Sep. 09

Pres map

Pres polls: FL NC NH OH OR PA
Dem pickups: NC
GOP pickups: FL IA OH

Previous | Next

Colin Powell Advised Clinton to Use a Private Email Server

It has been known for some time that Colin Powell used a private email server when he was Secretary of State. Now it has come out that Powell also advised Hillary Clinton to avoid the State Department's email server, and gave her detailed instructions how to do it. He also told her not to get caught. While Powell's advice doesn't excuse Clinton—she didn't have to follow it, after all—for anyone taking a new job unlike anything she had done in the past, it makes sense to talk to someone who had the job and not just discard his advice with, "What does he know?" As more hearings on her email server are forthcoming, Powell's advice will surely be brought up during them. (V)

Gary Johnson Has a Rick Perry Moment

During a presidential debate in 2011, Rick Perry said he would abolish three government departments. When the moderator asked him which ones would go, he could name only two of them. That was the end of Rick Perry. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson may have had his Rick Perry moment yesterday, when he was asked what he would do about Aleppo and he said: "What is Aleppo?" That was the wrong answer. The flub is all over the media and is likely to hurt his chances of making the 15% cutoff for the first debate. Having Johnson (and Jill Stein) in the audience rather than on stage is just fine with Donald Trump, who said yesterday that he wants to debate just Clinton.

No one was expecting him to know what to do about Aleppo. Even Hillary Clinton, who probably understands the ins and outs of the situation better than anyone else on the planet, doesn't know what to do. Very briefly summarized, there is a civil war in Syria. On one side is a brutal dictator who uses poison gas against his own people. He is supported by Russia and Iran, adversaries, if not enemies, of the U.S.. The U.S. clearly can't help this side. The other side is a ragtag bunch of irregulars, many of whom belong to ISIS or possibly Al Qaeda. The U.S. clearly can't help that side either, and trying to do so would risk a war with Russia. The epicenter of the battle is Aleppo, Syria's largest city and the source of thousands of refugees trying to escape the fighting. If Johnson had simply thrown up his hands and said, "I don't know!," no one would have faulted him, since it is a lose-lose situation. But not knowing about the Battle of Aleppo, which has been going on for years, makes him look ignorant about world affairs. (V)

Trump Makes a Proposal on Education

Campaign manager Kellyanne Conway is clearly having an effect on Donald Trump. Yesterday he made a serious policy proposal. He proposed a $20 billion federal program to expand charter and private schools for low-income children, to get them out of failing public schools. This is a legitimate (if controversial) proposal that conservatives have supported for a long time. However, he picked an odd place to make the announcement: the Cleveland Arts and Social Sciences Academy, an Ohio charter school. One problem is that the latest state report on the school shows that in math and reading, it is failing. Democrats, as well as teachers' unions, are wildly against the idea, saying it would let charter and private schools cherry pick the best students to enroll, leaving the public schools with only the unmanageable and failing students.

As well, not all conservatives like the idea. In particular, the libertarian Cato Institute doesn't like the federal government meddling in education at all. While charter and private schools are fine with the Institute, the initiative should come from the states, not from Washington, in their view. (V)

Clinton Holds a Formal Press Conference

Hillary Clinton has been pilloried in the press for not holding a news conference for nearly nine months. On Monday and Tuesday, she talked to reporters in her new plane, which has a press section. Yesterday, she went whole hog and held an official, formal press conference. A Chris Cillizza puts it, "And, nothing happened. The world didn't stop spinning. Toilets still flushed the same way." Reporters asked questions and she answered them. It wasn't painful at all. At press conferences, most of the questions are about public policy issues, something Clinton knows a tremendous amount about. If a reporter were to ask her about Aleppo, he or she would get a very detailed answer about the situation, explaining all the options and why all of them are bad. She would definitely not say: "What is Aleppo?" It is clearly to her advantage to hold more press conferences in the future.

The Hill has five takeaways from her press conference:

In short, summer is over and she is turning a new page, including more contact with the media, more attacking Trump, and an attempt to change her image. (V)

Twelve Governors Will Be Chosen in November

Most governors are elected during the midterm elections (when many Democrats don't bother to vote), but a dozen states have gubernatorial elections this year. In all the excitement over the White House, Senate, and (maybe) the House, no one seems to be paying attention to them, but governors matter, even in national politics. They can approve or veto gerrymanders, voter ID laws, changes to early voting, and much more. They also appoint replacement senators, in many cases, which matters a lot when the upper chamber is 50-50 or 51-49. Larry Sabato has a good rundown of all the races for governor in 2016. Let's start with Sabato's map:

Map

To start with: Washington, Oregon, and Delaware are safe holds for the Democrats. Utah and North Dakota are safe holds for the Republicans. Despite its preference for Republicans for president, Montana often prefers Democrats for governor, and Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is favored to be reelected. The other six states are basically tossups, with North Carolina being a special case. Here is a quick summary.

