ABC News has been polling presidential elections since 1992 so we have some data on how good they are. Here are the data:
Year | Candidates | One week out | Final poll | Election results | 1 Week correct? |
2016 | Clinton-Trump | 45% - 46% | ? | ? | ? |
2012 | Obama-Romney | 48% - 49% | 40% - 47% | 51% - 47% | No |
2008 | Obama-McCain | 52% - 45% | 53% - 44% | 53% - 46% | Yes |
2004 | Kerry-Bush | 49% - 48% | 48% - 49% | 48% - 51% | No |
2000 | Gore-Bush | 45% - 48% | 45% - 48% | 48% - 48% | Yes |
1996 | Clinton-Dole | 54% - 35% | 51% - 39% | 49% - 41% | Yes |
1992 | Clinton-Bush | 41% - 34% | 44% - 37% | 43% - 37% | Yes |
For the most part, ABC News has gotten it right, except for 2012 and 2004, when the network called it wrong a week before the election. Note, however, that ABC's final 2012 and 2004 polls were correct, so, not surprisingly, the final poll has a better track record than the poll a week before the election. Right now, ABC is calling the election for Trump. Will it get the results right? Come back in a week. (V)
ABC News is a bit bearish on Hillary Clinton, but the New York Times' Nate Cohn isn't. While the polling impact of James Comey's letter to Congress is not fully known yet, Cohn observes that the polling shifts we've seen in this election have not proven to be enduring. The tides may ebb or flow a bit, but ultimately Hillary Clinton's numbers remain within a fairly well-defined range (low to high-40s nationally), as do Donald Trump's (mid-30s to low-40s nationally). There's every reason to suspect the same will hold this week.
Further, Cohn argues, whatever shifts we do see don't actually represent voters changing their minds. He believes (as do we) that at this point in the process, most voters are fairly set in their choices. However, quite a few of those voters are making their choices very begrudgingly, left with two options that they consider to be unsatisfactory. The theory is that when something bad happens to Clinton, the begrudging Clinton voters become less likely to admit to pollsters (and to themselves) the unhappy choice they have made. And when something bad happens to Trump, the same thing happens with begrudging Trump voters. This thesis is hard to prove directly, but it certainly does seem to explain the patterns we've seen in the last few months. (Z)
We've now gotten to the point where all the pundits are yelling: "turnout, turnout, turnout," and for good reason. That matters more than TV ads at this point. But turnout isn't just a matter of whether 125 million or 135 million people vote, but who votes. Here are a few key questions about turnout that matter:
In short, there are so many factors at play here that it is hard to predict turnout next week.
Note that Clinton is running ahead of where Obama was on this date in 2012 (click on "2012" in legend to see that). He was at 281 electoral votes and she is now at 323. In 2012, Romney was leading in Colorado and North Carolina, states that Clinton is likely to win. Also, Florida and Virginia were tied then and look like they will go blue this year. The two states Obama had nailed down and Clinton might lose are Iowa and Ohio, but Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia are worth 66 EVs and Iowa plus Ohio are worth only 24. (V)
As we draw ever closer to Election Day, trends in early voting are becoming clearer. Tuesday saw some good news for both campaigns.
Starting with the Clinton good news (aka the Trump bad news), surveys conducted by TargetSmart indicate that 28% of early-voting Republicans in Florida are casting their ballots for Hillary Clinton. If this presages what's going to happen on Election Day (even if the final percentage drops to, say, 15%), Donald Trump's goose is cooked. He's not likely to peel off many voters from Clinton, and so an implausibly large number of Democrats would have to stay home in order for The Donald to make up the difference. And without Florida, he has no real path to 270 electoral votes.
Now to the Trump good news. Among black voters, early voting is down quite a bit, particularly in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina—roughly 20%. Since 90% of black voters vote for Democrats (likely more this year, actually), that's a huge loss for Hillary Clinton. The popular explanation for this is that Clinton, for a number of reasons, does not engender the enthusiasm that Barack Obama did. That's likely true, but as Slate's Jamelle Bouie notes, it also appears to be a product (particularly in North Carolina) of GOP efforts to curtail the black vote through reduced early voting, pruning of voter rolls, and the like. The Clinton campaign has sent Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) on a tour of small, majority-black communities in the Tar Heel State. Whether he makes an impact or not, it's certainly looking like it's going to be close there. (Z)
George P. Bush, son of Jeb and nephew of George W., has gotten into the family business, serving as a land commissioner in Texas. He was at a rally on Tuesday—one wonders what kind of people attend a land commissioner rally—and he let slip that his uncle may well be casting his ballot for Hillary Clinton.
