Feb. 25 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Kerry 252   Bush 286  
Senate: Dem 51   GOP 49  
House: Dem 233   GOP 202  

Senate map with polls
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report

strong Dem Strong Dem (146)
weak Dem Weak Dem (37)
barely Dem Barely Dem (69)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (37)
weak GOP Weak GOP (66)
strong GOP Strong GOP (183)
  Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  

News from the Votemaster

The Mercury News has a story pointing out that the early leader for the Democratic presidential nomination often falters, witness Ed Muskie in 1972, Ted Kennedy in 1980, Gary Hart in 1988, Mario Cuomo in 1992, and Joe Lieberman in 2004. On the other hand, Republican front runners often get the nomination because the party quickly coalesces behind the front runner, as it did behind George Bush in 2000.

However, this year is likely to be different. The Democrats have a strong field, with multiple candidates acceptable to the core constituencies. The Republicans don't. In fact, today's New York Times has an article in which the Christian right is bemoaning the current situation. None of the front runners (McCain, Giuliani, Romney) are acceptable to them and the candidates who are acceptable (Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter) don't seem to be doing very well at this point.

Thus we have a very asymmetric situation. While a lot of Democrats dislike Hillary Clinton, if push comes to shove and she is the nominee, most of them will hold their noses and vote for her. If Rudy Giuliani is the Republican nominee, a large number of evangelicals are just not going to pull the lever or touch the little square for a guy who has had three wives, various mistresses, and has been pro-abortion, pro-gay, and pro-gun-control his whole life until this year. That's a bridge too far. A lot can still happen. Stay tuned.

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

Preview of the 2008 races:           President       Senate       House      

This map shows the current governors. Put your mouse on a state for more information.

This map shows the current Senate. Put your mouse on a state for more information.

This map shows the current House. Put your mouse on a state for more information.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com

absentee ballot for overseas voter