Jul. 31
Strong Dem (146)
Weak Dem (37)
Barely Dem (69)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (37)
Weak GOP (66)
Strong GOP (183)
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today:
(None)
Dem pickups (vs. 2004):
(None)
GOP pickups (vs. 2004):
(None)
News from the Votemaster
Here is an update on the primary polling.
With 138 state polls so far, a picture is beginning to emerge. On the Democratic
side, Hillary Clinton has a wide lead just about everywhere except Iowa, where
John Edwards has a narrow lead. If Edwards manages to win big in Iowa, he might
shake things up, but barring that or a surprising event, Hillary is going to
tough to stop.
If we compare the average of all
the polls for July and April we get the following, with the April data in parentheses.
Hillary Clinton 36% (34%)
Barack Obama 23% (20%)
John Edwards 12% (17%)
On the Republican side, the picture is murkier. For the first time I have now
included former lobbyist, senator, and actor, Fred Thompson because it is
increasingly clear he is a candidate, despite his not having announced yet.
But he is doing all the things candidates do: raising money, hiring staff,
building an organization. In contrast, Newt Gingrich and Al Gore are doing none
of these, and look increasingly like noncandidates, although both might be
draftable at a deadlocked convention.
If we compare July and April for the Republicans, we get
Rudy Giuliani 27% (31%)
Fred Thompson 18% (-)
John McCain 14% (21%)
Mitt Romney 14% (9%)
Here it is clear that Giuliani is dropping, McCain is crashing, and Romney is
rising (especially in Iowa and New Hampshire), but the big story is Thompson,
who is now second even though he is not in the race yet, and only 9% behind
front runner Giuliani. When Thompson enters and starts hitting Giuliani hard
on his liberal views on everything, he will probably move into the #1 slot.
It is unlikely Thompson will hit Giuliani on his marital track record because
this would open the way for Romney (the only Republican with one wife) to
go after Thompson on this score (shotgun wedding to pregnant girlfriend in
high school, divorce, marriage to woman 24 years his junior). Thompson is
already making the point that he is the only top-tier conservative in the race.
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) are certainly
conservative, but neither one seems to have caught the fancy of the media,
whereas Thompson is a rising star.
The polling data is available in
Excel
and
.csv format
Alabama
Capital Survey
July 19
33%
29%
9%
20%
11%
5%
34%
Alabama
Capital Survey
May 1
37%
21%
9%
29%
23%
7%
Alabama
U. of South Alabama
Apr. 19
33%
25%
12%
28%
23%
3%
Alabama
Capital Survey
Mar. 6
35%
19%
9%
28%
23%
3%
Alabama
ARG
Feb. 13
44%
13%
11%
31%
19%
3%
Alabama
Capital Survey
Jan. 17
27%
14%
19%
20%
24%
3%
Arizona
ARG
July 26
39%
25%
8%
23%
32%
7%
15%
Arizona
Rocky Mtn Poll
May 29
26%
22%
7%
20%
35%
7%
Arizona
Arizona State U.
Apr. 22
25%
20%
18%
27%
32%
11%
Arizona
Rocky Mtn Poll
Mar. 21
27%
20%
9%
25%
34%
11%
Arizona
Arizona State U.
Feb. 25
28%
24%
14%
25%
44%
6%
Arizona
ARG
Feb. 13
33%
24%
13%
21%
45%
2%
Arizona
Rocky Mtn Poll
Jan. 22
32%
15%
18%
13%
40%
11%
Arkansas
ARG
Mar. 19
49%
16%
12%
12%
21%
4%
California
Public Policy Inst.
June 19
41%
25%
12%
31%
16%
13%
13%
California
ARG
May 8
37%
28%
15%
27%
24%
11%
California
Field Poll
Mar. 31
41%
28%
13%
36%
24%
7%
California
SurveyUSA
Mar. 6
44%
31%
10%
41%
23%
8%
California
Datamar
Feb. 15
34%
24%
16%
41%
17%
11%
California
ARG
Jan. 17
36%
33%
6%
33%
18%
3%
Colorado
ARG
July 18
39%
22%
10%
35%
11%
9%
20%
Colorado
ARG
Apr. 2
34%
23%
17%
25%
23%
9%
Connecticut
Quinnipiac U.
May 7
28%
20%
8%
36%
15%
9%
Connecticut
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 12
33%
21%
5%
43%
27%
4%
Connecticut
ARG
Feb. 6
40%
8%
10%
32%
21%
14%
Delaware
Fairleigh Dickinson U.
