A new Quinnipiac University national poll still has Donald Trump on top, but with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) moving up while Ben Carson has dropped significantly. Everyone else is down in the weeds. Here are the numbers. The fourth column is the change since the last Quinnipiac poll.
Rank | Candidate | Pct | Change |
1 | Donald Trump | 27% | +3% |
2 | Marco Rubio | 17% | +3% |
3 | Ted Cruz | 16% | +3% |
3 | Ben Carson | 16% | -7% |
5 | Jeb Bush | 5% | +1% |
6 | Carly Fiorina | 3% | +0% |
7 | Rand Paul | 2% | +0% |
7 | Chris Christie | 2% | -1% |
7 | John Kasich | 2% | -1% |
10 | Mike Huckabee | 1% | +0% |
Lindsey Graham | <1% | ||
George Pataki | <1% | ||
Jim Gilmore | <1% | ||
Rick Santorum | <1% |
With a margin of error of 3.8%, Carson is the only one to move an amount outside the margin of error. His general (and admitted) lack of knowledge about foreign policy is probably catching up with him. Republicans want a strong Commander-in-chief and that is simply not Carson's strong suit. (V)
It's hardly news any more, but there was another mass shooting yesterday, this time in San Bernadino, California. Fourteen people died and another 17 were injured. Some of the presidential candidates reacted on Twitter, as follows:
DEMOCRATSSo what's the conclusion? The Democrats want to take action and pass new laws that might stop crazy people from obtaining guns. Donald Trump wants to bless the police. All the other Republicans want to pray although none specify even approximately what they are asking God to do. Usually when you pray you have one or more requests you would like God to fulfill. Do they want Him to directly intervene and prevent crazy people from getting guns, so Congress doesn't have to? Not one of the Republicans offered anything concrete other than urging people to pray but not saying what for.
The New York Daily News, a very conservative newspaper, ran the front page shown at the right today. Click it for a larger image. Tim Kreider writing in The Week points out that there is a standard template for dealing with mass shootings. Here are the items expected of everyone:
Kreider cannot imagine a catastrophe sufficiently ghastly that anything will ever change. (V) |
The Washington Post has obtained a secret memo in which the head of the NRSC advises Republican senatorial candidates what they should do and say in the event Donald Trump is the Republican presidential nominee. Unlike all the tweets about San Bernadino, Republicans are not advised to hide under their desks and pray. The candidates are advised to adopt his tactics, issues, and approaches, including how they dress and use Twitter. They should also pretend they are genuine and beyond the reach of the special interests.
The memo does not explain how, say, a three-term senator up to his ears in special-interest money is going to convince anyone that he is an outsider who is not beholden to anyone and who is prepared to burn the place down. One area candidates are advised not to mimic Trump is attacking women. The memo even suggests some visuals for ads, for example, a farmer removing a rotten tree stump so he can plow the field. Although that would implicitly compare the Senate to a rotten tree stump, it would probably better not to be too explicit about the comparison. (V)
A lot of money has already been spent on TV ads, both by candidates and by their super PACS, but it is not always having much effect. By far the biggest spenders are Jeb Bush and his super PAC, but the candidate is still languishing in the single digits. Here is how much each candidate and allied super PACs have spent up to this week. (V)
Candidate | Total TV spending |
Jeb Bush | $28.9 million |
Marco Rubio | $10.6 million |
Hillary Clinton | $9.7 million |
John Kasich | $8.0 million |
Chris Christie | $6.4 million |
Bernie Sanders | $4.9 million |
Ben Carson | $2.0 million |
Rand Paul | $0.9 million |
Ted Cruz | $0.7 million |
Donald Trump | $0.2 million |
Well, not everybody—just the people who know him. According to Frank Bruni, in an op-ed for the New York Times, the list includes Cruz' Senate colleagues, his compatriots on the Bush 2000 campaign team, and even his college roommate Craig Mazin, who says, "I would rather have anybody else be the president of the United States. Anyone. I would rather pick somebody from the phone book."
Bruni acknowledges Cruz' strengths, including his keen intellect and tireless work ethic, but also identifies the personality traits that alienate, well, pretty much everyone. These include arrogance, abrasiveness, willingness to place himself above the team, self-involvement, and a tendency towards gratuitous personal attacks. As one associate jokes, "Why do people take such an instant dislike to Ted Cruz? It just saves time." Bruni concludes that this kind of personality is not well suited to the Presidency, and it's hard to argue with him. (Z)
On Monday, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) declared that "The overwhelming majority of violent criminals are Democrats." The media quickly pounced on the statement, with some outlets—including Politifact and the Washington Post—quickly debunking the assertion. Others, such as CNN, pressed Cruz as to his source for this "information." Now, everybody knows what his source is, namely the transitive property. Cruz reasoned that most violent criminals are minorities, and most minorities are Democrats, and therefore most violent criminals are Democrats. Cruz cannot admit that, however, so instead he said he made a "reasonable inference" and cited an analysis by Marc Meredith and Michael Morse entitled "Do Voting Rights Notification Laws Increase Ex-Felon Turnout?" The study was published in the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science; undoubtedly the Senator is a voracious reader of that publication, which has a circulation around 1,500.
On Wednesday, Meredith and Morse themselves spoke up, and declared flatly that Cruz had misrepresented their study, that the data do not support his "reasonable inference," and that to the extent that a conclusion can be reached, the data suggest that violent criminals are fairly evenly divided in their political loyalty. They also observe, as did we, that the majority of violent felons aren't members of any party, because they are disenfranchised. Presumably, Cruz will soon be canceling his lifetime subscription to Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. (Z)
Firebrand congressman Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Marco Rubio. He is reputed to be a micromanager and difficult to get along with. Evidence of the latter is the recent departure of his campaign manager, deputy campaign manager, and senior advisor. Generally, it is not a good sign when the entire top tier of a candidate's staff leaves in a huff. Interestingly enough, the DSCC is undoubtedly overjoyed that his campaign is a mess. He is unpopular with the party leadership and seen as a far weaker general-election candidate than his primary rival, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL), a young moderate and heir to a construction-industry fortune. (V)
Below is our December 2015 list of 2016 Republican presidential candidates in roughly the order of most likely to be nominated to least likely. The strengths and weaknesses of each one in the primaries are listed. Note that what is a strength in the primaries may be a weakness in the general election and vice versa. For example, Jeb Bush's wife is a Mexican-American, which may hurt him in the primaries but help him in the general election.
Candidate | Advantages in Primaries | Disadvantages in Primaries |
Marco Rubio |
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Ted Cruz |
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Donald Trump |
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Jeb Bush |
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John Kasich |
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Chris Christie |
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Carly Fiorina |
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Ben Carson |
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Rand Paul |
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Mike Huckabee |
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Rick Santorum |
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Lindsey Graham |
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George Pataki |
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Jim Gilmore |
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