New Senate: DEM 47 Ties 1 GOP 52
New polls: CO GA IA KS ME NC NH NJ
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: AK AR CO IA LA MT SD WV
Previous | Next
Election Day Is Finally Here
The day some people were looking forward to and others were dreading is finally here. Most poll aggregators, including us, think the odds favor the Republicans to take over the Senate, but its not a done deal quite yet. In addition to the Senate races, there are 36 gubernatorial races, many of them hotly contested, 435 House races, and a plethora of contests for state legislatures and local offices.
Poll closing times vary from 6 P.M. EST to 1 A.M. EST. Daily Kos has a great map showing the closing times around the country and what to watch for at each hour. The trouble is for all the exciting races, nothing will be known for hours and in some cases for days until all the absentee ballots and provisional ballots have been counted. Here is a brief rundown of some key races.
6:00 P.M. EST- Kentucky. Mitch McConnell R) vs. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) is the big one here
- Florida. The big one here is the gubernatorial slugfest of Gov. Rick Scott (R) vs. Charlie Crist (D)
- Georgia. Two races: Nathan Deal (R) vs. Jason Carter (D) for governor and David Perdue (R) vs. Michelle Nunn (D) for senator
- New Hampshire. Shaheen will probably beat Brown, but it could be close
- Virginia. If Ed Gillespie even comes close to Mark Warner, Democrats will be slaughtered nationwide
- North Carolina. If Sen. Kay Hagan (D) loses, it's curtains for the Democrats
- Connecticut. Unpopular Gov. Dan Malloy (D) is in a rematch with Tom Foley (R). It's a tossup
- Illinois. Unpopular Gov. Pat Quinn (D) is in a competitive race with a mini-Mitt, Bruce Rauner (R)
- Kansas. Both the Republican governor and senator could lose, but they are not bellwethers as both are unpopular
- Maine. The three-way gubernatorial race could result in Gov. Paul LePage (R) being reelected with under 50%
- Michigan. Most likely Gov. Rick Snyder (R) will be reelected, but an upset by Mark Schauer (D) is possible
- Pennsylvania. Gov. Tom Corbett (R) will probably be crushed. If not, the Democrats will be crying all night
- Arkansas. A victory by Sen. Mark Pryor (D) would be a huge morale booster for the Democrats, but it is unlikely
- Colorado. Unless Sen. Mark Udall (D) wins, the Democrats can forget holding the Senate
- Louisiana. Watch the margin between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) for a hint about the runoff
- Wisconsin. If Gov. Scott Walker (R) goes down, the Republicans will have lost one of their best 2016 prospects
- Iowa. The big prize here is the Senate seat. This is a must-win contest for the Democrats
- Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, and Hawaii close then, but there are no nationally significant races here
- The Alaska Senate race is crucial for the Democrats, but the results may not be in for weeks
December 2 is the date for the expected gubernatorial runoff in Georgia with Jason Carter (D) vs. Nathan Deal (R).
December 6 is the date for the expected Louisiana runoff between Mary Landrieu (D) and Bill Cassidy (R).
January 6 is the date for the expected Georgia senatorial runoff between Michelle Nunn (D) and David Perdue (R).
Republicans Likely to Win Senate
The map shows our final predictions. It is more likely than not that the Republicans will win the Senate, probably with around 52 seats. If independent Greg Orman wins and caucuses with the Republicans, they will have 53 seats. Still, elections always have surprises.
Today's Senate Polls
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | I | I % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Colorado | Mark Udall* | 43% | Cory Gardner | 45% | Oct 28 | Nov 02 | Quinnipiac U. | ||
| Georgia | Michelle Nunn | 44% | David Perdue | 47% | Oct 30 | Nov 02 | SurveyUSA | ||
| Georgia | Michelle Nunn | 45% | David Perdue | 46% | Nov 01 | Nov 03 | PPP | ||
| Georgia | Michelle Nunn | 45% | David Perdue | 48% | Oct 30 | Nov 02 | Insider Advantage | ||
| Georgia | Michelle Nunn | 46% | David Perdue | 46% | Oct 30 | Oct 31 | PPP | ||
| Georgia | Michelle Nunn | 46% | David Perdue | 50% | Nov 02 | Nov 02 | Landmark Comm. | ||
| Iowa | Bruce Braley | 45% | Joni Ernst | 48% | Nov 01 | Nov 03 | PPP | ||
| Iowa | Bruce Braley | 47% | Joni Ernst | 47% | Oct 28 | Nov 02 | Quinnipiac U. | ||
| Iowa | Bruce Braley | 47% | Joni Ernst | 48% | Oct 30 | Oct 31 | PPP | ||
| Kansas | Pat Roberts* | 46% | Greg Orman | 47% | Nov 01 | Nov 03 | PPP | ||
| Kansas | Pat Roberts* | 47% | Greg Orman | 46% | Oct 30 | Oct 31 | PPP | ||
| Maine | Shenna Bellows | 37% | Susan Collins* | 57% | Oct 31 | Nov 02 | Maine Res. Ctr. | ||
| North Carolina | Kay Hagan* | 46% | Thom Tillis | 44% | Sean Haugh (L) | 5% | Nov 01 | Nov 03 | PPP |
| North Carolina | Kay Hagan* | 46% | Thom Tillis | 45% | Sean Haugh (L) | 4% | Oct 30 | Oct 31 | PPP |
| New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen* | 49% | Scott Brown | 47% | Oct 30 | Oct 31 | PPP | ||
| New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen* | 50% | Scott Brown | 48% | Nov 01 | Nov 03 | PPP | ||
| New Jersey | Cory Booker* | 54% | Jeff Bell | 40% | Oct 30 | Nov 02 | Monmouth U. |
* Denotes incumbent
Back to the main page