Feb. 25
34%
19%
10%
Florida
Mason-Dixon
July 26
31%
17%
12%
21%
11%
7%
18%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
July 16
36%
14%
9%
30%
10%
9%
18%
Florida
ARG
July 15
45%
25%
9%
33%
7%
12%
27%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
June 25
43%
16%
11%
29%
13%
9%
29%
Florida
Zogby
June 6
36%
16%
11%
31%
12%
12%
10%
Florida
Schroth/Polling Co.
May 9
42%
19%
12%
29%
15%
14%
Florida
ARG
May 8
45%
17%
15%
31%
18%
11%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 24
36%
13%
11%
38%
15%
7%
Florida
U. of North Florida
Apr. 13
35%
20%
9%
31%
14%
6%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 27
36%
13%
11%
35%
15%
5%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 4
38%
13%
6%
38%
18%
6%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 4
49%
13%
7%
29%
23%
6%
Florida
ARG
Jan. 9
30%
14%
15%
30%
15%
2%
Idaho
Greg Smith
July 13
31%
33%
15%
20%
14%
38%
18%
Illinois
ARG
July 9
33%
37%
10%
30%
12%
11%
21%
Illinois
ARG
Jan. 14
30%
36%
5%
33%
24%
12%
Iowa
Research 2000
July 25
22%
16%
27%
13%
10%
25%
14%
Iowa
ARG
June 30
32%
13%
29%
18%
13%
25%
14%
Iowa
Mason-Dixon
June 16
22%
18%
21%
15%
6%
25%
17%
Iowa
Selzer
May 16
21%
23%
29%
17%
18%
30%
Iowa
Research 2000
May 15
28%
22%
26%
17%
18%
16%
Iowa
Zogby
May 15
24%
22%
26%
16%
18%
17%
Iowa
ARG
Apr. 30
23%
19%
27%
19%
26%
14%
Iowa
U. of Iowa
Mar. 31
28%
19%
34%
21%
20%
17%
Iowa
Zogby
Mar. 26
25%
23%
27%
25%
19%
11%
Iowa
ARG
Mar. 23
34%
16%
33%
29%
29%
10%
Iowa
Zogby
Feb. 9
24%
24%
18%
19%
17%
5%
Iowa
Zogby
Jan. 16
16%
27%
17%
19%
17%
5%
Kansas
Research 2000
May 23
27%
22%
21%
13%
13%
17%
Maine
Critical Insights
Apr. 27
39%
22%
16%
24%
21%
12%
Maine
ARG
Feb. 6
41%
14%
17%
33%
22%
13%
Massachusetts
Suffolk U.
Apr. 15
32%
18%
19%
Massachusetts
ARG
Feb. 6
35%
24%
19%
29%
30%
7%
Michigan
EPIC/MRA
June 13
38%
25%
14%
19%
22%
24%
8%
Michigan
ARG
May 7
38%
25%
14%
19%
22%
24%
Michigan
EPIC/MRA
Mar. 18
45%
29%
16%
26%
30%
21%
Michigan
ARG
Mar. 4
35%
30%
14%
30%
35%
Michigan
EPIC/MRA
Feb. 4
49%
20%
8%
32%
28%
8%
Michigan
ARG
Jan. 7
30%
30%
17%
34%
24%
10%
Missouri
ARG
Jan. 9
30%
18%
17%
18%
31%
2%
Nevada
Mason-Dixon
June 22
39%
17%
12%
17%
8%
20%
25%
Nevada
ARG
June 19
40%
16%
16%
21%
16%
23%
16%
Nevada
Mason-Dixon
May 1
37%
12%
13%
12%
19%
15%
Nevada
Zogby
Apr. 12
35%
21%
15%
37%
15%
15%
Nevada
Research 2000
Mar. 8
32%
20%
11%
38%
18%
4%
New Hampshire
U. of New Hampshire
July 17
36%
27%
9%
20%
12%
34%
13%
New Hampshire
Research 2000
July 11
33%
25%
15%
21%
18%
28%
11%
New Hampshire
ARG
June 30
34%
25%
11%
19%
21%
27%
10%
New Hampshire
Suffolk U.
June 24
37%
19%
9%
22%
13%
26%
13%
New Hampshire
Mason-Dixon
June 7
26%
21%
18%
15%
16%
27%
12%
New Hampshire
Franklin Pierce Coll.
June 6
41%
17%
15%
18%
17%
27%
9%
New Hampshire
Zogby
May 16
28%
26%
15%
19%
19%
35%
New Hampshire
ARG
Apr. 29
37%
14%
26%
17%
29%
24%
New Hampshire
Zogby
Apr. 3
29%
23%
23%
19%
25%
25%
New Hampshire
U. of New Hampshire
Apr. 3
27%
20%
21%
29%
29%
17%
New Hampshire
ARG
Mar. 23
37%
23%
20%
19%
23%
17%
New Hampshire
Franklin Pierce Coll.
Mar. 12
32%
25%
16%
28%
29%
22%
New Hampshire
Suffolk U.
Feb. 28
28%
26%
17%
37%
27%
17%
New Hampshire
Zogby/UNH
Feb. 8
27%
23%
13%
27%
28%
13%
New Hampshire
Zogby
Jan. 17
19%
19%
23%
20%
26%
13%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U.
July 2
46%
19%
8%
48%
12%
7%
10%
New Jersey
Monmouth U.
Apr. 16
41%
22%
13%
49%
19%
6%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 16
38%
16%
9%
49%
18%
6%
New Jersey
Fairleigh Dickinson U.
Mar. 4
46%
18%
10%
59%
20%
6%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 25
41%
19%
5%
58%
15%
2%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U.
Jan. 22
30%
8%
16%
39%
21%
5%
New Mexico
ARG
Jan. 13
22%
17%
12%
38%
20%
7%
New York
Siena Coll.
July 28
48%
14%
7%
40%
13%
7%
11%
New York
Quinnipiac U.
June 17
44%
14%
6%
46%
8%
3%
14%
New York
Siena Coll.
Apr. 20
39%
17%
11%
47%
16%
8%
New York
Blum+Weprin
Apr. 7
49%
17%
11%
56%
15%
5%
New York
ARG
Apr. 2
41%
20%
16%
50%
14%
7%
New York
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 2
44%
14%
9%
52%
13%
6%
New York
Siena Coll.
Mar. 22
43%
11%
7%
31%
20%
6%
New York
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 11
47%
16%
7%
51%
17%
1%
North Carolina
Elon U.
Apr. 19
20%
20%
26%
32%
22%
10%
North Carolina
ARG
Jan. 15
26%
19%
30%
34%
26%
2%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
July 9
35%
17%
13%
24%
14%
8%
18%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
June 25
46%
14%
15%
26%
16%
8%
18%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
May 13
38%
19%
11%
23%
17%
11%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 24
37%
14%
17%
23%
21%
6%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 19
32%
22%
11%
31%
20%
6%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 4
32%
19%
13%
35%
18%
3%
Ohio
U. of Akron
Feb. 21
42%
16%
17%
36%
28%
6%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
Jan. 28
38%
11%
13%
30%
22%
4%
Oklahoma
Sooner
Apr. 30
29%
13%
29%
32%
23%
6%
Oklahoma
ARG
Feb. 13
40%
15%
16%
37%
21%
2%
Oregon
Riley Research
Mar. 13
31%
21%
8%
33%
20%
5%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
June 25
38%
22%
10%
29%
16%
4%
15%
Pennsylvania
Franklin and Marshall
June 4
40%
18%
21%
29%
29%
12%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 24
36%
14%
13%
29%
17%
5%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 25
36%
17%
9%
33%
18%
5%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 4
29%
18%
11%
43%
17%
6%
Pennsylvania
Susquehanna
Feb. 20
42%
16%
11%
37%
29%
6%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 5
37%
11%
11%
30%
20%
4%
Pennsylvania
ARG
Jan. 8
32%
12%
13%
35%
25%
1%
Rhode Island
Brown U.
Jan. 27
33%
8%
15%
South Carolina
Opinion Research
July 18
27%
27%
17%
30%
21%
6%
18%
South Carolina
ARG
June 30
37%
22%
21%
22%
23%
8%
19%
South Carolina
Mason-Dixon
June 15
25%
34%
12%
21%
7%
11%
25%
South Carolina
Winthrop U.
May 27
29%
21%
11%
19%
14%
12%
6%
South Carolina
ARG
Apr. 30
36%
24%
18%
23%
36%
6%
South Carolina
Hamilton/McHenry
Apr. 19
31%
27%
16%
15%
24%
10%
South Carolina
Zogby
Apr. 17
33%
26%
21%
19%
22%
10%
South Carolina
ARG
Feb. 27
36%
25%
20%
29%
35%
5%
Texas
U. of Texas
May 7
33%
21%
8%
23%
27%
6%
11%
Texas
ARG
Mar. 19
34%
32%
11%
30%
20%
13%
Utah
ARG
Feb. 13
31%
18%
9%
13%
21%
40%
Vermont
ARG
Feb. 6
37%
19%
14%
29%
30%
7%
West Virginia
ARG
Apr. 2
37%
22%
19%
29%
33%
8%
Wisconsin
St. Norbert Coll.
Apr. 17
33%
30%
18%
26%
24%
9%
This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous
elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when
there is interesting news about the 2008 races.
Preview of the 2008 races:
President
Senate
House
This map shows the current governors. Put your mouse on a state for more information.
This map shows the current Senate. Put your mouse on a state for more information.
This map shows the current House. Put your mouse on a state for more information.
-- The Votemaster