News from the Votemaster          

Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia Vote Today     Permalink

While there is little doubt that Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination, the primaries are continuing. Today three fairly conservative states vote: Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia. Had Rick Santorum not dropped out, he might have won them all. He is still on the ballot in all of them, though. It will be interesting to see how well Mitt Romney does now that his only official opponent is Ron Paul. Can he finally unify the Republican Party with massive wins in these states or are the voters still lukewarm to him? We'll know tomorrow.

Key Senate Primary Today in Indiana     Permalink

While the presidential primaries are not tremendously exciting since it is certain that Mitt Romney will win all of them, there is another race that is much more of a cliffhanger: the Republican senatorial primary in Indiana. It pits six-term senator Richard Lugar, an establishment conservative, against state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who is supported by the tea party. An independent poll last week showed Mourdock ahead 48% to 38% when leaners are counted. Other signs also point to a possible Mourdock victory, including a superPAC giving up on Lugar a week ago.

A Mourdock victory would really shake up the battle for the Senate by turning a state that was a certain Republican hold into a tossup. Against Lugar, the Democratic nominee, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN), had no chance at all, but against the far-right Mourdock, it will certainly be much closer. The Democrats are likely to lose Senate seats in a number of states, simply because they are defending 23 seats vs. the Republicans' 10 seats, so every Republican seat they pick up allows them to lose one of their own without affecting the balance. If Mourdock wins, expect a lot of out-of-state Democratic money to start pouring into Indiana in support of Donnelly.

North Carolina Votes on Gay Marriage and Civil Unions Today     Permalink

A referendum in North Carolina on gay marriage and civil unions is being held today in conjunction with the presidential primary. A recent poll shows the measure passing by 55% to 39%. To some extent, victory was likely from the start simply because the Republicans (who generally oppose gay marriage and civil unions) have a contested primary and the Democrats (who typically approve at least civil unions) do not. So most likely the electorate today will be heavily skewed toward the Republicans and the measure is probably going to pass. If the referendum had been held at the time of the general election, the results might have been quite different.

Obama's Reelection Campaign Begins with $25 million ad buy in Swing States     Permalink

Now that the Republicans pretty much have a nominee, the general election is starting in earnest. President Obama is kicking it off by spending $25 million on television ads in the nine major swing states. The ads are positive ones, talking about Obama's achievements. But make no mistake, the campaign is going to get very bloody very fast. For better or worse, the Romney camp does not believe much in positive ads (e.g., talking about Romney's successful career in business) and hardly ran any during the primaries. They always go for the jugular and Obama is sure to respond in kind.

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