There was little doubt that George W. wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump, given that they are very different kinds of Republicans, along with Trump's treatment of brother Jeb. Now, it seems he has reached the same conclusion his father did: Better to vote for a less-than-ideal Democrat than for a third-party candidate. If the news is true, then that will give Clinton the complete set of ex-presidents. In fact, with three Democrats and two Republicans, it's a full house. (Z)
Typically, politicians promote their own candidacies and pooh-pooh the candidacies of their opponents. But 2016 has been anything but typical, and so it is that Libertarian VP nominee Bill Weld gave a remarkably candid interview to MSNBC's Rachel Maddow. In it, he acknowledged that his ticket is not going to win, and then went on to criticize James Comey and defend Hillary Clinton. "I'm here vouching for Mrs. Clinton, and I think it's high time somebody did," Weld remarked. Indeed, given the tone and tenor of the appearance, it's not inconceivable that Weld and George W. Bush (see above) will be voting the same way for president on Election Day. (Z)
One upside for Hillary Clinton, after FBI Director James Comey announced that he found some of her emails on Anthony Weiner's computer, is that frightened Democrats ponied up $11 million for her in three days, her largest haul since securing the Democratic nomination.
The money could come in handy as the race appears to tighten. Clinton has been forced to spend money in states where she had long since stopped advertising, including Virginia, Colorado, Michigan, and New Mexico. Until last week, they were in the bag for her.
She is running two ads in those places. The first one features clips of Trump saying he will bomb the s*** out of ISIS and that he knows more than the generals about military strategy. The second one features some of his more controversial statements while children watch him on television.
The Trump campaign has also released two new ads. The first is a TV ad saying that Clinton will lead to stagnation, fewer jobs, rising crime, and America diminished at home and abroad. The second is a radio ad has Liberty University president Jerry Falwell, Jr. saying: "As Christians, we cannot allow our Supreme Court to be stacked with liberal justices who will transform America and threaten our freedoms." It is, obviously, aimed at evangelicals. (V)
The Transport Workers Union in Pennsylvania went on strike yesterday, so public transit in Philadelphia and surrounding areas has ground to a halt. If the strike continues until Election Day, many voters might not be able to get to the polls, and this could depress the vote in this heavily Democratic region. That might be enough to hand Pennsylvania, a critical state, to Donald Trump, and potentially with it, the keys to the White House. Voting early is not an option in Pennsylvania, and it is too late to request an absentee ballot. (V)
A few states, among them Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, allow voters who have cast an early ballot to revoke their earlier vote and vote again. Donald Trump called on early Clinton voters to retract their vote and vote again on Election Day. The procedure is not easy and applies only to absentee ballots, where election officials can find the early vote in its sealed envelope and destroy it. People who voted early in person and put their ballot in the ballot box can't vote again because there is no way to find and destroy the first vote. (V)
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both wealthy New Yorkers, but they have something else in common: Both fly home almost every night to sleep in their own beds. This daily detour is a tremendous waste of the candidates' time, even for multibedded candidates like these. Clinton has a brick Georgian-style mansion in D.C. as well as a five-bedroom colonial house in Chappaqua, NY. Trump has Trump Tower in Manhattan, Mar-a-Lago in Florida, and hotels in various other states where he can stay. This pattern is unusual. Mitt Romney, who had plenty of beds to call his own, just stayed wherever he was campaigning. After all, even the presidential suite at a top hotel is cheaper than flying home, not to mention less wearing on the candidate. Of course, if the final rally for a day is in East Podunk and the only lodging is Motel 6, then it's homeward bound.
When Trump uses his aging, gas-guzzling 757, he can't land at Teterboro, NJ—the airport of choice for wealthy New Yorkers with their own planes—because the 100,000-pound plane is too heavy for its runways. Instead, he has to land at LaGuardia, which he has called a third-world airport. When Clinton is flying to Chappaqua, she uses Westchester County Airport (HPN), 8 miles south of her home. (V)
Members of the House Freedom Caucus will hold a "secret" meeting in D.C. today, although since Politico has reported it, it is not so secret any more. The main agenda point is what to do about Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), whom they strongly dislike. The Republican conference will vote on its preference for speaker by secret ballot a week after the election, even though the speaker is chosen by the full House in January. It is not clear why the Freedom Caucus is bothering to meet today, since its strategy (and power) will surely depend on the composition of the new House. If the number of Republicans in the House who are not in their caucus is 218 or more, nothing they do will matter, and Paul Ryan will be reelected as speaker. If that number is less than 218, it will get interesting, as Ryan may not get enough votes to win, potentially forcing him to negotiate with Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to get her members to support him. She has been around politics long enough to have a pretty good idea of what she could extract from him in return. So even if the Republicans hold the House, life could get quite dicey for Ryan. (V)
The Democrats have a decent shot at getting 50 or more Senate seats next week, but their celebration will last only two years. The 2018 Senate map looks extremely bad for the Democrats, with at least seven Democratic incumbents facing tough races. Here is the map:
Here is a list of the senators in the states with a question mark above. In a year with depressed Democratic turnout, they could all be in big trouble, especially if Hillary Clinton is president and her approval rating is low.
State | Incumbent | 2012 Margin |
Florida | Bill Nelson | D+13 |
Indiana | Joe Donnelly | D+6 |
Missouri | Claire McCaskill | D+16 |
Montana | Jon Tester | D+2 |
North Dakota | Heidi Heitkamp | D+1 |
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | D+6 |
West Virginia | Joe Manchin | D+24 |
Even though some of the Democrats above won by substantial margins in 2012, in 2018 they will be facing far less friendly electorates than in 2012 because turnout is vastly lower in midterm elections, and the missing voters skew overwhelmingly Democratic. In 2012, 57% of the eligible voters turned out. In 2014 it was 36%. That is a dramatic drop, and 2018 is likely to be just as bad. This means all of the above Democrats will be in tough fights.
In addition, there were special factors in some of the 2012 races. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) easily beat Todd "legitimate rape" Akin. Most likely, the Missouri Republican Party will advise her 2018 challenger not to discuss rape too much, if possible. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) had it easy. The Republican Party of West Virginia couldn't find anyone who wanted to run, so by default, businessman John Raese, whose hobby is running for public office and being crushed, became the Republican candidate. In 2018, the Republicans will surely be able to find a member of the House or state legislature who is willing to try.
Of course, turnout isn't everything. Candidates, the economy, the popularity of the president, and more also matter, Nevertheless, unless the Democrats get 53 or more seats in the 2016 election, they are going to struggle to keep their majority in 2018. (V)
Not too much to see here, really. That North Carolina poll that puts Donald Trump up by 7 points is at odds with virtually every other poll of the Tar Heel State; we're not buying it. (Z)
State | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Start | End | Pollster |
California | 56% | 35% | 4% | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | SurveyUSA |
Florida | 48% | 40% | 3% | Oct 25 | Oct 30 | TargetSmart/Wm. & Mary |
Illinois | 45% | 34% | 6% | Oct 26 | Oct 27 | Loras Coll. |
Illinois | 53% | 41% | 2% | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Emerson Coll. |
Kentucky | 32% | 56% | Oct 26 | Oct 28 | Cygnal | |
Kentucky | 37% | 54% | 1% | Oct 25 | Oct 30 | Western Kentucky U. |
Maine | 42% | 37% | 9% | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Maine Peoples Res. Ctr. |
Maine | 46% | 42% | 5% | Oct 28 | Oct 30 | Emerson Coll. |
Missouri | 38% | 52% | 4% | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Monmouth U. |
North Carolina | 42% | 41% | 3% | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Elon U. |
North Carolina | 44% | 51% | 3% | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | SurveyUSA |
Oregon | 41% | 34% | 4% | Oct 24 | Oct 29 | DHM Research |
South Dakota | 35% | 49% | 7% | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Nielson Bros. |
Virginia | 48% | 42% | 6% | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | George Mason U. |
