Preview of the Top 2010 Senate Races     Permalink

While the Senate is gradually moving towards a health care bill, let's look at the top 2010 Senate races, that is, the seats most likely to change party. First we look at the Democratic seats that might switch (in alphabetical order) then the Republican-held seats, again in alphabetical order. At this point in time, it is much too hard to guess which ones will be the toughest battles. In many cases the two candidates aren't even known yet.

Democratic Seats

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Blanche Lincoln (D)	(R)	Arkansas is a very Democratic state--except for presidential elections. The governor and both senators are Democrats as are three of the four representatives and the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. In 2008, the Republicans didn't even bother to field a candidate against Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR). State Senate minority leader Kim Hendren (R) announced a run against her but promptly referred to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as "that Jew" which got him a lot of free publicity but probably few votes even among antisemites because Lincoln isn't Jewish and she's his opponent, not Schumer. State senator Gilbert Baker is also going for the Republican nomination. The health-care bill is not popular in Arkansas and if Lincoln votes for it, she could have a problem.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Michael Bennet (D)	Jane Norton (R)	Ken Salazar swam against the Republican tide in 2004, but since he has now been appointed to the cabinet, an appointee, Michael Bennet, will be running in 2010. Bennet has never held elective office before, so he has no experience campaigning. He will also have to fend off a primary challenge from former Colorado House speaker Andrew Romanoff (D). Fortunately for him, President Obama has already endorsed him in the primary. The most likely Republican candidate is former lieutenant governor Jane Norton.

Connecticut

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chris Dodd (D)	(R)	Chris Dodd is a five-term senator from a blue state so under normal conditions it shouldn't be hard for him to become a six-term senator. However, he is also chairman of the Senate banking committee and as such is partially responsible for the various bailouts going on. These could be his Achilles heel. A potential Republican opponent could attack the bailouts and indirectly Dodd. Also, Dodd got a low-interest loan from a bank he oversees. Republicans say he is corrupt. Former representative Rob Simmons (R) is going to run against Dodd and is the favorite for the GOP nomination. However, Simmons may have a competitive primary against the former ambassador to Ireland, Tom Foley, state senator Sam Caligiuri, WWE CEO Linda McMahon, and Brokerage owner and author Peter Schiff.

Delaware

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	Mike Castle (R)	When Joe Biden became Vice President, Gov. Ruth Minner appointed a placeholder, Ted Kaufman, to the seat. Kaufman is not running in 2010, so the state's lone representative, Mike Castle (R) has decided to go for a promotion, even though he is 70. It is likely that Joe Biden's son, Beau Biden, who is the state's Attorney General will run against Castle, in which case it will be a real barnburner. But Biden hasn't made a decison yet.

Illinois

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Alexi Giannoulias (D)	Mark Kirk (R)	After a lot of feinting, the Senate decided to seat Roland Burris as Barack Obama's replacement. Burris failed to raise much money and was dogged by scandals, so he decided to call it quits in 2010. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis (D) is already running. Several other top Democrats have said they will not run, so Giannoulis may get a clear shot at the nomination. Rep. Mark Kirk is running for the Republican nomination, but since open Senate seats are pretty rare, he could draw a primary challenger. If the race ends up being Giannoulis vs. Kirk, Giannoulis is favored since (1) he has already won statewide election and Kirk has not, and (2) Illinois is a deep blue state so any Democrat not involved in a scandal (which is a bit of a rarity in Illinois) is the automatic favorite.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Harry Reid (D)	(R)	Although the gentlemen's agreement between the parties to leave each other's leader alone is gone, defeating the powerful majority leader will be tough. For one thing, Nevada swung strongly into the Democratic column in 2008, as Democratic registration went up by 113,000 in 2008 and Obama won the state by a large margin. For another, Reid's position gives him the ability to bring home the bacon. Also working in his favor is that the Republicans have a very thin bench in Nevada. The governor has been involved in one scandal after another and the lieutenant governor is under indictment. The only serious Republican left is former representative Jon Porter, but if he couldn't even win his own district, it could be tough statewide. Reid is taking no chances, though. He raised $7.7 million in the first quarter of 2009. This said, Reid's popularity in the state is low, so the Republicans will certainly do their best to unseat him.

