News from the Votemaster

Voters Expect Republicans to Win the Senate

Over time, some pollsters have come to believe that the question "Who do you expect will win?" has more predictive value than "Who will you vote for?" If, for example, a person is a Democrat in an area full of Republican yard signs or vice versa, the "Who do you expect to win?" question takes into account local information that the voter has about friends, neighbors, and so on. Using this question, for example,, Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) is in better shape than polls indicate. If the "expectation" survey holds, the Republicans are likely to get 52 or 53 seats in the Senate.

People Really Dislike Congress

It is not exactly news, but yet another poll shows that Americans don't like Congress much. Half of all Americans strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing. About 30% approve of the job the Democrats are doing and 25% approve of the job the Republicans are doing. On the whole, most voters like what their own party is doing though. Democratic voters approve of the Democrats in Congress 56-42; Republican voters approve of Republicans in Congress 55-38.

Kentucky Newspapers Endorse Alison Lundergan Grimes

The two biggest and most influential newspapers in Kentucky have both endorsed Alison Lundergan Grimes in her race against Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). The Louisville Courier-Journal wrote: "We urge voters to choose the future and elect Alison Lundergan Grimes." The Lexington Herald Leader wrote: "Kentuckians can send a powerful message on Nov. 4 and carve out a better future by retiring McConnell and making Grimes their senator."

Newspaper endorsements don't carry anywhere near the weight they used to. Nevertheless, in a race as close as this one, if the endorsements sway even one percent of the voters, it could matter. To some extent, McConnell made it easy for them to endorse his opponent as he refused to sit down with their editorial boards and answer their questions, as Grimes did.

Unusually Many Senate Races Are Up for Grabs

In 2008, political guru Charlie Cook said six races were tossups at this point in the cycle. In 2010, it was seven. This year Cook says there are 10 tossups. While this situation is exciting for political junkies, it puts the party committees in a bind: where to spend precious dollars? Chris Cillizza, Aaron Blake, and Sean Sullivan rate the 13 states most likely to flip as follows, from most likely to least likely: Montana (D), West Virginia (D), South Dakota (D), Arkansas (D), Louisiana (D), Alaska (D), Colorado (D), Kansas (R), Iowa (D), Georgia (R), North Carolina (D), New Hampshire (D), and Kentucky (R). The (D) or (R) indicates the party that occupies the seat now.

Marist polls released yesterday put five states in the "too close to call" category. They are: North Carolina, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, and Kansas.

Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee Are on a Collision Course

Evangelical leaders realize that they got Republican presidential candidates in 2008 and 2012 who basically ignored them, in large part because they didn't settle on a single candidate to work for during the primaries. They are determined to avoid that fate in 2016. In a series of clandestine meetings over the past 2 months, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee have been auditioning for the role of standard bearer for the evangelicals. Of course understanding the problem doesn't mean a solution is at hand. Cruz supporters question Huckabee's fiscal record. Huckabee's supporters doubt Cruz' ability to connect with religious voters. In addition, if former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum joins the mix, some religious leaders will go for him. In other words, while all evangelical leaders realize that having a single candidate would greatly increase their influence, they aren't very close to having one.

Jeb Bush More Than Likely to Run According to His Son

The eldest son of former Florida governor Jeb Bush yesterday said that his father is seriously thinking of running for President in 2016. He added that if he had been asked a few years ago, he would have said it was unlikely. Bush would face serious obstacles if he were to decide to run. To many Republicans, his policies on immigration and the Common Core educational standards are anathema. However, in the absence of Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), many large donors would shower money on him.

The other Bushes--the ones who count, Bush 41 and Bush 43, are all in favor of Bush 45. George H.W. Bush always thought Jeb was the smartest of his children, with ambition to spare. On the other hand, Bush vs. Clinton would sound a lot like 1992, and the Bushes know how that one ended.

Tech Companies Learning about Politics the Hard Way

When big tech companies in Silicon Valley like Facebook, Google, and Yahoo! started to get involved in politics, they didn't realize how tricky it could be. Initially they teamed up with ALEC, a conservative group that aligns with their views of immigration. But they soon discovered that ALEC also opposes renewable energy, which got them into hot water with many of their executives and employees back in California. Long-time political operatives are very cynical. They will cozy up to anyone if that helps get a certain bill through Congress, and then switch sides on the next issue. This kind of horse trading and back stabbing is par for the course in Washington, but it is new to the tech giants who are just getting started there.

Pentagon Watching Development of Online Voting Carefully

A somewhat obscure Pentagon office has spent $85 million since 2009 on programs to help overseas troops vote. Some states are experimenting with what is essentially online voting, a practice that virtually all security experts say is vulnerable to hacking. It also violates federal law. As a consequence of the movement to online voting, the Pentagon's inspector general. Jon Rymer, is taking a close look at the systems already in place. It is a slippery slope from letting overseas voters print absentee ballots and then sign them and mail them in to full electronic voting.

Today's Senate Polls

Here is a massive poll dump from YouGov and Marist.

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
Alaska	Mark Begich*	44%	Dan Sullivan	48%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Arkansas	Mark Pryor*	42%	Tom Cotton	47%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Arkansas	Mark Pryor*	43%	Tom Cotton	45%			Oct 19	Oct 23	Marist Coll.
Colorado	Mark Udall*	45%	Cory Gardner	46%			Oct 18	Oct 22	Marist Coll.
Colorado	Mark Udall*	47%	Cory Gardner	46%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Delaware	Chris Coons*	54%	Kevin Wade	36%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Georgia	Michelle Nunn	44%	David Perdue	47%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Hawaii	Brian Schatz*	70%	Cam Cavasso	18%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Iowa	Bruce Braley	44%	Joni Ernst	44%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Iowa	Bruce Braley	46%	Joni Ernst	49%			Oct 18	Oct 22	Marist Coll.
Idaho	Nels Mitchell	30%	Jim Risch*	61%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Illinois	Dick Durbin*	52%	Jim Oberweis	39%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Kansas			Pat Roberts*	42%	Greg Orman	38%	Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Kansas		%	Pat Roberts*	44%	Greg Orman	45%	Oct 18	Oct 22	Marist Coll.
Kentucky	Alison L-Grimes	39%	Mitch McConnell*	45%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Louisiana	Mary Landrieu*	42%	Bill Cassidy	46%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Massachusetts	Ed Markey*	54%	Brian Herr	32%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Maine	Shenna Bellows	30%	Susan Collins*	65%			Oct 15	Oct 21	U. of New Hampshire
Maine	Shenna Bellows	35%	Susan Collins*	54%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Michigan	Gary Peters	49%	Terri Land	41%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Michigan	Gary Peters	51%	Terri Land	42%			Oct 20	Oct 22	Rasmussen
Minnesota	Al Franken*	48%	Mike McFadden	39%			Oct 20	Oct 22	Mason Dixon
Minnesota	Al Franken*	51%	Mike McFadden	41%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Mississippi	Travis Childers	28%	Thad Cochran*	50%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Montana	Amanda Curtis	38%	Steve Daines	56%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
North Carolina	Kay Hagan*	43%	Thom Tillis	43%	Sean Haugh	7%	Oct 19	Oct 23	Marist Coll.
North Carolina	Kay Hagan*	44%	Thom Tillis	41%	Sean Haugh	2%	Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Nebraska	Dave Domina	30%	Ben Sasse	59%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen*	46%	Scott Brown	41%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
New Jersey	Cory Booker*	51%	Jeff Bell	39%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
New Mexico	Tom Udall*	52%	Allen Weh	36%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Oklahoma	Matt Silverstein	27%	James Inhofe*	63%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Oregon	Jeff Merkley*	51%	Monica Wehby	39%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Rhode Island	Jack Reed*	65%	Mark Zaccaria	20%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
South Carolina	Brad Hutto	28%	Lindsey Graham*	43%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
South Dakota	Rick Weiland	25%	Mike Rounds	38%	Larry Pressler	17%	Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
South Dakota	Rick Weiland	29%	Mike Rounds	43%	Larry Pressler	16%	Oct 19	Oct 23	Marist Coll.
Tennessee	Gordon Ball	33%	Lamar Alexander*	55%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Texas	David Alameel	35%	John Cornyn*	57%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Virginia	Mark Warner*	49%	Ed Gillespie	39%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
West Virginia	Natalie Tennant	34%	Shelley M. Capito	56%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov
Wyoming	Charlie Hardy	27%	Michael Enzi*	67%			Oct 16	Oct 23	YouGov

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster