Previous | Next
Top Republicans Condemn Trump's Remarks on Orlando
Donald Trump is now fighting a two-front war. On the one hand, he is being attacked by the Democratic Party. On the other hand, he is being attacked by the Republican Party. Trump's doubling down on his hatred of Muslims has not gone over well with the leaders of either party and neither has his openly wondering whose side an increasingly popular President Obama is on.
Yesterday Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) denounced Trump, while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) refused to defend him. Sen. Bob Corker (T-TN), who is a leading candidate to be Trump's running mate, expressed unease over the way Trump responded to a national tragedy, saying: "Traditionally, it is a time when people rally around our country and it's obviously not what occurred, and it's very disappointing." Even Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a very partisan Republican, said that Trump's suggestion that Obama may be "one of them" is very offensive. And of course, Hillary Clinton and other Democrats had a field day going after Trump. People who are waiting for a more presidential Trump 2.0 may have to wait a long time.
It isn't only Republican leaders who think Trump blew it with his speech Monday. A CBS poll shows that 51% of Americans don't like his response to the Orlando massacre while only 25% approve of it. Also, 62% oppose his idea of banning Muslims from entering the country while only 31% approve. These are not good numbers to start your campaign with. (V)
Negative Views of Trump Are Back To an All-Time High
According to a new WaPo/ABC poll 70% of Americans have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. This is the highest level since last summer, when 71% of Americans held a negative view of the New York businessman. Fortunately for him, among registered voters only 69% have a negative view of him. The number is also up 10 points since last month's poll. Hillary Clinton's unfavorables are stable at 55%, also extremely high, but considerably better than Trump's.
Trump's standing has dropped with a wide variety of demographic groups. He has taken double-digit hits among liberals, conservatives, Republican women, and Democratic men. Independents and blue-collar workers are also souring on him.
Among Republicans, 34% have an unfavorable view of Trump vs. only 25% of Democrats who have a negative view of Hillary Clinton. And it is worse for Trump than these numbers suggest because some of the anti-Clinton Democrats are Sanders supporters, many of whom are likely to become more pro-Clinton once Sanders endorses her. (V)
Politico Makes an Initial Electoral-College Map
Politico has examined the early state polls and made an initial projection of which way the swing states are leaning in the general election. They note—and we emphasize—that this is extremely preliminary because there simply hasn't been enough general election state polling. Some of the polls Politico is using are from last year. The sparsity of polls is why we have not yet begun with the daily map update. Nevertheless, for what it is worth (not much), here is the initial state of the states.
|
|
There are 18 states plus D.C. that the Democrats have won in the past six presidential elections and are likely to win again in 2016. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are part of this "blue wall" so it is not surprising they are blue now. These states add up to 242 electoral votes. If Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are added to the Democrats' total, they have 321, more than the 270 need to win. And this is without counting Nevada, for which no polls exist. Politico didn't even mention New Mexico, which is has become blue enough that it is only marginally a swing state now. (V)
Trump May Have a Money Problem
Donald Trump has taken a few baby steps to raising serious money, but that's all. In 2012, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney raised $100 million between his acquisition of presumptive nominee status and the Republican National Convention. In contrast, Trump is still playing minor league ball. Romney's national finance chair, John Rakolta, Jr., recently said: "The fundraising intensity is missing—totally." Rakolta was amazed by the fact that Trump has not contacted him, nor has Trump contacted most of the usual Republican rainmakers. The Donald doesn't seem to know or care how modern campaigns are run or financed. (V)
"Sanderscrats" Not Doing Well
Bernie Sanders, along with many of his supporters, had hoped that the movement he launched would continue on beyond his candidacy. The early returns are now in, and thus far, it does not look like that is happening. Sanders had lent his support to a pair of candidates for Congress from Nevada—Lucy Flores and Jesse Sbaih. Flores lost to Ruben Kihuen, who had the backing of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), by 14 points. Sbaih did even worse, losing by 49 points.
The biggest test for Sanders' coattails is still several months away. In Florida, Sanders has endorsed Tim Canova, and has helped him raise $1 million for his race against DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL). Voters in the Sunshine State will cast their votes on August 30. Given Sanders' level of involvement in the race, along with his rivalry with Wasserman Schultz, it would be a very bad sign indeed for the Sanders revolution if she prevails. (Z)
Union Leaders See No Migration of Workers To Trump
Donald Trump's base consists of blue-collar white men, some of whom are union members. These people have been Republicans for years but a key question is whether those blue-collar workers who previously voted for the Democrats have become Republicans this year. Local union leaders in the Rust Belt are saying that they see little movement towards Trump. For example, Jason Barlow, president of a UAW local in Ohio, says that although some of his members support Trump, on the whole his chapter leans Democratic. Some union members supported Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in the primaries, but that support doesn't seem to be moving to Trump. Katie Kelley, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local in Lansing, MI, said that Clinton has some baggage, but that in a Clinton-Trump race, her members would largely go for Clinton.
Nevertheless, there are pockets of union activity where Trump is popular, in particular, where gun rights are important. Trump also does well in areas where immigration and trade are at the top of the agenda. (V)
Rubio Senate Run Getting More Likely
There has been a great deal of pressure on Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) to stand for reelection, despite his stated intention to vacate his seat. One of the biggest obstacles is the fact that his close friend, Carlos Lopez-Cantera, has spent a year running for the seat. Well, as the two men toured the site of the Orlando shootings, Lopez-Cantera reportedly joined the chorus of GOP insiders encouraging Rubio to run again, and expressed a willingness to step aside.
The path for a Rubio re-run is getting clearer, then, though there are still a couple of big complications. The first is that he notoriously hates serving in the Senate, and would presumably be reluctant to sign up for six more years of the same. The second is that, while he probably has the best chance of any Republican to win the seat, victory is far from assured. His first victory came in a midterm year; this year, Floridians handed him a stinging rebuke in primary season. The state's voters are undoubtedly aware of Rubio's low enthusiasm for the job, and his less-than-stellar attendance record, so an uphill battle just becomes that much more steep. Whatever his decision, Rubio needs to make it quickly, since the filing deadline is June 24. (Z)
Senate To Vote on Gun Control Measures
On Wednesday, Democratic senators undertook one of the longest filibusters in history, with members standing on the Senate floor and taking turns reading the phone book for 15 hours. Ultimately, GOP leadership agreed to a vote on two measures, one that would bar people on the government's terrorist watch list from buying guns, and one that would expand background checks for weapons purchased at gun shows and over the Internet.
Presumably, this is just political theater. Since the Senate is still controlled by the Republican majority, and gun rights are one of the few issues that unifies the modern GOP, the measures seem likely to go down to defeat. But it will allow the Democrats to run on the platform that they are the party of sensible gun control measures, a position that tends to please both Democrats and independent voters. (Z)
Heck Wins Nevada Senatorial Primary
The Democratic Senate seat most in danger is the one Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is vacating. His hand-picked choice to replace him, former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Masto Cortez, easily won her primary against an unknown challenger Tuesday. The real battle was on the Republican side, however, and there Rep. Joe Heck (R-NV) easily defeated challenger Sharron Angle 65% to 23%, with minor candidates getting the rest. In 2010, Angle won a bitter senatorial primary against establishment favorite Sue Lowden but was defeated by Reid in the general election. (V)
Back to the main page