Republican Seats

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(R)	(D)	After Mel Martinez retired from the Senate, a placeholder, George LeMieux, was appointed to hold the seat. He will not run in 2010. After some hesitation, Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) decided to run for the job and is the favorite. However, there is going to be a nasty primary between former state House majority leader Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL). Conservatives will back Rubio, forcing Crist to tack to the right during the primary, which is Aug. 24. This means even if Crist wins, he has little time to tack back to the center. For Democrats, the race is wide open with the only announced candidate so far being Kendrick Meek, who is not well known in the state. If it ends up Crist vs. Meek, Crist will win handily.

Kentucky

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Trey Grayson (R)	(D)	Jim Bunning is the only senator who is a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame. While he was a great pitcher, he was hardly a great senator. His age and lack of fundraising drove him from the 2010 race, so the Republican candidate is probably going to be Trey Grayson, the Kentucky Secretary of State. The Democrats have two contenders, Lt.Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, and Attorney General Jack Conway. If the two of them bloody each other in a primary, Grayson might coast to an easy victory. But both are battle-hardened politicians and either one could give Greyson a run for his money. An an aside, Rep. Ron Paul's son, Rand Paul, is challenging Grayson in a primary, but unless he can stir up the passion that his father did, this is basically a sideshow.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
David Vitter (R)	Charlie Melancon (D)	David Vitter is the only Republican ever elected to the Senate from Louisiana since direct election of senators began. He will certainly be under a cloud in 2010 because he was a customer of the late D.C. madam, Deborah Jeane Palfrey. Count on his Democratic opponent to bring this up. Perhaps once. Perhaps twice. Perhaps 1000 times. Vitter might even face a primary challenger from porn star Stormy Daniels. Even though she has no political background, she is guaranteed lots of press coverage and photos. So far the only announced Democrat is Rep. Charlie Melancon.

Missouri

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Roy Blunt (R)	Robin Carnahan (D)	Four-term senator Kit Bond (R) has decided to call it quits. He will be 77 at the end of another term and he's not interested, so we have an open seat in a key swing state. The other Missouri senator is a Democrat, Claire McCaskill. Robin Carnahan (D), the current Missouri Secretary of State and a member of a Missouri dynasty is running and is the favorite. Father Mel was governor. Mother Jean was senator. Brother Russ is a congressman. Needless to say, the Carnahan name is pretty well known in Missouri. A serious primary challenge seems unlikely Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) is the almost certain Republican nominee at this point. He, too, has dynastic tendencies. His son, Matt Blunt, was governor from 2005 to 2009.

New Hampshire

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kelly Ayotte (R)	Paul Hodes (D)	Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) was going to become Secretary of Commerce and then he changed his mind. He abstained on the stimulus bill (which was de facto the same as voting against cloture) but took a lot of heat for it from NH Republicans. Then he withdrew and said he wouldn't run in 2010 either, creating an open seat. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) has already said he is running and is unlikely to be challenged by any other Democrat. The state is increasingly blue in the past two cycles and the GOP's bench there is very thin. But the Republicans lucked out when Kelly Ayotte, the state's Attorney General said she would run. However, she was appointed to the AG job and this is her first actual run for public office so she needs to learn the ropes quickly.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Burr (R)	(D)	Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan (D) at the same time as Beverly Perdue (D) was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state's electors. While the Democrats' strongest candidate, Attorney General Roy Cooper, decided against a run, their #2 choice, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, is contemplating one.

Ohio

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Rob Portman (R)	(D)	Sen. George Voinovich is retiring after two terms in the Senate, creating an open seat in a swing state. This will one of the most bitterly fought races in 2010. Former congressman Rob Portman (R-OH) is the likely nominee for the Republicans. He was also director of the budget during the Bush administration, which will be a handicap as the Democrats will accuse him of causing the recession. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is running as is Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher, a terrible campaigner, is nevertheless the choice of the establishment. Brunner is an insurgent, but polls show them fairly close.

As a footnote, Pennsylvania is not listed because although there is a closely fought primary between Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), it is very unlikely that the Republican candidate, Pat Toomey, who is far to the right, could win in such a blue state. Don't believe the early polls saying it is close. Once the Democratic primary is over and it becomes a two-man race, that will change.

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