News from the Votemaster

Larry Sabato Calls Senate for Republican

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is calling the Senate for the Republicans, even though the polls haven't even opened on election day yet, let alone closed. Sabato is simply looking at the polls and sees likely Republican wins in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Absent any losses, that would be enough no matter what happens in the other states, and some of those could go Republican as well.

Based on fundamentals, he sees five reasons why the Republicans are likely to do very well on Nov. 4:

1. Obama's troubles. An unpopular President weighs down his party, especially in the 6th year
2. A great map. This is by far the reddest of the three Senate classes
3. Partisan polarization. Democrats just can't win in red states and vice versa
4. Democratic retirements. Too many red-state Democrats retired, creating open-seat races
5. No crazy Republicans. Tea party Republicans did not win the primary in any competitive state

Democrats Playing the Race Card in the South

In a last-minute attempt to jolt blacks into voting on Tuesday, the Democrats are openly using racial messages, such as one on a black radio station in North Carolina accusing Republican senatorial candidate Thom Tillis of advocating the kind of gun laws that led to the murder of Trayvon Martin. In Georgia they are talking about preventing another Ferguson. It features two black children holding signs that say "Don't shoot."

The messages are being carefully targeted in ways that make it unlikely that many whites will see or hear them. Increasing the black vote is critical to Democratic hopes in races all over the South.

Legal Battles in Georgia Very Likely

After a judge ruled that Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp didn't have to hurry up and process about 40,000 new voter registrations collected by the New Georgia Project, which focuses on registering minority voters, these voters will have to cast provisional ballots. With close races for both governor and senator in Georgia, court cases over these ballots are a virtual certainty.

Republican Governors Association Donors Get Special Access

Many Republican donors believe that the 2016 Republican presidential nominee will be a governor and they are willing to pony up big time to get access to the governors before the crowd rushes in. This early interest has allowed the RGA to raise $140 million this cycle, far more than the DGA's $75 million. In particular, wealthy executives who make large annual donations get to meet the governors up close at quarterly policy sessions. This initiative, called the Executive Roundtable Program, has raised $50 million this year. By inspecting the governors up close, the program members can determine where to place their bets in 2016, or in their terms, where the highest return on investment is.

In addition to all the sniffing, the executives all realize that nothing important is going to come out of Washington until at least Jan. 2017 but often there are things states can do for them, such as crippling unions. From a return-on-investment point of view, these state initiatives can be very valuable and the amount of money involved is vastly smaller than what is needed to be a player at the national level.

Today's Senate Polls

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
Arkansas	Mark Pryor*	36%	Tom Cotton	49%			Oct 21	Oct 27	U. of Arkansas
Arkansas	Mark Pryor*	44%	Tom Cotton	51%			Oct 27	Oct 29	Rasmussen
Colorado	Mark Udall*	39%	Cory Gardner	46%			Oct 22	Oct 27	Quinnipiac U.
Colorado	Mark Udall*	44%	Cory Gardner	46%			Oct 27	Oct 29	SurveyUSA
Colorado	Mark Udall*	48%	Cory Gardner	48%			Oct 28	Oct 29	PPP
Georgia	Michelle Nunn	47%	David Perdue	47%			Oct 29	Oct 29	Landmark Comm.
Iowa	Bruce Braley	45%	Joni Ernst	45%			Oct 23	Oct 29	IPSOS
Kentucky	Alison L.-Grimes	43%	Mitch McConnell*	48%			Oct 25	Oct 29	SurveyUSA
Louisiana	Mary Landrieu*	43%	Bill Cassidy	51%			Oct 11	Oct 24	U. of New Orleans
Massachusetts	Ed Markey*	49%	Brian Herr	34%			Oct 27	Oct 29	Suffolk U.
Maine	Shenna Bellows	32%	Susan Collins*	64%			Oct 23	Oct 29	IPSOS
North Carolina	Kay Hagan*	45%	Thom Tillis	41%			Oct 21	Oct 25	Elon U.
North Carolina	Kay Hagan*	47%	Thom Tillis	46%			Oct 28	Oct 29	Rasmussen
North Carolina	Kay Hagan*	47%	Thom Tillis	46%	Sean Haugh (L)	4%	Oct 28	Oct 29	PPP
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen*	49%	Scott Brown	49%			Oct 27	Oct 29	ARG
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen*	50%	Scott Brown	42%			Oct 22	Oct 26	U. of New Hampshire
Oregon	Jeff Merkley*	53%	Monica Wehby	32%			Oct 23	Oct 27	SurveyUSA

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster