Close Races Expected in Alabama and Mississippi Today     Permalink

Hawaii, Alabama, and Mississippi vote today. Mitt Romney will probably win Hawaii--where no one is campaigning--simply because in blue states like Hawaii, even the Republicans are more liberal than they are in red states. The real tests for Romney will come in the deep South. The latest PPP poll of Alabama puts Romney at 31%, Newt Gingrich at 30%, Rick Santorum at 29%, and Ron Paul at 8%. In short, it's anybody's guess what will happen there except Ron Paul will come in last. Mississippi is also close, with a PPP poll putting Gingrich at 33%, Romney at 31%, Santorum at 27% and Paul at 7%.

If Romney wins either of these states, the news Wednesday morning will be about his great breakthrough in the South, but if he wins with only 1/3 of the votes, it is hard to make a case that conservatives are getting used to them. Rather, that they are still split among his opponents.

Santorum Focuses on Delegates     Permalink

To some extent, Rick Santorum is changing his strategy and now focusing on delegates rather than victories. He knows that if he can deny Romney the 1144 delegates needed to win on the first ballot, all delegates become free to vote their consciences on the second ballot, and therein lies his hope. To effect this plan, he is coming to realize that who the delegates are is important. In all caucus states, for example, there are two ballots. The first one is just a straw poll about which candidate the voters prefer. Many people go home after having cast their ballot in this race. But later in the caucus the actual delegates to the county convention are chosen. It is here that Santorum, (like Romney and Paul already), wants to hit pay dirt. The goal is ultimately to elect conservative delegates to the RNC who will bolt to Santorum on the second ballot, even if they are legally or morally obligated to vote for Romney on the first ballot. This focus on the actual delegates is something Ron Paul has had for a long time and Romney has also had for a while. As it becomes increasingly clear that while Romney is certain to finish the primaries with more delegates than anyone else, there is a small chance that he won't have 1144 and there will be a second ballot at the convention. For Santorum and Paul, it is a long shot at best, but it is a strategy of sorts.

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