The Mercury News
has a story pointing out that the early leader for the Democratic presidential nomination often falters,
witness Ed Muskie in 1972, Ted Kennedy in 1980, Gary Hart in 1988, Mario Cuomo in 1992, and Joe Lieberman in 2004.
On the other hand, Republican front runners often get the nomination because the party quickly coalesces
behind the front runner, as it did behind George Bush in 2000.
However, this year is likely to be different. The Democrats have a strong field, with multiple candidates
acceptable to the core constituencies. The Republicans don't. In fact, today's New York Times has an
article in which
the Christian right is bemoaning the current situation. None of the front runners (McCain, Giuliani, Romney)
are acceptable to them and the candidates who are acceptable (Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter) don't seem to be
doing very well at this point.
Thus we have a very asymmetric situation. While a lot of Democrats dislike Hillary Clinton, if push comes to
shove and she is the nominee, most of them will hold their noses and vote for her. If Rudy Giuliani is the
Republican nominee, a large number of evangelicals are just not going to pull the lever or touch the little
square for a guy who has had three wives, various mistresses, and has been pro-abortion, pro-gay, and
pro-gun-control his whole life until this year. That's a bridge too far. A lot can still happen. Stay tuned.
This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous
elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when
there is interesting news about the 2008 races.
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