News from the Votemaster

Perdue and Kingston Advance to Runoff in Georgia Senate Race

The Republican Party had a great day yesterday. The establishment struck back, and hard. In two states, Georgia and Kentucky, the Republicans were potentially at risk of losing Senate seats if tea party candidates won primaries against establishment candidates. It didn't happen. In Georgia, seven people ran for the Republican nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), who is retiring. Three were out-and-out tea party candidates, former secretary of state Karen Handel, Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-GA), and Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA). They came in third, fourth, and fifth, respectively. The top two finishers were wealthy businessman David Perdue, first cousin of former governor Sonny Perdue, and Rep. Jack Kingson (R-GA), who has represented southeast Georgia in the House for 11 terms. Two unknowns also were in the mix. In the final tally, Perdue received 31% of the vote with Kingston trailing at 26%. Handel, Gingrey, and Broun got 22%, 10%, and 10%, respectively. Perdue and Kingston will go man-to-man in the July 22 runoff. The winner of that contest will face Michelle Nunn, daughter of legendary Democratic senator Sam Nunn, in November, who won her primary easily,

The Georgia result mirrors the North Carolina Republican senatorial primary of two weeks ago. In Georgia, the three tea party candidates collectively got 42% of the vote. If two of them had dropped out in favor of the leader (Karen Handel), they would have had a candidate in the runoff. But since ego trumped ideology, they have nothing. In North Carolina it was the same story: the tea party candidates got 45% but because the vote was split, the establishment candidate, Thom Tillis, won outright and will not have to compete in a runoff. In past years, the tables were turned in many races, with a single tea party candidate winning races with multiple establishment candidates. This year the establishment tried very hard to avoid that fate in multiple states. The tea party, which is more loosely organized than the Republican leadership, has not yet learned that lesson. Besides, they do not have anyone like RNC chairman Reince Priebus who can call the shots.

The polls show that if Perdue wins the runoff, he would probably beat Nunn by 4 or 5 points and hold the seat for the Republicans. Kingston vs. Nunn would be closer. Against any of the tea party candidates, Nunn would actually have been a slight favorite. A key question now is what the 44% of the voters whose first choice didn't make it into the runoff will do. Will they vote with their hearts or with their heads? (Actually, they will vote with their hands, but that is just a detail.) Kingston is far more conservative than Perdue, but he also has a greater chance of losing the general election. Will the voters gamble and go for the guy they like, with the chance of losing the seat altogether, or play it safe with Perdue? No doubt this theme will dominate in the next two months.

McConnell Whips Bevin in Kentucky

The other state where the Republicans initially feared a tea party challenge was Kentucky, where minority leader Mitch McConnell is up for reelection. Here only one tea party candidate, Louisville businessman Matt Bevin, filed to run in the primary. McConnell, who is universally known in the state (but not so popular) and who has close to infinite money, crushed Bevin 60% to 36%. The Democratic nominee will be secretary of state Alison Lundergan Grimes, who got 76% of the vote in her primary.

Virtually all polls of McConnell vs. Grimes have shown it to be very close, largely because McConnell's personal approval rating in Kentucky is even lower than President Obama's. Also, Kentucky is not as Republican as states in the Deep South: six of the seven statewide officers, including the governor, are Democrats. The Democrats would dearly love to defeat McConnell, in part to get revenge for the Republicans breaking the gentleman's agreement the parties had about not going after each other's leaders. In 2004, the Republicans attacked and ultimated defeated minority leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota in a very bitter contest. The McConnell-Grimes races is going to be extraordinarily expensive, with tens of millions of dollars in outside money pouring into the state.

One peculiar aspect of the race is that the Affordable Care Act is unlikely to play any role in the general election because Gov. Steve Beshear (D-KY) set up one of the best-functioning exchanges in the country and also expanded Medicaid in the state. Over 400,000 Kentuckians signed up for insurance via the state' exchange, Kynect, and another 330,000 people qualify for the expanded Medicaid program. McConnell can hardly make the centerpiece of his campaign telling 700,000 voters he wants to take away their health insurance.

Other factors will play a role in this race. Grimes is young and relatively unknown. McConnell has connections all over the state, but so does Grimes' father, Jerry Lundergan, a former chairman of the Kentucky Democratic Party and good friend of Bill Clinton. McConnell currently has more money in the bank ($10 million to $5 million), but last time Bill Clinton showed up, Grimes raised $600,000 in one evening. Also, there are 500,000 more registered Democrats in Kentucky than registered Republicans, which explains why Democratic candidates for state office do much better than Democratic presidential candidates, who tend to be more liberal than state candidates. Finally, a big question is what Bevin's voters will do. Many of them hate McConnell bitterly. Will they stay home (thus helping Grimes) or will there be a massive nose-holding event on Nov. 4? All in all, it is going to be a brutal general election campaign and it might go down to the wire.

Wehby Beats Conger in Oregon

Another annoying defeat for the tea party came in Oregon, where a pediatric neurosurgeon, Monica Wehby, beat a tea party favorite, state representative Jason Conger, for the Republican Senate nomination. Wehby's victory has to be classified as "annoying" rather than "painful" because in November Wehby will face popular a popular incumbent, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR). Merkley is clearly the favorite in this blue state, even though Wehby has the catchier slogan: "Keep your doctor, change your senator."

Chelsea Clinton's Mother-in-law Loses in Pennsylvania

Chelsea Clinton is not running for anything (yet), but she may have to wait a bit before any family members again hold public office. It is widely known that Dad was President and Mom served in the Senate, but less well known that both of her husband's parents served in the House. Her mother-in-law, Marjorie Margolies, tried to make a comeback yesterday by running in the PA-13 district vacated by Allyson Schwartz, who made an unsuccessful run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Pennsylvania. Margolies lost to state representative Brendan Boyle, who will likely win in November in this very blue district. Schwartz was beaten by businessman Tom Wolf. In November, Wolf will face Gov. Tom Corbett (R-PA), probably the nation's most vulnerable governor.

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---The Votemaster