News from the Votemaster

All the Metrics Point to an Obama Win

Back in 2007, when practically every pundit saw Rudy Giuliani as the inevitable Republican nominee, political guru Charlie Cook said he (Cook) was more likely to win the Tour de France than the Republicans were to nominate a thrice-married, gay-friendly, Catholic New Yorker. Cook didn't win the Tour de France and Giuliani didn't win the nomination, so Cook gets a certain amount of credit. Now he says there are six factors pointing to an Obama win in two weeks:

1. No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
2. Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
3. The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
4. Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
5. There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
6. Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.

Election Analysis by Pollster Steve Lombardo

Pollster Steve Lombardo also has a nice analysis of where the presidential election stands now. His major points: (1) Obama won the debates big time, (2) Obama is playing offense all over the map while McCain is playing defense, (3) Obama's massive fundraising is a huge advantage, and (4) more people identify as Democrats than as Republicans by an 8% margin. None of these factors look good for McCain.

McCain is Dragging Down Republican Candidates

Stu Rothenberg, another political analyst, wrote a column saying that not only does McCain appear to have no coattails, he appears to be badly hurting downticket Republicans and could end up causing a number of them to go down to defeat. While the effect is biggest in swing districts, it is also causing problems in relatively solid Republican districts.

Obama Had $134 Million at the Start of October

On the strength of his $150 million haul in September, despite heavy spending that month, Obama had $134 million in the bank at the start of October. McCain had $47 million. However, the DNC had only $27 million to the RNC's $77 million. Still, this gives Obama a huge edge. In addition, Obama is continuing to pull in $5 million a day during October, which will increase his financial edge even more during the final two weeks.

RNC Paid for $150,000 for Palin's Clothes

Politico went through the financial report the RNC just filed with the FEC and discovered that the Republican National Committee has spent $150,000 for clothes and accessories for Sarah Palin since she was tapped for the VP slot in late August. One shopping trip to Neiman Marcus cost them $75,062.63, for example. They also spent over $4700 on her hair and makeup. Remember how the Republicans howled at John Edwards' $400 haircut (which included a house call by the barber)? Google for: Edwards "$400 haircut" and you'll get 27,000 hits. That was major news for a week. That aside, a far more damaging effect of this revelation is that Palin keeps saying she is just an ordinary small-town hockey mom. It is likely that if Joe-the-plumber's wife were to rack up $150,000 in clothing expenses in a single month, Joe might ask how she was planning to pay the credit card bill since the median annual salary for plumbers is $37,514. Palin is already being ridiculed all over the place, and this provides more fodder for the comics.

State of the Senate Races

Below is a capsule summary of each of the 35 Senate races this year. Republicans are defending 23 seats and Democrats are defending only 12. Furthermore, five incumbent Republicans have chosen to retire while every incumbent Democrat is running and all of them are expected to be reelected, mostly by wide margins.

Democrats are almost certain to pick up seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico and are favored to pick up Alaska as well unless indicted senator Ted Stevens is acquitted of all seven felony charges for which he is now on trial. Races in Kentucky, Minnesota, Oregon, Georgia, and North Carolina could go either way. The Republican Roger Wicker has a small lead in Mississippi-B, but in a big Democratic wave, he could lose. The Democrats will probably end up with 57-60 seats in the Senate. In the table below, the polling data is for the most recent poll and colored accordingly (unlike the Senate map which averages the past week of polls). There is no data for Mississippi-A and Wyoming-A, but the Republican incumbents are certain winners. Asterisks denote the incumbent party.

Obama Continues to Lead Nationally

Obama leads in all 10 national polls today. His average lead is 7.6%.

Today's Polls

We have 16 presidential polls today. Obama continues to lead in Colorado (Obama +5) and Pennsylvania (Obama +10). North Carolina and Nevada are still tied. North Carolina is quite the cliffhanger, with the presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial races all essentially tied. McCain is hanging onto West Virginia (McCain +9), which seemed to be slipping for a while.

The scale of the state polling graphs has now been expanded to start Oct. 1. If you click on a state on the map (or a state name below), you will get two 2008 graphs: one for the whole year and one for only October, so you can better see the latest polls.

In the Senate, Alaska is tied as Stevens has apparently made a comeback. Of course, the verdict of his trial, possibly as early as this week, could make a huge difference. If he is convicted, it is hard to see the people of Alaska electing a convicted criminal. If he is acquitted of all charges, he might pull off an upset. Kentucky is an exact tie, with Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and challenger Bruce Lunsford (D) both at 48%. This race wasn't supposed to be close. Neither was North Carolina, which is also essentially a tie, with Kay Hagan (D) just one point ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC).

We also have polls for the at-large House races in Alaska and Wyoming. Ethan Berkowitz (D) has a solid lead in Alaska and Cynthia Lummis has an almost equally solid lead in Wyoming.