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News from the Votemaster

Exit Polls Showed Expected Results

The exit polls didn't show any huge surprises. Men preferred Romney, with 52% of them voting for him, while 55% of the women voted for Obama. Romney got 59% of the white vote but Obama got the black vote (93%), Latino vote (71%), and Asian vote (73%). As has been noted before, as the white vote drops to 70% and below, this is going to be the end of the Republican Party unless it can start appealing to women and minorities.

Young voters, 18-29, gave 60% of their votes to Obama but seniors went for Romney with 56% of their votes. The split by education was nonlinear. Noncollege voters went for Obama with 51% of the vote and people with postgraduate degrees were even more strongly Democratic (55%), but voters with a college degree went for Romney, with 51% voting for him. Voters making under $50,000 went for the Democrat but those making more than that went for the Republican. 56% of married voters supported Romney but 62% of unmarried voters went for Obama.

How Can the Republicans Win Elections Again?

Lots of advice for the Republicans is being offered. Here is what Chris Cillizza suggests.

Republicans Openly Lobbying for Kerry as Secretary of State

It is rumored that President Obama plans to nominate U.N. ambassador Susan Rice as Hillary Clinton's successor as Secretary of State. Since there is a history of black women named Rice running the State Dept., you might think her confirmation would be a formality. No way. Senate Republicans are talking about a comment she made shortly after Ambassador Stevens was killed in Libya and acting like she is a new Benedict Arnold. They are openly praising Sen. John Kerry to the moon as a better appointee. Apparently he improved drastically since 2004, since he wasn't getting many kudos from them then. What they really mean, of course, is "We don't give a hoot who the Secretary of State is, but we would sure like a special election for a Senate seat in Massachusetts since we think Scott Brown could win it." But saying this out loud is considered gauche in Senate circles.

Michael Bloomberg To Become a Political Force

The Citizens United decision seems to have unleashed right-wing billionaires, who spent millions of dollars helping Republican candidates. That balance may change a little now as New York City mayor, Michael Bloomberg, starts to ramp up his political spending. He dropped $9 million on some House races this year and is suggesting that is only the tip of the (rapidly melting) iceberg. After his third term as mayor is finished next year, Bloomberg plans to get more involved in funding political campaigns of people he agrees with. His major issues are gun control and climate change. With an estimated wealth of $22 billion and far more political acumen than most billionaires (who gave $300 million to Karl Rove and got nothing in return), Bloomberg could be a real force taking down candidates supported by the National Rifle Association. Bloomberg used to be a Republican but is now an independent, but given that he wants to help candidates who support gun control and want to stop climate change, much of his money is likely to go to Democrats in the future. If he were to spend 10 percent of his fortune, that is, $2 billion, on 1000 House races, he could put $2 million into each race. That is a lot of money for a House race and could significantly alter the composition of the House.

Jerry Moran Expected to Lead NRSC

Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS), is currently the only candidate to lead the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2014 and many Republican senators are privately grumbling about him. He has been in the Senate less than 2 years and is not an especially good fundraiser. Republicans will be defending only 13 seats in 2014, all but one (in Maine) are easy victories, so he doesn't have to do any work there. The grumbling is that the Democrats are defending 20 seats, some of them very vulnerable. The fear among some Republicans is that tea party candidates will win primaries in these states and then lose battles they could have won and Moran will not be able to recruit establishment candidates strong enough to prevent this. The most vulnerable Democrats are as follows, but there could always be surprises in other races as well.

State Incumbent Party Danger
Alaska Mark Begich Dem High
Arkansas Mark Pryor Dem Medium
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Dem High
Montana Max Baucus Dem Medium
North Carolina Kay Hagan Dem High
South Dakota Tim Johnson Dem High

Two other Democratic senators, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), are potentially vulnerable since they are from swing states, but female Democrats did so well in New Hampshire last week and Warner is a multimillionaire capable of putting whatever it takes into his campaign in a now-purple state, they are probably not high-priority Republican targets any more.

Final Senate Results

Here are the final Senate results, except for Arizona, where 600,000 of the 3 million ballots have not yet been counted. The races are sorted in descending order of the Democratic margin, so you can see where the close races were.

State Democrat D % Republican R % Independent I % D - R
Vermont Bernie Sanders 71.1% John MacGovern 24.8%     46.3%
New York Kirsten Gillibrand 71.9% Wendy Long 26.7%     45.2%
Delaware Tom Carper 66.4% Kevin Wade 29.0%     37.4%
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar 65.3% Kurt Bills 30.6%     34.7%
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse 64.8% Barry Hinckley 35.2%     29.6%
Maryland Ben Cardin 55.3% Dan Bongino 26.6%     28.7%
Hawaii Maizie Hirono 62.6% Linda Lingle 37.4%     25.2%
West Virginia Joe Manchin 60.5% John Raese 36.5%     24.0%
California Dianne Feinstein 61.4% Elizabeth Emken 38.6%     22.8%
Michigan Debbie Stabenow 58.8% Pete Hoekstra 38.0%     20.8%
Washington Maria Cantwell 60.2% Michael Baumgartner 39.8%     20.4%
New Jersey Bob Menendez 58.5% Joseph Kyrillos 39.8%     18.7%
Missouri Claire McCaskill 54.7% Todd Akin 39.2%     15.5%
Florida Bill Nelson 55.2% Connie McGillicuddy 42.2%     13.0%
Connecticut Chris Murphy 55.2% Linda McMahon 43.2%     12.0%
Pennsylvania Bob Casey 53.6% Tom Smith 44.7%     8.9%
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren 53.7% Scott Brown 46.3%     7.4%
Indiana Joe Donnelly 49.9% Richard Mourdock 44.3%     5.6%
New Mexico Martin Heinrich 51.0% Heather Wilson 45.4%     5.6%
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin 51.5% Tommy Thompson 45.9%     5.6%
Ohio Sherrod Brown 50.3% Josh Mandel 45.1%     5.2%
Virginia Tim Kaine 52.5% George Allen 47.5%     5.0%
Montana Jon Tester 48.7% Denny Rehberg 44.8%     3.9%
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp 50.5% Rick Berg 49.5%     1.0%
Nevada Shelley Berkley 44.7% Dean Heller 45.9%     -1.2%
Arizona Richard Carmona 45.8% Jeff Flake 49.8%     -4.0%
Texas Paul Sadler 40.5% Ted Cruz 56.6%     -16.1%
Nebraska Bob Kerrey 41.8% Deb Fischer 58.2%     -16.4%
Mississippi Albert Gore 40.3% Roger Wicker 57.4%     -17.1%
Maine Cynthia Dill 13.2% Charlie Summers 30.7% Angus King 52.8% -17.5%
Tennessee Mark Clayton 40.4% Bob Corker 64.9%     -24.5%
Utah Scott Howell 30.2% Orrin Hatch 65.2%     -35.0%
Wyoming Tim Chesnut 21.6% John Barrasso 75.9%     -54.3%