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GOP pickups: IN MI NC OH

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News from the Votemaster

Should Obama Ignore Swing Voters?

Alan Abramowitz did an interesting analysis of polling data in 12 battleground states. One conclusion is that there are relatively few actual swing voters in the swing states. What makes the states swing is that the number of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents is about the same as the number of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. It is the close balance that makes these states special, not the large numbers of undecided voters.

Another conclusion is that the swing voters have a rather negative view of President Obama's performance in office. If this is true, trying to get them to vote could backfire on the Democrats. The best thing for Obama might be to ignore them and hope they stay home.

But the news for Obama was not all bad. There is another group that has more potential for him: unregistered voters. They actually approve of Obama's performance more than registered voters do. The unregistered voters think he is doing a good job by a 55% to 38% margin. The result of this analysis, if true, is that the Democrats shouldn't put too much effort into trying to convince swing voters to come down on their side. It is likely to fail. Instead they should put a lot of effort into voter registration drives and try to get the unregistered voters to show up on election day.

Obama Losing Support Among Jews

Next to blacks, Jews are the most stalwart supporters of the Democrats, so it can be nothing but disconcerting that a new Gallup poll shows that Obama is the choice of only 64% of registered Jewish voters, with 29% for Romney. In 2008, Obama won 74% of the Jewish vote. Part of the drop is simply that Obama's share of the vote now is smaller nationwide and for all demographics than it was in 2008, but this drop exceeds the national average.

Fun and Games in Maine

While former Maine governor and current independent Senate candidate Angus King still won't say which party he will caucus with, the uncertainty there has gotten even larger now that the chairman of the Maine Democratic Party has said he doesn't know what he will do in the race. Usually state chairmen support their own candidates. Such remarks make it sound a lot like although there will be an official Democratic Senate candidate after the primary, he or she is not going to get any support from the state party. The Republicans have a different problem in Maine: no fewer than 10 candidates are running for the nomination.

Pick the Veep

The Washington Post has a nice little game where you can put yourself in Mitt Romney's shoes and pick the Veep by answering a few questions like "establishment or tea party?" and so on. It's fun and just takes a minute.

Today's Senate Polls

Florida hasn't held its Senate primary yet even though its presidential primary was in January. Nevertheless, primary polling puts "Connie Mack," whose real name is Cornelius McGillicuddy IV, so far ahead we will treat him as the de facto nominee. While we are used to having politicians use nicknames for their first name, using nicknames for last names is a bridge too far, so he is going to be Connie McGillicuddy here. Whatever he is called, he is trailing incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL).

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
Florida	Bill Nelson	49%	Connie McGillicuddy	36%			May 31	Jun 03	PPP