Romney Expected to Win Big at Nevada Caucuses Today     Permalink

A small number of Nevadans will caucus today and they are expected to hand Mitt Romney a big win. In 2008, he won 51% of the vote statewide and he will probably do as well today. About 26% of the caucus-goers in 2008 were Mormons and 95% voted for him. Who said identity politics doesn't matter? A PPP poll released yesterday puts Romney ahead with 51% of the vote. Newt Gingrich came in second at 25% and Ron Paul was third at 15%. But Paul's fans are very devoted and if turnout is high among them, he might come in second. Despite having a critically ill daughter and no hopes of winning the Republican nomination, Rick Santorum is still out there campaigning.

Something different about Nevada this time is that each county can set the hours for its caucuses and they are all over the map. In particular, some caucuses will be held in the evening instead of the usual day time. This is to accommodate both casino employees who can't take time off during the day to caucus and orthodox Jews, who consider caucusing forbidden work that cannot be performed on the sabbath.

Maine's week-long caucuses begin today.

Economy is Improving     Permalink

The jobs picture in the country is improving ever so gradually, but it is improving. In January, 243,000 jobs were created. Many observers think that the election will be decided based on job growth, no matter who the Republican nominee is and no matter how much money third parties spend on ads. If people feel the economy is getting better, it will be tough for the Republicans to convince people that Obama is doing a poor job. What matters is not the absolute value of the unemployment number, but its direction. If it is still high but clearly dropping, Obama can, and will, take credit for it. January's report is the fifth consecutive month where the percentage of unemployed people has declined. If this continues all year, it will help Obama and the Democrats enormously.

The stock market reacted sharply to the new jobs number, with the Dow Jones index up 160 points yesterday to 12,862, the highest it has been since May 2008. Historically, the stock market has been a decent indicator of who wins presidential elections. If it is higher on election day than it was at the start of the year (it started 2012 at 12,218), then the incumbent party generally wins. A rough explanation is that a rising stock market usually means the economy is improving and when the economy is improving, the opposition's slogan of "throw the bums out" doesn't get much traction. As a point of reference, the Dow Jones index opened at 8,280 on Jan. 20, 2009, the day of President Obama's inuaguration. So it is up 55% during his term of office. By way of comparison, the net change from George W. Bush's first day in office in 2001 to his last day in 2009, the Dow Jones was down 29%. Expect to hear these numbers all year long.

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