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News from the Votemaster

Romney Wins First Debate

A CNN snap poll/ taken right after the first debate shows that 67% of registered voters who watched the debate thought that Romney won whereas only 26% thought that Obama won. On the other hand, a CBS poll showed a much lower percentage of people who thought Romney won: only 46%, vs. 22% who thought Obama won.

That both polls put Romney ahead, albeit with different margins, is not entirely surprising given the performance of the two candidates. Romney was fired up and aggressive. Obama seemed a bit listless and uninterested. The early part of the debate was entirely on Republican territory. The candidates argued about who would have the better tax cut. Obama could have said that taxes are at a historic low and need to be increased so the government can support education, research, and other things as well as reducing the deficit in the future. The second part was also on Republican territory as the candidates sparred on who could cut the most government programs (i.e., fire the most people). Obama could have pointed out the many things the government does that people approve of (e.g., small business administration loans, aid to college students) but didn't.

Perhaps most surprisingly, Romney attacked Obama over and over on many points and Obama didn't fight back. He didn't talk about the video in which Romney calls 47% of the country moochers. He didn't point out how Bain capital milked many companies for millions in fees and then shipped their jobs overseas. No word about how when Romney was governor of Massachusetts, the state ranked 47th in job creation. He didn't shame Romney on his tax returns by saying that when Romney's father ran for President, he released 12 years of tax returns and the son has released only 2 years. All these topics have been the subject of television ads, but Obama didn't bring up any of them during the debate.

Even on topics where he enjoys an overwhelming advantage, Obama barely pressed his point. He did point out that Romney wants to cut taxes by $5 trillion but didn't make the case that there is no way to do that without increasing the deficit enormously or completely gutting programs that benefit the middle class. The public agrees with him on this but instead of hitting Romney over the head with it, he just mentioned it and let it slide. Also, he should have clobbered Romney on his plan to change Medicare into a voucher program, for example, by saying: "If your program is so great for seniors, how come your running mate was booed at the AARP convention?"

Romney repeatedly said that Obama had reduced Medicare by $716 billion. Obama could have point blank accused Romney of lying and let the fact checkers thrash this out today, but he didn't. All in all, a surprisingly passive performance from Obama.

After the debate, Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, promised that Obama would get much tougher with Romney next time, now that he knows how inconsistent Romney is. Axelrod inferred that yesterday was the moment that Romney shook the Etch-A-Sketch and that in the future what he says at a debate will be compared to what he has campaigned on all year and inconsistencies highlighted.

Political journalists tend to live for the moment and think whatever happened yesterday is the beginning and end of the universe. It's not. Here are five takeaways from the National Journal.

Journalists love a story with a clear winner and loser, but campaigns are more complicated
Obama will learn from his mistakes and will come out fighting next time
Romney has run a poor campaign and will make mistakes, too
Other events in the world could take the focus off the debates
The fundamentals are unchanged: people still like Obama and dislike Romney

The fact checkers are starting to rev up. Some of the statements the candidates made are exaggerations or incomplete. Others may be technically correct but can't be attributed to the candidate's policies. For example, Romney claimed he would create 12 million new jobs in his first term. However, Moody's Analytics has predicted 12 million new jobs as the economy continues to recover, no matter who is President.

Of course, winning the first debate is not the same as winning the election. John Kerry decisively won the first debate in 2004 but didn't win the election. Also, the second debate is a town hall format, with questions from the audience, which has a completely different dynamic. Finally, a chastened Obama may hit back much harder next time.

Another loser last night was moderator Jim Lehrer. He completely lost control. Romney kept talking beyond his alloted time slots and when Lehrer tried to stop him, wouldn't stop. He could have said: "Governor, we agreed to some rules in advance and I'd appreciate it if you would follow them." Obama also spoke too long upon occasion but only once did Lehrer call him on it. Clearly Lehrer preferred being in the background. But as a consequence of his reticence, the sixth 15-minute segment (on governing) got only 3 minutes.

Also worth noting is the networks' habit of interviewing highly partisan people after the debate and pretending they are neutral observers. For example, CNN's team included failed Republican Senate candidate Carly Fiorina and Alex Castellanos, a long-time Republican campaign consultant as well as Democrat James Carville. They were not identified as such. Needless to say, they touted their own teams. Many viewers may not have realized that everything they said could have been written long before the debate--and probably was. Maybe they should have been required to wear elephant and donkey logos, respectively.

The debate could have repercussions downticket. Republican funders who were toying with the idea of giving up on Romney and pouring their millions into Senate and House races are probably not going to to do that quite yet. The consequence is that Democratic Senate and House candidates may get some more breathing space for a while and if the funders do eventually abandon Romney, it may be too late to make a difference in the other races.

Today's Presidential Polls

State	Obama	Romney	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	44%	53%	Oct 01	Oct 03	PPP
Florida	47%	46%	Sep 30	Oct 01	Marist Coll.
Louisiana	37%	50%	Sep 29	Sep 30	Zogby
Louisiana	39%	45%	Sep 11	Sep 20	Southern Media + Opinion
Missouri	45%	51%	Oct 01	Oct 03	PPP
North Carolina	47%	51%	Oct 02	Oct 02	Rasmussen
New Hampshire	51%	44%	Sep 24	Sep 25	PPP
New Jersey	56%	39%	Sep 27	Sep 30	Rutgers-Eagleton
Ohio	51%	43%	Sep 30	Oct 01	Marist Coll.
Texas	39%	58%	Sep 10	Sep 26	Texas Lyceum
Virginia	48%	46%	Sep 30	Oct 01	Marist Coll.
Washington	56%	36%	Sep 28	Sep 30	SurveyUSA
Wisconsin	49%	39%	Sep 29	Sep 30	Zogby
Wisconsin	53%	42%	Sep 27	Sep 30	Marquette Law School

Today's Senate Polls

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	Richard Carmona	45%	Jeff Flake	43%			Oct 01	Oct 03	PPP
Florida	Bill Nelson*	52%	Connie McGillicuddy	41%			Sep 30	Oct 01	Marist Coll.
Missouri	Claire McCaskill*	46%	Todd Akin	40%			Oct 01	Oct 03	PPP
Missouri	Claire McCaskill*	51%	Todd Akin	45%			Oct 02	Oct 02	Rasmussen
Ohio	Sherrod Brown*	50%	Josh Mandel	41%			Sep 30	Oct 01	Marist Coll.
Texas	Paul Sadler	24%	Ted Cruz	50%			Sep 10	Sep 26	Texas Lyceum
Virginia	Tim Kaine	49%	George Allen	44%			Sep 30	Oct 01	Marist Coll.
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin	48%	Tommy Thompson	44%			Sep 27	Sep 30	Marquette Law School

* Denotes incumbent