So, the bottom line is: a lot of nail-biters. (V)

Trump Made Nine Controversial Statements in 24 Minutes

NBC's Chuck Todd and colleagues have pointed out the false equivalence so many in the media make between Hillary Clinton's flaws and Donald Trump's. In particular, while Clinton's email server is still big news, Trump made nine statements in 24 minutes that would have basically disqualified anyone else from the presidency. Their list:

It used to be that one bad word (think: "macaca" in 2006) could sink a candidate. Not any more, at least not for Donald Trump. Imagine what would happen to any other politician who said Putin was a stronger leader than Obama. No other candidate, not even a Republican, could get away with that. It would be considered treason. Although, Mike Pence is going to see for himself (more below). (V)

Trump's "Teleprompter Gap"

NBC News' Benjy Sarlin notes that Wednesday's events gave us an interesting opportunity to compare two different versions of Donald Trump. In the morning, he gave a speech on national security and military preparedness. There, we saw the more disciplined version of Trump, Trump 2.0, where his verbiage and his proposals were carefully curated in the way we would expect from a professional politician. In the evening, Trump appeared at the NBC News forum for a discussion focused on national security and military preparedness. There, we saw Trump 1.0—undisciplined, speaking off the cuff, saying the sorts of things that send his spokespeople scrambling to explain what he really meant.

Sarlin describes the distinction between the two Trumps, quite aptly, as the "teleprompter gap." When Kellyanne Conway, et al., can put words into The Donald's mouth—can program him, effectively speaking—they are able to create a fairly presidential presentation. But when they are unable to exert that sort of control, then Trump is right back at square one. And the big problem, looming on the horizon, is the debates. Barring the unexpected, the three matchups—and particularly the first one—are the last chance the candidates will have to move the needle in a meaningful way. Under the best of circumstances, the debates can only be semi-scripted. And if the candidate is uninterested in preparation, even that is not possible. Which means that as Conway, et al. pour their efforts into making the best Trump 2.0 they can, they surely must dread the Trump 1.0 disaster that all signs point to on September 26. (Z)

Intelligence Official Challenges Trump

As noted above, Donald Trump raised quite a few eyebrows with his verbiage on Wednesday night. Among the assertions that has triggered some of the loudest and most immediate blowback is his declaration that, during their briefing, intelligence officials communicated their disagreement with Barack Obama through their body language. David Priess, a U.S. intelligence official who used to give those briefings to George W. Bush, was exasperated by this and called it "wildly unlikely."

The issue here is not that Trump besmirched the reputation of President Obama, it is that his suggestion implies a gross breach of ethics on the part of intelligence officials. They are supposed to provide information only, and not to give recommendations about what to do with that information. As Priess puts it, giving advice is "the third rail of intelligence—you don't touch it." So, while Trump likely did not realize it, his insult of Obama was in fact a slap in the face of the U.S intelligence establishment. At the same time, notes Priess, he may have inadvertently revealed that he does not understand the difference between information and advice.

There were concerns that giving Trump access to sensitive information could be problematic, given his tendency to shoot from the hip. Thus far, he does not appear to have compromised national security. However, can anyone be surprised that he was unable to keep the briefings on the down-low, and that he somehow found a way to put them front and center? Priess suggests he is, "seeking to politicize intel briefings he's received in a way that no other candidate has ever done." Hard to disagree with that conclusion. (Z)

Pence Agrees with Trump on Putin/Obama

Donald Trump has had kind things to say about Russian leader Vladimir Putin, on many occasions. He even appeared on Russian TV on Wednesday to share his views (though his campaign claimed The Donald didn't know the interview, which was done with Larry King, was going to be broadcast in Russia). In any case, Trump's running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN), has now jumped on board the Putin train. During an interview with CNN's Dana Bash, he opined:

I think it's inarguable that Vladimir Putin has been a stronger leader in his country than Barack Obama has been in this country, and that's going to change the day that Donald Trump becomes President of the United States of America.

Undoubtedly, saying that Putin is better than Obama throws the base some nice, red meat (or some nice, red borscht). However, Pence will likely live to regret this day. First of all, saying anything positive about Putin puts him at odds with most of the Republican establishment. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), for example, has regularly lambasted Trump's pro-Putin rhetoric; on Thursday, he described the Russian leader as, "an aggressor that does not share our interests." Given that Ryan and Pence are likely to be facing off for the GOP nomination in 2020, the Speaker can be expected to bring up Pence's words early and often.

And even if we just limit ourselves to 2016 impact, Pence still stepped in it. He's likely to be asked, quite regularly, about whether or not he is pro-Russia. Outside of the base (who are already in the bag for Trump/Pence), that is not a good look. Further, on October 4, he will be debating Tim Kaine. Imagine that the moderator, Elaine Quijano, asks something like this: "Gov. Pence, you've said that Vladimir Putin is a stronger leader than Barack Obama. Can you list three specific ways in which you feel this is the case?" This is a virtually unanswerable question, first because Pence likely knows little in terms of the specifics of Putin's governance, second because he runs the very grave risk of endorsing various sorts of anti-democratic strongarm tactics. He had better hope that Quijano is as kind to him as Matt Lauer was to Trump. (Z)

Anti-Trump Super PAC files DOJ Bribery Complaint

With the story breaking that Donald Trump paid an apparent bribe to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi to drop the fraud case against Trump University, surely this was just a matter of time. And now, the other shoe has officially dropped. The super PAC Democratic Coalition Against Trump (DCAT), has filed a formal complaint with the Dept. of Justice, asking them to look into the matter.

Justice is required, by statute, to look into the complaint and to produce an official response. It is 59 days until the election; presumably they cannot work that quickly. So, while a finding of some sort of malfeasance is possible (perhaps even probable), DCAT isn't going to get that by November 8. But what they have done is assured that the story will linger, on and on, serving as something of a counterweight to the e-mail server. On that level, the filing was a pretty shrewd political maneuver. It is possible that the report comes out before Jan. 20, and whether he wins or loses the election, it could be embarassing to Trump. (Z)

Divorce Rate May Spike after the Election

Back when America was great (the 1950s), wives were expected to vote the way their husbands told them to vote. It doesn't work like that any more, and with Donald Trump strong among men and Hillary Clinton strong among women, pillow talk may get more heated than it has been in a long time. In a recent focus group, women report that their husbands are pressuring them to vote for Trump, and they don't like that one bit. This has led to a "Vote Trump, get dumped" campaign, and a rerun of the Greek play Lysistrata in some bedrooms. Slate's Dear Prudence (Mallory Ortberg) recently had to deal with a woman's question about what to do about her Trump-loving husband. The reply was that maybe her husband's love for an irresponsible xenophobic fascist might reveal some fundamental differences between her and her spouse. (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

Florida and North Carolina are still battlegrounds. Ohio is, too, although the 4-point lead Trump has there could just be a statistical fluctuation, since most other polls put Clinton ahead in the Buckeye State.

Note that the map today has Trump ahead in the key swing states of Florida and Ohio as well as Iowa, Georgia, and Arizona, and he still loses the electoral college. Even if he turned Nevada and North Carolina red, he would still come up short with only 265 EVs. (V)

State Clinton Trump Johnson Start End Pollster
Florida 43% 43% 8% Aug 29 Sep 07 Quinnipiac U.
North Carolina 41% 44% 4% Sep 05 Sep 07 Suffolk U.
North Carolina 42% 38% 15% Aug 29 Sep 07 Quinnipiac U.
New Hampshire 43% 32% 12% Aug 20 Aug 28 U. of New Hampshire
Ohio 37% 41% 14% Aug 29 Sep 07 Quinnipiac U.
Oregon 38% 25% 10% Sep 01 Sep 06 DHM Research
Pennsylvania 44% 39% 9% Aug 29 Sep 07 Quinnipiac U.

Today's Senate Polls

Suffolk has Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) ahead of Deborah Ross by 4 points, a lead that is similar to what Suffolk has for Trump in the presidential race. Other polls disagree with this. It could be a fluke or maybe a house effect for Suffolk. (V)

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
North Carolina Deborah Ross 37% Richard Burr* 41% Sep 05 Sep 07 Suffolk U.

* Denotes incumbent


Back to the main page