Virginia | 49% | 45% | 3% | Oct 28 | Oct 30 | Emerson Coll. |
Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) better be getting his LinkedIn profile up to date, because he's going to be looking for a job starting November 9. Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) should be nervous, too. Not enough data yet to think that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) or Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) should be starting to sweat, but with a couple more adverse polls, we could be there. As with yesterday, those Colorado numbers are not credible. (Z)
State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
Alaska | Ray Metcalfe | 26% | Lisa Murkowski* | 52% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Alabama | Ron Crumpton | 36% | Richard Shelby* | 60% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Arkansas | Conner Eldridge | 44% | John Boozman* | 54% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Arizona | Ann Kirkpatrick | 46% | John McCain* | 49% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
California | Kamala Harris | 47% | Loretta Sanchez (D) | 27% | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | SurveyUSA |
California | Kamala Harris | 50% | Loretta Sanchez (D) | 30% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Colorado | Michael Bennet* | 48% | Darryl Glenn | 46% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Connecticut | Richard Blumenthal* | 59% | Dan Carter | 38% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Florida | Patrick Murphy | 43% | Marco Rubio* | 49% | Oct 25 | Oct 30 | TargetSmart/Wm. & Mary |
Florida | Patrick Murphy | 47% | Marco Rubio* | 49% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Georgia | Jim Barksdale | 41% | Johnny Isakson* | 50% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Hawaii | Brian Schatz* | 69% | John Carroll | 27% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Iowa | Patty Judge | 41% | Chuck Grassley* | 56% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Idaho | Jerry Sturgill | 34% | Mike Crapo* | 61% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Illinois | Tammy Duckworth | 42% | Mark Kirk* | 34% | Oct 26 | Oct 27 | Loras Coll. |
Illinois | Tammy Duckworth | 54% | Mark Kirk* | 36% | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Emerson Coll. |
Illinois | Tammy Duckworth | 57% | Mark Kirk* | 38% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Indiana | Evan Bayh | 46% | Todd Young | 50% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Kansas | Patrick Wiesner | 39% | Jerry Moran* | 56% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Kentucky | Jim Gray | 39% | Rand Paul* | 55% | Oct 25 | Oct 30 | Western Kentucky U. |
Kentucky | Jim Gray | 42% | Rand Paul* | 52% | Oct 26 | Oct 28 | Cygnal |
Kentucky | Jim Gray | 46% | Rand Paul* | 52% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Maryland | Chris Van Hollen | 66% | Kathy Szeliga | 31% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Missouri | Jason Kander | 46% | Roy Blunt* | 47% | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Monmouth U. |
Missouri | Jason Kander | 51% | Roy Blunt* | 45% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
North Carolina | Deborah Ross | 40% | Richard Burr* | 44% | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Elon U. |
North Carolina | Deborah Ross | 43% | Richard Burr* | 49% | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | SurveyUSA |
North Carolina | Deborah Ross | 47% | Richard Burr* | 43% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
North Dakota | Eliot Glassheim | 27% | John Hoeven* | 71% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Nevada | Catherine Cortez-Masto | 47% | Joe Heck | 47% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
New York | Chuck Schumer* | 68% | Wendy Long | 28% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Ohio | Ted Strickland | 40% | Rob Portman* | 55% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Oklahoma | Mike Workman | 35% | James Lankford* | 62% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Oregon | Ron Wyden* | 62% | Mark Callahan | 34% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Pennsylvania | Katie McGinty | 49% | Pat Toomey* | 46% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
South Carolina | Thomas Dixon | 39% | Tim Scott* | 56% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
South Dakota | Jay Williams | 31% | John Thune* | 67% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
South Dakota | Jay Williams | 35% | John Thune* | 54% | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Nielson Bros. |
Utah | Misty Snow | 34% | Mike Lee* | 62% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Vermont | Patrick Leahy* | 64% | Scott Milne | 33% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Washington | Patty Murray* | 61% | Chris Vance | 36% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |
Wisconsin | Russ Feingold | 49% | Ron Johnson* | 49% | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | SurveyMonkey |