Social Conservatives Agree to Back Santorum     Permalink

If 6 months ago any pundit had said all the social conservatives would rally around Rick Santorum, he would have been laughed out of the pundit's association (assuming they have one). But at a meeting of about 150 top social conservative leaders in Texas this weekend, they decided that getting all of them to support Santorum was their only hope of stopping Mitt Romney.

In a week we'll have a better idea of what their support really means. Are they going to raise gobs of money for him? Are they going to mobilize ground troops for him? Are all the South Carolina preachers going to threaten their flocks with eternal damnation if they don't vote for Santorum? If Newt Gingrich ends up winning the primary, or at least coming in second, it will be very apparent that the leaders don't have a lot of clout any more. If they had come together before Iowa, instead of waiting until after New Hampshire, they would undoubtedly have propelled Santorum to victory there and his standing now would have been far higher. But they didn't and now reap the consequences. Nevertheless, if this newfound unity works and Santorum wins South Carolina, it probably will mean the end of Perry's campaign. He's just not fit to play in the major leagues. Gingrich has enough money and ego to survive a loss in South Carolina and at least try to win Florida.

The best-case scenario for Santorum is that he wins South Carolina and Florida and then gets into a long march against Romney, who will not drop out until the delegates have actually selected someone else at the Republican National Convention. A potential consequence of the decision of the social conservatives to close ranks around Santorum is the creation of a lot of PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) voters down the road. If Santorum somehow manages to stay in contention for weeks or months, healing the fractures within the Republican Party will be a lot harder than if Romney wins South Carolina and the conservatives mope for 2-3 months, but get back in line by May or June.

If--and that is a big if--Santorum catches on with the voters as well as the leaders of conservative groups, it could have several consequences for Romney. First, a steady stream of attacks from Santorum on abortion and gay marriage could force Romney to the right and make him say things that he will regret come the general election. Second, it will generate some pressure to pick Santorum as his running mate. While such a choice would satisfy the social conservatives, Santorum brings nothing to the ticket since the social conservatives have no where to go, with or without Santorum. Santorum probably can't even bring in his own state (Pennsylvania). But filling the Veep slot with Santorum means that Romney can't pick someone like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who would help with an ethnic group (Latinos) and a state (Florida).

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