One State Two State, Red State Blue State
Many people think that the states on the East Coast, West Coast, Upper Midwest, and Southwest are blue and the rest are red. That mental model is really not very accurate. While it holds for presidential elections, it does not hold nearly as well for governor, senator, and house delegations. As a simple example, three states that went most heavily for Obama in 2008 all have Republican governors. Similarly, the two states that went most heavily for McCain have Democratic governors. The blue states have nine Republican senators and the red states have 23 Democratic senators. The conclusion is that you shouldn't judge how a Senate race will go based on how the state went in the presidential election.
The chart below lists all the states in order of how Democratic they are in terms of the 2008 presidential vote. Hawaii is the bluest and Oklahoma and Wyoming are tied for being the reddest. The names of the states Obama carried are in blue cells; the McCain ones are in red cells. The next three columns show the percentage of the vote that went to Obama, to McCain, and the difference. The governors, senators, and House delegations that are "wrong" (don't match the presidential vote) are shown in blue or red, with ties in gray.
An asterisk after the party designator means that the seat is up for election in 2010 (or in the case of the New Jersey and Virginia governors, 2009.
The raw data is available in .csv format for Excel.
| State | O | M | Dif | Governor | Senior senator | Junior senator | House D | House R | Net |
| Hawaii | 72 | 27 | 45 | Linda Lingle (R)* | Daniel Inouye (D)* | Daniel Akaka (D) | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Vermont | 67 | 30 | 37 | James H. Douglas (R)* | Patrick Leahy (D)* | Bernie Sanders (I) | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Rhode Island | 63 | 35 | 28 | Don Carcieri (R)* | Jack Reed (D) | Sheldon Whitehouse (D) | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| New York | 63 | 36 | 27 | David Paterson (D)* | Chuck Schumer (D)* | Kirsten Gillibrand (D)* | 26 | 3 | 23 |
| Maryland | 62 | 36 | 26 | Martin O'Malley (D)* | Barbara Mikulski (D)* | Ben Cardin (D) | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| Massachusetts | 62 | 36 | 26 | Deval Patrick (D)* | Ted Kennedy (D) | John Kerry (D) | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Delaware | 62 | 37 | 25 | Jack Markell (D) | Tom Carper (D) | Ted Kaufman (D)* | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Illinois | 62 | 37 | 25 | Pat Quinn (D)* | Richard Durbin (D) | Roland Burris (D)* | 12 | 7 | 5 |
| California | 61 | 37 | 24 | Arnie Schwarzenegger(R)* | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Barbara Boxer (D)* | 34 | 19 | 15 |
| Connecticut | 61 | 38 | 23 | M. Jodi Rell (R)* | Chris Dodd (D)* | Joe Lieberman (I) | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Maine | 58 | 40 | 18 | John Baldacci (D)* | Olympia Snowe (R) | Susan Collins (R) | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Washington | 58 | 40 | 18 | Christine Gregoire (D) | Patty Murray (D)* | Maria Cantwell (D) | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Oregon | 57 | 40 | 17 | Ted Kulongoski (D)* | Ron Wyden (D)* | Jeff Merkley (D) | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Michigan | 57 | 41 | 16 | Jennifer Granholm (D)* | Carl Levin (D) | Debbie Stabenow (D) | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| New Jersey | 57 | 42 | 15 | Jon Corzine (D)* | Frank Lautenberg (D) | Bob Menendez (D) | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| New Mexico | 57 | 42 | 15 | Bill Richardson (D)* | Jeff Bingaman (D) | Tom Udall (D) | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Wisconsin | 56 | 42 | 14 | Jim Doyle (D)* | Herb Kohl (D) | Russell Feingold (D)* | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Nevada | 55 | 43 | 12 | Jim Gibbons (R)* | Harry Reid (D)* | John Ensign (R) | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pennsylvania | 55 | 44 | 11 | Ed Rendell (D)* | Arlen Specter (D)* | Bob Casey (D) | 12 | 7 | 5 |
| Iowa | 54 | 44 | 10 | Chet Culver (D)* | Chuck Grassley (R)* | Tom Harkin (D) | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 54 | 44 | 10 | Tim Pawlenty (R)* | Amy Klobuchar (D) | Al Franken (D) | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Colorado | 54 | 45 | 9 | Bill Ritter (D)* | Mark Udall (D) | Michael Bennet (D)* | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| New Hampshire | 54 | 45 | 9 | John Lynch (D)* | Judd Gregg (R)* | Jeanne Shaheen (D) | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Virginia | 53 | 46 | 7 | Tim Kaine (D)* | Jim Webb (D) | Mark Warner (D) | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Ohio | 51 | 47 | 4 | Ted Strickland (D)* | George Voinovich (R)* | Sherrod Brown (D) | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| Florida | 51 | 48 | 3 | Charlie Crist (R)* | Bill Nelson (D) | Mel Martinez (R)* | 10 | 15 | -5 |
| Indiana | 50 | 49 | 1 | Mitchell Daniels (R) | Dick Lugar (R) | Evan Bayh (D)* | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 50 | 49 | 1 | Beverly Perdue (D) | Richard Burr (R)* | Kay Hagan (D) | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Missouri | 48 | 49 | -1 | Jay Nixon (D) | Kit Bond (R)* | Claire McCaskill (D) | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| Montana | 47 | 50 | -3 | Brian Schweitzer (D) | Max Baucus (D) | Jon Tester (D) | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Georgia | 47 | 52 | -5 | Sonny Perdue (R)* | Saxby Chambliss (R) | Johnny Isakson (R)* | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| North Dakota | 45 | 53 | -8 | John Hoeven (R) | Kent Conrad (D) | Byron Dorgan (D)* | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| South Dakota | 45 | 53 | -8 | Mike Rounds (R)* | Tim Johnson (D) | John Thune (R)* | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Arizona | 45 | 54 | -9 | Jan Brewer(R)* | John McCain (R)* | Jon Kyl (R) | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| South Carolina | 45 | 54 | -9 | Mark Sanford (R)* | Lindsey Graham (R) | Jim DeMint (R)* | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| Texas | 44 | 55 | -11 | Rick Perry (R)* | Kay Hutchison (R) | John Cornyn (R) | 12 | 20 | -8 |
| Mississippi | 43 | 56 | -13 | Haley Barbour (R) | Thad Cochran (R) | Roger Wicker (R) | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| West Virginia | 43 | 56 | -13 | Joe Manchin III (D) | Robert Byrd (D) | Jay Rockefeller (D) | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Kansas | 42 | 57 | -15 | Mark Parkinson (D)* | Sam Brownback (R) | Pat Roberts (R) | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| Nebraska | 42 | 57 | -15 | David Heineman (R)* | Ben Nelson (D) | Mike Johanns (R) | 0 | 3 | -3 |
| Tennessee | 42 | 57 | -15 | Phil Bredesen (D)* | Lamar Alexander (R) | Bob Corker (R) | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 41 | 57 | -16 | Steve Beshear (D) | Mitch McConnell (R) | Jim Bunning (R)* | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| Louisiana | 40 | 59 | -19 | Bobby Jindal (R) | Mary Landrieu (D) | David Vitter (R)* | 1 | 6 | -5 |
| Arkansas | 39 | 59 | -20 | Mike Beebe (D)* | Blanche Lincoln (D)* | Mark Pryor (D) | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Alabama | 39 | 60 | -21 | Robert Riley (R)* | Richard Shelby (R)* | Jeff Sessions (R) | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| Alaska | 38 | 59 | -21 | Sarah Palin (R)* | Lisa Murkowski (R)* | Mark Begich (D) | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Idaho | 36 | 62 | -26 | Butch Otter (R)* | James Risch (R) | Michael Crapo (R)* | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Utah | 34 | 63 | -29 | Gary Herbert (R) | Orrin Hatch (R) | Robert Bennett (R)* | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Oklahoma | 34 | 66 | -32 | Brad Henry (D)* | James Inhofe (R) | Tom Coburn (R)* | 1 | 4 | -3 |
| Wyoming | 33 | 65 | -32 | Dave Freudenthal (D)* | Michael Enzi (R) | John Barrasso (R) | 0 | 1 | -1 |
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