful, either. In just the last year, he has had to apologize for characterizing bachelor Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) as "a bro without hos," for describing black communities as "the one(s) we drive faster through," and for accusing President Obama of trying to "get nukes to Iran." He really blew it, though, in the Senatorial debate, when he snidely mocked his opponent's family's military record. Not only is Tammy Duckworth herself a military hero, having lost both legs while serving as a helicopter pilot during the Iraq War, but her family has answered the call of duty all the way back to the days of the Revolution. A charismatic two-term representative, Duckworth is the first disabled woman ever elected to the House, and the first Asian American to be elected to Congress from Illinois (she's Thai). Though she has no statewide experience, She passed her first test with flying colors, crushing Chicago Urban League President and CEO Andrea Zopp in the primaries. Kirk, for his part, is something of a man without a party, since he has consistently lambasted Donald Trump, and was in turn abandoned by the GOP, who decided their money would better be spent in cheaper states, and on candidates with a better chance of winning. Our prediction: Duckworth is easily going to be elected Illinois' new junior senator.

Indiana

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Todd Young (R)	Evan Bayh (D)	Indiana is a fairly red state, but the retirement of Sen. Dan Coats has put this seat into play. On the Republican side of the contest, the candidate is three-term representative Todd Young, who fended off a challenge from tea partier Marlin Stutzman. Young is a Naval Academy graduate, a former marine, a stellar campaigner and fundraiser, and he has enjoyed the strong support of the GOP establishment, particularly Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). The conservative super PAC Senate Leadership Fund allocated $4 million to pro-Young advertising, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce chipped in $1 million, and the Koch Brothers also gave several million. The Democrats thought their candidate was going to be former five-term representative Baron Hill, but on July 11 he unexpectedly dropped out of the race. Fortunately for the blue team, Hill was replaced by former Indiana Secretary of State, two-term governor and two-term senator Evan Bayh, the son of former three-term senator Birch Bayh. Needless to say, the Bayh name is exceedingly well known in Indiana, while Young has limited name recognition. Plus, Bayh had $9.3 million in the bank left over from his previous time as senator. What seemed like a moderately easy hold for the Republicans became a hotly contested race. George W. Bush has lead the campaigning for Young, though whether or not that will help is anyone's guess. The campaign has also, to nobody's surprise, taken on a very nasty edge. Young has called Bayh a carpetbagger and a part of the "Washington establishment," Bayh has slammed Young's record on Social Security and his support for Donald Trump. Hoosiers are being bombarded by negative commercials on both sides. Our prediction: Tossup. Indiana is one of the hardest states to poll, and so this one is just too tough to call until the votes are counted.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Chuck Grassley (R)	Patty Judge (D)	Chuck Grassley is now 83 years old and briefly considered retirement before committing to run for his seventh term. He is very popular in Iowa, thanks in particular to his success in bringing home the pork (in a state that loves pigs), and to his custom of holding a public meeting with constituents in each of Iowa's 99 counties every year. Though the state has been trending blue, particularly in presidential years, Grassley has been impervious to such forces. In 1992, for example, Bill Clinton won Iowa by 5 points and Grassley still beat his Democratic opponent by 42. However, thanks to his chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he became the poster child for the GOP's controversial choice to delay consideration of a possible replacement for Antonin Scalia. This caused a serious Democratic challenger to enter the race—her name, appropriately enough, is Patty Judge. Having served as Iowa's Secretary of Agriculture and Lieutenant Governor, she has name recognition and a political network. Unfortunately for Judge, the SCOTUS issue faded from view, and so Grassley hasn't been harmed by his role in the saga. Our prediction: Judge is going to be gaveled out of politics in a landslide.

Kansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jerry Moran (R)	Patrick Wiesner (D)	Kansas was staunchly Republican when the GOP was the more liberal party, and remained so as it became the more conservative party. The last time the state's voters sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate, they also gave their electoral votes to an upstart governor from New York who promised a "New Deal" for Americans. In other words, Jerry Moran does not need to be worried about the Democrats, and as a proud member of the Tea Party Caucus, his right flank is also safe. A pair of Democrats decided at the last minute to run; lawyer, accountant, and political unknown Patrick Wiesner won the opportunity to lose to Moran, who will hold this seat for as long as he wants it. Our prediction: One poll has Moran up by 64; that's not impossible.

Kentucky

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Rand Paul (R)	Jim Gray (D)	Kentucky has a reputation for being a solidly red state, but that's largely at the federal level. In state elections, Kentuckians often lean fairly Democratic (though that did not hold true in 2015). Rand Paul—who is only moderately popular—is vulnerable to a serious Democratic challenge, and he got one from Lexington Mayor Jim Gray. Gray is wealthy (and so can self-fund), has a reputation for being a "straight shooter," has a small business background, and is openly gay. He thus has something of a maverick persona that actually plays quite well in the Bluegrass State. Paul has some weaknesses; his strongly libertarian views are out of the Republican mainstream, and Kentuckians are not thrilled that he used them as his "insurance policy" against a failed presidential run. However, Gray never quite got enough traction. Our prediction: Paul by 15.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate Unknown (R)	Candidate Unknown (D)	This race is currently up in the air. After being defeated in Lousiana's gubernatorial election, amidst a series of debilitating scandals, incumbent Sen. David Vitter announced his retirement. And the state's other nationally-prominent Republican, Bobby Jindal, is even more unpopular. That has cleared a path for Reps. John Fleming and Charles Boustany, former Rep. Joseph Cao, and State Treasurer John N. Kennedy to enter the race. It's turned into a good old-fashioned, down and dirty, Bayou-style campaign: A new book claims Boustany regularly utilized the services of prostitutes, who later turned up dead. Boustany denies the charges, quite plausibly, and says Fleming's campaign is behind the book. Fleming's campaign insists they had nothing to do with it, and that they have no idea who stole the plot of The Godfather, Part II. Fleming is also the current fundraising champion, with just shy of $2.5 million in the till, though polls actually favor State Treasurer John N. Kennedy. There are five other Republicans, including former KKK Grand Wizard David Duke (who spent much of his time at the Senatorial debate railing against Jews), but they are non-factors. Given the weakened state of the Louisiana GOP, as well as the fact that 2016 is a presidential year, this could have been an excellent pickup opportunity for the Democrats. However, they have struggled to find a top-flight candidate. Ultimately, a grand total of eight Democrats declared; the most interesting is Gary Landrieu. As a first cousin of the dynastic Landrieu family, his last name has magic powers in the Bayou State. However, he's not one of the stars of the family; Moon, Mitch, and Mary all opted out. In other words, we're talking Patrick Kennedy here, not John or Bobby or Teddy. There is no primary in Louisiana; all declared candidates will appear on the general election ballot. If the Democrats can somehow coalesce around Landrieu, it's possible that he could monopolize the Democratic vote and come out ahead if the Republican vote splits two or three or four ways. He would still have to survive a December 10 runoff if he did not collect at least 50% of the vote, a runoff that would get national attention (and tens of millions of dollars) if control of the Senate hangs in the balance. Our prediction: Whatever happens, we won't know who Louisiana's new U.S. Senator is until December.

Missouri

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Roy Blunt (R)	Jason Kander (D)	Roy Blunt is an incumbent, represents a red state, and—though a moderate—was able to avoid a serious challenge from the right this year thanks to the Todd Akin "legitimate rape" fiasco in 2014. That is the good news for the Senator. The bad news? His approval ratings are among the worst in Congress, with considerably more than half of Missourians unhappy with the job he is doing. Further, the Democrats recruited a very strong candidate in Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, a charismatic military veteran who is currently (at 35) the youngest statewide elected official in America (and the only one born in the 1980s). Kander is going to need (and may get) some coattails, either from popular Democratic governor Jay Nixon, or from Hillary Clinton, whose husband used to govern next-door neighbor Arkansas (in both 1992 and 1996, Bill won Missouri, making him the last Democrato do so). The race was another ugly one, with Blunt slamming Kander for being anti-gun and Kander responding by airing a commercial that had everyone talking: It shows him assembling an AR-15 rifle (and talking about his military service) while blindfolded. Kander has also hit Blunt over the SCOTUS obstructionism, and painted him as a Washington insider, a carpetbagger (largely because Blunt, who was born in Missouri, was photographed wearing a Washington Nationals cap), and a Trump toady. Our prediction: This one is going to be very close, and may well be undecided by the end of the night on Tuesday. However, we're going to go out on a limb and predict that Kander pulls it out.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Kelly Ayotte (R)	Maggie Hassan (D)	New Hampshire is becoming bluer by the year, and though Kelly Ayotte is fairly moderate and fairly popular, the trend may catch up with her eventually. Will that be in 2016? The answer is in the hands of the state's most popular Democrat, Gov. Maggie Hassan, who decided to forego a third term as governor to mount a challenge. This compelled Ayotte to pivot toward the center, criticizing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) as extremist, and also praising President Obama's climate change accord. Those statements angered many New Hampshire Republicans, who are also less-than-thrilled that she's not a Second Amendment zealot (even though she has an 'A' from the NRA). Some of those voters may stay home or vote third party on Election Day. Donald Trump has also been badmouthing Ayotte, though who knows if this will hurt or help her. Definitely not helpful for Ayotte was when she slipped up during the Senatorial debate, and described Donald Trump as a role model for children. She couldn't apologize fast enough for that one, though the damage was already done, and a pro-Hassan commercial using that clip hit the Internet within 24 hours. Meanwhile, Hassan has had a major headache of her own to deal with: Rick Schubart, a former teacher at exclusive Phillips Exeter Academy who was recently dismissed from the school for engaging in multiple acts of sexual misconduct with students. Hassan's husband was a principal at the school, and Schubart even donated money to her previous political campaigns. At best, say Republicans, the situation shows poor judgment on Hassan's part, and at worst, maybe she helped facilitate a coverup. In short, the mud is flying on both sides. The key factor in the race could prove to be...James Comey. Before his letter to Congress, Hillary Clinton was flying high in New Hampshire, and her coattails seemed likely to bring Hassan along for the ride. Afterwards, the Granite State got bearish on Hillary. Can Clinton and her coattails rebound, now that she's been cleared again? It's just too hard to say until the votes are counted. Our prediction: A tossup; there just hasn't been enough time for the polls to shake out

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Richard Burr (R)	Deborah Ross (D)	As Richard Burr tries for a third term in this purple state, his mediocre approval ratings (around 35%) have Democrats sensing an excellent pickup opportunity. However, party officials got their biggest disappointment of the 2016 campaign when former senator Kay Hagan declined to enter the race. Her decision is not terribly surprising, given the challenges of running for a Senate seat in North Carolina. To start, the state's numerous large and distinct media markets make statewide elections very expensive. Indeed, Hagan's loss to Thom Tillis in 2014 was the most costly U.S. Senate contest ever, with a total of $111 million expended. In addition to the stresses of constant fundraising, it is also the case that North Carolinians like to change senators as regularly as some people change socks. In most states, after a difficult first election, a sitting senator has a huge advantage in any subsequent contest and can coast a little bit (or, sometimes, a lot). Not in North Carolina, where 13 of the last 14 Senate races have been decided by single digits, and where each of the nine senators elected between Jesse Helms in 1972 and Burr in 2004 survived for only a single term (or less). So, the Democrat won't be Kay Hagan, it will be the much less visible former State Rep. Deborah Ross, a pragmatic moderate in the mold of Hillary Clinton. Burr easily fought off a challenge from the right in the form of physician Greg Brannon, while Ross scored an equally overwhelming victory over three challengers on the Democratic side of the contest. The DSCC wants the Tar Heel state badly, and has steered steer lots of resources to Ross. North Carolina is also a place where the negative impact of Donald Trump could be palpable, so Burr has reason to be nervous. It does not help him that he got enmeshed in a mini-scandal, having directed $200,000 of PAC money to his in-laws and son in the past 16 years. It's not illegal, but it's not a good look, either. This is going to be another "coattails" kind of race; if Hillary Clinton can win the Tar Heel State by 3-4 points, she probably brings Ross along for the ride. Our prediction: Burr is going to eke out a victory.

North Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John Hoeven (R)	Eliot Glassheim (D)	John Hoeven may be the most popular politician in North Dakota, having served 10 years as governor prior to his first term in the Senate. In Washington, he compiled a voting record designed to keep constituents happy—anti-ObamaCare, anti-immigration, pro-life, pro-Keystone pipeline. North Dakota voters are not entirely averse to voting for Democrats—including their other senator, Heidi Heitkamp—but overall the state is very red. Further, the Democratic bench there is paper-thin. After the deadline for volunteers passed, the party persuaded State Rep. Eliot Glassheim to give it a shot. The fact that he's 78—a bit long in the tooth to be starting a Senate career—and that his campaign "website" is a Facebook page suggests that his only chance of getting elected is if Hoeven is caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl (to borrow Edwin Edwards' phrase). Our prediction: There will be no live boys or dead girls.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Rob Portman (R)	Ted Strickland (D)	If you look up 'bellwether' in the dictionary, you will find a picture of Ohio. The last time the state failed to give its electoral votes to the winning presidential candidate was 1960, and in the half-century since, Ohioans have split their electoral and Senate votes only twice (John Glenn/Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Howard Metzenbaum/George H. W. Bush in 1988). So, no Senate race is more likely to be affected by the presidential contest than this one. During his first term, Rob Portman did his best to improve his reelection odds: He traveled to more than 30 countries in order to develop a reputation as a foreign policy specialist, strengthened his ties to the establishment by serving as chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and banked an impressive $10 million in campaign funds. However, his approval ratings are anemic. The Democrats' candidate is former governor Ted Strickland, who has had a terrible campaign so far, losing the endorsement of several labor unions, and worrying Democrats with his passive approach. He's also lagged Portman in the fundraising department, $10.2 million to $19.2 million. Strickland has consistently been down in the polls, and it just kept getting worse. As such, both Republican and Democratic super PACs halted the flow of money to Ohio, thinking that there might be better races in which to invest. Our prediction: Strickland is a dead man walking.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
James Lankford (R)	Mike Workman (D)	Oklahoma is probably the reddest state in the nation, the only one in which Barack Obama never won a single county. James Lankford is a good match for his constituents, an arch-conservative who laments not only ObamaCare but also Medicare, who would like to shut down the EPA, and who wants to dramatically expand the Patriot Act. After winning the 2014 special election to finish Sen. Tom Coburn's unexpired term, Lankford wants a full term in his own right. His opposition will be Mike Workman, a teacher and political consultant who was crushed the one time he ran for political office. Soon, that will be "both times he ran for political office." Our prediction: Sorry, Mike, it just didn't work, man.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Pat Toomey (R)	Katie McGinty (D)	Although Pennsylvania is the state that gave us Rick Santorum, it is actually quite blue in presidential years. Pat Toomey has been something of a mirror image of Santorum—fiscally conservative, but socially moderate. He barely eked out a victory over Joe Sestak in the Republican wave year of 2010, and so he has reason to be concerned heading into 2016. That said, Toomey will benefit from his low-key, non-confrontational nature—which Pennsylvanians like in their politicians. The Democrat is Katie McGinty, an environmentalist with strong ties to the Clintons and to power brokers in Pennsylvania, but zero experience in elective office. With strong establishment backing, she won a bruising primary over the maverick Sestak, who was back for another go-round. If she is elected, she will be Pennsylvania's first female senator, and the Party is hoping that a Hillary Clinton-Katie McGinty ticket will attract a lot of women voters. The DSCC went all out to make sure McGinty had plenty of resources in what has been one of the highest-profile Senate races. Gun control became a big issue following the Orlando shootings, since Toomey helped defeat a bill that would have banned suspected terrorists from buying guns. He's tried to take a moderate position on the Second Amendment, is was hit by McGinty and her allies for being too gun-friendly, and was also hit but gun-rights groups for not being gun-friendly enough. In fact, some Second Amendment groups are advising a vote for McGinty, so as to send a message to other politicians who dare to soften their stance. Though there will be some ticket-splitting going on, it is likely that as goes the presidential race, so goes the U.S. Senate race. Our prediction: McGinty, in a close one.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tim Scott (R)	Thomas Dixon (D)	South Carolinians like their Senators ultra-conservative and Tim Scott, who was appointed (and then elected) to finish Jim DeMint's unexpired term, fits the bill. A devout evangelical Christian, Scott strongly opposes Iran, abortion, ObamaCare, labor unions, and earmarks for 49 of the 50 states (the $300 million for dredging Charleston's harbor, he argued, was about job creation and not pork). The lone Democrat to declare is Thomas Dixon, a pastor and activist who co-founded The Coalition: People United to Take Back Our Community. He is also a political novice who acknowledges being an alcoholic and drug addict, and who has spent time in prison. There may be states where that would not be a deal-breaker (Nevada?), but South Carolina is not one of them. Our prediction: This one is about as safe as it gets for the GOP..

