News from the Votemaster

Election Day Is Finally Here

The day some people were looking forward to and others were dreading is finally here. Most poll aggregators, including us, think the odds favor the Republicans to take over the Senate, but its not a done deal quite yet. In addition to the Senate races, there are 36 gubernatorial races, many of them hotly contested, 435 House races, and a plethora of contests for state legislatures and local offices.

Poll closing times vary from 6 P.M. EST to 1 A.M. EST. Daily Kos has a great map showing the closing times around the country and what to watch for at each hour. The trouble is for all the exciting races, nothing will be known for hours and in some cases for days until all the absentee ballots and provisional ballots have been counted. Here is a brief rundown of some key races.

6:00 P.M. EST

• Kentucky. Mitch McConnell R) vs. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) is the big one here

7:00 P.M. EST

• Florida. The big one here is the gubernatorial slugfest of Gov. Rick Scott (R) vs. Charlie Crist (D)
• Georgia. Two races: Nathan Deal (R) vs. Jason Carter (D) for governor and David Perdue (R) vs. Michelle Nunn (D) for senator
• New Hampshire. Shaheen will probably beat Brown, but it could be close
• Virginia. If Ed Gillespie even comes close to Mark Warner, Democrats will be slaughtered nationwide

7:30 P.M. EST

• North Carolina. If Sen. Kay Hagan (D) loses, it's curtains for the Democrats

8:00 P.M. EST

• Connecticut. Unpopular Gov. Dan Malloy (D) is in a rematch with Tom Foley (R). It's a tossup
• Illinois. Unpopular Gov. Pat Quinn (D) is in a competitive race with a mini-Mitt, Bruce Rauner (R)
• Kansas. Both the Republican governor and senator could lose, but they are not bellwethers as both are unpopular
• Maine. The three-way gubernatorial race could result in Gov. Paul LePage (R) being reelected with under 50%
• Michigan. Most likely Gov. Rick Snyder (R) will be reelected, but an upset by Mark Schauer (D) is possible
• Pennsylvania. Gov. Tom Corbett (R) will probably be crushed. If not, the Democrats will be crying all night

8:30 P.M. EST

• Arkansas. A victory by Sen. Mark Pryor (D) would be a huge morale booster for the Democrats, but it is unlikely

9:00 P.M. EST

• Colorado. Unless Sen. Mark Udall (D) wins, the Democrats can forget holding the Senate
• Louisiana. Watch the margin between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) for a hint about the runoff
• Wisconsin. If Gov. Scott Walker (R) goes down, the Republicans will have lost one of their best 2016 prospects

10:00 P.M. EST

• Iowa. The big prize here is the Senate seat. This is a must-win contest for the Democrats

11:00 P.M. EST

• Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, and Hawaii close then, but there are no nationally significant races here

1:00 A.M. EST

• The Alaska Senate race is crucial for the Democrats, but the results may not be in for weeks

December 2 is the date for the expected gubernatorial runoff in Georgia with Jason Carter (D) vs. Nathan Deal (R).

December 6 is the date for the expected Louisiana runoff between Mary Landrieu (D) and Bill Cassidy (R).

January 6 is the date for the expected Georgia senatorial runoff between Michelle Nunn (D) and David Perdue (R).

Republicans Likely to Win Senate

The map shows our final predictions. It is more likely than not that the Republicans will win the Senate, probably with around 52 seats. If independent Greg Orman wins and caucuses with the Republicans, they will have 53 seats. Still, elections always have surprises.

Today's Senate Polls

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
Colorado	Mark Udall*	43%	Cory Gardner	45%			Oct 28	Nov 02	Quinnipiac U.
Georgia	Michelle Nunn	44%	David Perdue	47%			Oct 30	Nov 02	SurveyUSA
Georgia	Michelle Nunn	45%	David Perdue	46%			Nov 01	Nov 03	PPP
Georgia	Michelle Nunn	45%	David Perdue	48%			Oct 30	Nov 02	Insider Advantage
Georgia	Michelle Nunn	46%	David Perdue	46%			Oct 30	Oct 31	PPP
Georgia	Michelle Nunn	46%	David Perdue	50%			Nov 02	Nov 02	Landmark Comm.
Iowa	Bruce Braley	45%	Joni Ernst	48%			Nov 01	Nov 03	PPP
Iowa	Bruce Braley	47%	Joni Ernst	47%			Oct 28	Nov 02	Quinnipiac U.
Iowa	Bruce Braley	47%	Joni Ernst	48%			Oct 30	Oct 31	PPP
Kansas			Pat Roberts*	46%	Greg Orman	47%	Nov 01	Nov 03	PPP
Kansas			Pat Roberts*	47%	Greg Orman	46%	Oct 30	Oct 31	PPP
Maine	Shenna Bellows	37%	Susan Collins*	57%			Oct 31	Nov 02	Maine Res. Ctr.
North Carolina	Kay Hagan*	46%	Thom Tillis	44%	Sean Haugh (L)	5%	Nov 01	Nov 03	PPP
North Carolina	Kay Hagan*	46%	Thom Tillis	45%	Sean Haugh (L)	4%	Oct 30	Oct 31	PPP
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen*	49%	Scott Brown	47%			Oct 30	Oct 31	PPP
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen*	50%	Scott Brown	48%			Nov 01	Nov 03	PPP
New Jersey	Cory Booker*	54%	Jeff Bell	40%			Oct 30	Nov 02	Monmouth U.

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster