News from the Votemaster

McCain Concedes Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico

CNN is reporting that McCain is making those tough decisions that politicians love to talk about. According to CNN, McCain is abandoning Colorado (9 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs) and New Mexico (5 Evs). If Obama wins these three he gets 21 EVs. Add these to the 252 EVs Kerry won and he has 273 and becomes President. McCain's strategy at this point is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and--get this--Pennsylvania. The first six are arguably swing states, but our three-poll average puts Obama 12 points ahead in Pennsylvania. McCain is effectively betting the farm on a state which looks like an Obama landslide. It is a strange choice. Colorado looks a lot easier than Pennsylvania. James Carville once famously said that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama sandwiched in between. Maybe McCain is going to go all out to win the white working class men in the Alabama section of Pennsylvania. McCain can't possibly do it on the economy. What's left? Maybe run against the Wright/Ayers ticket? Any way you look at it, this has to be a desperation move.

Bernanke Endorses Democratic Stimulus Plan

After Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama Sunday, it looked like things couldn't get any worse for John McCain on the endorsement score. Well, they just did. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has endorsed the economic stimulus plan supported by Obama and the Democrats. Having the Fed chairman say that Obama and the Democrats have the right ideas on the economy will surely be helpful to Obama even if he wasn't named explicitly. President Bush and the Republicans generally oppose the Democratic plan.

Armies of Lawyers Are Ready to Roll

With Florida 2000 never far from the surface, both sides are ready for one or more sequels. Obama, in particular, has assembled what is de facto the nation's largest law firm, with 5000 lawyers ready to sue at the drop of a ballot. The challenges have already started, with multiple voter-registration cases in the courts right now. It makes one pine for the old days when elections were decided by the voters rather than by judges, as in 2000 and very possibly in 2008.

Obama Cancels Rallies to Visit Sick Grandmother

Barack Obama has canceled all his rallies and is flying to Hawaii to visit his seriously ill grandmother, rumored to be close to death. From a political standpoint, missing a few rallies doesn't mean much when you have just raised $150 million. The TV ads will continue to run everywhere. Furthermore, even without saying a word, the message that Obama's family is more important to him than his campaign comes through loud and clear to many "family values" voters and the pundits will surely amplify it. Finally, while everyone talks about him as the "black candidate" he is actually half black. The grandmother he is visiting is completely white as was his mother. This will probably come as a surprise to many voters. Finally, Michelle and other surrogates will continue campaigning. The campaign isn't being suspended. This was a personal decision on Obama's part and shows his priorities.

Rundown of Hot House Races

The Hot House Races page currently lists 62 races that are or should be competitive. In some cases they are being fiercely contested, but in other cases, the nonincumbent party picked a real turkey as challenger so what should have been a fierce battle will end up being a rout. For example, Joe Courtney (D-CT) is a freshman who won by only 89 votes in 2006. In principle, this should be a very competitive race, but the PVI of the district and the quality of the challenger suggest that Courtney will win easily. Another factor is fundraising. Sometimes a candidate has raised far more or far less money than expected. Also, sometimes special circumstances pop up, like scandals, that affect the race. In more than a dozen races, the black turnout could help white Democrats unseat incumbent Republicans.

Here are the 62 races with the most recent poll (when there has been a poll) and subjective notes. The candidate of the incumbent party is marked with an asterisk. In races where the poll says the Democrat is ahead, the line is colored blue. When the Republican is ahead it is red. The other races are in beige. The order of the races is most Republican PVI (Partisan Voting Index) to most Democratic PVI. For the full list of all House polls, click here.

An Angry Ralph Nader Is Still at It

Remember Ralph Nader? He is still out there campaigning. This is his fifth run, so he needs only five more to break Harold Stassen's record for the most abortive runs for the presidency. When people blame him for Florida 2000 and all the things George Bush has done, he says the people who are really responsible for creating the problem are George H.W. Bush and Barbara Bush.

Obama Leads in 10 National Polls

We have 10 national polls today and Obama leads in all of them with leads ranging from 4 points to 9 points. His average lead is 6.2%.

Today's Polls

We have 13 presidential polls today. Obama continues to lead in Colorado, which is why McCain may be abandoning the state. Similarly, Obama continues to maintain a solid lead in Virginia, a must-win state for McCain. In contrast, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri are tightening and could go either way.

We also have five Senate polls. Nothing unexpected here.

We also have three House polls. One of them is a real shocker, if true. In ID-01, Walt Minnick is leading incumbent Bill Sali (R). Nobody expected this. It seems very improbable. In CT-04 it is a dead heat as Democrat Jim Himes tries to knock off the last New England Republican in the House, Chris Shays.