Obama Lays Groundwork for a Populist Campaign in State-of-the-Union Speech     Permalink

President Obama has a choice about what kind of reelection campaign he wants to run. He could run as a centrist ("the only grown-up in the room") or as a no-holds-barred populist ("tax the rich"). In his state-of-the-union speech last night, he indicated fairly clearly that he intends to go the latter route. He emphasized fairness and opportunity for everyone, not just the rich. He said that everyone must play by the same rules (English translation: Mitt Romney should have the same tax table as you and I do). He talked about investing in infrastructure and education.

Polls show that a large number of people think that the system is rigged against them. This feeling was surely bolstered by the release of Mitt Romney's 2010 tax return this week showing that he paid an effective 13.9% tax rate on an income of $21.7 million. Obama didn't attack Romney, who undoubtedly obeyed the law, but attacked the law itself. He brought up the fact that Warren Buffett's secretary, Debbie Bosanek, pays a higher tax rate than billionaire Buffett himself. To make this point more graphic, he used Bosanek as a prop, planting her right next to Michelle Obama in the audience. Bosanek said she was so excited that she couldn't sleep last night. It is unlikely that when she applied for a job as a secretary in Nebraska she thought it would lead to her being invited to sit next to the first lady at a major political event, let alone become the key symbol used by a sitting President during an election campaign, but there she is. And unlike U.S. Airways pilot Chesley Sullenberger, who became an international hero by skillfully landing his stricken plane in the Hudson River with no fatalities, all Bosanek did for her fame was pay her taxes.

Obama's speech was short on details, but they will no doubt come later. One specific item he did mention, however, was a proposed change to the tax laws to make sure than anyone earning more than $1 million pays at least a 30% tax rate. He may ask Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to introduce it into the Senate, knowing full well the Republicans will filibuster it. Then he can campaign on the theme that Republicans don't want to raise taxes on the rich. Polls have show over and over that huge majorities want to increase taxes on millionaires. Making this issue a key part of his reelection campaign is going to put the Republicans in an awkward position, especially if Romney is the nominee.

The Republicans are already attacking Obama for "class warfare," but at a time of great anxiety for many people who have lost their jobs and homes or are in fear of losing them, name calling is probably no match for a President calling for fairness and not having the system favor a small group of rich people at the expense of the middle class. If Mitt Romney is the eventual GOP nominee, the contrast could not be sharper: a man raised by a single mother on welfare who made it to the top vs. a man born to great wealth (Romney's father was CEO of American Motors) and power (Romney's father was later governor of Michigan). If Newt Gingrich is the nominee, this argument will be useless since Gingrich was born to a 16-year-old girl whose marriage lasted three days.

The speech focused nearly entirely on economics and fairness. But there were also topics that didn't make it into the speech. For example, although he talked endlessly about clean energy and the jobs it could create, Obama didn't mention the fact that he had just killed the Keystone XL pipeline and the construction jobs it would have created. No doubt during the campaign Republicans will hammer him on this. In rebuttal, Democrats will point out that Obama killed the project in part because the Republican governor of Nebraska, Dave Heineman, was wildly against it for fear a spill would pollute his state's water supplies for years to come. Obama also didn't talk much about foreign policy although when this comes up during the campaign he will no doubt point out that he, not President George W. Bush, was the one who got Osama bin Laden.

Another factor to consider about the speech is the effect it has on Obama's base, many of whom are very disappointed with him for patiently negotiating with the Republicans on everything, generally giving them much of what they want in the end, rather than calling their bluff. Just as the Republican primary campaign is full of red meat for the Republican base, this speech was full of red meat for the Democratic base. Obama knows his base will vote for him in the end, but he needs to fire them up to get them out there ringing doorbells and and donating money. This speech was an attempt to get their attention.

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