Republican Presidential Candidates

Below is the Oct. 1, 2015 list of 2016 Republican presidential candidates in roughly the the order of most likely to be nominated to least likely. The strengths and weaknesses of each one in the primaries are listed. Note that what is a strength in the primaries may be a weakness in the general election and vice versa. For example, Jeb Bush's wife is a Mexican-American, which may hurt him in the primaries but help him in the general election.

Candidate Advantages in Primaries Disadvantages in Primaries
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
  • American-dream type biography
  • Young and telegenic, sort of like John Kennedy
  • Very charismatic and likable
  • From the mother of all swing states
  • First-term senator
  • Something of a lightweight on policy
  • Supported Senate immigration bill before he opposed it
  • Latino in a Latino-unfriendly party
Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush
  • Establishment loves him
  • Seems like the most electable candidate
  • Executive experience galore
  • Huge, battle-tested field operation
  • Also from the mother of all swing states
  • More money than Uncle Scrooge
  • Grassroots hates him
  • Weak campaigner, keeps inserting foot in mouth
  • Is going to have to defend his unpopular brother
  • Wrong positions on immigration & Common Core
  • Married to a Latina
  • Barbara Bush: "We've had enough Bushes"
  • How did he earn his millions in the past 10 years?
John Kasich
John Kasich
  • Could be establishment fallback if Bush stumbles
  • Twice elected in swing state of Ohio
  • From the Midwest, which could help in Iowa caucuses
  • Would win some Democrats in general election
  • Not well known
  • Running on competence, not ideology
  • Said St. Peter likes poor people
  • Supported Medicaid expansion in Ohio
  • Supports Common Core
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • Called Mitch McConnell a liar
  • Tea party darling
  • Young, fiery, and very conservative
  • Surprisingly good at fund raising
  • Excellent speaker and debater
  • Well organized in the South, site of many Super Tuesday primaries
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • First-term senator
  • Masterminded the 2013 government shutdown
  • Maybe too much of a firebrand for some voters
  • Latino in a Latino-unfriendly party
  • Why did his PAC give $500,000 to Carly Fiorina's PAC?
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
  • Loved by "poke-'em-in-the-eye" voters
  • Extremely strong candidate so far
  • Actually created thousands of jobs
  • Can't be bribed by anyone, could self-fund
  • Says things no one else dares to say
  • Sort of endorsed by Sarah Palin
  • Not a politician
  • Probably the most famous Republican candidate
  • Would be crushed by Clinton
  • Establishment will do anything to stop him
  • Used to be fairly liberal
  • Not exactly sure where the Middle East is
  • Demeaned John McCain's war record
  • Made sexist remark to Megyn Kelly
  • His hair gets more attention than Hillary's
  • Probably the most infamous Republican candidate
Carly Fiorina
Carly Fiorina
  • Ran a Fortune 500 company
  • Can attack Clinton without being called sexist
  • Took on liberal icon Barbara Boxer in 2010
  • Self-made multimillionaire
  • Could self fund in the primaries for a while
  • Good knowledge of the issues and good debater
  • Might attract Republican women as anti-Hillary
  • Not a politician
  • Was fired from a Fortune 500 Company
  • Got $20 million severance when fired
  • Was crushed by Barbara Boxer in 2010
  • No political experience
Ben Carson
Ben Carson
  • Devoted following
  • Polling amazingly well so far
  • A more polite version of Donald Trump
  • Not a politician
  • Married to the same woman for 40 years
  • Allows racist voters to say they are not racist
  • Willing to question orthodoxy...
  • Prone to gaffes
  • He's black in a nearly all white party
  • Never held public office
  • Is unacceptable to establishment
  • Not a dynamic speaker or debater
  • Not politically savvy
  • ...or just kooky?
Chris Christie
Chris Christie
  • Aggressive character
  • Ran the RGA well; popular with governors
  • Won election twice in a blue state
  • #3 with establishment after Bush and Kasich
  • Would probably bring in some Democrats
  • Polling badly in home state
  • Hugged Obama
  • Has only recently "discovered" he's ultraconservative
  • Last fat President was William Howard Taft; but White House bathtub is bigger now
  • We'll cross that bridge when we come to it--if it is open
Rand Paul
Rand Paul
  • Could bring in new Republican voters
  • Inherits his father's zealots
  • Dislikes Big Government spying on people
  • Doesn't like wars
  • Doesn't support "Israel good, Arabs bad" policy
  • More of a libertarian than a conservative
  • Was cheered at UC Berkeley
  • Establishment is lukewarm on him
  • First-term senator
Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee
  • Good sense of humor and very likable
  • Ordained Baptist minister
  • Southerner in a party whose base is the South
  • Well known due to 2008 run and Fox show
  • Economic populist
  • As Arkansas governor raised taxes repeatedly
  • Very poor fundraiser
  • Unpopular outside the South
  • Did badly in 2008 against a much weaker field
  • Appeals only to evangelicals
Bobby Jindal
Bobby Jindal
  • Is great at tossing red meat to the base
  • Tons of executive experience
  • Might bring in some minority voters
  • Can perform exorcisms when needed
  • Disastrous SOTU reply in 2009
  • Not a dynamic speaker
  • Indian-American in a nearly all white party
  • Still "Bobby" at 44 (but Bobby Kennedy did it)
  • Running out of money
Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum
  • Been around the track before
  • Won Iowa caucuses in 2012
  • Very strong social conservative
  • Comes from a big blue state
  • Didn't win in a much weaker 2012 field
  • One-trick pony: only social conservatism
  • Tends to lecture people and not likable
  • Voters in that big blue state tossed him overboard
Lindsey Graham
Lindsey Graham
  • Knowledgeable on foreign policy
  • Retired Air Force colonel
  • Talks more about Benghazi than anyone
  • Kind of folksy
  • From the South
  • Base hates him
  • Lifelong bachelor in family values party
  • Short and dresses like a used-car salesman
George Pataki
George Pataki
  • Was elected governor of a blue state three times
  • George Who?
Jim Gilmore
Jim Gilmore
  • Nobody hates him
  • Nobody ever heard of him
  • Lost 2008 Senate race to Mark Warner by 31 points
  • British bookies give the ineligible Arnold Schwarzenegger better odds