News from the Votemaster

Florida Judge Strikes Down Ban on Out-of-State Same-Sex Marriages

While Congress moves at the speed of a dead beached whale, in other ways the United States moves quite rapidly. One of Karl Rove's moves to reelect Pres. George W. Bush in 2004 was to try to get states to have ballot initiatives banning same-sex marriages, either as amendments to the state constitution or state law. The idea was to motivate conservatives to vote. Now the Democrats are using their support for same-sex marriage as a way to get young voters to the polls. The law and public opinion have changed so quickly that yesterday a federal judge in Tallahassee told Florida that its law that says out-of-state same-sex marriages are not legal violates the U.S. Constitution. He is the 16th federal judge to strike down similar laws since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in United States v. Windsor in June 2013 that the IRS had to recognize same-sex marriages for estate tax purposes. Undoubtedly the whole issue of same-sex marriage is going back to the Supreme Court soon. What is so unusual about this topic is that in a very short time an issue that was used to drive Republicans to the polls now drives Democrats to the polls.

Pryor Begins Touting Obamacare

As with same-sex marriage, the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare") was initially a weapon the Republicans were wielding against Democrats. Also like same-sex marriage, the tables are beginning to turn. The number of attack ads Republicans have run recently pointing out that their Democratic opponent voted for the law has dropped drastically. In fact, in at least one state, Democrats are now campaigning based on their support for the law. The most surprising example is in Arkansas, where Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR), who is in a tough reelection campaign against Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR). Pryor is airing an ad that has his father, former senator David Pryor, say that when Mark got cancer, his insurance company refused to pay for the treatment that saved Mark's life. Basically, the ad attacks the insurance industry. It is an interesting approach. While the law is still not popular (although many of its provisions are), the insurance industry is even less popular and to the extent Pryor can put Cotton in a position of having to defend the insurance industry, it could sway voters who have had personal battles with an insurance company.

Could Begich Win in Alaska?

At first glance, Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) looks like a dead man walking. After all, Alaska elected the late senator Ted Stevens statewide eight times. The other Alaska Senate seat is held by Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who was preceded by her own father, Frank Murkowski (R). Together father and daughter have held the seat since 1981. And Begich defeated Stevens just weeks after the 86-year-old had been convicted of seven federal felonies (later overturned) and Begich's margin over Stevens was a mere 4000 votes. And to top it off, Alaska also chose Sarah Palin (R) as governor. All in all, it doesn't look like a state friendly to Democrats.

But this year could be different. To start with, incumbents are tough to beat under all conditions, especially when the challenger is not currently a high-profile official in a statewide office. Begich's opponent, Dan Sullivan, was commissioner of natural resources until Sept. 2013, but this is not a widely known office. Before that, he was attorney general, which is more visible. However, Sullivan has two serious problems besides low name recognition. First, his connection with Alaska is tenuous. He was born in Ohio and didn't even move to Alaska until 1997, then left and went to D.C. after 5 years, not returning until 2009. In contrast, Begich was born in Anchorage and his father was Alaska's lone representative before his disappearance in a small plane that has never been found. Consequently, Begich, with deep roots in Alaska, is already firing the charge of "carpetbagger" at Sullivan. In a state far separated from the rest of the U.S. such a charge can get traction.

Sullivan's second problem is the bitter primary he won with just 40% of the vote. There are hours of footage available in which Sullivan's opponents called him every name in the book. You can be certain quite a bit of that will turn up in Begich's ads. Nate Cohn at The Upshot has a good article on the Alaska Senate race.

Nunn and Perdue Attack Each Other in Debate

Michelle Nunn (D) and David Perdue (R) debated each other in Macon, Georgia, yesterday. They are fighting for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA). Nunn hit Perdue hard for backing last year's government shutdown, which furloughed 4000 people at a nearby Air Force base. She also attacked him for laying off workers at a Georgia textile company he was once CEO of. In contrast, Perdue didn't attack Nunn quite as much. He mostly emphasized his four decades of business experience and mentioned that only 10 sitting senators have more business experience than he does (at 64). This race is for only one of two Republican seats that the Democrats have a shot at picking off (the other is in Kentucky).

Today's Senate Polls

Alaska isn't the only state where carpetbagging is an issue. Former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown is now running for the Senate in New Hampshire, where his opponent, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) has been bringing this up. Up until now, Shaheen has been ahead of Brown (who is the presumed winner of the Republican primary on Sept. 9) but a new poll puts him within 2 points of her. We will need more polls to see if the race has really tightened or this is simply a statistical outlier.

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen*	46%	Scott Brown	44%			Aug 07	Aug 17	U. of New Hampshire
West Virginia	Natalie Tennant	33%	Shelley Moore-Capito	50%			Aug 19	Aug 20	Rasmussen

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster