| Jul. 12 |  |
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| Presidential polls today: | (None) |  |
| Dem pickups (vs. 2004): | (None) | |
| GOP pickups (vs. 2004): | (None) |
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I have been away recently and there has been little news lately. Summers tend to be full of BBQs and hot dogs rather rather than polls. When the second quarter financial reports are published, I'll put them here. I have been updating the Senate page regularly when there is news on that front.
Here are the primary polls. An interesting development is the rise of Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire and the decline of John McCain in multiple states. In the most recent Iowa poll, Romney is polling at 25% and McCain is polling at a miserable 6%. In New Hampshire, a Suffolk University poll puts Romney at 26% and McCain at 13%. Romney victories in these states would not guarantee him the nomination, but coming in at 13% and worse in these key states would certainly finish off McCain, who is already very unpopular with the Republican base for his support of the immgration bill, which was defeated for a second time today. If and when Fred Thompson enters the race, we will start adding him to the polls too. He could shake things up enormously.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is edging up on John Edwards in Iowa, but otherwise nothing much has changed.
A potentially significant development in the Senate is a poll from ARG about the New Hampshire Senate race. If former governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) were to enter the race against incumbent Sen. John Sununu (R), she would crush him, 57% to 29% according to an ARG poll released today. Coming after the Democrats sweep of virtually everything in 2006 in New Hampshire (governor, both House seats, and both houses of the state legislature), this poll has to be keeping Sununu up nights. DSCC chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has been lobbying Shaheen mightily to get her to run.
Rumors that Sen. John Warner (R-VA) is going to retire rather than run again are getting stronger. This has to be worrisome to NRSC chairman Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) because while Warner is a shoo-in for reelection if he runs, the seat has to be rated a tossup if he retires, and if former Virginia governor Mark Warner (D) (no relation) runs, he is probably the favorite, in part because Mark Warner has already demonstrated that he can win statewide office in Virginia and in part because Democrats have won the most recent statewide races there (Jim Webb to the Senate in 2006 and Tim Kaine to the governorship in 2005). If the Republicans lose the open seat in Colorado, an open seat in Virginia, and Sununu goes down to defeat in New Hampshire, the Republicans have virtually no chance of retaking the Senate because only two Democrats are in danger, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD).
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Alabama | U. of South Alabama | Apr. 19 | 33% | 25% | 12% | 28% | 23% | 3% |
| Alabama | Capital Survey | Mar. 6 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 28% | 23% | 3% |
| Alabama | ARG | Feb. 13 | 44% | 13% | 11% | 31% | 19% | 3% |
| Alabama | Capital Survey | Jan. 17 | 27% | 14% | 19% | 20% | 24% | 3% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Arizona | Rocky Mtn Poll | May 29 | 26% | 22% | 7% | 20% | 35% | 7% |
| Arizona | Arizona State U. | Apr. 22 | 25% | 20% | 18% | 27% | 32% | 11% |
| Arizona | Rocky Mtn Poll | Mar. 21 | 27% | 20% | 9% | 25% | 34% | 11% |
| Arizona | Arizona State U. | Feb. 25 | 28% | 24% | 14% | 25% | 44% | 6% |
| Arizona | ARG | Feb. 13 | 33% | 24% | 13% | 21% | 45% | 2% |
| Arizona | Rocky Mtn Poll | Jan. 22 | 32% | 15% | 18% | 13% | 40% | 11% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Arkansas | ARG | Mar. 23 | 49% | 16% | 12% | 12% | 21% | 4% |
| Arkansas | ARG | Mar. 19 | 49% | 16% | 12% | 12% | 21% | 4% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| California | San Jose State U. | June 22 | 37% | 15% | 15% | 25% | 14% | 5% |
| California | Public Policy Inst. | June 19 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 31% | 16% | 13% |
| California | ARG | May 8 | 37% | 28% | 15% | 27% | 24% | 11% |
| California | Field Poll | Mar. 31 | 41% | 28% | 13% | 36% | 24% | 7% |
| California | SurveyUSA | Mar. 6 | 44% | 31% | 10% | 41% | 23% | 8% |
| California | Datamar | Feb. 15 | 34% | 24% | 16% | 41% | 17% | 11% |
| California | ARG | Jan. 17 | 36% | 33% | 6% | 33% | 18% | 3% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Colorado | ARG | Apr. 2 | 34% | 23% | 17% | 25% | 23% | 9% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Connecticut | Quinnipiac U. | May 7 | 28% | 20% | 8% | 36% | 15% | 9% |
| Connecticut | Quinnipiac U. | Feb. 12 | 33% | 21% | 5% | 43% | 27% | 4% |
| Connecticut | ARG | Feb. 6 | 40% | 8% | 10% | 32% | 21% | 14% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Delaware | FDU | Feb. 25 | 34% | 19% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Florida | Quinnipiac U. | June 25 | 43% | 16% | 11% | 29% | 13% | 8% |
| Florida | Zogby | June 6 | 36% | 16% | 11% | 31% | 12% | 12% |
| Florida | Quinnipiac U. | June 4 | 34% | 16% | 11% | 31% | 10% | 8% |
| Florida | Schroth/Polling Co. | May 9 | 42% | 19% | 12% | 29% | 15% | 14% |
| Florida | ARG | May 8 | 45% | 17% | 15% | 31% | 18% | 11% |
| Florida | Quinnipiac U. | Apr. 24 | 36% | 13% | 11% | 38% | 15% | 7% |
| Florida | U. of North Florida | Apr. 13 | 35% | 20% | 9% | 31% | 14% | 6% |
| Florida | Quinnipiac U. | Mar. 27 | 36% | 13% | 11% | 35% | 15% | 5% |
| Florida | Quinnipiac U. | Mar. 4 | 38% | 13% | 6% | 38% | 18% | 6% |
| Florida | Quinnipiac U. | Feb. 4 | 49% | 13% | 7% | 29% | 23% | 6% |
| Florida | ARG | Jan. 9 | 30% | 14% | 15% | 30% | 15% | 2% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Illinois | ARG | Jan. 14 | 30% | 36% | 5% | 33% | 24% | 12% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Iowa | Mason-Dixon | June 16 | 22% | 18% | 21% | 15% | 6% | 25% |
| Iowa | ARG | May 27 | 31% | 11% | 25% | 23% | 25% | 16% |
| Iowa | Selzer | May 16 | 21% | 23% | 29% | 17% | 18% | 30% |
| Iowa | Research 2000 | May 15 | 28% | 22% | 26% | 17% | 18% | 16% |
| Iowa | Zogby | May 15 | 24% | 22% | 26% | 16% | 18% | 17% |
| Iowa | ARG | Apr. 30 | 23% | 19% | 27% | 19% | 26% | 14% |
| Iowa | U. of Iowa | Mar. 31 | 28% | 19% | 34% | 21% | 20% | 17% |
| Iowa | Zogby | Mar. 26 | 25% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 19% | 11% |
| Iowa | ARG | Mar. 23 | 34% | 16% | 33% | 29% | 29% | 10% |
| Iowa | ARG | Mar. 22 | 34% | 33% | 16% | 29% | 29% | 10% |
| Iowa | Zogby | Feb. 9 | 24% | 24% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 5% |
| Iowa | Zogby | Jan. 16 | 16% | 27% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 5% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Kansas | Research 2000 | May 23 | 27% | 22% | 21% | 13% | 13% | 17% |
| Kansas | Research 2000 | May 23 | 27% | 22% | 21% | 13% | 13% | 17% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Maine | Critical Insights | Apr. 27 | 39% | 22% | 16% | 24% | 21% | 12% |
| Maine | ARG | Feb. 6 | 41% | 14% | 17% | 33% | 22% | 13% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Massachusetts | Suffolk U. | Apr. 15 | 32% | 18% | 19% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Massachusetts | ARG | Feb. 6 | 35% | 24% | 19% | 29% | 30% | 7% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Michigan | ARG | May 7 | 38% | 25% | 14% | 19% | 22% | 24% |
| Michigan | EPIC/MRA | Mar. 18 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 26% | 30% | 21% |
| Michigan | ARG | Mar. 4 | 35% | 30% | 14% | 30% | 35% | 0% |
| Michigan | EPIC/MRA | Feb. 4 | 49% | 20% | 8% | 32% | 28% | 8% |
| Michigan | ARG | Jan. 7 | 30% | 30% | 17% | 34% | 24% | 10% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Missouri | ARG | Jan. 9 | 30% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 31% | 2% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Nevada | Mason-Dixon | June 22 | 39% | 17% | 12% | 17% | 8% | 20% |
| Nevada | ARG | June 19 | 40% | 16% | 16% | 21% | 16% | 23% |
| Nevada | Mason-Dixon | May 1 | 37% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 19% | 15% |
| Nevada | Zogby | Apr. 12 | 35% | 21% | 15% | 37% | 15% | 15% |
| Nevada | Research 2000 | Mar. 8 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 38% | 18% | 4% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| New Hampshire | Suffolk U. | June 24 | 37% | 19% | 9% | 22% | 13% | 26% |
| New Hampshire | U of New Hampshire | June 11 | 36% | 22% | 12% | 22% | 20% | 29% |
| New Hampshire | Mason-Dixon | June 7 | 26% | 21% | 18% | 15% | 16% | 27% |
| New Hampshire | Franklin Pierce Coll. | June 6 | 41% | 17% | 15% | 20% | 18% | 30% |
| New Hampshire | ARG | May 27 | 34% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 30% | 23% |
| New Hampshire | Zogby | May 16 | 28% | 26% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 35% |
| New Hampshire | ARG | Apr. 29 | 37% | 14% | 26% | 17% | 29% | 24% |
| New Hampshire | Zogby | Apr. 3 | 29% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 25% | 25% |
| New Hampshire | U. of New Hampshire | Apr. 3 | 27% | 20% | 21% | 29% | 29% | 17% |
| New Hampshire | ARG | Mar. 23 | 37% | 23% | 20% | 19% | 23% | 17% |
| New Hampshire | Franklin Pierce Coll. | Mar. 12 | 32% | 25% | 16% | 28% | 29% | 22% |
| New Hampshire | Suffolk U. | Feb. 28 | 28% | 26% | 17% | 37% | 27% | 17% |
| New Hampshire | Zogby/UNH | Feb. 8 | 27% | 23% | 13% | 27% | 28% | 13% |
| New Hampshire | Zogby | Jan. 17 | 19% | 19% | 23% | 20% | 26% | 13% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| New Jersey | Monmouth U. | Apr. 16 | 41% | 22% | 13% | 49% | 19% | 6% |
| New Jersey | Quinnipiac U. | Apr. 16 | 38% | 16% | 9% | 49% | 18% | 6% |
| New Jersey | FDU | Mar. 4 | 46% | 18% | 10% | 59% | 20% | 6% |
| New Jersey | Quinnipiac U. | Feb. 25 | 41% | 19% | 5% | 58% | 15% | 2% |
| New Jersey | Quinnipiac U. | Jan. 22 | 30% | 8% | 16% | 39% | 21% | 5% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| New Mexico | ARG | Jan. 13 | 22% | 17% | 12% | 38% | 20% | 7% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| New York | Siena Coll. | June 21 | 43% | 11% | 9% | 48% | 13% | 6% |
| New York | Quinnipiac U. | June 17 | 44% | 14% | 6% | 46% | 8% | 3% |
| New York | Siena Coll. | May 25 | 42% | 13% | 7% | 50% | 12% | 7% |
| New York | Siena Coll. | Apr. 20 | 39% | 17% | 11% | 47% | 16% | 8% |
| New York | Blum+Weprin | Apr. 7 | 49% | 17% | 11% | 56% | 15% | 5% |
| New York | ARG | Apr. 2 | 41% | 20% | 16% | 50% | 14% | 7% |
| New York | Quinnipiac U. | Apr. 2 | 44% | 14% | 9% | 52% | 13% | 6% |
| New York | Siena Coll. | Mar. 22 | 43% | 11% | 7% | 31% | 20% | 6% |
| New York | Quinnipiac U. | Feb. 11 | 47% | 16% | 7% | 51% | 17% | 1% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| North Carolina | Elon U. | Apr. 19 | 20% | 20% | 26% | 32% | 22% | 10% |
| North Carolina | ARG | Jan. 15 | 26% | 19% | 30% | 34% | 26% | 2% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Ohio | Quinnipiac U. | June 25 | 46% | 14% | 15% | 26% | 16% | 8% |
| Ohio | Quinnipiac U. | May 13 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 23% | 17% | 11% |
| Ohio | Quinnipiac U. | Apr. 24 | 37% | 14% | 17% | 23% | 21% | 6% |
| Ohio | Quinnipiac U. | Mar. 19 | 32% | 22% | 11% | 31% | 20% | 6% |
| Ohio | Quinnipiac U. | Mar. 4 | 32% | 19% | 13% | 35% | 18% | 3% |
| Ohio | U. of Akron | Feb. 21 | 42% | 16% | 17% | 36% | 28% | 6% |
| Ohio | Quinnipiac U. | Jan. 28 | 38% | 11% | 13% | 30% | 22% | 4% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Oklahoma | Sooner | Apr. 30 | 29% | 13% | 29% | 32% | 23% | 6% |
| Oklahoma | ARG | Feb. 13 | 40% | 15% | 16% | 37% | 21% | 2% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Oregon | Riley Research | Mar. 13 | 31% | 21% | 8% | 33% | 20% | 5% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Pennsylvania | Quinnipiac U. | June 25 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 29% | 16% | 4% |
| Pennsylvania | Quinnipiac U. | Apr. 24 | 36% | 14% | 13% | 29% | 17% | 5% |
| Pennsylvania | Quinnipiac U. | Mar. 25 | 36% | 17% | 9% | 33% | 18% | 5% |
| Pennsylvania | Quinnipiac U. | Mar. 4 | 29% | 18% | 11% | 43% | 17% | 6% |
| Pennsylvania | Susquehanna | Feb. 20 | 42% | 16% | 11% | 37% | 29% | 6% |
| Pennsylvania | Quinnipiac U. | Feb. 5 | 37% | 11% | 11% | 30% | 20% | 4% |
| Pennsylvania | ARG | Jan. 8 | 32% | 12% | 13% | 35% | 25% | 1% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Rhode Island | Brown U. | Jan. 27 | 33% | 8% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| South Carolina | Mason-Dixon | June 15 | 25% | 34% | 12% | 21% | 7% | 11% |
| South Carolina | Winthrop U. | May 27 | 29% | 21% | 11% | 19% | 14% | 12% |
| South Carolina | ARG | May 26 | 34% | 18% | 30% | 23% | 32% | 10% |
| South Carolina | ARG | Apr. 30 | 36% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 36% | 6% |
| South Carolina | Hamilton/McHenry | Apr. 19 | 31% | 27% | 16% | 15% | 24% | 10% |
| South Carolina | Zogby | Apr. 17 | 33% | 26% | 21% | 19% | 22% | 10% |
| South Carolina | ARG | Feb. 27 | 36% | 25% | 20% | 29% | 35% | 5% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Texas | U. of Texas | May 7 | 33% | 21% | 8% | 23% | 27% | 6% |
| Texas | ARG | Mar. 19 | 34% | 32% | 11% | 30% | 20% | 13% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Utah | ARG | Feb. 13 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 13% | 21% | 40% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Vermont | ARG | Feb. 6 | 37% | 19% | 14% | 29% | 30% | 7% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| West Virginia | ARG | Apr. 2 | 37% | 22% | 19% | 29% | 33% | 8% |
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney |
| Wisconsin | St. Norbert Coll. | Apr. 17 | 33% | 30% | 18% | 26% | 24% | 9% |
This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.
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-- The Votemaster