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John Thune (R)	Jay Williams (D)	The state that was home to liberal three-term Democratic senator and presidential candidate George McGovern, as well as more recent three-term Democratic senators Tom Daschle and Tim Johnson, is now deep red. So much so, in fact, that John Thune ran unopposed in 2010. The Democrats are stuck with political neophyte Jay Williams, who—when he announced his intention to run—explained that he's very qualified for office because he has a degree in political science. Our prediction: Williams is going to get crushed, of course.

Utah

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mike Lee (R)	Misty Snow (D)	Mike Lee is very conservative, which Utahns like just fine—he won each of his first two Senate elections by 30 points. His Democratic opponent is going to be Misty Snow, a late entry who—if elected—would become the first transgender U.S. Senator. While it is true that Salt Lake City has a gay mayor, that's going to be a bridge too far for rural dwellers and residents of more socially-conservative cities like Provo and Orem. Our prediction: Lee is going to win this one in a walk.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ron Johnson (R)	Russ Feingold (D)	Ron Johnson won a close election over Russ Feingold in 2010 (51% to 47%) and then served a fairly lackluster first term. He has particularly been hurt by his highly publicized confrontation with Hillary Clinton during the congressional hearings on Benghazi, and also by his propensity to shoot from the hip. Among other impolitic moments, he has suggested that those who take out student loans are lazy, those who utilize ObamaCare are moochers, and has referred to American Muslims as "those people." He's also being investigated on an ethics charge stemming from a $10 million payment he received from his former firm shortly before becoming a senator. The Wisconsin Democratic Party argues that it's either an illegal corporate contribution, or that Johnson falsified his financial disclosure forms. Either way, not good. The Senator's opponent is Feingold, who will attempt to become only the second senator in history to reclaim his seat in a rematch (the first was Peter Gerry of Rhode Island, who lost his reelection bid in 1928 but came back to defeat GOP senator Felix Hebert in 1934). Feingold has has some pretty serious baggage of his own, however. Having made a name as a campaign finance reformer, he declined most outside funds in 2010. Though perhaps a sincere gesture, this crippled his campaign and contributed substantially to his defeat. Now, Feingold will accept that money ($21.6 million, more than any other Senate candidate), which will be helpful on a practical level but will also open him up to charges of hypocrisy. In addition, after leaving office, the PAC that Feingold founded—Progressives United—appears to have spent considerably more money on Feingold's salary and on buying copies of his book to give out as "gifts" rather than actually lobbying for progressive causes. And he too is being investigated; the Wisconsin GOP insists that Feingold began his Senate campaign while serving as U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes Region and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. If true, that would be a no-no. On balance, it looks like Johnson's baggage is more problematic than Feingold's, because the Democrat started to pull away in the polls. It's the reverse of the situation in Ohio, but with the same result: Both parties redirected their money to more competitive races, leaving the underdog to face the possibility of going it alone. Interestingly, Johnson bounced back after being cut off, so he might have triumphed, if not for his September-October swoon. As it is, he's likely out of luck. Our prediction: Feingold, but in "too close for comfort" fashion.