The seventh, and last, GOP candidates' debate to be held before actual ballots are cast will take place in Des Moines tonight. Fox News and Google will co-host, and Megyn Kelly will moderate (as you may have heard). She will be assisted in that task by Bret Baier and Chris Wallace, and will be joined on stage by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Ben Carson, Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), Jeb Bush, Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). Donald Trump is also invited, but insists he will not be present, and will instead host a fundraising event for veterans, to be broadcast on CNN. This is, of course, the biggest of several story lines for Thursday night:
The JV debate gets going at 7:00 EST, with the varsity taking the stage at 9:00. It will be broadcast on Fox News and on the channel's streaming platforms, while Google is providing an experimental platform that will allow the campaigns to post materials in real time. There's no link for that project yet; the search engine is instructing users to search for "debate" Thursday afternoon/evening. Once the debate is over, it's 90 hours and counting until Iowans head to the caucus locations. (Z & V)
On a taped interview on Hardball, Hillary Clinton said yesterday that she would be willing to participate in the New Hampshire debate proposed by MSNBC provided that DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz changed her mind and approved it.
Sanders responded to Clinton late yesterday by saying that he is OK with the New Hampshire debate under certain conditions. First, there must be debates in March, April, and May. Second, no more debates on Fridays, Saturdays, or holidays. Third, all debates must include Martin O'Malley. Sanders, who is always a bit grumpy, is now becoming a bit trumpy as well, insisting it is his way or not at all. We'll soon know if it works. (V)
Donald Trump talks about veterans so much that you would think (1) he had once served in the Armed Forces and (2) he, rather than Bernie Sanders, was a member of the Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs. Neither is true, of course. In lieu of debating tonight, he is going to raise money for veterans. Now the Ted Cruz super PACs are calling his bluff. They are offering to donate $1.5 million to veterans charities if Trump will debate Cruz one-on-one. or "mano y mano" as Cruz put it. As to the moderators of the proposed debate, Cruz suggested conservative radio hosts Mark Levin, Sean Hannity, and Rush Limbaugh. Cruz also said that if Donald is scared not only of Megyn Kelly, but also of Mark, Sean, and Rush, he was OK with a town hall meeting in which ordinary Iowans asked the questions. He also said Trump would get half the tickets to distribute to his supporters and he would get the other half for his supporters.
This is another example of Cruz's razor-sharp mind in action. If Trump accepts, it will define the race as a two-man contest between Cruz and Trump, basically wiping out all the competition in one fell swoop. If Trump refuses, Cruz is going to taunt him for months about being a coward and afraid of women and even conservative talkers. (V)
If you are a Democrat (and old enough), do you remember Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis, and Bill Clinton? If you are a Republican (and old enough), do you remember Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney? Guess what? All of them lost the Iowa caucuses yet went on to grab their party's nomination. So if Iowa isn't very good at picking winners, why does it get so much attention?
Well, it is first, of course, but it actually has an excellent—no, make that a perfect—track record at showing who the losers are. No candidate who finished below fourth has ever gone on to get the nomination and only twice (Clinton in 1992 and McCain in 2008) has a fourth-place finisher ever gotten the nod. Since the Democrats have only three candidates left, none of them have to worry about finishing fourth or lower. But the Republicans have 11 or 12 candidates (depending on whether Jim Gilmore has quietly dropped out and no one noticed). Seven or eight of those are going to finish fifth or lower. Those seven or eight would do the Republican Party a great favor if on Wednesday morning they all called it quits since they have virtually no chance after such a poor showing. But politicians' egos being what they are, many will soldier on until their last penny has been spent. Later on, if Trump or Cruz is the nominee, they may wonder how it happened. A good part of the explanation will be that people who clearly had been rejected by the voters refused to give up. (V)
A new ABC/WaPo poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by 19 points. Here are the numbers.
| | ||
| Rank | Candidate | Pct |
| 1 | Hillary Clinton | 55% |
| 2 | Bernie Sanders | 36% |
| 3 | Martin O'Malley | 4% |
Sanders is catching up to her. In the previous poll he was at 28%. However, on every issue except bank regulation, Democrats trust Clinton more than Sanders. On bank regulation, Sanders edges her out 48% to 42%. But keep in mind that there is no national primary, so where the votes are distributed matters a lot. (V)
No, Bernie Sanders is not gay and Paul isn't going to be facing Sanders in the presidential race in November. Paul is going to drop out soon, probably after New Hampshire, and go back to the fight to keep his Senate seat. Unlike Marco Rubio, who clearly hates being a senator and doesn't bother to vote there much, Paul likes his job and has missed only 1% of the votes as of October.
Paul's opponent in his Senate reelection race is almost certainly going to be Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, a wealthy businessman-turned-politician who is openly gay. Before attaining elected office in 2006, he was CEO of the family construction business, which specializes in designing and constructing extremely large buildings, such as automotive plants and distribution centers. It is in the top 20 design-build companies in the country. Gray has a long track record of creating jobs, which will be the focus of his campaign against Paul, a former ophthalmologist. Gray was elected mayor of Lexington in 2010 and reelected in 2014. (V)