Romney Leads Going into the New Hampshire Primary Today     Permalink

Four different polls put Mitt Romney ahead for today's leadoff primary in New Hampshire. But 4 years ago, the polls said Barack Obama was going to win and he didn't--Hillary Clinton did. So all we should conclude is that the voters of New Hampshire love to surprise people.

The polls also show Jon Huntsman finally getting his 15 minutes of fame. He might even come in second, but it's anyone's guess at this point. If he does, he will once again become the media's darling, but he is a bad fit for South Carolina, so it is not clear what he will do even if he makes a good showing.

Probably the most important thing to look for tonight is Romney's percentage. If he gets 40% or more, he can crow about a breakthrough. However, if he gets 25-30%, even if he comes in first, it will again demonstrate that the Republicans don't really like him, it's just that they can't settle on anyone else. It is unlikely there will be a lot more clarity tomorrow, however, since probably no one will drop out on Wednesday.

Gingrich Goes Negative in South Carolina     Permalink

Early in this election cycle, Newt Gingrich promised to run a positive campaign (English translation: I don't have the money to carpet bomb Romney with negative ads like he is doing to me). That will change in South Carolina, a must-win state for Gingrich whose primary is next after today's battle in New Hampshire. What caused him to change his mind? First, he is really, really angry at Romney for attacking so hard and then denying he had any part in running the ads. Second, an angel has appeared in the form of Sheldon Adelson, an old friend who happens to be one of the richest people in the world with an estimated fortune of $21 billion. Adelson is going to spend $5 million on ads in South Carolina targeting Romney. Negative ads worked tremendously well for Romney against Gingrich in Iowa. It will be interesting to see what happens when the shoe is on the other foot.

Adelson, a successful businessman and casino owner, is going to go after Romney's record at Bain Capital, claiming he destroyed far more jobs than he created. These ads are likely to be a preview of what the Democrats will do to Romney in the general election if he is the nominee. While the charge of flip-flopping resonates with the Republican base, the average voter really doesn't care that much what Romney said or did a long time ago. But the charge of being a rapacious corporate raider who destroyed companies and jobs for his own profit will be disastrous if it sticks. Here is an example video you should expect from the DNC during the general election. Every poor soul Romney fired is going to be on TV.

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