Washington State Holds Caucuses Today     Permalink

"I hate Washington" is probably not the ideal slogan when campaigning north of the Oregon border, but the feeling is still there. Actually, the candidates aren't saying much of anything in Washington, despite the fact that the Republicans are holding their caucuses there today. The candidates are all focusing on Tuesday's primary in Ohio. A recent PPP poll gives Romney a 37% to 32% lead over Santorum in Washington, but a victory for him there will be largely ignored (although a defeat would hurt). All eyes are on March 6, when 10 states vote.

Maine Senate Field Taking Shape     Permalink

After Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) unexpectedly announced that she was not going to run for reelection, everyone's model of the battle to control the new Senate was completely upended. Snowe was considered a shoo-in for winning a fourth term, having received 74% of the vote in 2006--a big year for the Democrats. Within a day there was endless speculation about who was going to run but now the picture is becoming a bit clearer. Typically, when a Senate seat becomes vacant, one or more of the state's representatives run for it. Maine has two representatives. Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME) represents the densely populated (for Maine) southern part of the state (ME-01). Rep. Michael Michaud (D-ME) represents ME-02, which covers the rest of the state and is the biggest congressional district east of the Mississippi. Pingree is almost certainly running and Michaud has now said he will not run. Former governor John Baldacci, a Democrat, is also mulling a run. If he decides to do it, there will be a primary between Pingree, Baldacci, and some minor candidates. At this point, Pingree, a progressive, is favored because (1) Baldacci is a fairly dull campaigner, and (2) Maine has a long history of electing women to the Senate, going back to the four terms Margaret Chase Smith served starting in 1948.

On the Republican side, state senate president Kevin Raye (R), widely viewed as the Republicans' best hope, has decided not to run. The Republican bench in Maine is weak and a local businessman, Scott D'Amboise, who has already filed to run, may end up being the GOP candidate by default. Maine is a very blue state (Obama carried it by 17% in 2008) and Republican officials know that winning an open seat in a presidential election year definitely requires swimming upstream.

One unknown is what former independent governor Angus King will do. If King decides to go for one more hurrah, he could shake up the general election race in unpredictable ways. A three-way race between Pingree, an unknown Republican, and King is a real possibility. King is still popular in the state, but Pingree (56) could argue that it takes years to get enough seniority in the Senate to have any real power and King (67) is simply too old.

Without a doubt, Maine now represents the Democrats' best chance for picking up a Senate seat, even more than Massachusetts, where Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and Elizabeth Warren are running neck and neck. If the Democrats pick up these two New England states, a region where Obama is popular and is likely to turn out many Democrats, the Republicans would have to win five or six seats (depending who is elected Vice President) to take control of the Senate. North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, Missouri, and Montana are certainly possibilities, but the odds of the Republicans winning all of them (and one more if Joe Biden is reelected to the vice presidency) is small. Thus Snowe, who politely but firmly, opposed the Democrats on almost everything during the past few years, may have done them the ultimate favor by making it very difficult for the Republicans to capture the Senate in 2012.

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